I was down a little more than 10% on Thursday, an unacceptable/amazing feat, all thanks to my deer in headlights trading in SRS/FAZ. Currently, my year to date gains stand at about 12%, down from 25%.
My position is an awkward one, almost fully exposed to the long side, after a monster run up. Either, this market is as fake as silicon tits or we are in the beginning stages of a Godly bull market. I just can’t get myself to believe the latter, mainly due to the fact that silicon tits are everywhere.
However, I will admit, there have been significant fundamental improvements in the semiconductor space. Every report I read speaks of “inventory restocking.” Apparently, the economy is no longer falling off a cliff. Back in January and February, amidst the new great depression, business grinded to a halt. However, things are normalizing; and as a result, inventories need to be restocked.
Things are better now. Put a smiley face sticker on your car.
Who benefits?
Once again, I like the OSAT (outsource assembly and test subcontractors) space, mainly [[TQNT]], [[AMKR]], [[SPIL]] and [[TER]]. For the most part, I believe the share prices of [[TSM]] and [[UMC]] reflect an inventory rebuild. Therefore, I do not like them. Plus anyway, historically, they underperform the rest of the semis, when business is good.
Another names benefiting from a resurgence is [[RFMD]]. In short, their projected earnings have gone way up, thanks to the increase in cap utilization rates. Should the cap util rate get up to 85-90% (currently at 70%), I believe RFMD will double. The company is working on restructuring its debt and launching new products for the handset market. It’s definitely a name to keep an eye on.
Finally, I am waiting for an entry point into [[OVTI]]. Historically, the stock is cheap, trading less than 1x book. Also, their new iphone contract may ramp earnings, over the next few quarters.
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This is playing right into the bulls hands. A down day today then turnaround tuesday with a GS surprise to the upside. GS is running today and I expect it will try for the 140 level soon. I don’t see anything to stop the bulls at this point.
By the way I might start getting bullish on CRE even at this point. With magic abound why not watch rabbits being pulled out of hats.
that face says it all. were doomed. just a matter of time says the charts. they say once May hits it will be a may as well sell
I suspect that GS is cooking the books on the liabilities side.
Anyone else start smiling when you see Fly making his first post of the day? Its like having the kickass trading freind you always wanted but never had because your freinds are freaking retarded when it comes to anything market related.
FYI, Citigroup broke above their 3.25/share preferred-to-common-conversion ceiling today.
semis pulled back today, and it makes me want to look at them.
mudkips, i noticed that, too. i’m interested to see how this C scenario plays itself out.
shorting Skank of America(BAC) here..overextended…banks are still fucked on a stick. Long alittle gold here too..Oil is retarded.
Time to move to Tennessee/Texas/Nevada/Florida/Nah Hampshiah!
New York on a tax hike binge
With a $17.7 billion budget deficit, the state of New York plans to institute about 100 new taxes, fees, fines, surcharges, and penalties. It will boost taxes and fees on cell phone usage, fishing permits, health insurance, electric bills, bottled water, cigars, beer, wine, and the like.
In addition, New York city is raising its top income tax bracket to 12.62%, crushing California’s latest increase to 10.55%. As these articles demonstrate, the myriad of new taxes will damage both high income and low income earners.
Ironically, the American Legislative Exchange Council said that New York possessed the worst economic outlook of all 50 states, and that was before the explosion of new taxes.
(Links w/in article)
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Cash-N-Guns Says:
shorting Skank of America(BAC) here..overextended…banks are still fucked on a stick. Long alittle gold here too..Oil is retarded.
Your account will likely be fucked on a spindle this week. Why not wait till Friday close to make those moves?
Hey dont worry motherfvckers we’re coming in under budget!
Full steam (ing pile of shit) ahead!
Charlie…you could be right..so i assume you are loading up here…? if so why mate…stock just doubled..balance sheet still a turd in the punch bowl..
I don’t own any FEED. But I’m saying if you bought it in the mid 2s and still want to play aggressively (risk some of your gains), that is what I would do.
not selling FEED or GNK, fyi.
Everyone already knows that the banks will have stellar earnings this week, they will sell on the news.
BTW, I hope the PPT is printed in Chinese too, as much of their stuff I see touted.
Looks like the unwashed have blown the rape whistle on Market Raper!
Fly,
Silicon is what microchips are made of…silicone is what tits are made of. Please make a note of it. Thanks.
Gertrude Huntsacker
Silicon is what microchips are made of…silicone is what tits are made of.
Which is why Silicone Valley is a much happier place than where I now sit. Every time I go there, I can’t help but make motorboat sounds.
Egregious!!