Having big positions, long or short, during earnings season is a dice roll. If you were short [[WFC]] yesterday, your head is in a basket today. But the blade swings both ways. There will be huge gaps up and down, during the course of earnings season, currently underway.
The best approach, in my opinion, is to have both long and shorts. Naturally, if you are long one of the inverse etf’s of doom, there is no hedging that, sans an upside devil etf. Nonetheless, despite today’s run, I still believe, emphatically, the market is very close to overheating.
The signs are everywhere. When the lowest quality names are just taking the fuck off, leaving skid marks on the backs of unlucky shorts, it’s time to reevaluate the market. At the moment, I find myself saddled with a lot of small cap crap, which is not my investment style. Aside from [[DE]], [[GNK]] and [[ERX]], I am long [[AMKR]], [[EZCH]], [[GU]] (sold out), [[CIEN]], [[TER]], [[STAR]], [[PKD]] and [[LDK]] aka shit.
In addition, multiple micro-cap names are exploding to the upside. This is a sign of a tired market, not one breaking out. See, degenerate OTB guys love to trade small cappers and their whorish dollars are most abundant towards the end of bull runs.
Nevertheless, I do not have the balls to short stocks here, following today’s rout. Instead, I will look to sell the lesser quality names and rebuild my cash position to above 30%.
UPDATE: I sold 2,000 [[DE]] @ $37.40
UPDATE II: I sold out of [[EZCH]] @ $14.55
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the fly is refuse
PCR ripping. Too late for the contest.
Well, I got ape-raped on some speculative April WFC 10 puts – couldn’t resist when all the interest was up earlier this week. Beyond that, however, retail numbers were absolutely shitty today, which makes me only average into SRS more. No way this one doesn’t rip to the upside this year.
You suck. Cramer can buy and sell you!
DUG anyone?
Fly
You keeping ISIL or still holding it?
Frank:
I think Joey Bag O’ Donuts wuz lookin’ for you today.
sold isil
any likelihood that margin calls on short positions lead to an ever stronger short squeeze in the last hour?
This BAC squeeze is already looking prolific and wonder if it reinforces itself
May I suggest getting some balls.
Once again, Fly hits a homer with the post and the idiot posters emerge with well thought out quips, such as “PCR ripping. Too late for the contest.” It’s the internet equivalent to a “duh.”
It would be a better place if Fly allowed 5-10 of the better posters to comment and ban everyone else. They all suck. Even me.
hay fay
FAZ at 10.00
or too soon
Attention..Fuckery of an unknown nature beginning in 1 hour and 38 minutes….As you were
I suck too, include me on ban list please. However, Fly wins and thus, I win again. Thanks for your insights Fly. Please bury Mr. Clawhammer.
Cheers!
FAZ and FAS switching places.
Fly,
Bought FOE @1.72.
Is it still looking to go higher?
orbital
mustardseeds.
There was a process server who came to the door earlier.
I chased him down the street and bit him in the leg.
Did I do good?
Fly,
Kudos you must be on the payroll at CNBC with Jim Cramer. Your FAZ, SRS, and TLT postitions are very egregious.
Bought another 8000 FAZ @ $13.18.
Outta FAZ at 14.02 was in at 16.91..Ouch..Bought C MAY 4 calls @ 0.16 ..if the government is gonna pump money up their ass, and if everyone passed the stress test, somebody will think this is the opportunity of a lifetime.
I’m keeping SRS…the CRE can put out their secondaries till the cows come home…If only WalMart and Family Dollar are the only ones making increased sales what the fuck does that say about the consumer?
Put a dress on Mary we’re going to Family Dollar to get light bulbs and generic fucking pastry treats for breakfast on Easter. No we can’t stop at Banana Republic to get your spring school clothes.
Good job Kaiser I’m off to work…be sure to answer the phone, we’re waiting for our call to modify our home loan and get on the TARP.
Woof! Woof!
Can that poodle who lives down the block come over while you are at work?
FOE is Alpha’s dept.
Marty Chenard: “Can Wells Fargo light a fire that can stay lit?”
http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Devildog, are you keeping your MON for the long run or planning to sell in the nearterm?
Those motherfuckers with this commercial real-estate bullshit. THIS JOKE ISN’T FUNNY TO ME ANYMORE. SRS, meh!
Tampa Trader Says:
any likelihood that margin calls on short positions lead to an ever stronger short squeeze in the last hour?
This BAC squeeze is already looking prolific and wonder if it reinforces itself
******************************************
The only people short this fuckin’ Obama Bull Market are fuckin’ IDIOTS who can’t see the forest for the trees.
The NASDAQ is up 14% since Obama took office, and the S&P is up 5.5%. And you dipshitz are shorting. Pathetic.
I thought MAC SLG ACC WRI were all headed to bankruptcy?
and how can some of you tell for sure that stocks like BAC are going up because of a short squeeze as opposed to just people deciding to buy it outright? or are you just guessing
Generational BOTTOM Picker: Eat a fucking dick dip shit.
Time to short flat screen TVs.
Speaking of trash Fly.
When are you going to pick up the empty wine bottles and beer cans tossed all over your lawn.
You are my friend so I am warning you that tomorrow I my have to fine you as I am the block captain and enforcer for our homeowners association.
“…Obama Bull Market…”! You mean the economy finally belongs to him? Oops, I mean ‘Him’, please don’t shoot me.
The news in the NY Times about the banks passing the stress test is going to hurt FAZ. I salute you guys with the ability to handle the 3x without puking from the stress they cause.
Cheers!
Fuck Off G-Bottom ….
It’s still a bear market rally asshole (though a good one as expected) and the financials were the most oversold. They will fail again as soon as Major Wave B strikes (soon, maybe next week).
who said anything about not puking? SRS and FAZ making me sick…
Yakety Yak,,,
I got 600 dollars for my scrap gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!
not market related
Some scary shiiiiiiiit…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7990997.stm
That story is just an excuse for rolling brown outs this summer.
Anonymous: That story is actually a falacy. I can’t say much more but I will just tell you it is not what you think it is. If you want to read some more go here: http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?storyid=6154
If they run’em up into the bell, buy some of those triple ETF’s of death like TZA FAZ … or go for some lowly doubles, ala SRS SDS QID
in my gut, i feel like this market is going to bowl on longs and i’m tempted to buy some FAZ again. however, just like the ridiculous delcine in feb, we could continue this ridiculous ascent.
if devildog is correct, however, he’s going to make a metric fuckton of $$$.
Aris, if we’re talking about vague guesswork – Dog’s predictions, etc – I think Fly’s half-serious statement of FAZ and FAS switching places, is more likely.
THIS IS GOING TO END BADLY>>
Alan,
Do a speech! I need my FAZ to recover.
yeh, looks like FAZ is going to go exactly where you people want it to, if 8 bucks is where you want it to go…..ha ha ha
this rally is unstoppable. there is too much fuckery on the upside here for any down turn now. there is nothing such as an over bought situation now…we were over bought 3 weeks ago…. we are going up and the government is going to make sure that continues….unseen behind the doors fuckery here. most all stocks across the board are up 100 to 300% off there lows and some of them were just 5 weeks ago. SKS 1.50 to 3.oo today, LDK 3.75 to 8.00 today, HOG 7.99 to 17.64 today, UYM 7.85 to 14.62 today, and FAS 2.32 to 8.00 today and the one bank most all thought was going bankrupt (especially Karen Finerman, that fucking stupid ass twit) WFC which was 7.80 is now 19.00…..
yeh, looks like doom and gloom….fucking please, Obama is now on a tear, he will make sure that the market goes back to at least 10,000 before fall……if only all the way there on absolute stupidity, once there people will say “fuck, I missed out on a 500% upswing in these stocks, some will be up 1000%. AA is up 100% in only 4 weeks.
if there is a down day it will be only a small down day and more or less considered a pause, not a bear teardown…. I have decided today the downturn is over….we have had lots of bad news, none of it even caused a hickup in the market. no bad news will do shit to the market now outside of a world war.
IT feels like bears throwing in the towel finally…
I’m starting to nibble on short plays here – I would have started earlier in the day, but I saw Devildog buying FAZ much higher and decided to wait until he puked it up.
Wholly fucking shit SRS is going to zero soon. This is crazy, I am shorting it against my other shorts and its paying out like a hooker to a pimp. Going to close the position soon though as its a fucking OTB stock it seems.
Devilgog was right….S&P to 874
why is he going against this with the 18000 share FAZ buy today? (-20,000.00) paper loss in 6 hours…ouch
4K FAZ average 13.09
General
not panicking I have been on long side and was playing BAC to be squeezed…will buy a ton of april 9 puts at the close, too…this last 24 minutes is all about margin clerks closing out shorts indiscriminately…april 9 puts look like a phenomenal risk return…good luck
Your First Move For Thursday April 9th
Posted By:Lee Brodie
Here’s our Fast Money Final Trade. Our gang gives you tomorrow’s best trades, right now.
Jeff Macke recommends long Wal-Mart [WMT 50.91 -1.70 (-3.23%) ] as a play on same store sales.
is fAZ a gift right here?
FAS and FAZ will meet at 10.12
Shorts are DEAD. FAZ to zero. Banks to infinity. This is obviously a short squeeze but you have under invested leotard wearing fund managers under exposed to banks and REITs and the result is you have all these elephants stumbling over one another in an effort to get long banks and REITs. The best way to play this is to either get long or start incrementally building up short positions in banks and REITs 10% at a time. IMO this is not the time to get long FAZ or SKF. Wait till the tide turns to get long these. And BKX break out is signaling a possible move to 45 from current 33. FAZ to $5 and SKF to $50
jig,
Yes, it’s a gift: A beautiful Trojan horse full of Trojans.
And not the good kind of Trojans, either.
Made-in-China knockoffs with holes “pre-drilled” and ground glass lubricant.
Tues 4/13 is a CIT day … s/b wave4 down with one more wave up to complete the first abc of the predicted abc-x-abc uptrend. Still looking for 870 by Tues then a reversal (wave4) to about 835 to be followed by wave 5 to 915 for the first half of the move up. Consolidation (x) to be followed by second half of move up (abc) to a final bear rally top at 1150 then you know what ….
how quickly everyone got bullish eh? let the dust settle after wfc news, we should trade back to 800 on SP if not lower
Fuck it
I quit trading stocks and am going back to the circus.
I am riding SRS to zero!
E8,
How accurate has EW theory been so far this year? Haven’t heard a lot of claims of victory, so I’m thinking not very. But maybe you have ytd data/success record to support your prediction.
Shouldn’t someone be making threats of sucking their own dick right around now?
gapping,
Right there with you.
See you in hell.
Ken Lewis just made 100% on his BAC trade and the fun appears to just be getting started. Record profits abound! Its time for more TARP money! Literrally its like being handed over kilos of fucking coke from a Columbian dealer for free and then selling it to street hookers while the police are told by the mayor to look the other way. There is no downside.
The FED puts $1 trillion in the hands of meatheads by buying treasurys and agencies and it sparks a refinancing boom.
All the CR stocks that look like death warmed over are going to get secondaries and debt refinancings done…with ease.
SRS to $1.00
Anton,
The guy I follow has been very good at catching the Primary and Major waves … the intermediate and minor waves are an adjusting process but following the trend keeps one on the right side. He has called this bear from the beginning as an ABC and has been correct so far (Primary A done and in Primary B now) and has stuck his neck out long ago calling for a full 50% retracement of the entire bear market loss before Primary C takes us down to the bottom. Here he has stuck his neck out again (based on historical data) calling for an abc-x-abc WaveB. If he is correct we are about to finish the first half of the retracement with a zig-zag consolidation before the final abc to 1170 (his prediction). I’ve only been following him since the bear began so I can’t say how good he’s been previously but he’s kept me on track.
Thanks, Employee8.
I would think anyone who has nailed this mess so far would be more popular than Dr. Doom and Meredith combined on cnbc and in the mags. But not everyone is a media whore, I guess.
Is he looking for the peak to happen late summer and swan dive in October/November?
Anton,
Funny thing, he’s in NY too … kind of aloof or just a private investor on the internets I guess. I find that he’s been very accurate while the posters at his sight seem to be off on their own or disagreeing. I just ignore the traffic and pay attention to his trends as I am more of a swing trader than day.
Seems to me he is expecting this rally to last till at least May given the expected zig-zag consolidation and another abc leg up … he doesn’t put time frames on the moves but pivot point expectations. He did say the Primary wave C down was expected to complete in early 2010 originally as I recall. He gives weekend updates (Long term – medium term and short term) with his current assessments.
BTW, I said he was looking for 1170 top on this retracement but it is 1122 with a pivot at 1107.
Bought another 8000 FAZ @ $10.47 at the close. Fuck the lying banks. Gonna hold this FAZ till hell freezes over.
DD,
http://marginalizingmorons.blogspot.com/2008/10/wells-fargo-number-fudging.html