Sold out of 85% of my SRS and FAZ positions.
I did not sell at the bottom, but who cares? I’ve been routed by men in florescent orange jumpsuits, who keep company with goats and lambs at night, in replace of female humans.
I don’t care about my longs, since my shorts woefully fucked me. It is a well deserved walloping, I suppose. For what it’s worth, I kept onto my losing [[FXP]], [[SCO]] and [[SSG]] positions, mainly for the sake of being a macabre ranting jackass.
Aside from that, life is peachier than a homo in a peach tree.
Into the bell, I bulked up on [[GNK]], knowing full well the market is likely to trade down 2,000 points on Monday. Nonetheless, my surrender would not be complete sans a little buying, don’t you think?
In closing, I am still up for the year; but have given back much of my gains—all in one fucking day. Going forward, I will be less of an ideologue, more of a weatherman, with regards to the markets and my positions.
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Funny, I just bought in. Market down big tomorrow.
The Fly got some comeuppance. AWESOME!
Markets not open tomorrow jackass
True-Trader…mkt is closed tomorrow dumbass
Makes sense. Sell everything, go to cash. Being in cash clears your head. You see things a lot better. Allows you to make better decisions.
This may go down as your worst call of the year.
250 @ 10.50
I can take a beating and keep on ticking
I sold earlier for a loss and bot back at the close for this non-sense. This market is a big scam
HUGE volume today, looks like we are down with the bear market at this point.
Ya Fly –
surrender indeud.
The Fly can’t take pain like Atilla
http://www.marketguru.com/Atilla
That fucker, or should I say “fuck-up”, let it all ride on FAZ. He was up %90 a month ago & is now down over 50%. He must be a bullshit paper trader. How could anyone sleep like that.
way to nail the TOP….errr the bottom Jake/Devil Dog…kudos!
buy the dips…full moon fever
I sold out my SSO today for a gain and started buying into SDS. It may not be next week but this bitch will go down again!
It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes.
.
It’s all a joke…
CRE is 100% taking part in this
Global DepressionGlobal Growth story.i violated fly today
The SRS clown rape looks a little different today:
http://izismile.com/img/img2/20090409/clown_animals_05.jpg
Fly, you gotta write a comedic I..am..CNBC bit. Or a brash I..am IBC bit.
PPT says: fly, stop buying PPT Sell stocks and stop shorting PPT Buy stocks.
What’s with all the negative karma, ya’lls are hurting my itty bitty feelings. Is Fly a little baby biatch that can dish it but not take it when he’s wrong? Are all of ya’ll so dependent on licking the salt of his balls that ya’ll cannot see the man humbled. Puleeeeeeese. Have a great pagan fertility bunny day ya’ll.
Stock Leprosy (Devil Dawg) sez:
Bought 11000 FAZ @ 14.07.
Doh! (down $40k)
and…. later, that day:
Bought another 8000 FAZ @ $13.18.
Double-doh! (down another $21.5K)
Fly — take it from someone who’s learned the hard way… always be more careful when you hear that Stock Leprosy is in your same positions.
___________
leaving for europe early saturday on a g5 provided by a dear friend. will keep in touch with you guys.
because of my circumstances, i no longer have any skin in the game, and that’s too bad for me. having said that, a sharp pullback is imminent. this coming pullback should be bought in a very aggressive manner. this rally is far from over, and will go a lot higher. as a matter of fact, imo, the rally that started last month has an 80% of being the birth of a new bull. at the least we go to the 200sma.
best to everyone here. Fly, i told you a little while ago that this would be your best year, and i still believe that. the irony is that you will make it from the long side.
so long guys.
enjoy Chivas.
Thanks for the note of optimism.
Fly, i have a bottle beer I can spare. Come down to the overpass, next to the tracks. I am the one with the shopping cart that has 3 wheels. When my Obama checks shows up, we can party down and bury Mr. ClawHammer together.
Cheers!
fuck me running.
this day was like the 31st day in a row of unbelievable fuckery to the opposite direction of reason.
the entire rally 5 weeks ago started from the absolute bottom, (C at .97 cents, BAC at 2.53) when Pandit sent that memo to employees that citi had made money….that started the entire thing, one fucking memo….that rally started that morning on that note and is still going….
during that time, UTX laid off 11,600 employees (market did not flinch) March unemployeement 660,000, market did not flinch, and of course today wells fargo has shot the market with another upside and since the banks started the crash, and the banks alone have started this nonstop rally….
I guess the train has left and it is steaming ahead.
fuck it. at this point I have waited for a major pull back, I have decided today, this major downturn is not going to happen. Obama will not allow the market at this point with such positive momentum to “retest 6500” that I have decided today is NOT going to happen….I’m going long for some all summer long trades, today with BA and CAT and 2 weeks ago with AA and MOS. Going to buy GE on a pull back and more AA. going to buy HOG on a pull back and CBG on a pull back and ESLR or LDK, one of the two.
for the bears, if the rally was going to reverse, it would have done so 2 weeks ago, here we are in the 5th week of straigh up rally action….. we just climbed to the first floor of a 4 story building, we will stop and rest and then continue to the second floor. I will be climbing it with the rest. I wanted to wait till they got to the first floor to see if they would make it and they did.
Decided to start a position in SRS at the close at 32.6. Not sure if I’ll hold it long.
Quiet Storm
Great idea. Will do.
That fucker, or should I say “fuck-up”, let it all ride on FAZ. He was up %90 a month ago & is now down over 50%. He must be a bullshit paper trader. How could anyone sleep like that.
WTF? Why are people giving Bruce neg karms on this?
Are you all a bunch of closet Attilla fans?
That asshole just took some 300 people over on X-trends off a fucking cliff, and you’re going to shit on Bruce about it?
What the hell is wrong with you people?
_____________
Careful Jake. iBC is a ghetto. Your southern ass can get shot here.
Today will be a traffic spike for iBC, as the whole world tuned in to see “Le Fly” get “le blown de fuck up.”
http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s13jogon&r=12
I feel for you Fly, as I too am having nightmare’s about goats and lambs. I however, held on to my shorts, mainly via SRS at a cost basis of $36.17. I managed to do a lot of research today and found that only the Girl Scouts of America are in need of TALF or TARP money now, due in large part to low volume sales of their cookies. On the bright side for them, they get to announce their earnings (Earnings date is sometime in August) next week, beating the WFC ejaculation by a wider margin. However, once I see these girl scouts buying up commercial real estate, I will be selling my SRS position!
Chivas,
Great to hear from you. Nice call. Wish I’d listened harder, lol.
Safe travels and please let us know how your trip goes.
Thanks AB!
Bonus for me — I sold out a bunch of positions and did not buy any FAZ, saving myself at least $61k!
😉
_______
Who the fuck on this site has been long for a month and why?
I want a thesis.
This is fucking bullshit.
The rally monkey does not support this rally.
All roads lead back to real estate. When the stupid head fake is over, the jubilation of “new bull market” will die in flames.
Whoever said there was “big volume” today needs to purchase a trading program from “Chuck”.
This was a slow, utterly gay melt up on nothing. No institutional movement in the market, just bullshit rumours dragging us higher.
I faded like everyone else, in a little FAZ around 13, but I’ll sleep well, considering things like this were just ripping today.
Today’s tape was bullshit. Counter-trend hasn’t worked the past 5 weeks, but after Jesus comes back, I’m betting that reality will too.
Looks like they really sent in the clowns today.
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/images/1332.jpg
Somewhere in there are my Apr puts on ESS.
Don’t worry Fly, there are worse ways to spend Easter. Just ask the Christians. Me? I am gonna jump on my Suzuki 650 DR and use the Supertrapp to drown out the cell phones of Paris Hilton wanna-be’s while they careen recklessly around the roadways in Daddy’s Miata. Then some Dalwhinie to celebrate my good deed. Enjoy the long weekend all!
Hey Fly at least you share something with one of the greatest generals of all time, GENERAL ROBERT E. LEE. Today was a sad day in history 144 years ago when General Lee surrendered to the scoundrels of the North. Being a Southerner myself I must pay homage to this great man for his work.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_E._Lee
wow. fucking FAS/FAZ.
just wow.
we’re either going to storm to 1100 or go down in the biggest ball of flames the world has ever seen.
WOW…that’s absolutely beyond crazy about the guy with 100% FAZ.
Reminds me of the guy who blew up his account last year being long on limit down (HPT Trader, or some such?).
If you’ve been angelo’d, it’s time to genuflect at the feet of a BBW and let her manage your money. Just let it go.
You want a thesis DAVE ? You want a muthafuckin thesis ’bout why the markets going up ? Well here goes. The market is a muthafuckin rapist who just can’t stop raping people whether it be bulls or bears. You walk down the street minding your own business and Mr. Rapist market sneaks up behind, bends you over and sticks it where the sun dont shine. Thats mr. MUTHAFUCKIN Market For you. Serial fuckin rapist !
My thesis can also be translated as ” Under invested fund managers decked out in pink leotards are going long banks and REITs in order to save their sorry assed careers. “
Sorry about the bad day.
Shorting companies that fucked-up big, that fucked-up early, and that are ‘too big to fail’, continues to be a mistake.
Rather, short companies who’s strong balance sheets have been appreciated by the market, and that sell non-essential stuff to Americans. When these companies have trouble, and their cash is devalued …government won’t be able to help, even if they wanted to.
Careful Jake. iBC is a ghetto. Your southern ass can get shot here.
I’ll take my chances. I’m not yet completely of the “Southern gentile mentality” yet, anyways…
__________
Fly is one candy ass bad boy. From gansta to “weatherman.” Ridiculous.
That howl is not from the Hound of the Baskervilles – it is from DD – what a haunting wail from the depths of Hades! The market probably will gap down Monday and give DD a chance to exit a little higher……but less much coin.
dave,
I’ve been all in for the past month … thesis? Expecting the market to recapture 50% of the losses doled out from top to bottom so far … out in a week or so and will get long for the next leg up (May) and then get short for the double bottom.
Up 9-10% today!
Who the fuck on this site has been long for a month and why?
(raises hand)
I want a thesis.
Cycle Turn, gummint printing press money pouring in at unprecedented rates, ridiculously bearish retail opinion.
When your currency is fiat, the central banks and the Treasury have a lot of short term control.
Note well — short term.
(Also, I was early, so I’ve been long for a while… I was feeling it on March 9, be sure.)
____________
Equalizer! AWESOME PIC! “CLOWN NUKED!” lol!
Fly, you gotta make sure Jeremy cadges that sucker, and the shark one above as well.
_______
The FLY top is in; selling Monday.
That is all.
Jake, congrats on your FAS. As I went the other way I am well aware of the “clown” who is behind me laughing while he /she gets their rocks off!
Jake … so you are attributing this rally to Obama and his economic team? Haha … technicals/waves need not apply?
BTW, read that while M2 is expanding, velocity is not! Mr Deflation still has a foot in the door … watch your golden ass as Mr Inflation is still in hibernation along with the bloodied bears for now.
Well, good on you, Jake. Maybe I’m relying too much on the ol’ anecdotal-type evidence, but retailers here are imploding all over the place and leaving many thousands of square feet of CRE squatter-worthy every week.
With unemployment rising up, up, up, I’m not understanding how this empty retail and office space gets refilled any time soon.
Maybe I’m just being a gloomy Gus and more dense than usual, but this rally seems built on hopes and dreams and expectations that a downturn can’t possibly go on much longer now that the gov’t is involved.
But who is going to occupy all of this CRE? How are the owners going to keep making mortgage payments? How is this not going to add more “toxic assets” to the balance sheets of the banks?
It seems like everyone wishes this would be over, so they’re pretending that it is.
The author of this rally also wrote Candide.
considering the “I want it now” culture we live in, I am not surprised that everyone wants/hopes/thinks/wishes the worst was over. Can you imagine today’s society living through the Great Depression?
Does that make the next leg down all that more painful?
I am long SRS and Faz after selling my longs too soon. I am in for a miserable time for now. Ugh.
Anton asks: But who is going to occupy all of this CRE?
Storage facilities for Federal Reserve Notes
fm twitter –
Update $FAZ $FAS, If you shorted BOTH at IPO, you are now up 84.3% . These things really are criminal.
dave
raises hand also
I was accused of being a snide Canadian robot when I stated on Mar 17 that I expected a good run up to about 9k on the DOW when the US Peso got torpedoed a la some QE action by Mssr. Bernanke.
And right now two of the three long term indicators I’ve been working with are signaling long.
Check the PeeG this w/e and you’ll find out more.
As Summers said, inventories are low after a prolonged spending/credit strike by/on the consumer. A build up in inventories is in the cards and some spending to stay out of the straight jacket is in order but it will be short lived me thinks and the bear will resume this summer into spring of 2010.
The next wave of consumer saving vs consumption will be the death nail to retail/CRE …
If you shorted both URE & SRS at IPO, you’d be up 500% !
Game plan … next doubles or triple pairs that come out – short them both!
Anton – Yes Indueed. You are gloomy Gus. All this empty retail and office space is good for REITs. Understand ? its good for them. Its the ‘New Economy’ silly.
The ‘New Economy’ is all about losing money. The more money you lose, the higher your stock price and market capitalization. It the new rules of capitalism. ‘losing is winning’ . No really. Find new and creative ways to lose money and you will be rewarded with even more money.
Juice – god willing they come out with a 4X ETF. Short them both or sell naked call options against them. BTW I’m too lazy to look it up but what r the new 3X Etf that just came out ? I want to short them both.
never mind . found ’em. DZK DPK EDC EDZ TYH TYP. Time to short all 6 to zero. Its an excellent strategy. You can’t lose.
Anton well said. Cre must have been short sub prime. Hope I assume is what is happening. But hope my friends is not a plan. See you all in hell.
lol – i remember when jake was getting long, and i was thinking ‘jesus, this dude is either crazy or has diamond balls.’
obviously now we know he was crazy. ;P
Fly, I’m of the opinion, that this day will be your “worst” day and from here on out you’ll already have your “bad” day behind you. your loss of one day will be gained back in one day (well maybe 2 weeks) but this is it for you…others have yet to have their balls fondled by invisible midgets, but their day is-a-coming. it’s all sunshine and 21 year single malt from here on out for you my friend…
and to gapping andy, great tid-bit of history, I’m a war aficionado and read all I can on the civil, WWI and WWII.
In fact I’m reading “The Year of Jubilo” right now (although a novel).
CAP –
Ahhhhhh, I get it now! It’s like during the dotcom bubble when VCs would tell start ups (this is true), “We don’t WANT you to make money now. It’s all about ‘capturing eyeballs’ that we’ll monetize later.”
And, of course, that worked out PERFECTly.
OttNott –
“Storage facilities for Federal Reserve Notes…”
Ha! It’s funny ’cause it’s true.
Nice one CAP.
Sir Fly so what if every grandma in a Crown Vic out traded us today. If we win every time its boring. We will win in the end.
There is no moral hazard from borrowing trillions from the Federal reserve and putting it in the hands of criminals. It’s just stealing from the taxpayer. The game is simple. The big banks run the Federal reserve, cause a run on the banks, convince congress to borrow gazillions of dollars at the taxpayer’s expense at high interest, and then the government gives most of it back to the banks to steal more of it (after taking huge slices for various unproductive porkulus packages). The raping of America is right there.
It’s not about rewarding failure, it’s all about stealing.
Fly has to be DOWN 50% for the year with his fucked-up SRA longs at 60+, his XOM shorts,
and his fight against oil AND China.
Me- I have been the Bull of the Board, making
over 1.5% per day since March 9, and telling all you pessimists to GO LONG. I was long BAC below 6, GE below 7, STLD at 6, MOS at 37,
and all kinds of other GREAT shit.
Well guess what, Dumbasses? I locked in my huge gains between 11 and 12 this AM, selling calls and buying puts. I expect all kinds of Options Expiration FUCKERY this coming week. And at 3:55 I bought GOBS of SRS long at 32.35, probably from Fly.
I’ve been right on this market for six months
and I am RIGHT TODAY. Read this and weep, you Johnny-come-too-late longs!
Jake: Saw it on ACW’s April Fool’s post and had to share it here. It’s been that kind of week.
Anton: Problem with CRE is, we all saw it that way, and had started to price these things as if they were going to zero.
All it takes to stave off bankruptcy was a little bit of capital, and as recently as last month, it was a cinch that no capital would be forthcoming.
The past weeks saw MGM, KIM, SLG, and MAC thrown a few crumbs, and maybe those crumbs aren’t enough save them, but it’ll delay their collapse for a couple of quarters, which is a lot longer than most of the shorts are willing to wait.
As one who’s still net short ACC, HME, and ESS, it’s beginning to really piss me off. You know you’re getting emotional about a trade when you wake up, look at the screen, stare at the same set of tickers, and utter the words “why… won’t… you… die…” every morning for a week.
Awwwww Fly taking it up the ass as usual. No worries mate. You are still my favorite contrary bitch. Lova ya. 🙂
Unrelated to anything we’re talking about, but interesting piece from the Twitter:
“A Visual Guide to Deflation”
http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/a-visual-guide-to-deflation/
FAZ—will come back. wells fargo reported better than expected earnings, that doesn’t mean all are doing great! they just never got into to lending to people that shouldn’t be buying a house. In another term, they never became a credit collection agency.
Thank you, Chevron.
Thank you aaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnd fuck you.
Every day I pray to Baby Jesus that leveraged ETFs return to the hell from which they were spawned.
fly… i root for you and wish you well, but coming from the doctor with less than stellar news, your post left me with a good laugh. hang in there, you’ll be fine. arnie
Equalizer,
That’s the best explanation I’ve read so far.
And totally agree on the state of mind it induces. With the world acting 180 degrees from the way I see it, I’m wandering around muttering to myself like I’ve lost my aluminum foil hat.
I’ve noticed something else over the last week, too. cnbc had a blue ribbon panel of brains like kneale and donny douchebag attack Merideth Whitney and Roubini as being not that great at market calling, overall. “Like a broken clock” as douchebag put it. I’ve seen similar stuff online and, I think, in the WSJ.
Like a political campaign where the point is not to address the facts of the argument, but merely to bring down the credibility of the other side. After cnbc’s shit reporting and analysis, I guess they need to pull down everyone they can to their level.
So if the doomsayers are not all that great, we must be going higher, right?
Generational is correct. I’ve been long since 3/9 too and made money. I’m full short with FAZ as of today. I believe we will sell off hard into options expiration. Today was a short squeeze…no real buying. I didn’t expect FAZ to fall this far, however, it will go higher than my highest entry point at 14 next week. S&P will drop to 814 minimum and possibly 774. Bad reality news coming next week that will blow away WFC’s mark-to-fantasy earnings. Happy Easter to all!
Oops, shit. Hit the wrong karma button, DevilDog.
Apologies.
Happy Easter and all the symbology it carries.
afterhours: GS
Citigroup initiates GS with Buy, $145 target.
..Near-term catalysts likely to be upward EPS revisions and possibly early repayment of TARP… Goldman likely to come out of stress test in good shape… CRE exposure relatively small…By our estimates, Goldman has reduced its “risk” exposures by over 50% in the past year… and on and on..
***
MS: and initiates MS with a Hold/High Risk, $25 price target.
“Despite viewing Morgan Stanley as a solid franchise with leadership positions in attractive businesses, we remain
on the sidelines with the shares due to our expectation
that returns will be well below historical norms for the
next several years.”
and off track.. Downgrades LTD to Hold from Buy
Fly may be a homeless man trading today, but I wouldn’t bet against him.
Arnie, I wish you well.
Try to live your life the way you would like – sometimes Drs. become intrusions to just that.
Anton,
More deflation stuff:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asIg837lPAi0&refer=home
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4f1ac1c-2537-11de-8a66-00144feabdc0.html
Note that Summers inflation concerns were about pricing pressures 2-3 years out …
The only word that describes this market is collusion. Gov’t has far too much at risk to lose (future of the world as we know it?)
Think about it:
1. If you COULD, would you not move the market in YOUR direction?
2. If you were president and HAD to fix the world, how far would you push the limits of your power to do so? Especially believing that you had NO choice?
3. Do you really think the gov’t tells you everything?
4. Do you believe that Obama wants nothing more than to be re-elected and that he realizes that he has to pull one big fucking rabbit out of his hat?
Keep an open mind when I say this; Obama gets no respect.
There has been incredible manipulation to support gov’t interest.
If you can read between the lines and catch the occasional slip or leak (that odd “we won’t release stress test results” Reuters story last night for example), you will realize that a well-crafted story is being told.
Put some pieces together. Banks are not making money. PPT comes in and jump starts the markets. Traders wait (and wait and wait) for a sell-off. Gov’t keeps spinning – hype any bit of sunshine, hide ALL the rain, throw some PPT money into the market when it needs it to crush every last nut of every last bear.
Sure, they are somewhat admitting stress tests were not great (or you would have the fucking results by now).
BUT – if they can keep the markets going up long enough, the banks just might have a shot – those fuckers are in on it – knowing the gov’t will move this shit up – KNOWING they can make mad money along the way and it just might fix their balance shits er, sheets by the time they are done releasing bullshit positive earnings (that the gov’t helped them with a la AIG anyway). By the time they finally release the stress test results, the results will not be the same…
If you believe this shit is not stacked against you, I can only say, look at the ticker.
Obama wants it “fixed”. Hell, every American wants it “fixed”. It’s all cool to make money shorting shitty businesses but it really would not be cool if our country ends up completely fucked (more).
It might eventally blow up all spectacular-Fight-Club-like in the end but it is 100% obvious that our president, along with several others will do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING to stick something into every hole (read that one either way) to fix this mess.
Expect the unexpected and know that, even though you are right, you will be wrongly proven wrong when you bet against this – at least for now.
Take the trade in front of you.
This is what happens when you fight the trend. All trading systems seem great until you get fucked by bucking the trend.
Try a good momentum indicator (% Bollinger Bands is a good one) to catch the bottoms and tops in the McClellan Summation Index.
The current breadth-trend is up until it becomes down again. Be patient. You’ll make (keep) more money.
Trading to meet the needs of a subscriber base will ruin your trading.
This rally’s optimism feels very Januaryish / Obamaish
Soon it will quickly reverse when one of the following headline happens:
“GM Bankruptcy Official”
“Credit Card defaults hit 12%
“Pension Plans Officially Insolvent”
“Fed Reserve Downgraded”
“US Bond Auction Fails”
“Pakistan in Chaos”
OEW Daily Recap:
“The market responded to a quadruple bottom at SPX 815 by rallying in the last hour yesterday, trading higher overnight, and then gapping up at the open in typical third wave fashion. With the SPX clearing the 848 pivot and the next pivot quite a distance away at 912. It’s probably best to review some fibonacci relationships of Int. wave C to Int. wave A. Since Int. wave A travelled 166 points (667-833), and Int. wave B bottomed at 780, Int. wave C could stop at 0.50A (SPX 863), 0.618A (SPX 882) or even make it to the next pivot. These two levels, SPX 863 and 882 should be observed for signs of a short term top in the coming week.”
Bman,
Fly does not trade to meet needs of a base. He clearly spells out his reasons for most trades and, like maybe only 1% of the population, he understands that things are pretty damn bad and that the markets should NOT be doing what they are doing. Sorry Fly if I’m putting words into your mouth but that’s what I get from your posts.
Problem is, we are in a market where logic, reason, and even prescient knowledge will not always work…
I am a trend follower/fader and occasional scalper and I do agree that there are other ways to trade when your system breaks down. Right now the “unusual ability to really understand shit” system is in a drawdown.
Rise from the ashes and forge ahead with a mighty axe in hand, Fly. It happens to all of us sooner or later. keep fighting the good fight despite what some of these fuck faces say.
@lazy man
“Take the trade in front of you”.
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
GS was up like $5 in the last 20 minutes.
I had an order in to buy some 120 puts and I couldn’t lower the bid fast enough.
Oh well, those co-ksucking banker bastards.
Still holding S, which couldn’t get out of it’s own way the last two days (I will hold it forever).
Brutal uber-buying freaks.
Sorry to hear about your bad day, Fly. You’ll make it back and more.
on FAZ is dead (it is), it is dead. finished. just like FXP, SRS, SKF, etc. if you catch those things in the right weeks when they go on monumental runs, you print free money. once that absurd trend breaks, they all begin the slow grind to zero. it’s gravity.
The fake bank earnings will send us higher. Fly you picked the right time, if there was going to be a dump it would have been this week. You were fucked by the US gov and the fake bank ballance sheets. We all know the emperor still has no clothes, but we runn to the 200 ma. I find it difficult to go long at these levels not trully beliving any of this BS.
Dog. Dog. You there dog?
Hey, Dog, how’s that Faz you bought at 14.07 “working for ya”.
You know how you make fun of other people losing money, right? So tell us, fuckknuckle, how’s the long Faz working?
Hey Cuervos,
Prospectus has been working on coding ThinkScript for a system that has worked really well for me but we are both very limited in our ability to backtest as Think or Swim does not support backtesting on tickcharts for more than 4 or 5 days.
You, from what I can tell are “super math guy.” The system is ridiculously simple and I only need to refine the exits to keep more of the profits.
I can send you all of the (very simple rules) if you are interested in looking at it?
Stats from today (totals for all trades):
2 ES Trades
Max drawdown before full profit: -3.25 points
Max profit potential if rules followed and exits were nailed: +7.5 points
3 6E trades
Max drawdown before full profit: -24 pips
Max profit potential if rules followed and exits were nailed: +135 pips
2 ZB trades
Max drawdown before full profit: -.075 ticks
Max profit potential if rules followed and exits were nailed: +.240 ticks
If not, no biggie, I have a friend with TS and he wants to look at it. Problem is, he never makes money so I’m not sure he would be of much use…
Over The Edge – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h3z4NnTlfQ
Can I ask you guys something here?
This economic trouncing has been going on for 2 years now. Prices of some stocks are down 40-60%. Why do you think we can’t have a 50-60% rally like the market rallied in 1932 which was the height of the Depression?
Yes, it’s true the banks have some really shit assets on their books, however why do you think the Fed has raised the size of its balance sheet by some $2 trillion and lowered the funds rate to 0%.
All that has to happen for the banks to show profits is that the M2M needs to stabilize. I mentioned before the huge margin and return on equity banks can maker at the moment that could be as high as 70%..
And Summers is dead fucking wrong. We’re going to see inflation rear it’s ugly head by the middle of next year and it will be anticipated by the end of this year.
This isn’t the depression, this is the 70’s replay.
Lazy, if the email you put in the comments box is correct, then check it 😉
You need to think what the next catalysts will be – upgrades like GS… an actual spring selling season in RE and clarity on RE bottoming… the Fed deciding they can start withdrawing liquidity a bit early based on market conditions… newsplay on MBS market coming back, prices actually moving up… CDS market suddenly dumping as speculators bail…small retail bounceback… inventory rebuild… China pushing ahead…
don’t be looking backward in time at balance sheets, especially when you know the pricing wasn’t any more real at the lows than it was at the highs.
bet: stocks up, interest rates up, timeframe indeterminate, no trading.
trading in earning season isn’t smart..
“fuckknuckle”? sounds like a new name of a bar….The Fuckknuckle” maybe someone can hook The Fuckery up with a gig there….I hear The Fuckery haven’t been playing many gigs here lately with the death of the drummer and all.
Anyway….all the posts here are right….and I have jumped on board. You just can’t bet against the government right now. There is too much momentum behind them. They have this here market sewed up right at the present. With the mark to “original mortgage amount” now in effect, causing an instant, overnight change to the upside of all bank balance sheets, with the added bullshit refi crap going on giving people a headfake on real estate and letting those bastard stocks run up 300% in the last 5 weeks along with everything else.
The current situation, to me as of today, and mind you me, this day today was the tipping point for me. I have decided this train is unstoppable. If there are any down days they will be light and followed by more up days even from here on out than down….the market is going to creep higher by the week until the government is satisfied that it is high enough to release some of the actual real news (bad of course) back into the mix which will bring the market down, but their gig is this:
If they can falsely pump the market back up to 10000 on the DOW, then, when they get to the point they fell they have to release some bad actual news, then the DOW can fall 30% again and it will only be back to 7000. A much better solution than announce the actual news now which would put the DOW at 5000. so the government is going to feed us bullshit until the DOW has expolded up to 10000.
No amount of short sellers will do shit to this market now. They will just have their balls squeezed tighter.
This train is moving, might as well jump on. A stock can only go in one of two directions, up or down, picking that side is hard, except when the biggest market manipulator in town is calling the shots, and the government says it’s going up, so lets jump on that side and ride for free.
any one who jumped on board yesterday with even 100,000 dollars of BAC is up $40,000.00 in 24 hours. not bad, a normal Joe’s entire yearly salary in one day.
@lazy
Wood has my email if you still want me to look at it.
On the whole, I’d say your in better hands with him as I don’t have TS or TOS.
90% of my posts are based on strategies devised in spreadsheets but if you want something in Perl, Python, or Ruby – holler at the kid.
any one who jumped on board yesterday with even 100,000 dollars of BAC is up $40,000.00 in 24 hours. not bad, a normal Joe’s entire yearly salary in one day.
Yes and it will go higher too.
Here’s my prediction people will begin to move from capital loss stress to a lack of yield stress and begin to move back looking for anything that could give them better than .5% return.
Here’s the deal.
I basically stopped going to Vegas, and trade instead.
My odds are better.
Cuervos,
He just sent an e-mail so I should be good.
Thank you though (math genius).
I’ll let you know what we come up with…
lazy:
Ever watch that show “The Wonder Years?”
Remember the little girl who played Fred Savages love interest?
HERE is your MATH GENIUS, my friend (all grown up, too):
http://www.danicamckellar.com/
j asked:
This economic trouncing has been going on for 2 years now. Prices of some stocks are down 40-60%. Why do you think we can’t have a 50-60% rally like the market rallied in 1932 which was the height of the Depression?
The rally you speak of came after 34 months and an 89% decline from the peak.
The current rally is off of a 57% drop over 17 months.
If you look over the 4 bears chart on dshort.com, you’ll see that rallies of only 25% or so are about the best you get during a nasty bear. There was a rally of about 40% starting at the end of 1929, but that was after the market had dropped 48% in just 2 months. http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
j added:
All that has to happen for the banks to show profits is that the M2M needs to stabilize. I mentioned before the huge margin and return on equity banks can maker at the moment that could be as high as 70%.
Good for the banks. I’d agree that the bank panic is largely over – not because I believe that all the bad news is on the table, but because I believe that the market believes that the government will just keep adding trillions as needed.
However, I believe that propping up the banks is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for propping up the economy – especially when everyone is fully aware that the banks are propped up, not standing on their own legs.
As I mentioned earlier this morning, a situation where the banks are rolling in profits, thanks to taxpayer support, while the rest of the economy continues to suck and shed jobs, is a very dangerous one for the banks. If you think they are hated now, you haven’t seen anything.
You know, I remember seeing something about her – wild smart girl.
She should start a combo subscription trading room / webcamgirl thing.
Give me unlimited loans that noone knows about at almost zero percent. Then let me take your loaned money and purchase interest bearing bonds from you. Also let me hide my losses from other operations. And I will show you record profit during the worst economy of our lifetime.
Horatio Clawhammer is, for the next 96 hours, changed to Horatio Homo-Hammered. (respectfully)
a moment of silence please.
ottnot
The reason I don’t use the Depression as a good example (1929 to 32 specifically) is that a lot of a shit went on then that we’re not seeing now.
The Fed really, really fucked up between 29 and 32, withdrawing liquidity from the system and at one stage actually raising rates.
The economy was sawed in 1/2 and there were around 10,000 banks that closed their doors, a lot of which were good banks that had a sudden claim on deposits as a result of the panic.
The general price level also fell 30%.
This is a repeat of the 70’s in some ways.
The other thing is that the stock market could actually be in the beginning stages of predicting the inflationary pulse we’re going see by the middle of next year.
Let’s get one thing straight, banks WILL always be protected species no matter how much they are hated until we begin to have free banking and private currency issuance.
As I look at these bank charts tonight…
It suddenly struck me, we need to look at these bank stocks as we used to look at dot-com start ups.
Maybe we will start seeing $5 – $30 dollar a day run-ups on these nasty things?!?
Every time the White House drops an O-bomb or a G-Bomb or a B-bomb? BANG! Bank stocks run up $15 bucks or so.
CHA-CHING!…and to hell with valuations!
After all, we are being offered the OPPORTUNITY to buy a little piece of the new-world-future here!
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
I have free banking now with a minimum balance.
Maaaaaaan, 18 thumbs down? That must be something of a record. Somebody go back and check, maybe I can get my own page on this here dump. After all, there is no such thing as bad attention right? Glenn Beck cries his big boy tears, I piss good Christians off. There’s a market for anything.
Fly, must make you feel better that there are at least 18 cocksuckers/ball-lickers out there who feel your pain. That definitely made your losses today smaller. Or not.
Well, enough fun for one day for me. Plan to trundle down to the YMCA on Saturday to wrangle me a nice little WASP MILF ass to go bunny on all the way to midnight Sunday. hehehehe.
So to recap. The score so far, Christians 18 Pagans 3 and its our festival to boot. Damn.
Jake – dude you need new business cards:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YBxeDN4tbk
Free banking means
anyone can open a bank like any other business with the minimum of fuss and no protection or moral hazard to speak of. Lose your deposit? Tough titties.
J,
An OEW post from YE 2008 regarding 50% retracements:
“After every 50% crash, including the 1929-1932 Supercycle bear market, there has been a 50% retracement rally. What occurs after this rally determines how severe the bear market will be. In example, during 1973-1974 the bear market dropped 50%, retraced 50%, and then kept heading higher. It never made a lower low. That bear market was over. During 1937-1942 the bear market dropped 50%, retraced 50%, and then gradually weakened. But it took three years to retest the original low with a slightly lower low. During 1929-1932 the bear market dropped 50%, retraced 50%, and then started heading lower and making new lows soon after. At every new low, the decline paused for a couple of months and the market rallied. When the rally failed to continue, the market again headed lower. Eventually the market finally made a new low and entered a sustainable rally. That was in 1932, and after the stock market had lost nearly 90% of it value. Of the three Cycle wave scenarios: 1973-1974, 1937-1942 and 1929-1932, the least likely is 1973-1974. The double bottom 1937-1942 scenario is possible, yet a modified version of 1929-1932 scenario is the most probable. Before drawing any definitive conclusions, the market first needs to establish that 50% retracement rally. Which is clearly a selling opportunity. Then, and only then, will we have an idea of what to expect next. Our indicators currently suggest an end to the recession/depression in late 2009. How severe the economic downturn will be, and how the market will respond to that data is pure speculation at this point.”
fiona… i appreciate what you said. thank you.
epic quotes continue:
Aside from that, life is peachier than a homo in a peach tree.
Just know and understand: Those of you betting against “The Fly” will be liquidated as a “routine precaution”.
“THE FLY” REMAINS DEFIANT IN THE FACE OF OVERWHELMING HORROR.
[EOM]
Everybody hurts sometimes.Rem
I started being bullish early jan got ass handed to me. Then über bear again played. Never bet against corrupt gov or the industry that pays most via lobbyists and finally never ever avg down on an etf! I remember @buyonthedip asking fly about eggs a month ago and fly said “they kill people”. He was right they are meant to kill people; the brave, naive, and or greedy!
Tips hat, good day gentlemen
This is why you’re one of the best Fly. You know when a mistake has been made and take action to correct it and aren’t afraid to hide it. Awesome.
lulz
So I’m in Orlando for Easter-
1st mistake
Buying FAZ -Lifetime mistake
Razn — make sure you get TC to take you out for a beeah.
_______