Whole industries are on the precipice of outright collapse. As a point in fact, whole countries are already in free fall. The Russian economy, for example, is in extremely dire straights, with the Ruble dropping by 2/3rds in recent months and corporate balance sheets in shambles. It is estimated that more than 400 billion dollars in Russian corporate debt needs to be refinanced this year, most of which is financed by European and Asian banks.
Aside from the banks, autos, commercial Re and insurance firms are next up on the chopping block. Most of these firms have disastrous exposure to the capital markets. And, moreover, their policy holders are going bankrupt—har, har, har.
Stocks that will be in the line of fire include: MET, AXA, ING, AEL, PRU, LNC, PL, AZ, HIG and ZNT just to name a few.
As for our banks: I really want no part of them, long or short. I do think they go lower. However, bearing witness to one short squeeze after another, over the last 2 years, has conditioned me to stay away from the sector, whenever it is at or near new lows. If forced to bet against a few names, I’d sell short PACW, MCO (fuckers), WABC, EWBC, PCBC, CATY and CMA.
However, again, I would not be surprised to see some sort of asshole rally, over the next few weeks. My money is better served betting against oil/gas and commercial Re.
UPDATE: Follow iBankCoin on Twitter. Soon enough, all iBC related articles will be linked there, in a very spammy way.
http://twitter.com/iBankCoin
1st
The Fly is God
Jed has man tits. The big floppy ones.
SRS Hold and sell into GOLD
Finance-REIT’s (your income-lovers, widows and orphans horror show):
VNO (9% yield; 10% short-interest; reports 24Feb)
SPG (9.5% yld; 8% shorts; 483% debt)
BXP (7% yld; 12% shorts)
AIV (41%! yld; 15% shorts; 430% debt)
AVB (8% yld; 18% shorts)
MAC (24% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=18Feb; 501% debt; 32% shorts)
CBL (55%! yld; 25% shorts; 638% debt)
PPS 7% yld, est. ex-divd=27Mar; 12% shorts)
HME (9% yld; 21% shorts; 357% debt; reports 19Feb, after-mkt)
CPT (12.6% yld; 8% shorts)
UDR (14% yld; 8% shorts 321% debt)
HR (10% yld; caution, est. ex-divd=18Feb; 12% shorts; reports 23Feb, aftermkt)
HST (5% yld; 8% shorts; reports 18Feb, b4 open)
WRI (15% yld; 11% shorts)
PLD (13% yld12% shorts)
SLG (21% yld; 20% shorts)
CUZ (12% yld; 15% shorts)
KIM (17% yld; 11% shorts)
CLP (18% yld; 9% shorts)
KRC (11% yld; 9% shorts)
TCO (9% yld; 11% shorts)
EQR (9% yld; 6% short)
EPR (17% yld; 15% shorts; reports 23Feb, aftrmkt)
ESS (7.5% yld; 22% shorts)
Insurance Co.’s on the chopping block. Indeud (Sp?) .
yea diddint you say you were bullish 4 or 5 days ago what a jackass dow will trade with a 6 handel
INSURANCE (insurance/exosurance – insure this!):
PFG (4% yld; 4% shorts)
MFC (5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=23Feb; minimal shorts)
AFL (5.5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=13Feb; 4.5% shorts)
CNO (no yld; 3% shorts)
AXA (10% yld; eps due ?; minimal shorts)
TMK (2% yld; 7.5% shorts)
This has been a very difficult tape. Staying short sometimes means having your assets seized and your dog raped in the still of the night by government agents with hazmat suits and 70’s-style Ray Ban’s. Still, at the end of the day, we know how this game ends.
Japan has been fucked for 20 years now! 20 YEARS!! From the NIKKEI peak of 1989, the stock market keeps hitting fresh lows.
The US’ 1930s Depression is actually a cakewalk compared to what Japan is STILL going through.
And the scary reality is that the US’ financial condition is substantially worse than Japan’s. The only thing holding the US system together right now is the US dollar’s continued status as a world currency. This will probably end within the next 4-5 years (tops).
As the US economy and currency implode, gold prices will go verticle to the upside. Central banks around the world will begin to build robust gold reserves.
I’m officially moving back to Rio on March 5. Aside from my short positions, I’m in the process of moving most of my net worth back to Brazil as well.
America is finished. Sucks. But it’s true.
We will be fine. It always looks darkest in the middle of the tunnel.
President Obama and this stimulus plan, which I have read over will do much to get us out of this. Time will be the only real remedy.
This stimulus will go a long way to giving people temporary relief and jobs.
I hope we can computerize all of the medical records by Obamas next term. This will go a long way in streaming these programs, and making them more efficient.
I do believe that eastern Europe as a whole has about 400 billion euros (could be dollars) of debt due this year. Good luck with that!
But the western European banks that lent the money in the first place are even more screwed. It really looks like Austria is fucked pretty nicely on this one. Maybe Germany will have to take over after all …
Hey Fly,
You may need to seek an alternative destination for your next goat-herding trip. 🙂
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/11/afx6036881.html
I swear, if you fuckers can’t communicate in proper English, I will have to start banning fuckers. Get your spell checks in place. I am sick of reading drivel.
Fly, thx for the post. I’ll check out the tickers. Sorry about your trouble with the car.
Mike, thx for sharing.
…dire STRAITS… you Sultan of Swung.
Phil,
As cool as I think the City of God looks from the air in all those travelogue photos, and as much as your national team makes soccer almost bearable to watch, I’m not sure Brazil is going to weather the next few years any better than the U.S.
The crime in Brasilia and Rio is getting as bad as some Mexican border town according to a friend who visits for business a couple times a year. And a friend who has family down there says the economy/unemployment has been grim for more than a year now.
Besides, you can’t leave now, it’s just getting interesting!
Fuck Peter Schiff. We’re not quite finished yet.
Brazil is a piece of shit. Those animals kill their homeless and harvest their organs.
Don’t step to iBC EVER and say Brazil is better than U.S.
Or anywhere else, for that matter.
Even Roomania. Tho they do trump us on goats.
Fucking goat gap.
It is always darkest just before the dawn. Let me know when the mindset is none more black.
What’s up with VIX?
Is it going to go down or what?
I’m going back b/c of a nice opportunity at the Central Bank. As for crime, it’s always been part of the way of life down there. For the record, I’ve never been robbed (knock on wood). And I have not achieved this feat by encloistering myself in the house. I frequently go to parties, sporting events at Maracanã, spend weekends on the beach, etc.
The key to dodging criminals comes down to common sense:
1) Avoid strolling into a favela (an urban shanty town home to empoverished folks who live rent-free and dangerous drug lords) irrespective of what time of day it may be. Cidade de Deus, a favela in western Rio, is the setting for the movie City of God. You get the picture.
2) Never dis a cop. Cops are often the criminals themselves. If you dis a cop, you could very well end up in the trunk of a car at the bottom of a river somewhere, never to be seen again by friends and family. When confronted by a cop, citing your violation of a random law, just pay him the bribe ($5-$25) and move on.
3) Try not to look like a tourist. Of course, if you’ve got pale skin, blond hair and blue eyes and speak nothing but Finnish…. then, you’re fucked without recourse (as in, say goodbye to that $800 Nikon you have hanging around your neck).
What if someone says Canada is greater then the U.S?
Is that acceptable? I will not say my opinion of Canada if it results in my banning.
I will say C>US
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i6CSoct4lE
This proves why.
I’m sure I missed a few posts, but didn’t your car get wrecked whilst playing frogger through some busy intersection Fly ? I say f&*K the autobody shop, just rock some blue-radio silver tape on said vehicle and get on with your busy day…
Today: Kansas is suspending income tax refunds due to its budget position – Press – The report adds that the state may not be able to pay its employees on time.
Holding my long positions in an array of battered down banks and financials. All fresh positions at these lows. This is how I feel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHxIssSROjk&feature=related
Mr. Fly:
Howard must be very proud of you re:
http://twitter.com/iBankCoin
Your #45th Follower
lol, the last two sets of comments (“Right or Wrong”, and “Watch the Hammer of Death Drop”) read like Psyops for George Friedman’s “The Next 100 Years”. All of you Manifest Destiny freaks are likely to be in for one massive shock! I sure hope some of you have family working for Eric Prince, or it could be cattle drive to FEMA campers for the whole lot. The greenback could soon easily share the same value as the post WWI German Mark, and you want to charge with ‘treason’ Schiff, who’s effectively warning you about it, rather than go after the people that are actually forcing it on you.
“You people, you sit there….you’re in for one helluva surprise!” Christopher Walken
How is Brazil not better than America?
1) I get taxed 50% of my earnings here (once you add sales taxes). The top income tax rate in Brazil is 27.5%.
2) You have a much higher percentage of hot, awesome chicks in Brazil (that matters to me, as I’m 29).
3) You go to a sporting event here, it’s boring. Everyone’s sitting in a little seat, chanting boring repetitive lines like: Go Yankees, Go. Go Yankees, Go.
In Brazil, I arrive with a group of 4-5 friends a few hours before a game starts at the stadium (Maracanã, in my case). At the stadium, you meet all sorts of random new people at the stands. You and another 70,000 sporters (in big games go for hours chanting highly profane and liberating creative songs that poke fun at the opposing team. When a goal gets scored, you’re jumping all over the place hugging dozens of other people you never saw before in jubilation, while chanting death and more profanity to the other team. It’s pretty awesome.
4) Weather is awesome all year in Brazil. This is a big minus for New York, though, I realize the guys in the South of the US also have decent temperatures and clear skies.
5) We have some of the best beaches in the world.
6) Our big banks (Itau, Bradesco, Unibanco) aren’t exposed to subprime loans or CDOs (given the lessons learned from years of economic crises) and all have positive equity and robust balance sheets. The major US banks (B of A and Citi) are technically insolvent.
7) There are no parking tickets in Brazil. That’s right. They don’t exist down there. You basically park your car wherever it fits on the street. Period.
8) The cost of living is much lower than in New York (and the rest of the US).
9) As for Brazil being an export country today. We had a closed-door economic policy until 1991. The country was growing in the 80’s courtesy of internal demand. Brazil will, without a doubt, be fucked in the short-run (along with every other country in the world), as it learns to live in a world of no or very little international trade. In my view, countries around the world will become more protectionist, as they aim their policy guns towards saving their own citizens.
The good news for Brazil, even in such a scenario, is we are the world’s largest exporter of coffee, orange juice, iron ore and the second largest exporter of soybeans, corn, sugarcane, beef and cocoa. We are also sulf-sufficient in oil and a net exporter. So, even if countries try to boycott us, they will still need to keep a minimum level of natural resource imports coming from us in order to ensure their own survival. Moreover, even if Brazil writes off its exports (about 17% of 2008 GDP) it still has reliable internal demand and a net saver consumer to maintain itself. The adjustment process (ie, writing off international trade and accepting the new reality we might live in) would probably take a few years (again, we’ve been there before).
The US is long-term fucked though. In a world of little or no international trade, the US doesn’t have internal demand to fall back on. The US consumer is overlevered and represents 67% of GDP. Internal demand will be falling of a cliff, because the whole economy is “phony” and based on debt.
Atilla just got even MORE bearish:
Update on cyclical target for SP500
During the last few weeks, the markets showed that 600 level on S&P500 could no longer be an important support for this bear market. I expect the benchmark to stabilize between 400-450 before the next possible cyclical bull market. Not only several major indices but many heavily weighted components are somehow giving similar implications on long term charts.
No bounce, straight down 2morrow and every day from now on.
#54
MOOBER:
I have trouble taking that guy seriously – he’s called for a major gap down and terminal crash about once a week since November.
Oh i know, i just though it was interesting that the under bear is now tres uber bear
no predictions, just stuff to read.. Citigroup on a few stocks today (RIG, CTSH,LE):
RIG: Buy on Weakness …— RIG Will Not Pay Regular or Special Cash Dividends — Yesterday’s announcement clearly signals that the board of directors decided against paying regular or special dividends out of free cash flow. Some analysts and investors had expected RIG to adopt a cash payout scheme similar to the one adopted by Diamond Offshore. Some investors will be disappointed at yesterday’s announcement.
If Transocean shares drop in response to the company’s decision to repurchase stock rather than pay cash dividends, we would be buyers. We rate RIG Buy-High Risk and our price target is $107 per share.
CTSH (Cognizant) Trgt Price raised to $26 from $24
To be clear, we do not believe there is a major near-term catalyst for CTSH, especially on the back of a pretty good rise in the stock over the past two weeks. But if you have a 6+ month investment horizon, it may be worthwhile to consider that if CTSH starts showing positive growth momentum in 2H09 headed into 2010, it should be quite attractive to a wide range of investors as we start
thinking about the later part of this year. Looking ahead……CTSH is a Buy.
LH: Keeps BUY but lowers trgt to $74 from $86 (based on overall S&P 500 re-valuation)
Yo Phil_From_Brazil… If you really have strong proof as to Japan being fucked for about 20 years, check this out:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29218123
Now their top officials are getting drunk and doing “drugs” (cough medicine) because it’s so bad over there… No wonder their economy contracted so much!!
Phil,
Congrats on the bank job. I hope you’ll keep posting from Rio.
But I think you’re premature with the American obituary.
I’m talking my book, of course. Doesn’t make it less true, tho.
ZMoose,
You misread my post. I said “Japan HAS BEEN FUCKED”. The “proof” is in HISTORY. 🙂
As for the future, I have no call on Japan, though, based on the 13% drop in Q4 2008 GDP, it looks like they’re pretty fucked.
My point was, if Japan, with superior economic fundamentals in the late 1980s (relative to the US in 2008-2009) has been getting anally probed for the past 20 years, I certainly don’t see how the US will be out of this mess anytime soon. My guess? 25-35 years before the US stockmarket revisits current levels.
The emerging market decoupling thesis will play out over this period. The winners will be countries with high savings rates, low government and consumer debt relative to GDP and robust internal demand. The US has none of these. It’s that simple.
Anton,
Good luck to your investments. Just remember: reality always trumps hope.
-Phil
Phil Brazil,
How is Brazil on immigration? Can I get in if I’m retired? Can I still SHORT the American stock market from there? I’d like to get out of this phony baloney shit hole too.
“The good news for Brazil, even in such a scenario, is we are the world’s largest exporter of coffee, orange juice, iron ore and the second largest exporter of soybeans, corn, sugarcane, beef and cocoa. We are also sulf-sufficient in oil and a net exporter.”
Coffee = Duncan Donuts
OJ = Tropicana
Iron Ore = Car Fenders (Lexus)
Corn = Can of Corn
Sugarcane = Monster Drink
Soybeans = Bowl of Cereal
Beef = 2 1/2 ” Ribeyes
Cocoa =
Phil: My Rio story:
New Years Eve 1989. Stayed at the Rio Palace Hotel. Julio Iglesias was on the same floor as us. Five buddies were mugged on the main drag in front of the hotel (where they sent the boats with candles out into the ocean), stole their money and US passports. Oh, and 100 people drowned when the Brazilian cruise boat Bateau Mouche capsized at Copacabana beach, Guanabara Bay.
Great memories.
“The good news for Brazil, even in such a scenario, is we are the world’s largest exporter of coffee, orange juice, iron ore and the second largest exporter of soybeans, corn, sugarcane, beef and cocoa. We are also sulf-sufficient in oil and a net exporter.”
The bad news ….
Coffee = Duncan Donuts
OJ = Tropicana
Iron Ore = Car Fenders (Lexus)
Corn = Can of Corn
Sugarcane = Monster Drink
Soybeans = Bowl of Cereal
Beef = 2 1/2 ” Ribeyes
Cocoa = Food of the Gods
Oil = Petrol = Pete = Petey (Plutonium)
Behold! The Fly can throw your economy into a downward spiral whenever he so chooses all by himself….
You Sir are Fucked!
Zenprofit,
I’ve heard stories worse than that from tourists.
Being a tourist down there is a completely different ballgame. You really need to blend into the environment to avoid being a target. That means, you need to learn the geography, the streets, and the language. Yes, that means you don’t carry a $500 Olympus around your neck and 400-page copy of Fodder’s Brazil under your arm. Staying at a fancy hotel (like the Copa Palace or the Rio Palace) is also not a good idea in Rio, as many con artists who prey off of tourists hang around the lobby and the general vicinity of such hotels. You’re better off staying at a mid-priced hotel (non-international) or a pousada.
One of my best friends (an options trader) down there is a New Yorker. But this kid is of a different breed. He totally renounced the US. He arrived in Rio 6 years ago with no friends and no language skills — committed to adapt and thrive. He learned the basics of the language in a 6-month period and in 2 years got pretty fluent. This guy is in his late 30s, has 2 steady girlfriends and hooks up with 2-3 other chicks a week that he meets at local pubs, bars, pousadas, the beach, etc.
Life is good down there.
There is a lot of buzz about a possible few up days before we take out the lows (just to fuck people one more time)
Im 100% in cash right now and want to short some Comm RE. However, after the beating it took last week, Im waiting for some kind of bounce.
Does anyone think we will get one this week?
P.S If you want ot get laid by the finest women in the world, go to RIO (New York 10’s). I went with some buddies when we were in college and had the wildest time of our lives.
That Thong (thong thong thong thong)
Im sure there is a little Ass Napkin Jesus running around down there HA!!!
E8,
I’ll take my chances.
Good luck with the solvency of your banking system and your next Obama-sponsored bailout.
Phil,
Just saw your other post. I’m off to enjoy some boring American fun, but allow me a quick response to “How is Brazil not better than America?”
1) I get taxed 50% of my earnings here (once you add sales taxes). The top income tax rate in Brazil is 27.5%
>>> Truly no offense intended, but from what I understand of the quality of life there, you are being over-charged.
2) You have a much higher percentage of hot, awesome chicks in Brazil (that matters to me, as I’m 29).
>>> You also have an AIDS and STD rate that would scare a Haitian crack whore. (That should matter to you, as you are 29.) Also, you might want to look more closely. Brazil has the highest number of sexual reassignment surgeries per capita in the world. Caveat emptor.
3) You go to a sporting event here, it’s boring.
>>> Yep, the thrill of being trampled to death by drunk/stoned “fans” eludes us. But there are plenty of people who make a day of going to a football game here. We call them “tailgaters.” Or, less charitably, “losers.”
4) Weather is awesome all year in Brazil. This is a big minus for New York, though, I realize the guys in the South of the US also have decent temperatures and clear skies.
>>> Cold temps are a modest inconvenience in parts of our country, but far less so since we invented fire.
5) We have some of the best beaches in the world.
>>> Seychelles, Hawaii, Bahamas, Australia and even modest Florida welcomes comparison.
6) Our big banks (Itau, Bradesco, Unibanco) aren’t exposed to subprime loans or CDOs (given the lessons learned from years of economic crises) and all have positive equity and robust balance sheets. The major US banks (B of A and Citi) are technically insolvent.
>>> No argument. Shanty towns obviate the need for subprime loans. Of course, the rupee laughs at your currency, so one wonders why bother with banks at all?
7) There are no parking tickets in Brazil.
>>> No, just police officers who are prone to arbitrarily imposing the, “Gimme some fucking money or I take your fucking kidneys” tax.
8) The cost of living is much lower than in New York (and the rest of the US).
>>> And well worth the discount.
9) As for Brazil being an export country today…
>>> I’m sorry, but as an American, I enjoy bananas and coffee and all of the wonderful abundance we take out of the proud Third World, but my eyes glaze at trade statistics. I’m sure you made an important point.
Phil, what’s best about the US is that we’ve always welcomed the Phils from Brazils of the world and trained, challenged and inspired them to be their best. We’re in for some bad times ahead, but I can’t think of another country I’d rather bet on to pull off a recovery. If you think Rio offers you a better future, go with God.
But even wounded, there is no comparison.
Devildog,
This buddy of mine from New York never got legalized. It’s too much of a hassle, he says. He just went there on a 6-month tourist VISA. He pays some govenrment person off to renew his tourist VISA every 6 months. I can find out the details if you’d like to know.
The downside is he has no Brazilian bank account (which is a shame, since Brazil has the highest interest rate in the world, 12%, with inflation of 4%) and cannot own property or buy a car.
He does his trades on Schwab via his US account. So, he’s exposed the the US system while he’s in Brazil.
I’m a Brazilian citizen, so I’m moving most of my assets down there. I’ll still leave some here in the US, so I can continue to be net short with impunity. 🙂
The downside to playing the Brazilian stock market is there’s less of a variety of names to play, no ETF’s, and less overall liquidity. Commissions are about the same as here. You have discount brokers charging $9, and larger banks charging $20 or more for other services.
Anton,
great response. LMFAO.
just one thing. i rather have my money in bac or c than in a brazilian whatever you want to call it.
Okay. I’m game about moving to Brazil.
But, forget Rio.
I will be going to the Amazon to lived in the jungle and amongst the crocs. I will live off the land.
I hope the Amazon has internet sevice, though and a few golf courses would be nice.
Phil – What are real estate prices like in Rio ? Say I want a 1500 sq ft. high rise condo/apartment in a good part of town. How much would that cost ? Or maybe a 3000 sq ft. house ?
If you’re looking for an insurance short, look no further than MKL … tdg around $310 .. 100 pts downside, at least.
equity exposure to GE C BAC IGT
wait till we start getting some social unrest/property vandalism/destruction
this suckas going down
Anton,
I respect your opinion but laugh at your rapid-fire responses. Here’s the difference, though. I’ve lived in both countries, so I’ve got a pretty well-documented account of the pros and cons of both places.
You only have the US point of view. Your view on Brazil is based on hearsay, the media and personal extrapolations.
I can assure you that if you spent a year over there, you would never come back to America (provided you had the financial wherewithal and didn’t need to return for work purposes). I saw this because while in High School down there, I saw a number of my professors (who went down there with their American wives, inititally), get divorced and relocate permanently. They used to tell us that what made the US bareable was the lack of first hand knowledge that places like Brazil existed.
As for your STD/AIDS claims, Brazil is a dichotomous country. Less than 1% of the country makes up 80% of it’s wealth. The nice areas of Rio, São Paulo, Recife, Porto Alegre and Salvador, are home to that 1%. That’s where I’ll be. The AIDS/STD stats are at OECD levels there. It’s in the impoverished zones (the rest of the country) that that is true.
Your claim about favelas (shanty towns) being subprime worthy is indicative of your lack of knowledge of the country. First of all, favelas are clandestine lands, meaning, the areas are not registered with the government. This allows squators to settle in those lands for zero cost. This of course, means states an municipalities miss out on property taxes and the like. The problem is favelas make up 20-25% of big city electorates now, so politicians are reluctant to go in there and change the status quo.
Chivas,
I’m not sure how you arrive at that conclusion that leaving your cash at BAC is a good idea.
In the past 3 years, my fixed government bonds account in Bradesco is up 38% after fees. The current SELIC (the Federal Funds rate in Brazil) is about 12%. Inflation is 4% per annum. In late 2002, the SELIC peaked at 26.5%.
Brazil currently boasts the highest real interest rate in the world.
From a currency perspective, Brazilian real holdings also outperformed against the US dollar. In the past 3 years, the real has gained about 30% on the US dollar. If you got back to 2002, the gain is about 70%.
I’d rather stay with Bradesco.
Good luck with BAC.
Im trying to plan a trip with my fiance to Costa Rica next month.
Does anyone have any suggestions on a place. We are looking for something upscale, on the beach, private, own plung pool, etc.
THANKS
Phil – What are property rights like in Brazil ? Can a non Brazilian start a business ? Can the government seize my assets because it feels like ?
Cap,
For about US$ 400-600k US, you basically buy a sickening pad in Rio — duplex, nice view, varandas, suites, door man, internal video phone and a ground-level recreational complex feat. a pool, soccer court, the works.
For US$ 200-300k, you live like a king — all of the above, but not a duplex.
Fox US$ 100-200k, all of the above, minus internal video, recretational complex and the place would be about 30% smaller.
Note: About 90% of the apartments in the middle-class to upper-class areas of Rio have doormen.
Phil,
Good to see that even without speaking the Portuguese, my jokes translate. But read your stats there: Up to 25% of the electorate living in shanty towns? 1% controlling 80% of the wealth? I suggest that this is not a sustainable social model.
Tho I haven’t been to Brazil, I travel a lot. Still plan to hit Brasilia, just to see the sci-fi architecture. Cambodia, down in the Siem Reap area (Angkor Wat, etc.), is my new favorite place. If you haven’t been, go.
And keep posting from Rio. Your egregiously retarded take on America aside, you’ve always had great analysis.
________________
Chivas,
Hope you’re on the mend and feeling better!
————–
Okay, time for that boring American fun now.
Phil … if this is true how come Cape Cod and the Islands are inundated with Brazilians? I met a guy living in a motel here, out of work (ldscpg) for the winter and freezing his ass off (no heat or $) trying to survive till the spring. Why work here for minimum wage for six months a year if things are so much rosier there?
BTW, Trump Entertainment just filed for bankruptcy protection …. the Donald and his daughter have stepped down per FBN.
Trump offered to buy the rest of the company and was turned down by bondholders, he said.
Doh …. after getting hosed a few times this way they finally smartened up
All gambling stocks are shorts – LVS MGM WYNN IGT .. etc
Celente says this depression will be worse than the Great Depression
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
Phil,
you misunderstood. cash in bac and c is secured by uncle sam, as long it does not exceed 100k.
you see Phil, i know your country’s history rather well, not just the last 10 or 15 yrs. but even if i knew nothing about brazil, and the only thing i knew is what you have posted here, i would not keep a dime in that country. in a world wide economic collapse, i would not want to live in a country with favelas and where 1% of the population owns 80% of the assets, specially being a non-brazilian. imo, if we go down the toilet, the toilet brazil will go down will be larger and dirtier than ours. i really hope that does not happen. yours is the country that during economic collapses, because of no middle class and an enormous amount of the people poor, the rich get hunged or beheaded at the public squares.
having said all that, if we avoid all that, like i think we will, i would love for you to be my guide during carnaval. if i am still around by then. good luck to you.
This guy is in his late 30s, has 2 steady girlfriends and hooks up with 2-3 other chicks a week that he meets at local pubs, bars, pousadas, the beach, etc.
It’s all fun and games until one’s dick rots off.
The last time I was in Rio and Sao Paulo (four days, bidness trip) was 1993, and when we went down to the beach in Rio (we stayed at one of the hotels right on the beach), I noted that there was an open sewer draining right out into the waves, and little kids were splashing around in the edges of it.
Kind of put me off my lunch. But I will admit I saw the most exotic hotties in my life in Sao Paulo. That place was something else for a young man.
________
Brazil can suck a fart out of my ass! So can you Phil you meat sleeve! If Brazil is so great then what the fuck are you doing here?
P.S If you want ot get laid by the finest women in the world, go to RIO (New York 10’s). I went with some buddies when we were in college and had the wildest time of our lives.
Disagree. Sao Paulo is better.
__________
Anton,
“Fucking goat gap.” I nearly did a spit take on my keyboard.
Ass Napkin,
There is a new four season in Costa Rica called papagayo or something like that. YOu should check out tabacon as well..
An American says:
So can you Phil you meat sleeve!
“Meat sleeve?” Have we stumbled upon a fan of Richard K. Morgan?
Caution — he hates America too!
__________
E8,
Brazil is a country with an eggregious gini coefficient — that’s econ giberish for a very uneven distribution of income. If you’re poor in Brazil (and most folks down there are), then, it sucks (like any place in the world), because you don’t get to enjoy all the great things the country has to offer: hot chicks, Carnaval, parties, etc.
I feel for the guy flipping pancakes in Hyannus. Thankfully, that’s not me. If I didn’t have a good upbringing and good options, then I’d definitely not be able to go back to Brazil. However, go ask that guy where he’d want to be if he was making $250k/year?
The difference is the quality of life the affluent have in either country AND the meaning of the word affluent. In the US, if you’re, say, an engineer or a lawyer, making $250k a year, you’re just another smuck. You hit a club or a bar, maybe you get a chick, usually you dont (if you’re looking for a high quality chick). If you do, then theres a lot of talking, and bullshit. Usually, you need to meet again, go to stupid restaurants and deal with all sorts of issues before things get going. And, God forbid, you get tired of the chick after a few weeks, they start menacing you with calls and txt msgs, and crying, etc.
In Brazil, you pick and choose. There’s an abundance of hot chicks — no strings attached. The country is all about having fun in a no-frills sort of way. If things don’t work out or you’re not into the chick after a week or a few days, you tell her, it’s cool, and you move on (maybe she even becomes a friend and introduces you to other hot little pocket rockets in the future). And the ability and speed with which you can replace the hot chick you just dropped is the stuff dreams are made of. With that same $250k/year, which doesnt get you anywhere special here in America, you live like a sultan down there.
That’s my point.
Ass Naps — Belize is sweet and I think it’s still a UK protectorate.
Not yet all tourist choked, and beautiful.
Just don’t fuck up talking to the travel agent and end up in Belarus.
That’d be a nasty shock.
__________
In Brazil, you pick and choose. There’s an abundance of hot chicks — no strings attached. The country is all about having fun in a no-frills sort of way. If things don’t work out or you’re not into the chick after a week or a few days, you tell her, it’s cool, and you move on (maybe she even becomes a friend and introduces you to other hot little pocket rockets in the future). And the ability and speed with which you can replace the hot chick you just dropped is the stuff dreams are made of. With that same $250k/year, which doesnt get you anywhere special here in America, you live like a sultan down there.
Sounds karmically challenged, but what TF do I know?
I’m Catholic.
_____________
Jake,
SP has better nightclubs. That’s indisputed. Chicks? They’re hot pretty much everywhere in Brazil. The added plus to Rio is the beach. The City of São Paulo is landlocked.
An American,
Why am I here? For the same reason most foreigners come: work stint.
Now I’m going back.
LMAO. so am i.
Thanks for the Info on Cssat Rica
Jake–Funny you mentioned Belize. We have been checking it out too and found some really nice places. We want to go to that blue hole out in the ocean.
“Belize is sweet and I think it’s still a UK protectorate.
Not yet all tourist choked, and beautiful.
Just don’t fuck up talking to the travel agent and end up in Belarus.
That’d be a nasty shock.”
That’s some funny shit, Jake.
-Phil
LMAO. so am i.
Yeah, but difference is, if Phil goes back, he doesn’t get shot for crimes against the state, you capitalist dog.
Well, not yet anyway. Let’s see how their rule of law holds up in the coming down turn….
__________
An American,
Still laughing at meat sleeve (no ironies here). Hadnt heard that one before.
Webster had no angle on the “meet sleeve”. For that, I owe gratitude to the Internet’s very own Urban Dictionary. ;o)
LOL. proud to be a capitalist dog. lol.
i hope it holds up, for their well being.
Ass Napkin Mike
Most of the tourist places are packed. Playa Negra, a little south of Tamirindo is a surfing destination, not too crowded and has some houses on the beach with pools that are for rent. Watch out for Easter the beaches are packed with locals.
Jake,
Brazil has had, dictatorship (until early 1980s), hyperinflation (1980s), debt default (Dec 1987), 26.5% baseline interest rate (Nov 2002 on the eve of the Presidential elections) and a maxi currency devaluation (Jan 1999 — US dollar went from parity to USD 0.40/BRL in the span of a couple of weeks) in my life. I lived through it all in Brazil. None of this ever led to riots or social unrest. The Brazilian, by essence, is very passive and non-confrontational. If you check out our history, there are no revolutions. Every abrupt watershed event was brought about at the behest of the political elites.
And if none of those events took the country down, I am confident the credit crisis won’t either.
The pain of the credi crunch will be felt the hardest in countries where consumers live off credit. It’s just not the case in emerging markets. The hit to emerging markets will be primarily focused on export markets, which are 15-20% of GDP.
The hit to the US will be in consumer spending (67% of GDP) AND exports (12% of GDP).
Ahh, I got ya! I did misread that… My b!
You make phenomenal points about Japan, but with that GDP loss they experienced, that’s just messing with dangerous territory if you were to invest in them now, as I would presume you probably aren’t!
@ass napkin
Costa Rica is great, though pretty much entirely dedicated to tourism.
Get out of San Jose as fast as you can. If you want to see the Arenal volcano the Arenal Observatory Lodge is freakin’ cool. It is the one on an adjacent mountainslope (NOT IN FORTUNA). You can walk onto Arenal itself from their property. When I was there we had a nice room that had a window for one full wall. I got a BJ while watching Arenal shoot fireballs out of its top.
I also recommend flying a small charter to the Osa Peninsula and Corcavado National Park. We stayed in a tent camp (which was great but we are into that sort of thing) so I don’t have any specific recommendations for high roller accommodations. The beaches there do not have the warm water that the Atlantic side has but it is nice to be in a place that is remote, hot and humid with nothing to do but swim in a nearby river and watch the scarlet macaws fly by.
Oh, and get ready for terrible food. There is a reason why there aren’t Costa Rican restaurants in the US.
All this “guns” and “Brazil” shit.
Just nationalize our banks, let them take their fuckin’ bad bundles with them, start the infrastructure work, kill the rich and print mo money. USA will be fine.
We don’t NEED anybody in America making over $100 grand year.
I did manage to buy into a couple bargains when GS was at $76, MS at $18. They produced 26% and 30% gains for me so far. Let’s see if the recovery continues and spreads to other financials.
Looks like the Saudis are taking Schiff’s advice:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/asian-shares-down-before-us/story.aspx?guid={B7E16209-437A-4265-A883-F3AC9F48AB5A}&siteid=yahoomy
Try Venezuela rather than Brazil. Long live Hugo!
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Venezuela-opposition-reflects-loss-economists/story.aspx?guid={24B67540-4A96-445F-8B24-9F75431094C7}
John Wayne Gacy’s going nuts tonight and I think he is correct:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
Phil you’re starting to sound like a douche. Seems like the main reason for you going to back to Brasil is that you can’t get laid in the US.
Something is going on tonight, Denninger’s explanation as good as anything… futures down what 20 on no known news??
John says-very intersting…
Brake up the banking cartel. If you haven’t already watched this, it’s probably worth your time and then short GS with impunity in the morning.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/bill-moyers-simon-johnson-financial-crisis/
And a really scary read by MISH.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-uk-eurozone-banks-face-meltdown.html
I SEE DEAD BULLS.
this just showed up in my blog reader
RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
Yes, dog you’re a douche too. Didn’t mean to ignore you.
Pn,
I get chicks here, but dont enjoy the process (not to brag, but I’m a pretty good looking dude). I’ve actually been unhappy here for the past 2 years (been here for 3 and a half now — the first year and a half, everything was new, so no complaints).
Truth be told, I was never a fan of US culture, but I figured New York might be different. It turned out to be worse than what I saw in Boston (where I went to college). Most people I come across are highly individualistic and only interested in career-advancement. I dont see a lot in the way of true friendship or cool people.
I make decent money (which is what has kept me here), but with the bonuses and promotions now on freeze in the last 6 months, there’s really no reason to stay here. With the economic component no longer seducing me, I might as well return to where I’m happy. The Central Bank opportunity began to materialize when I visited Rio on vacay in December and talked to friends.
:::CNN FRONT PAGE NEWS:::
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/02/16/face.transplant.patient/index.html
>Most people I come across are highly individualistic and only interested in career-advancement.
You on the other hand, are only interested in making money an easy lays? Godspeed Phil.
Money is important, but it’s not the end all be all. If it were, I’d stay here. Easy lays are part of being young — nothing wrong with that.
In Rio I have dozens of friends. Here, I have 5 people I trust and hang out with — and none are American. It’s that simple.
DSB,
Man, that’s a sad story.
It’s party time! GM gets another 4 billion – whoooohooo
Fly, your post was pretty bearish but you’re net long. You going to change that bias tomorrow?
This the end. The bull dies at 3:00.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGTe1vF679U&feature=related
The horror. The horror.
Major currency crosses are all dislocating by 1% or more, except the all-anglo crosses, but everything is falling against the dollar.
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency-investing
Anyone have more color on what Denninger is saying about a major entity (maybe an E. European country) potentially going kaputt right now?
Maybe it’s Romania. You can’t pay debts off in goats.
Europe hardest hit…makes sense.
What if the Government put the gazillions of bailout dollars to purchase stocks, rather than supporting banks, mortgages, etc.
Would folks not then have more money to pay their mortgages, those without mortgages could purchase second homes, buy cars, banks would not have to worry about run on funds etc., and banking could become profitable again.
Seems it would be equitable for everyone – not just those in over their heads.
Probably too simplistic (and good for us all).
It’s late and my brain is fried, so feel free to tell me how stupid this idea would be.
Think this is better than moving to Rio.
i have come to conclusion that market going to 600 short term maybe 400ish longer term. regardless Devil dog is correct but still an idiot as he just put a wild guess out there with no backup or long bounce plays.
The new greenback, coming soon to a convenience store near you: Novus Ordo Seclorum
j0sh1ngU –
maybe so, but i have come to the conclusion that devildog is a complete jackass, liar, bullshitter who doesn’t trade, but sits in his parent’s basement making up conspiracy theories of bullshit. he’s the guy who claims to have a ferrari (no pic), claims to have gone to college with the founder of dupont (who died over 100 years ago), and thinks the market will hit new lows tomorrow (check his posts every day). he’s a fag, a piker, and a leech.
Interesting that gold’s up to $952.
Stocks are too hard to make money from for the moment. Look for easy trades in currencies.
Short the fucking Euro with impunity now that it’s broken through major resistance levels.
Buy dollar Yen
Is this the hammer?
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
For my friend the Devilled Dawg.
(note to J — I never sold my gold, but added GDX in size last week)
_______
^^^
Third post of this item.
Denny doesn’t get this much attention on his own blog.
Please read the blog before posting
ps: WOWee-wow-wow-WOW!!
You’ll say “‘Wow, read this muthuh-FUCK-uh,’ every TIME.”
j —
What’s the best way to short the Euro if you don’t normally trade currencies? Is there an ETF we can hit?
_________
Jake, EUO is double-short the Euro.
you can also short FXE
Mr. Limm – You have some ‘esplainin to do!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeaBH8CUU9NY&refer=home
Taxing each bowel movement in Australia:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24659589-5005369,00.html
Who says the government can’t come up with innovative solutions?
Jake.
Dunno, because I just the trade interbank spot price and never thought of trading an ETF like product.
I recall once that Fly mentioned various ETF’s for various currencies. Then of course there are the futures.
j will never have to pay that tax.
smiley face emoticon here.
The default looks like it may be coming from Ukraine.
http://www.cbonds.info/all/eng/news/index.phtml/params/id/424192
Jim, I’ve got your new currency right here: The CAD! Oh damn! I blurted it out…
Watcher/Richard — thanks for the info, fellahs.
____
Japan is drunk (or high)!
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=3ef_1234806777
Monkeys will rule the world
http://uk.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=98769&videoChannel=2603&refresh=true
A Depression will do that to a finance minister.
Ireland not looking so hot either:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ireland-default-fears-rise/story.aspx?guid={56269F08-B818-4D69-A704-D73D2E8DE43E}&dist=msr_1