Go get your cocaine biscuits and get ready to buy stocks.
If that wasn’t enough, both CVX and XOM beat the estimates.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts
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Fly Is “The Blogfather”
GW is “The BlogSon” Son
COCAINE BISCUITS! My favorite!
CNBC chick looks like she was up doin’ LINES all night!
flibbertigibbet
I told ya…never bet againt “Big Mike”…it is scientifically a losing bet…
So, Q1 will look to be worse than Q4?
No. Q1 will be +10% GDP and CVX and XOM will, miraculously, make even more money, even with oil at $35.
Off to Mickey Mouse’s House!
How come Ross Perot, Jr. doesn’t have Dad’s ears?
I knew Fly was coming to OTown to see the Mouse because they put up an amber alert this AM on I-4.
Fly are you staying at the safari themed hotel with the giraffes that walk up to your balcony? I’ve been thinking about taking the old lady down there for a long weekend. We’ve never been. Have fun with the kids and do your part to stimulate the economy.
Just like unemployment, it’s all about how you arrive at the number.
From Marketwatch:
The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter but the decline would have been worse except that the government counts an unwanted buildup of goods on store shelves as growth.
A clearer picture of the scope of the weakness in the fourth quarter, which excludes the inventory buildup, contracted at a 5.1% pace, the weakest in 28 years.
Even with inventories, the growth rate is the worst since 1982.
Mmmm! Gravy and biscuits sprinkled with cocaine, mouthwatering.
Don’t forget to sprinkle those cocaine biscuits with angel dust…
Can’t you all see by definition…we are now in a bull market…doesn’t it feel good?………
The big three should take advantage of the GDP news, and offer -3.8% financing to move some new vehicles.
Can I get my cocaine biscuits with a side of ecstasy eggs?
long positions working: EGO, SQNM, DXO
long positions waiting: SWHC, LOPE, AFAM, DVAX
cash: 30%
short term bull market still on…cocaine biscuits…MMMM
I only have one long TNA, everything else is in short positions, mostly I am in cash…60%
Thoughts for today: Defensive. Avoiding stressful situations, do not be overly eager to press forward, this is not a time where you can make your influence felt, sharpen your ability to foresee consequences before you act, nothing hectic, no lusting for a desired outcome. Do less…not more.
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XOM : -33% QonQ but theyre just showing the +11% YoY and “best year ever” headlines, all firmly in the rearview. I will give it an hour or so of trading then decide depending on what the market wants to do.
any pop today will be an excellent shorting opportunity… time to pick the pockets of Jack “the Gadfly” Bouroudjian
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24759973
Mustard fucking seeds, assholes…
I smell a “panic” rally…
Fly. I will watch your house while you are gone.
I will keep an eye on Fly, Jr. also if he stays here.
Fly,
I will house sit while you are gone, and try some of that rich man’s whiskey I’ve heard so much about…gypsies in the palace!
These market turns are killing my ulcer. Another week like this and you’ll soon find me and the dog the 21st and 22nd resident of Jarbidge, NV.
Google Earth that shit, it looks like paradise.
http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=280744&ID2=291811449&ssid=2&directory=519&bm=0&filename=Jan3009.pdf
John, “if it ain’t Roque don’t fix it”, on the shiny yellow shit.
Donny
you still in fas? got back in myself pre-market after selling my faz.
alrighty then….. on my 2nd cup of coffee,
what kind of CNBC manipulated fuckery are we up against today?
I’m thinking all sell prices should be set egregiously high so the shorts can’t get back in.
Here is an alternative to listening to CNBC. I found this site last October and it has helped me.
http://www.tradethenews.com/
.
RIMM on fire
Back on March 9, 1776 Adam Smith’s Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations went on sale for the price of 1.8 pounds sterling at a time when the median family made perhaps 30 pounds a year. That one book (admittedly a big book and an expensive one) cost six percent of the median family’s annual income. In the United States today, median family income is $50,000 a year and Smith’s Wealth of Nations costs $7.95 at Amazon (in the Bantam Classics edition). The 18th Century British family could buy 17 copies of the Wealth of Nations out of its annual income. The American family in 2009 can buy 6,000 copies: a multiplication factor of 350.
Ported from last thread:
Anyone notice XOM and CVX talking about increased refinery margins?
Anyone?
Anyone?
Buehler?
__
Buy a bank stock and go outside and play…
The Next Bailout to come-
Underfunded Pension funds for Public Workers
“But now, because of a combination of too-high estimates on investment returns, too-low annual contributions, and the current stock market losses, those pension funds are woefully underfunded!
Many funds’ 2008 market losses won’t be revealed for months. But the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College estimates that state pension plans have losses greater than $865 billion, a decline of nearly 40% in just the past year.
The National Bureau of Economic Research says the value of pension promises already made by US state governments will grow to approximately $7.9 trillion in just 15 years. But the same report points out that states are unlikely to be able to keep those promises: “We conservatively predict a 50% chance of aggregate underfunding greater than $750 billion and a 25% chance of at least $1.75 trillion in underfunding.”
Put in current dollars, to bring those pension funds up to appropriate levels would cost almost $2 trillion. And while the Federal government can just “print” the money, the cities and states have no such option. That means we, the taxpayers, are facing hefty local tax hikes to pay for required pension plan contributions. Or we’ll face other cuts in state and municipal spending, for safety or education or Medicaid.”
looks like we’re trying to go lower..
we’ll, until CNBC chimes in with another made up story of false positives……
I feel Steve Lies’man, is trying to use CNBC as a tool to jump off his fabricated ideas hoping at a later time the president will jump on them, meanwhile the fabricated ideas falsely move the market, all the while Steve is doing this hoping one day he will win the Nobel Prize by claiming at a later time that “he” came up with the idea….
just my opinion from years of listening to the fucker….
Boy my SRS is smokin’
I bought it at 52.39
.
Fuck Liesman- He is a fat liberal fuck who knows shit. I love it when Rick Santelli stomps him. Santelli is the only reason to watch CNBC, He is the only true realist in the bunch and knows what he is talking about. He gives you the perspective of the traders
LOL, the game is no longer beat the earnings estimates. Its beat the economic estimates. Doesn’t change the outlook and earnings of the individual companies. Banks are still fucked. -20% GDP or +100%.
keep on burning WYNN, keep burning.
SKF and SRS ready to roar?
SRS will get nice boost..SPG reported this am guidance for next year is not to beleivable..more impt divy will be 90pct stock…makes REITS less attractive to divy investors, easier to short as well as not on hook for divy..VNO did this 60/40 now SPG and they were the “well capitalized” REITS..so what about the weak ones?..there wil be more of this to come
General Growth needs to refianance its debt today, or its bankrupcy time. Could be a major impetus for SRS.
Made a nice profit on SRS (sold 58.00 from 52.39) and BGZ ( sold 66.52 from 62.65) today. Great morning!
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anyone shorting AMZN here at these levels?
xom is a freak!!!!!!!
Anyone notice Sam Zell sold his entire commercial real estate portfolio at the top….I think Black Rock bot it and have already marked down 10%….they report in a few weeks wonder how bad it will be ?
Jake those margins were actually pretty good no ?
then he bought shitty newspapers, great you tube vid of him talking to the press about his due diligence experiences. will post. (re: zell)
Anonymous…XOM is hardly a freak. They have a great balance sheet, conservative management…they are one of the few “safe-haven” stocks left out there.
Damn right Pete. Can’t you imagine XOM walking up to you and saying “If you want to live, come with me.”?
I’m done with XOM and the oils. I will watch it today and probably cover my shorts, got in at 81. The fucker is just too hard to figure out. Going to concentrate on attcking more of the banks and commercial RE.
T MOE – I think so
the midget is on TV now…..
Keep an eye on QQQQ. If it stays below 29 we could see panic selling.
Short as much as I could borrow of RJF @ 20.36 avg. looking for sub 18…apparently the fact the SB is being played in a RJ stadium holds this up for 2 days. Please.
GDP #’s half baked.
It’s all about capacity utilization and forward demand.
This market is going lower. It had a chance to rally and then visit/test the NOV lows but I do believe in a good possibility of reaching those lows in short order.
This economy is terribly ill and Obamanomics will only make it worse.
Off to the gym!
as I said earlier, excellent shorting opportunity… However, too many clowns are short again… look for a stall at the 8 level and then covering. If we get a clean break through of 125 points, all bets are off.
covering half here…
my investment thesis has been simple, goes back to Ronald Reagan breaking the flight controllers union: median income in the US is 25,000. It likely dropped to 24,000 in the past few months.
I have retired my post at the university.
Covered 1100 RJF @ 19.36…too quick and easy.
A NO LOSE TRADE –
FAS feb $15 calls are selling for $0.50-0.60. Sell them in size. No fuckin way FAS gets to $15 in feb let alone ever. I’m being bold here and selling feb $12.50 calls too.
prof
Median income is 45,000 in the US , or was. I think you’re about 15 years behind.
you’re looking at household income my friend and even there you are far too high…
Question for the group here:
How many people do you know that have mortgage balances over $900K, have not made a payment in awhile, and their property value is less than what they owe?
The men in hazmat suits are coming…
The men in hazmat suits are coming…
I think you have to be long GE here. No?
Bennet Sedacca
08:55:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Reviewing the GDP
At first glance, the GDP number was a positive surprise. But hang on, I beg to differ.
Pesky little numbers like durable goods were down 22.4% with non-durables down 7.1%.
Exports were -19.7% (Global Depression anyone?).
What caused the upside surprise? Federal spending rose 5.8%.
I believe any rally is a fade in both stocks AND treasuries.
Bennet Sedacca
09:45:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
More on GDP and the economy
Another positive ‘surprise’ was that inventories rose. Great, just wheat we need, more stuff on the shelves that go unsold in a Recession/Depression.
More importantly, and I cannot stress this enough…..
Folks are comparing the Obama stimulus plan to FDR’s 1933 plans. There are some not-so-subtle differences however. 300,000 people worldwide have been let go from banks and brokers. Many layoffs, like at Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Target (TGT) are at the headquarter/top management level. Granted, low payroll folks are getting the ax as well.
But let’s face it, the demographics of those getting laid off in the 1930’s is far different than that. Imagine asking a laid off PG/ Microsoft (MSFT)/TGT executive to pick up a shovel and build a road. Back in the 30’s, people were happy to do anything for any amount of money.
This is a virtuous cycle in my opinion, a topic I will be writing about soon.
Risks still remain high.
yep, sorry prof. you’re right.
Actually i was looking old per cap gdp.
Neil Sedaka–you have peered into the abyss and seen “the rigid rod of reality.” Your points are well taken.
I think this selloff is about Obama fucking himself on his honeymoon by letting Pelosi float that pork filled, bullshit spending turd and spewing populist rhetoric about how shameful wall street bonuses are.
I think you’re right, Soze. Obama suddenly becoming head of HR is a real negative. And now they’re going to have congressional investigation about wall street bonuses. These fuckwits don’t seem to realize that say stock brokers are paid on commission.
The spending plan is a complete shambles.
Long 3K DELL @ 9.72
Next up on crapvision…after Billy Mays and video professor ads…Darren ‘the axe spray douche’ Revelle to report on chicken wings. Pathetic.
i think XOM haters need to check out what the P/E was during a bad spell of earnings the last time the earnings dropped. the 1998-2000 stretch or even the dip at 2002-2003. once the stock hit a floor, that’s it. the P/E went as high as 30.
Obama takes a different tack than Bush.
Bush would say everything is rosy and AOK.
Obama says the sky is falling (and thus don’t blame me) to lower expectations.
They both lie and suck(ed) big time.
TraderC
His stimulus package is a brown bag of turd.
The more Biden drones on, the more the market tanks.
j-
Good call on buying gold on the dips earlier this week. I bought some GLD at 87.20 a few days ago and sitting on a nice gain.
Do you think it pushes higher?
Why doesn’t Obama just be painfully honest and name his plan:
NO CHILD LEFT A DIME
Vladimir Obama!!..he is unions bitch…he will spend so much useless money its scary…just get long precious metals and related equities as he will go nuts spending on non productive shit…quite scary
Yea,
I think it will Moe. But I think it’s a little crowded here and look to buy it back on a dip. Dips a freaking vicious though. a few days ago when it hit 875 it looked like the bottom was falling out of it.
I’m thinking of buying it ag Stg when we dip
Long 10k GE @ 12.35
Wish me luck.
Did anyone catch Erin talking about Art’s bottom this morning?
MOOBER- Good luck.
Fil Zucchi
11:15:00 AM
Positions in SRS, gold, USH9
Randoms
* There are IM’s circulating that comments by Senators Conrad and Nelson suggest the stimulus package in the current form is dead on arrival because of bipartisan concerns.
* Simon Property Group (SPG) is generally considered the untouchable of REITs. Even in the depth of the November meltdown it was able to close meaningful refis at +200bps. type rates, i.e. almost “bubble days” spreads. That this morning the company chose to pay 90% of the dividend in stock pretty much sums up where commercial real estate is heading, UltraShort Real Estate (SRS) performance notwithstanding. And I won’t even go off on the idea of paying a stock dividend: let’s see – I now own more shares of the same size pie. If the stock keeps plunging I lose even more money; and I gotta pay taxes on the dividend to boot? Yeah, sign me up for that deal.
market feels like it wants to crash from here, just fall through a heap.
Zucchini– Exactly.
That like a snake eating it’s own tail to stay alive.
GE is the tell
SHOW ME THE MONEY….lol
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-02-03-bank-robberies_x.htm
aahhhh bullshit, this sucks, I’m taking the snowmobile out for a rip instead
Just look at SLV go. I sold some covered feb $13 calls in the AM but I should have waited.
You know this bonus thing is really shitty looking for the banks. How does Obama put together a another bailout package while they’re paying bonuses.
No wonder he’s shitty. I actaully don’t blame the kid. It’s also the reason why he’s pissed.
Sold some Euro, looks really shitty. This thing could be down to 1.2500 by monday which is a huge level.
I think its time for Dennis Kneale is an imbecile, Part XVII
What would the effect be if the uptick rule is reinstated?
Any of you frackers buying the BOOM?
I have 2200 of the BOOM.
Today I am daytrading just XLF,GS,XLE.
Long and tight (stops).
You can be sure this market will be down 200 today. We will at the very least test Nov. lows maybe next week. Selling FAS $15 and $12.5 FEB calls ALL day long. This POS will see $5 in the not so distant future.
CAP that sounds like non-sense, if you are so sure that FAS will be $5 in not so distant future – should not you buy puts rather than selling calls? I mean 0.60 Feb call is ok but you will make a lot more than 0.60 cents if you buy puts now and it goes to $5 from current levels of $9.50.
You can bet the PPTm will have a massive media blitz near the close or Sun night. It will be interesting to see what they fabricate.
I went to Home Depot and Lowes in Southern New Hampshire this weekend and employees were just standing around. There were so few customers in the stores the employees had nothing to do.
I’m going to do more local retail research this weekend. I’m guessing everything but WalMart and Target will be empty.
Still shorting GE to $12.15
RE: FAS selling calls vs buying puts. I could buy the Feb $5 puts for around 0.25 a pop. But FAS would need to close way below $5 for me to make money. I could buy the $7.50 puts for 85 cents. Then again I would only double my money if we closed at say $5.75 or so. I would rather sell the calls and get paid the premium. If it so happens FAS goes to $15 or so, I will end up with a short position in FAS. Eventually FAS will go down to $5. Its a matter of time. And I will make money short FAS. Besides if FAS spikes up from here, I can sell the $17.50 calls and the $20 calls. For me selling calls is like getting free money. I love free money.
new post.