CAT is firing 20,000 people because growth in China is non-existent. Despite a zero interest rate policy by the Fed, mortgage rates have been soaring over the past 10 days; and t-bills have been getting mud stomped.
And, despite all of the bullshit, the market is ripping to the upside.
Whether you like it or not, the market is going higher because it is tired of going down. Instead of sacrificing your bullshit portfolio for your beliefs, play the upside.
As you know, as of Friday, I had a slight bias to the downside. However, after seeing the market respond to this mornings horrific news, I added to my FAS position. Without doing the math, I am probably equally balanced long and short.
I see oil/gas stocks are running with their socks off. However, there is no way I am buying them, ahead of their numbers. XOM is overvalued on so many levels, now constituting more than 30% of the DUG. I must hold down my short oil bias, even if it’s a short term painful one, for the sake of all that is good and reasonable about mankind.
I am really digging the action in the banks, particularly the European ones: BCS, DB and IRE. But, I question the sustainability of this move. I’d rather hold onto, and possibly add more to, my Godly FAS position. And, let’s not forget, PFG, another position of mine, has $20 written all over it.
In short, the bulls are playing with their imaginary friend, Mr. Reflation. They believe he is real and will save them from the angry, fire breathing, dragon in the cave down the road. For now, I will play along and see if it can make me some money, as opposed to digging in my heels. However, at the end of the day, understand, that dragon will come and scorch the faces off of those who are against it.
UPDATE: I sold out of my UYM position, around $13.22
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Shakn’ like a leaf. Wanted to short 1000 shares of ABX at the market and accidentally added a 0 (in a hurry) and was short 10,000 @39.94 and covered @39.33.
Thank the Lord.
damn trader! thats madness.
“However, at the end of the day, understand, that dragon will come and scorch the faces off of those who are against it.” – priceless
I am tired of hearing that all of the bad news is already priced in. How can the market price in the loss of 56,000 jobs in one day? How can they foresee that number? The dragon is real and will come again
nice call on gold senor tropicana. fcx on fire.
These rallies are simply baiting back in the suckers. We still head down very soon, and this will only make it more painful.
Tmoe:
Nothing is ever priced in. Unlike others, I think the market is as dumb as a pot of clams in white wine.
However, sometimes it takes time to capitulate the bulls. Also, taking a look at the Dow, we are not exactly in nose bleed territory.
Just make sure that you are prepared to sustain a sharp short covering rally.
So you’re going to fire Wood?
TraderCaddy Says:
Shakn’ like a leaf. Wanted to short 1000 shares of ABX at the market and accidentally added a 0 (in a hurry) and was short 10,000 @39.94 and covered @39.33.
Thank the Lord.
January 26th, 2009 at 11:12 am
_____
you probably should thank Joe Pesci instead……
Caddy – be careful with those fat fingers!
Fire wood? Huh?
PPT, top 10 etf’s
1 GLD 5 4 3 1 5 3.94
2 IAU 5 4 3 1 5 3.94
3 DGL 5 4 3 1 5 3.91
4 DGP 5 4 2 1 5 3.66
5 GDX 5 4 2 2 4 3.54
6 CEF 5 4 2 1 4 3.46
7 SLV 5 4 1 1 5 3.41
8 DBS 5 4 1 1 4 3.24
9 PVI 1 4 5 1 4 3.21
10 FXE 5 1 3 1 5 3.19
Thank you Joe Pesci (and Vinny, too).
Fly:
There’s only an inflation dragon but it very well could scorch the longs. You don’t wanna believe it, reflation is real enough and it will happen. The trouble comes when the fed may be forced to raise rates with a sick economy.
I’ve been thinking about this a little more. i used to think that reflation would raise the market, now I’m not so sure. in fact it could tank it as stagflation is absolutely toxic for stocks.
However whatever happens gold is going up.
the upside move is waning as suspected…
Puff The Magic Dragon…
Fuck this rally. I’m going to double down on DUG. Fuck it. The world’s demand is disappearing a lot faster than the world’s supply (over the short term).
“However, sometimes it takes time to capitulate the bulls. Also, taking a look at the Dow, we are not exactly in nose bleed territory.”
Well you need a few gawd damn bulls to create capitulation. If there are only bears talking about the banks and job losses, it creates a situation like what we’re seeing right now. They add fuel to their own detriment.
J:
Reflation is imaginary. The velocity of money is non-existent.
Be careful betting against the rally so early in the day. I want to buy more SRS/EEV/DUG, but will wait until the end of the day to do so.
Leading index up first time since June: Conference Board.
US Existing Home Sales Rise on Record Price Slump
What, good news? Hard to believe it is even possible.
@go2mars
Andrew Gould, chairman and chief executive of Schlumberger, predicted a “very significant decline in [oil and gas] production” if the rate at which the industry drilled remained at its current depressed level for a year.
He said that oil companies had been curtailing their business faster as oil prices collapsed in the past months quicker than during the last such contraction in1998.
The company employs about 87,000 people and has already said it would cut 1,000 jobs in North America. Mr Gould said that he could not rule out more job cuts in the first half of this year.
It is a dramatic turnabout for a company that just a few months ago said a shortage of engineers and geologists was plaguing the oil industry.
Mr Gould also warned that the recent sharp decline in the price of oil was making some fields uneconomic.
“At current prices, most of the new categories of hydrocarbon resources are not economic to develop,” Mr Gould said, adding there would be worse to come.
“We expect 2009 activity to weaken across the board with the most significant declines occurring in North American gas drilling, Russian oil production enhancement and in mature offshore basins.”
Yes, Fly. V is not moving. However the thing people forget is that they will simply print more money… And they will until it does move.
So what? Printing more money does not ensure inflation. You are assuming it will, based upon the machinations of Argentina.
I am betting that people will continue to hoard cash, effectively offsetting the presses.
what’s for lunch Fly? oysters on the half shell? pastrami on rye? flank steak?
SWHC current 2.49
2.48 x 2.49
$3+ Imminent
You’ve been warned.
The morons who control this market have flabby abs and gay handlebar mustaches. They are so schizo they wear straight jackets to work.
They loved the reflation trade at the beginning of December. Then a few weeks later, they hated the reflation trade and went back to the deflationary vortex of certain death for a few weeks.
Now they love the reflation trade again. Good luck figuring this bullshit out.
I’m thinking crab bisque with a mozz, grape tomatoes, basil, oil, good balsamic (not that $10 bottle shit) on a baguette sandwich.
Fly I sold MTR today and SJT even tho oil stocks are rising they were falling off the cliff. Combined loss of 12,000. MTR cut its dividend from .78-.58.40.38 monthly to .04 quarterly TODAY, and SJT cut their monthly dividend from .38 to .04 monthly
Bad times ahead- this was the ‘bailout now’ I needed so I just dumped them.
PS… Sr Fly apparently you can discuss your lunch with impunity -crab bisque, balsamic vinegar, etc….
.
got to ask…pastrami from carnegie deli? or is that for tourists?
Some of the Bank stocks (STI,FTI,USB (downgraded)) are fading faster than Eliot Spitzer the third time around with No. 9.
Great pastram. Not just for tourists. I like Katz’s
how about a warm Southern Chicken Sandwich and Chipotle cripy chicken wrap of the dollar menu?
Weakness in regional banks propping up. I think RKH is today’s tell.
Carnegie Deli is for tourists……
Yes printing money does push inflation up as inflation is a monetary problem first and foremost, as milt said.
if the quantity of money rises as a ratio to goods and service in the economy we have inflation.
Now V will begin to move once the quantity of money becomes too large to be ignored.
At present business is rejigging their activity for a large fall in demand. And they’ll keep shedding and shredding until they reach some sort of equilibrium, when that happens don’t expect 40% discount from the retailers as they won’t have the stock to get caught with that shit again. That’s when you begin to see prices moving higher.
You’re argument basically boils down to the view that V is not responsive to quantity of money. It doesn’t happen as it is ignoring the fact that eventually the damn wall will break.
On Man v Food last night the Adam guy pigged out at several NY delis.
He has a good job.
looks to me like, despite the highly bullish bias, we will end either flat or slightly down. look how bias the put/call ratio is as American goons trade based on talking heads.
shorting the dollar will be the trade soon after all. why? europe is actually far more free market oriented than here because they have education/healthcare, a much wealthier population (welfare pays more there than the median income in US), they will recover much faster due to a more educated population and keeping out of Bush’s wars (and now Obamas). When that becomes obvious, expect the dollar to eventually go into crisis. An example of how un-free our system is: GWB or 98% of the CEO’s in this country. They’re an example of survival of the un-fittest. Europe has plenty of these, but nothing like here due to education for the masses, not just the rich.
If you want to bring back the “free-market” in labor and management, you need to tax the shit out of the trust fund babies who run this country and pump up education. Otherwise the shit will keep floating.
J:
Money supply was through the roof in 1933.
QED
bread from zabars?
fuck zabars
Usually, I am with ya. But not buying FAS today, just can’t do it.
Thain desperately spinning to save his post BAC rep with Bartiromo acting as his PR shill.
CNBC is ever more useless.
Fly- I like KRE as a better regional bank indicator. Doesn’t have much XLF duplication in the top holdings like
RKH.
My purchase of FAS is more of a response to wanting more longs to offset shorts, than thinking FAS is going to kickass.
Fyi.
nice, looks like harry and david all over again.
Hahahahahahahaha. Fly, what are you having for lunch today? Is Carnegie deli hip? Or have the yuppies taken it over? Fly, what did you read when you took your dump today?
on the shortside, dug looks best.
I loved katz’s. Their Rye pastrami is to die for and the pickle was perfect.
They put so much pastrmi in between the bread that used to make me feel sick.
I was reading your obituary. ROFLMAOsfgdhdftgdzfhdfg
Remember, I have a time machine.
Does anybody feels bad for John Thain?
I feel sorry for him…literally; to these guys, money is irrelevant.
Fly, what is QED?
WHAT?! How did I die?!
I have 7 or 8 times as much FAZ and SDS as FAS – I bought more FAS to stop the rally, that’s all. My fucking name is John Thain so that is why I use anonymous – comprende?
CNBC needs to have a Gasparino/Kneal cagematch so there would actually be something worth watching.
What man with any hair on his ass talks about a “perfect pickle”?
This is one of the most shocking charts I have seen reguarding the bank market caps. Blue is market cap in 2nd qtr 2007 versus green which is market cap today. BofA and Cit are amazing.
http://docs.google.com/gview?a=v&attid=0.1&thid=11f13d6de77b3f51&mt=application%2Fpdf
Gasparino’s on a rampage today……
Speaking of pickles, isn’t there a place in NYC that sell just pickles?
Any good?
Gasper + Kneal + Bartiromo + The ponytailed Klingon on Fast Money into the Thunder Dome with chain saws.
No men enter, no men leave.
Yea, it was through the roof and the market did respond to it actually, however you need to be very careful looking at the 30’s as there was a heap of shit going on with FDR’s silly policies that kept the economy dead in the water.
FDR also had a policy doing his best to prevent wage cuts and trying to centralize business and the respoence was further contraction as he went along.
The depression is actually a misnomer. there was no such thing as a Depression. It was a whole decade of complete policy mismanagement starting from Hoover. The point being that the depression was a series of rolling recessions as a result of policy response by the economy.
Murray Rothbard’s book on the depression is the only one worth reading as he understood it perfectly. Rothbard was a political nutcase but he really did understand the depression for the economic angle.
It’s the 70’s you need to look at from the point when Nixon went off gold. It back to the future of the 70’s.
John Thain can say or do nothing to save is reputation. He’s a flat out lying cockroach, and he’s been lying since he took the post of Merrill. When do his repeated lies of full transparency become a legal problem for him? His egregious actions surpass Dick Fuld.
These fuckers should have to pay it all back.
Shorted more KIM at 15.80. She is looking weak
LOL Chihuahua.
What about Stan? Stan Oneil? That pathetic fucker tried to sell Merril to Wachovia. Hahahahaha. Wait a minute, he got away with $60 mill?
Engorged at Les Halles (Bourdain’s old joint) last weekend when I visited. Good mussels for lunch. Get the tomato with chorizo ones. Nothing like good French food prepared and served by Mexicans.
The first order of business when the financials began blowing up should have been to take away the half-billion in comp Fuld pulled down over the past ten years along with the similar pay of every one of these fucks.
They, their boards and all of the c level execs should, at least, lose the money they made.
Now Thain is offering to pay back his office makeover. Fuck that. Take it all.
“quod erat demonstrandum” Latin which translates as “that which was to be demonstrated”. The phrase is written in its abbreviated form, QED, at the end of a mathematical proof or philosophical argument, to signify that the last statement deduced was the one to be demonstrated, so the proof is complete.
I continue to say, short APOL with impunity (to $50)
Geez. Maria is sucking Thain’s knob
Wood:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q.E.D.
If delis are still going then I’m short DRI.
I’m thinking crab bisque with a mozz, grape tomatoes, basil, oil, good balsamic (not that $10 bottle shit) on a baguette sandwich.
What the flack kind of chamberer’s meal is that? Did you tweeze your eyebrow(s) as well, this morning?
_________________
I’m sorry Jake. I forgot you moved down south and keep an extra bottle of BBQ sauce under your bed.
How’s this for lunch?
Buttery biscuits, BBQ ribs a large side order of slaw and a tall glass of bourbon.
If you were thinking about TSO, $16-16.20 would be a nice entry here.
It goes to at least $20, and my target is $27.
_____________
How’s this for lunch?
Buttery biscuits, BBQ ribs a large side order of slaw and a tall glass of bourbon.
That sounds good, Armand. Just leave off those unnecessary first two.
Will you be taking in a Gabana runway show for your lunch repast as well?
________
I’m going with a grilled swordfish steak today.
Thanks Jake. That had to be said.
If delis are still going then I’m short DRI.
I know I said I really wanted to LBO Gibson Guitars, but if I really had my druthers, the best private company in America continues to be Brunkhorst’s Brands, the purveyors of the best deli meats in America — Boar’s Head Brand Deli Meats.
If you do not have Boar’s Head in your benighted berg, hasten to the sixth floor of your local jailhouse/high school gymnasium and leap off.
__________
“Lunch is for wimps.”
— Gordon Gekko
Anton I love that.
…shorting the dollar will be the trade soon after all. why? europe is actually far more free market oriented than here because they have education/healthcare, a much wealthier population (welfare pays more there than the median income in US), they will recover much faster due to a more educated population and keeping out of Bush’s wars (and now Obamas). When that becomes obvious, expect the dollar to eventually go into crisis. An example of how un-free our system is: GWB or 98% of the CEO’s in this country. They’re an example of survival of the un-fittest. Europe has plenty of these, but nothing like here due to education for the masses, not just the rich.
If you want to bring back the “free-market” in labor and management, you need to tax the shit out of the trust fund babies who run this country and pump up education. Otherwise the shit will keep floating.
Not a math professor, apparently.
Do a google search on European demographics, “professor.”
The one saving grace the Americans who just voted in a new socialist regime have, is a Europe that will show them the error of their ways a good ten to fifteen years beforehand.
Good luck with your investment thesis.
____________
AFAM – RSI 2 is under 1
This low volume pullback seems buyable.
Am I missing something?
I know a guy that is a deli manager for a large regional supermarket chain. The name brands, Boar’s Head, Carando, Land O’ Lakes, etc., are falling off in sales. People are buying economy brands instead, according to him.
WHAT?! How did I die?!
Colon blockage. It was the pastrami after all.
_________
It was colon blockage, but it wasn’t from the pastrami….it was from that perfect pickle…..
Sniper — that’s to be expected. Boar’s Head is the Tiffany of the market… no one comes close, but they are a good $1-$2 more per pound than the schit brands.
So now would be a good time to buy them out, is all I’m saying. Seriously, there’s no better managed brand in America. Not Coke, not Gillette, not anything.
_________
This will help colon probs. http://www.evercleanse.com Vince may sell this stuff. Get rid of the “spackle” deposits on your colon wall.
No doubt. Nobody makes head cheese better. And the blood loaf, mmmmm, tasty.
top that off with some limberger cheese, and a Moxie to wash it down, a little bit of Heaven here on Earth
trade the triangle, now
everyone and their uncle is saying S&P -> 700, 650, 600 via falling off a cliff.
it is not going to happen until everyone is not calling the same direction.
My only problem with this “cash hording” theory. How do you know they will horde US dollars? Rather then another form of asset(if not another currency)