I equate this mornings rebalancing act to getting punched in the balls, then putting on a safety cup, after the fact.
Look, I will not get everything right, day in and day out. But, at the end of the proverbial day, “The Fly” wins all the time. If you are new to this site and do not believe me, go ahead, bet against me and see where it gets you.
Anyone can make a few pesos on a lucky trade or hot steak. Try doing this shit for a decade or longer, then get back to me.
Back to my point. Bob Doll, asshole CIO from BLK, is driving his company into the fucking ground, with his circle jerk bullishness. As far as assets under management, Bob is a fucking God, with more than $300 billion under his guard. However, every time that man gets on CNBC or Bloomberg, he reminds me of Bill Miller, constantly apologizing for the markets.
He is doomed for abject failure.
Without a doubt, it sucks big time to be in the “long only” asset management field. I never quite understood the rationale behind forcing managers to be 95% long or more, at all times. As a result of such inane rules, the collective 401k plans in America have been set back a good decade or two.
Well done.
I’m not calling for a huge crash or anything—not yet at least. With regards to today’s moves, I just needed to put some cash to work, in order to hedge my longs—for peace of mind, if anything.
As of yesterday’s close, I was up 14% year to date. I don’t want to give it back, due to some misguided emotional hunch on the market. I much rather tailor my investments to reflect the dire scenario the world finds itself in, economically.
When in doubt, slow shit down.
UPDATE: This is where your fucking tax dollars are going. You have to love Thain and his American Psycho ways.
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The Fly is God. And Zombie is an Asshole
Market is going to crash.
You know this. Why aren’t you 100% short.
It’s all a big Ponzi scheme as we know — and finally – the gov’t can’t bullshit the world with fuckery.
Yesterday was a bullshit day. They happen. Back to the complete and utter destruction of Amerika.
O Knights of Nee, you are just and fair, and we will return
with a shrubbery.
It should crash, but not in January.
I just went from 50% long/ 10% short to 43% long 45% short.
I am done for the day. Too much work. This is exhausting stuff, yelling out all of those orders.
Off to see about a sandwich.
Bennet Sedacca
10:11:31 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Is the next problem child…
Suntrust Banks (STI)?
It sure trades like a problem child and given its money fund issues, its exposure to Southeast commercial real estate, and its disposal of its crown jewel, Coca Cola (KO) stock, me thinks so.
You know it’s me because I am saying long ITB (homies etf) for a daytrade. Long @8.70.
Master Fly, I thought you were 90% cash yesterday? You’re already hedging your new positions? Come on now, go to cash until you know it’s the right time to jump in.
hey JPM is $1 below the price Jimmie bought it, time to load up
Plenty of fuckery to go around. I’ve lightened up on my longs. I have a few preferreds and a nat gas stock, but mostly I am short now with a decent cash position.
This thing can get out of hand to the downside today. Of course, I will go with whatever flow there is to follow.
As a sidenote, and I know most of you don’t care about this stuff, but Mercury is retrograde, as it was last fall when we had our worst declines.
On a lighter note, I believe the Shamwow is still alive:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28693606
So Fly, are you a bear or a bull? Are you on drugs? How can you exclaim your greatness every day as a permabear then change your position just like that to a bull? You got suckered in. Oh well, maybe you should try changing your prescriptions. Tell me what you’re doing tomorrow so I can do the opposite and make money bwahahah.
Cubs:
You must have missed out yesterday. I went long, like an idiot follower of Cramer.
I am just cleaning up the mess I made yesterday.
Bod Doll is an idiot. He used to be the CIO for Merrill Investment Management Arm before they bought into Blackrock. Go figure. He was always bullish
Insider…be careful with BAC and JPM…just because “smart” people bought some of the stock does not make it a good investment at this time. Warren Buffet can attest to this. He has been skizzled by his recent buys.
Paxson:
My greatness is measured by my overall success, navigating this market—not by one or two days runs.
Now go fuck a bag of flour.
This is no doubt a very difficult tape. I haven’t covered any of my shorts from yesterday. On the other hand, I’m not happy with what I see. The DOW is down a bunch but stocks don’t seem to be dropping as they should.
Still, I don’t wanna be long. Not easy.
These are the same “smart” people that got us into this mess.
Lewis and Thain going to hold a pay for view WWF type match.
Clothes optional.
a bag of flour…rofl
Ha Ha Ha Thain is the man. A commode on legs 40k Ha Ha
What I want to know, is that PPT machine spitting out buy or sell right now for the S&P?
its been a sell the whole time.
Buying a little TOL for a trade.
3.99% 30 year mortgage should move some inventory.
bears can’t seem to press the bulls here …commodes beginning to reassert some leadership… POT is notable in this regard…TLT looks like it wants to get 107 in a hurry
RTC Inventory is starting to clear in places like Las Vegas
TraderCaddy,
Who’s offering those rates? 30 yr fixed is running around 5% or higher in the Midwest.
Adding more ITB (homies etf) for a trade.
This is what the boys are buying at the Bellview Hospital for the Insane.
TOL announced their in house rates this AM.
I would buy if I was looking.
has anyone noticed that CNBC has not mentioned Bernie Madoff since last week?
Sometimes its hard to tell on these boards whether someone is just having a bad day, or if they really are a full time irredeemable ass face.
It’s only the written word after all, right?
One “tell” that I’ve found near 99.9% accurate, however, is if the douchebag spells “America” with a “k.”
That probability number goes to “six sigma,” btw, if the douchebag is actually an American.
_________
Adding more ITB (homies etf) for a trade.
This is what the boys are buying at the Bellview Hospital for the Insane.
Interestingly enough, it’s also what Chivas is buying right now.
________
Yes, Chivas whispered this to me just before they gave him his daily meds.
Microsoft has reached their high water mark (2 years ago), they are on the top of the peak and I see them only going down hill from here for a long time to come………the pipeline has been shot full of holes and is leaking all over for them…… I put a 12.00 handle on the stock.
ha, hows’bout that HK?!
my comment about JPM was sarcastic one, i am not considering JPM for a long
3.99% 30 year mortgage should move some inventory.
Where are you seeing those rates?
_____________
Glad I bought DUG near close yesterday 🙂 I think I’ll keep it for a couple days more.
Fly has flappy wings. And is good.
Pull up the news on TOL. 720 or better credit score and 20% down. Max. mortgage amount $417K. Private lender backing TOL.
just signed a 30 yr note for 3.875%
jake, it was on CNBC earlier today, go online and watch squawk on the street at around the 9:00 9:30 time frame, either KB homes or Toll bros announced they were giving an in house rate of 3.99 and financing their own homes to get rid of inventory…..it was not a bank offering the rate from what I gathered.
Sniper-
What did you pay 2 points for that rate?
3.99%
WTF?
I need a new house.
Jake – Nice catch on the “k” in douchebag. BTW how is Chivas?
zero points
Fly- Let me know if you move. I will buy the house next door so we can remain pals.
Fly, there might be a penthouse apartment up for sale soon by auction, in the upper east side, might better get on the bidders list……
what’s for lunch today…..
Sniper:
Stop lying, asshole.
In other news, John Thain is balling.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-01-22/john-thains-87000-rug/
AB – ShamWOW on that TLT chart. That’s one ugly mofo. Makes me feel good about my little position in TBT. So where does the $$’s go when they move (stampede) out of trasheries?
Fly,
I’d rather fuck a bag of flour then get put on a rack and get fucked by a 2×4 like you. I’m rolling in cash today being a contrarian to your picks. Keep up the good work and I’ll see you in the bread line with Cramer.
Put a fork in this market already. New lows by the close. Financials dropping off a cliff once again. FAZ to $150 +
NG looks like it could explode if gold keeps stays up.
NG 1.80 x 1.81
Paxson:
Your mother has a penis.
Gold is dead money.
Buy SRS and go home.
Another homie, PHM not looking too bad on the tape.
John Thain Agrees to Resign From Bank of America (story developing)
Ok, I can see this Thain asshole blowing company money and over-paying another au courrant fag-to-the stars.
But signing off on a “credenza”?
That is just full-on gayness and demands his immediate removal to an S&M dungeon off Fire Island.
Why, were you sucking on it last night?
Charlie Gasparino apparently was not breast fed…….
NG to jump 15% here!
I would love to see a top bank executive on trial for misappropriation of funds. I could see that when they are asked what the reason for spending an egregious amount of tax dollars on frivolity was, they would lean forward, get close to the microphone enough so that it would pop and crackle when they spoke, and respond with, “I don’t know Mark, I’ll take the physical challenge.”
I can see a new use for Guantanamo . Arrest assholes like Thain and send them there. Who are the bigger terrorists ? Those AlQaeda guys at Gitmo or these financial terrorists like Thain and co. who have destroyed America with their stupidity.
Watch and learn Fly. You said yourself anyone can have a good trade here and there.
NG to $2
Our new strategy is to copy the format of the Jerry Springer show…
24 hours of shouting.
Featuring Gasparino with the clinging cotton mouth spit on the lower lip.
I’m not backing away from my fucktarded call for BIG rally tomorrow
if we sell off into the bell, take a flier on a low risk long EOD entry
JUICE – we could drop 500 today , 500 tomorrow and 2500 on Monday. Dow 5000 here we come.
ALSO riding LOPE to 52 wk high today I’ll bet
who bought FAS today?
Love your gitmo idea CAP. Al fantasy.
Warning: Juice has a track record of calling big rallies correctly. Naturally, the law of averages says he will be wrong, from time to time. But, much to my chagrin, he has called a few.
I did not sell my fas. Getting hit with idiot potatoes.
I got 14000 FAS at 8…..we’ll see if it pays off. Hopefully the potatoes are mashed Fly.
Fly – You should try those potatoes mashed with a bit of gravy.
John Thain should have his legs chopped off…….with a Herring…..sir brave robin….
Ken Lewis is the fool for buying MER for $29!!
Fuck YEAH!!
… and don’t forget a bunch of Countrywide at $20.00.
Lewis need to go also.
CAP – we could go down 1500 by monday but I doubt it …. the news is just horrid today … we should make a lower low or they’ll say its baked in & off we go … this market is manic depressive
that said, be careful, both ways
added to my AFAM @ 37.15
AFAM has to be owned down here!
Where is the violent Bear market rally? Where is the bounce after a 1000 point 10% move down? Where is the Donmeister to tell us about FAS?
Henry NOTHING has to be owned right now.
Just get your cocaine fix riding 3x ETF’s everyday
🙂
.
I said yesterday to treat today like inauguration day due to employment numbers being seasonally adjusted last week.
I say now that this ultra low volume grind is a severe negative contrary to common thought. Making matters worse for the bulls the intra day put call is low and trending down probably due to the mistake about the low volume. The vix is a complete waste of time.
Know that I’m talking my book, but I would not be writing this if I did not believe this.
I bought small potato FAS. 1000 @ 8.61
Also holding 1500 BGU @ 27.64
That’s it for me. 25% long, 75% cash in my monkey business account.
here we go!
Professor, I think you are making a good point about the volume.
FAS gettting a case of “Obama Leg.”
Legging in.
Adding with UUP under 25.90 in a big way.
__________
Just bought some FAZ – that should stop the downside – if I go down today – it will be as a short.
MS,GS ready to rumble.
I just bought 14.3 million shares of DUG just now out of my Roth.
Covered some More of my GS shorts A 66.50. still holding on to a good bit as I think it goes to 40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_81U4ngh4tc
FAS is a buy right here just under 8.40
bloomberg says XOM market crap more than 24 largest banks combined!
theres got to be a trade in there somewhere …
long FAS/short XOM ?
Bit of a surge coming. The Juice rally lifting off?
I love these 3x ETFs. Better than KISS at Madison Square Garden circa ’77.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhM4sI16y1k
Hi Yogi have some TBT in the 38’s I trade the TBT off the TLT chart…105-107 is first stop small bounce then 99 ish is the next leg down.
Where does the money go…….
take a look at PFF this chart is close to setting up…while the XLF broke to a new low this puppy retraced about 2/3 s of the move…..yield is a smartish 9.50+
My stop triggered this morning on FAS, back in with a reduced position size at 8.34
Time to reload some FAZ here. Buy 1000 shares every $1 drop. By the time this week is over, I will be accused of rape. ( raping the bulls that is) .
how high will FAS go ….. any hunches out there??
Much cheaper for TOLL BROS to pay 3pts to buy down the rate than reduce listing price.
Especially if they marked the price up 3%.
What bulls? There are no bulls here – just some suckers like me waiting on the elusive bounce that seems to be a myth.
A safe play would be jumping out of FAS in the SPX 835-839 range for the short term.
Also, CAP you sound like Dumbdog.
CAP will be orally raping his own cock at the end of the week.
Check your logic, Juice.
XOM may still be a short…but to argue it is a short because it has a high market cap relative to the banks is not a good idea. The banks have clearly shit the shower…oil on the other hand is not going away anytime soon. True, demand has suffered and supplies have built up some…but be careful here…the easy short trade in oil has been made. Any further gains will be gotten by the quick and nimble.
XOM is undeniably considered a safe haven of sorts…tons of cash, etc. Downside is limited here.
Jester…it is not considered rape if CAP willingly inserts his own dick into his own mouth.
[email protected] like a dung nugget.
This just came across my desk…
ALERT
RGE Monitor
January 22, 2009
RGE Monitor Estimates $3.6 Trillion Loan and Securities Losses in the U.S.
Nouriel Roubini and Elisa Parisi-Capone of RGE Monitor release new estimates for expected loan losses and writedowns on U.S. originated securitizations:
• Loan losses on a total of $12.37 trillion unsecuritized loans are expected to reach $1.6 trillion. Of these, U.S. banks and brokers are expected to incur $1.1 trillion.
• Mark-to-market writedowns based on derivatives prices and cash bond indices on a further $10.84 trillion in securities reached about $2 trillion ($1.92 trillion.) About 40% of these securities (and losses) are held abroad according to flow-of-funds data. U.S. banks and broker dealers are assumed to incur a share of 30-35%, or $600-700 billion in securities writedowns.
• Total loan losses and securities writedowns on U.S. originated assets are expected to reach about $3.6 trillion. The U.S. banking sector is exposed to half of this figure, or $1.8 trillion (i.e. $1.1 trillion loan losses + $700bn writedowns.)
• FDIC-insured banks’ capitalization is $1.3 trillion as of Q3 2008; investment banks had $110bn in equity capital as of Q3 2008. Past recapitalization via TARP 1 funds of $230bn and private capital of $200bn still leaves the U.S. banking system borderline insolvent if our loss estimates materialize.
• In order to restore safe lending, additional private and/or public capital in the order of $1 – 1.4 trillion is needed. This magnitude calls for a comprehensive solution along the lines of a ‘bad bank’ as proposed by policy makers or an outright restructuring through a new RTC.
YOU GUYS ARE ALL ASSHOLES!!!
COME ON!!! If you are a CEO OF A FIRM you have to have luxurious goods, or else people think you are a cheap fuck!
$87,000 for a fucking rug? I am suprised he didnt pay for a fucking carpet made out of unicorn hair. Give the guy a break, its just pennies and definitely a political move.
Just take a LOOK AT THE FLY’s OFFICE..
oh shit, yes I did lie about my new mortgage. zero points, 4.875%, not 3.875%, me fuck up.
I miss the midday “Special Announcements” on this site. Any way we could get a comment on the market from Tim Geithner, Tax Preparer, H&R Block?
much more believable
Maybe Fly should move into Thains lavish office, it’s now available…….
Will somebody explain to me what a commode on legs is?
I am assuming it isn’t even close to the troughs I had to pee in at the old Muni Stadium in Cleveland.
my hair = all messed up, from having head up ass, sorry. Coulda paid the 2 pts and gotten 4.5%
afternoon coffee and crumpets anyone?
A commode on legs?? Ask the Fly. He’s got one, I’m sure. He’d never leave his Quotron.
By the way, anybody know why GS went up 4 bucks during the noon hour???
Ladies and Gentleman. Its about that time of the day. Place your bets. Its do or die time. Picked up 3k shares of FAZ under $66. Close over $70 my bet. $150+ next week.
GE BAC C …..How many dow points would be lost if these 3 went to zero……
Shemp:
What if his cock says “no”?
Pete – if oil goes up, XOM may rise, but in some greasy way, banks will get reliquified and would easily outperform XOM on the upside.
If XOM goes up 25%, FAS would double easy.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/A1.%20T.woo/paul%20gold.jpg
a technical bit on gold’s strength
Still buying FAZ. Will sell for loss if we break todays highs . I still think we reverse near close.
I like FAS
Rocket fuel