How’s that funnel?
“The Fly” wins again.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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The Fly always wins.
Death to BOOM.
You were right fly. I didn’t realize what a bad motherfucker you are. I wasn’t brave enough to ride out the fuckery in SRS, etc. Took the loss. Now I know. Thanks for showing me the way.
Ah shit…everyone turning bearish…time to seek some bouncing longs…
Fly
When you were bullish a while back I doubted your powers and your time machine. Not any more. As I have some nice gains on your short calls of XOM and KIM and long SRS. I continue to hold all the positions until I see some kind of trend reversal
I know charts are for asshats but, if one pulls up charts of the S&P and Dow, if the market is able to bounce either today or tomorrow, it sure as hell looks like we made an inverse head and shoulder formation. Left shoulder made back in early October, the head in late November and now the right shoulder.
It is clear to me now, C is dead, BAC on life support, market going lower
prostrations.
Jim “Baggins” Goldman totally blew the Steve Jobs reporting and is a schmoe……. anyone who has a brain bigger than an early english pea should never believe anything that comes out of his blow-hole again……..
I officially rescind my vote for ASSHAT OF THE MONTH from George W. Bush to Jim “baggins” Goldman……..
Can’t buy here, no matter how tempting it is. The BAC situation is dire. It can crash the market if not handled properly.
Also, the morons who bought LEH, BCS is in trouble too.
worse still, the highs for the year are likely in
you think govt. _might_ handle it properly
I am glad I am with Chase Bank.
How can it crash the market, if not handled well? Explain fly.
Lady – Chase is JPM. They have a load of SHIT on their balance sheet. Bigger and uglier shit than all the banks combined. T-Rex sized SHIT.
j – are you mental? there are about a zillion businesses out there who depend on BAC. other banks, retailers, etc.
Secret Bond Bullies out in force
🙂
CAP:
JPM Chase reports $702 million profit for its 4th quarter topping forecasts for a quarter expected to be among the toughest in its history.
Maybe so we will see if they can manage to survive.
Call me nuts (everyone else does) but what about BAC for a trade right NOW going into their earnings next Tuesday. The poop is out so now they climb? Any takers….I will dabble…
Bank of America gets another $10B from feds Bizjournals.com
anyone know if that’s right?
They have straight lines to the Fed, Puny. The Fed window is open to Scores even.
El Zilcho Says:
worse still, the highs for the year are likely in
**********************************************
With your brain you will soon be worth Zilcho.
The LOWS for the YEAR will be in this month.
The low for this entire bear market was on Nov. 20, at the Generational Stock Market Bottom.
7550 Dow, 750 on the S&P. GENERATIONAL LOWS.
The entire market is turning to the upside, if it holds past 2:00pm then this could set up for the bullshit obamarama rally which I did not think would start untill monday but may in fact start later today going into tomorrow….if this reversal to the upside holds……
Asshat nomination: Ken Lewis.
That nimrod bought Countrywide without first running it through FDIC receivership first.
Next, he overpaid for MER, paying a fucking premium for a dead bank. He diluted BAC shareholders for that piece of shit paying the equivalent of 50% too much.
Finally, BAC’s balance sheet is grossly exposed to consumer loans at a time when consumer balance sheets are as leveraged as ever AND unemployment is at decades high and still rising so they’re looking at credit losses accelerating for several more quarters.
Asshat Lewis spent his entire career being a serial acquirer. He finally bit off more than he can chew. I think the help BAC will need from the government will make Citi’s help look like a retarded, redheaded stepchild’s allowance.
Fly, too bad you’re a WEAK BEAR. You covered way early. I’m not impressed at all. Personally, I now seriously question your abilities.
JPMorgan Chase narrowly avoided a loss in the fourth quarter, indicating that it is weathering the financial crisis better than some of the other big banks.
But the meager profit was driven by its acquisition of Washington Mutual Inc., and the bank added $4.1 billion to loan loss reserves — proving that it is not immune to the deepening global recession.
Chief Executive Jamie Dimon called the quarter “very disappointing.” Results were hurt by $2.9 billion in markdowns in JPMorgan’s investment bank, and losses in various types of loans — from mortgages to home equity loans to credit cards to commercial real estate loans.
“If the economic environment deteriorates further, which is a distinct possibility, it is reasonable to expect additional negative impact on our market-related businesses, continued higher loan losses and increases to our credit reserves,” Dimon said in a statement.
ya gotta love ddawgs tude !
CHECK OUT this new Neil Young music video. FORK IN THE ROAD “There’s a bailout comin’ but it’s not for you. It’s for all those creeps hiding what they do”. AWESOME! I love Neil Young’s songs and his social commentary. Love what he thinks of an AAPL ipod. Once the music industry starts goin’ after this crap a lot of clueless young people start to get the picture. The REVOLUTION is starting.
http://www.neilyoung.com/forkintheroad/forkintheroadvideo.html
Dog you can never go wrong taking a profit
Fuck it
bought some C here.
Maybe i’m a dickwad. The Government ring fenced $300 billion of C’s assets at the last negotiations when the got the additional 20 billion.
If C loses 300 billion the shareholders take 30 bill loss.
That isn’t a bad deal and certainly better the BAC . So from my perspective C is actually a far better risk than BAC.
That’s it. If they go down because of something I missed my stop is at zero.
Moe, I bought back the Aussie below the figure here.
Nice start to the new year Sir Fly
The dog has delusions of grandeur–one of the first signs of mental retardation.
i”m also thinking of doubling up in a sense. Buying C and selling BAC. The only thing that stops me is the BAC gets the same deal from the government ring fencing the bad assets in the balance sheet.
Lady G
Sure you can go wrong taking your profit. You have to be a pig with profits as some pay for the losses.
j, I thought you bought C yesterday? BTW, C is going to NEW LOWS. Are you $ cost averaging DOWN?
Todd Harrison
10:40:05 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
THEY’RE FUELING THEIR BIRDS!
* Chatter abounds that a major U.S. bank will be nationalized this weekend and it doesn’t take Inspector Gadget to see that Bank America (BAC) (-25%) and Citigroup (C) (-22%) are in the crosshairs of that conversation.
* I continue to eye Research in Motion (RIMM) as it holds $45 into tomorrow’s expiration. This is one of those situations where IF the tape turns, this stocks should jack higher. Of course, the operable word in that statement is “if.”
* Who has final say on what animals are eligible for animal crackers?
* Being the contrarian I am, my instinct is to fade the tape. Still, in the immortal words of Captain Ramsey, “We have rules that are not open to interpretation, personal intuition, gut feelings, hairs on the back of your neck, little devils or angels sitting on your shoulder.” As such, I’ll continue to read my leaves, which include 8:1 negative breadth, fresh 14-year lows in the financials and some fear in the high beta complex.
* General Electric (GE). Bar Mitzvah. Insane.
* Given the ruminations that made the rounds regarding Steve Jobs’ health, I’m curious if “sell the rumor, buy the news” will come into play for Apple (AAPL). I’m currently not involved in the stock–and see the importance of the $80 level–but it’s worthy of watching as we together find our way.
* As always, I hope this finds you well.
fucking conspiracy theory: you know, we were all happy la-la land bullish the market will get saved obama rally, UP UNTIL obama said it was OK for bush to ask for the rest of the TARP money.
once the banks heard that the money will be deliberated by congress, it’s the end of the fucking world now.
World GDP in ’06 was $47 trillion
Total Global investments was $109 trillion
Total Nominal Exposure to derivatives was $473 trillion…
If only 5% of this is bad goods then your talking $23.5 trillion in losses….
So take a 40% exposure for the U.S. and were looking at $9.4 trillion in losses.
Take a 50% exposure for the large banks and you have $4.7 trillion in losses.
Does anyone know how much was written off world wide ?
NOT ENOUGH !!! So expect more downside because this problem is at best half way done my friends….
This is the mother of all ENRON style accounting debacles on a world wide basis…
Peak to trough we have only lost 35%….
Do not even get me started on the consumer recession and credit card losses….
see how $tick points out tradable bottoms.
http://wontbefooledagain-stuart.blogspot.com/2009/01/see-how-tick-points-out-st-bottoms.html
No don’t like averaging down, Dog. never will. I got taken out of that pos with a stop.
DEVILDOG
Go fuck your jar of Texas BBQ sauce you fucking redneck.
Just being born yesterday, I have a question: How the hell is the USD worth the fucking paper it was printed on? Americans shouldn’t bother with the ‘little three’ anymore, they seem to excell at making FIATS!
Artist, don’t wait to get long Monday for an Obama play. Matterafact, you would want to close all long Obama plays on Monday close
DD you’re a gun guy (understatement), gimme a rec on an AR15…
# Generational BOND Top Says:
El Zilcho Says:
worse still, the highs for the year are likely in
**********************************************
With your brain you will soon be worth Zilcho.
The LOWS for the YEAR will be in this month.
The low for this entire bear market
was on Nov. 20, at the Generational Stock Market
Bottom.
7550 Dow, 750 on the S&P. GENERATIONAL LOWS.
January 15th, 2009 at 11:07 am
WOW! Is this GENERATIONAL BOTTOM or GENERATIONAL OIL BOTTOM in new disguise? Whoever, it is they won’t be here for long and will soon be living on the street eating my garbage.
In other news, my SOLR play has been kicking ass this week.
The Fly telling off the Ddog … lol 🙂
Kudlow is a #$%^&g douche lecturing Steve Jobs on his deathbed. Kudlow behind the curve, as ever.
AR15 is excellent. I have 2.
correction…peak to trough 42%…still not enough….
With home builders down….HD doing nice…odd no?
Y but whos, Colt, RRA, DTMS , LMT, Bushmaster? Price points are all over the place..
The headlines on bloomberg are almost comical at this point…
Dog
Shut the fuck up.
Devil Dog :
http://www.lwrci.com/Products/PSD/tabid/87/Default.aspx
my latest toy…..
Fly, you got out of SRS at $71. That is just retarded. I think you need to get some sleep or are you still drunk from too much Bordeaux last night? Just fucking stupid.
GW is that legal at that length?
Can’t go wrong with a Bushmaster. Rock River makes a nice one too.
I’m with you DD,
I will not cover until we test and break though the lows. The trend is down
This January has started worse than last January.
there still may be a relief rally for a few days, then u can buy more SRS.
GW-
Like the new toy. I have a friend that is an FBI agent. I went to the range with him and got to shoot his MP5. It shoots 10mm also has a 2 round burst. Very nice piece
I myself have a 40 cal Sig along with my new toy a benelli M4 12ga tactical. Can’t miss with 00 Buckshot
GW, very nice! I may try one out.
not as retarded as holding SRS for long-term. those daily rebalancing fucks you hard.
Now I want a LWRC SABR.
is that an automatic?
They banned nearly all freaking guns here when a monster took out 33 people in Tasmania. We hold the world record for a flip out story.
HELLO – Does anyone see the inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the S&P and Dow ? Woodshedder ? Anyone ?
RE: BAC and Ken ‘dimwit’ Lewis. Looks like Ken started gobbling up CFC and MER so that BAC could become too big to fail. I mean how can BAC survive ? Look how many CA, FL, NV and AZ mortgages they have on their books. They were giving away HELOCs like crazy. I got a 100k heloc through them with no income or asset verification and NO appraisal ! Nothing ! It was just ‘Here you go Mr. Cap. Just sign on this dotted line.’
Mustard seeds. The Fly, I send mustard seeds to your portfolio.
# GW Says:
World GDP in ‘06 was $47 trillion
Total Global investments was $109 trillion
Total Nominal Exposure to derivatives was $473 trillion…
If only 5% of this is bad goods then your talking $23.5 trillion in losses….
So take a 40% exposure for the U.S. and were looking at $9.4 trillion in losses.
Take a 50% exposure for the large banks and you have $4.7 trillion in losses.
Does anyone know how much was written off world wide ?
NOT ENOUGH !!! So expect more downside because this problem is at best half way done my friends….
This is the mother of all ENRON style accounting debacles on a world wide basis…
Peak to trough we have only lost 35%….
Do not even get me started on the consumer recession and credit card losses….
January 15th, 2009 at 11:20 am
EXCELLENT post! However, your estimates are too conservative as to the real losses. Will be interesting to see if our corrupt government gets rid of mark-to market accounting to try to prolong the cover up and prolong the DEPRESSION. Let’s see they have already trashed the Constitution by allowing the fed to spend future public funds(taxes) without approval of Congress and the Patriot Act to help fight the upcoming domestic revolt. Keep buying weapons.
I see a lot of flakes on that head and shoulders pattern. Better try Selsun Blue.
That’s Exactly what Lewis did after he started eating the shit from Countrywide. He picked up Merrill for that exact reason, to become to big to fail. That seems to be the only reason they did the deal. Either that or his ego is so big and he is so blinded by it that he refused to see the big pile of shit that Merrill had in their pants
I was BORN a Bushmaster.
Dog
Stop barking, as you don’t fucking understand that shit.
That’s gross exposure , doofus.
Net would be tiny. Banks would buy and sells amongst themselves and they trade with clients on a margin basis.
FLY:
I recommended Ken Lewis as asshat of the month. If that guy is not a: a shill for the government to take MER private, or b: the dumbest motherfucking “banker” I have ever seen, then shoot me now. He could have bought MER for squat. Everyone makes mistakes, but that has got to be the Mt. Rushmore of banking fuckery…
CAP, keep dreaming. Exactly what the bullshitters what you to think. BTW, prepare for your shoulder to be broken by the DEVILDOG. If fact I’m going to rip your arm off and beat you to death with it. Death to cows and sheeples.
Anybody own an AA12? Those look cool. Great for zombie uprisings…
http://www.undeadreport.com/2007/12/aa-12-shotgun-anti-zombie-weapon-of-choice/
j, it’s NET dumbass.
With many contractors and other self-employed individuals having little or no work, how will they be able to pay their taxes come April. They won’t! Revenues will sink, people will owe the IRS. The IRS will place tax liens of what? Their homes are worth less, no income to speak of, This picture does not look good. And with the entitlement programs fucking it up even more this may be a snowball into the Greatest Depression. DD is right buy weapons
RE: DERIVATIVE exposure $473 trillion and potential 5% loss $23.5 trillion.
Above scenario will not happen. Alot of derivatives are being counted multiple times. E.g. GS buys CDS on LEH from AIG for $1 billion. AIG guarantees but sells the same $1 billion risk to JPM. In turn JPM sells to BAC who sells to MER who sells to MS who sells to GE who sells to …..
and it goes on and on despite the fact its the same damn CDS guaranteeing the debt of the same damn company. So you have all these billions and trillions adding up. The key is knowing what the net exposure is after crossing out all these double, triple, quadruple counted CDS contracts.
As for credit card losses, total credit card debt is $2.5 trillion vs $15 trillion for commercial and residential mortgages. Residential is around $12 trillion , commercial is 3 trillion. People are overestimating the fallout from credit card losses. Plus people need their credit cards more than their homes.
J – re: derivatives gross v net exposure. EXACTLY !
DevilDog arent you suppose to be ‘ out and about’ Dallas today? Getting a hair cut and finding SOME GOOD in the world?
Waiting for your report to us…that there is some small sunshine in your otherwise dark reality…….
waiting……..
T MOE,
Does that Benelli have recoil suppression built in ? My 590 Mossberg has been killing my shoulder….I’m trying to get a spec ops folder for it……
did you see the new shotgun for the Army ?
600 rounds per minute with grenade shells and no recoil…sick stuff…
Devil Dog….much more effective than those bushmasters…and compact too….you’ll love it….
Attention Dip Buyers!
If you’re gonna be a “dip buyer”, don’t be an “IDIOT dip buyer”. Do not buy the individual banks here, especially “C” and “BAC”. If you feel like you must buy banks, buy FAS, which has a (very) high beta and spreads your risk.
My theory is the government decided to deal with Citi by injecting $45 billion in capital then forcing them to sell off crown jewels like Smith Barney and ring fence $300 billion of toxic waste. So they have a plan for Citi.
That’s why I think BAC is the bank that will be nationalized. It’s probably a minority view, but I think it makes sense.
Ken Lewis should be fired first, then have his nuts cuts off with a rusty butter knife.
I am still waiting for Devildog to explain his claim that he went to college with the founder of Dupont.
Dep-
add a 12ga
http://cdn.benelliusa.com/assets/silos/large_jpg_white/silo_4000_m4_12_syn_pistol_defense.jpg
you can’t miss
Now for a request. This one goes out to LG from one DD.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPyq4iqt6Go
Dog:
all duration risk that sits on a bank’s books is looked at in net terms…. in regards to the risk they hold with another bank.
It’s called novation and banks look at net risk with others because in the event of a failure they’re only at risk for the net. In other words the liquidator can’t cherry pick.
The derivatives exposure is fine in of itself. The risk isn’t there. Don’t worry about derivatives books, worry about the loans they have on their books.
——–
Here’s what I’m thinking about C. They come in with their loss tomorrow and in addition present a structure that will hold all the bad assets. Surprise, surprise that amount will be exactly equal to the amount that was agreed to be ring fenced by the Feds.
They say they’re sticking that in a another shell that’s fully funded and highlight the fact that if it goes they only have the risk for the first $30 billion.
So they’re “ok”.
The one to really worry about is BAC if they don’t get the deal.
Out of the two BAC will fail first before C if the uncle Sam doesn’t cut them a C like deal.
Keyzer… you beat me to it.
I can’t understand why no one is looking at the 300 billion protection racket.
Smart Money still short. DIA support is at 75.45. This shit still looks bad. Should be a big fucking bounce when it happens. Good move FLY. Now you have cash for the bounce.
GW yes they call it ComforTech supposedly 48% less recoil than other guns
Keyser Soze:
“That’s why I think BAC is the bank that will be nationalized. It’s probably a minority view, but I think it makes sense.”
I tend to agree with you, but isn’t there something scurrilous(?) about nationalizing Merrill??
Bravo
Keyzer – Only problem with the Citi plan is that if they can only get $2.5 billion for a controlling stake in Smith Barney, they don’t have enough crap to sell to make any noticable dent in their apparent capital needs.
That’s true, puny. But why are they in such a hurry anyway if they have the 300 billion of protection. They do what i said and sit it out if they have to.
Bought BAC at $7.98
“better than 150 mph”
“better than sex”
or something like that, yes Donny?
devil dog, swatting flies with his filthy tail
DMG-
Good luck!
BTW, the better than 150mph & sex days are over … we don’t get 500+ point swings anymore. Trading now is like chopping down trees with an axe, whereas in the past, it was like using a Daisy Cutter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiP7-HBHwPc
Cap:
That is the total nominal value of derivatives.
The notional value is much less of course, but you also must take into account LEVERAGE.
So while a total of 23.5 trillion may not be a total loss there is a significant amount of that portion to be covered against asset bases.
When the average bank is levered 30:1 then the notional value comes into play…
On a 1:1 leverage basis I agree there would be not much to worry about.
Considering the banks have an additional 10-15 derivatives category aside from the mortgage products you can begin to see why these banks are completely bankrupt.
We in society can not see this since many products are off balance sheet.
So I would not discount any of those numbers nor would I venture to say that products are double or triple counted.
In 2001 JPM had upwards of 16 derivatives products if just 2 of those products went against them it was enough to make them insolvent.
That was discovered when I was researching gold. I then stumbled onto the enchilada….
The entire market is turning to the upside, if it holds past 2:00pm then this could set up for the bullshit obamarama rally which I did not think would start untill monday (sic) but may in fact start later today going into tomorrow.
You tellin’ me a good liberal like you doan know Monday is Martin’s Day?
Proceed to the Re-education camp for internment.
________