The problem with buying commodity stocks is that the fundamentals are going to be horrendous, going forward. They are the biggest beneficiaries of “bounce trading,” due to people being emotionally attached to them; but like dot coms in 2000, they are dead.
If the market is to begin a new bull market, it must do so with new leadership.
Construction firms are ripping again, much to my delight, long KBR. My watch list includes: PCR, SGR, FLR, FWLT, ABB and MDR.
Today’s tape is the exact reason why I am not willing to commit 100% to being a bear. Although I know stocks are expensive and will trade lower, that does not mean people are going to forget about Santa Claus and give up all hope. Instead, investors are taking the optimistic viewpoint, betting that the economy picks up within 6 months. After all, how can it get any worse?
Well, the answer to that question, and more, is easy. Wait until states and municipalities run out of money, and start to grovel for Federal dollars.
Hey, at least treasuries are down today, which means people are not tossing money into the Federal barn fire.
As crazy as it sounds, long ERX, TNA, FAZ, SRS and JPM is working today, which happens to be a portion of my holdings. Essentially, the banks are not participating in today’s melt up, which means we will trade lower sometime later today—unless of course commodity stocks can hold onto these big intraday gains.
As for FXP:
That etf is so criminal, the makers of it should be tossed into an alligator infested swamp.
Top picks: KBR, FAZ, SRS TNA
UPDATE: I sold out of my entire JPM position, above $34. And, I bought some more SRS, sub $84.
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“Barn fire?”
Or “bon fire?”
Or “bran fire” maybe for the old folks?
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And what is with this “hamsterwheel?”
What happened to the fuggin funnel?
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Perini makes excellent lager, btw, thanks for the rec.
WTTW — get out of FAZ and into FAS.
FASt.
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It’s all about record level Govt. input going into infrastructure next year.
The O factor, if Oprah can move stocks, perhaps Obama can move markets.
Remember this prediction:
OXY to $76.00
‘Cause I’ll forget.
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Stock Market’s Up!
Stock Market’s Down!
Stock Market’s Up!
Stock Market’s Down!
I just donated all my investing books to the local library. Those rules just don’t apply anymore. Especially to this crazy market where it feels more and more like Vegas every day even though I try and tell myself there’s rules and charts don’t lie.
Thanks for the killer posts Fly. Awesome stuff as usual.
If you can’t find the hamster, it’s because Cramer’s been “hiding” him.
I warned you, FXP is to be shorted and sold, its going to go to zero no way around it.
Top pick: DXO
fxp = anal rape
Anybody wanna buy some hot dogs?
My wife wants me to raise some cash.
My MIL bought me a case of Peroni for Xmas a few years back. I remember liking it quite a bit. I’ll have to get some more now that I’m reminded.
Talk about completely fucking criminal… oil is up 5.5% but DXO, that whore of a german cock-sucker is tanking. WTF!?!
Const. companies? Fly be playin’ the ‘bama bounce.
i will sell kbr soon.
When is Jeremy going to integrate the new reply fields?
Jeremy spoke in
Spoke in…
Jeremy spoke in…
Schooooooooolll to-daaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy!
__
One of my neighbors, Suzie, owns an escort service. She has over 250 good looking ladies working for her service. Suzie makes coin. She’s also an avid reader of the Fly’s Blog. Suzie just knocked on my door. The poor girl was in tears. She followed the fly’s advice and went boobs in (all-in via margin) on TBT in the low 60s. Suzie’s almost broke now. She has to lay off all her ladies.
Moral of this story – when a fly tells you to buy TBT, don’t go boobs in or you might lose your ass and your ladies.
Fuck that, FXP is going to the moon. You heard it here first. I’m loading up on the June 55 options. It would behoove all you small minded people to follow my lead. Don’t bitch and moan if you don’t heed my advice. Meanwhile, I will be bathing in copious amount of coin while you neophytes drown in your margin calls. In short, I am better than you.
Talk about completely fucking criminal… oil is up 5.5% but DXO, that whore of a german cock-sucker is tanking. WTF!?!
I hereby re-name DXO “Dita Von Teese.”
Note, she had a gap to fill, ovah heah. It’s filled now, she should be happier.
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Hey, gappingandyapping,
Can you explain to me the price action in DXO this morning?
Eye No — it’s obvious that your neighbor should have stuck with TNA, her specialty.
Dave Barris — any relation to Chuck?
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Dita Von Teese, aka, DXO, aka, filthy fucking whore… bounce you lil’ bitch!
In regards to FXP, it makes no sense the way it trades.
China has to have at least an 8% growth rate. They have to create 25 million new jobs annually. If US consumers aren’t buying goods, as evidenced by massive factory closures in China, then why is FXP going down the drain? Is it direct cash infusion by the Chinese gov’t? Do they think they can prop up the Chinese market with gov’t money until the global economy recovers?
Boy Jake, I must admit, seeing you run around these message boards, without your brain, is sort of unsettling.
Lower prices in store for oil, despite my erx position.
Oil will defy all logic and overshoot to the downside.
Weak rally attempt, rug is about to be pulled from under these fuckers!
Dave, I don’t think it’s worth the price to go out to June, March should be good n plenty.
Long FXP
Chindia be fillin’ up they’s SPR, OPEC to cut, teh Dutch doin’ cantango on teh high seas. I wouldn’t be short oil much longer.
Boy Jake, I must admit, seeing you run around these message boards, without your brain, is sort of unsettling.
But Mistah Scrooge!??
Et’s Chrussmas!
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Has Meredith appeared on CNBC yet today?
Where the hell is Devildog?
-DT
CHK is just chopping balls.
I can’t for life of me understand why these morons keep calling this a bridge loan. How in the fuck are they going to pay back the loan when they are burning through cash each month, as I have said before, like a redhead whore burns through a pile of cocaine. This is a bailout they won’t pay it back and they will be asking for more. Just like AIG can’t pay it back and needs even more. Next comes BO’s NEw DEAL. Huge inflation in the future IMO. GLD may be worth a look
Fly, not doubting that lower prices are possible… would just like to see DXO, the so-called Powershares German Cock-sucker Crude move with the filthy fucking fluid.
Oil is bouncing and so should DXO
And now for today’s market forecast:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_je1oZbvpjo
“Bull Led to Slaughter” says:
Long FXP.
Can I ask you a serious question?
Do you own a Gimp suit, too?
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Here’s the video Karl:
http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=qjSD_vM2DA_6oQi2jAK_Lzhvin57rX3Z&[email protected]&key=vG755QTlMrrS4lslHSSCtW3xFNU%3D&reporting=part=
Jake, did you start the office Christmas par-tay a little early today? 🙂
“Has Meredith appeared on CNBC yet today?”
Lol. Good one, Centurion.
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You might be right 4fl3x, however, I like to have some time and if this fucker goes to where it should the delta value on the far month should explode. Either way, do not short FXP, it will do an inordinate amount of damage to your equity.
I think Whitney was on this morning before open. I missed it as I over slept. May be why the financials are not really taking part in the melt up this morning. WFC down. It is one she has been hammering lately
How’s that ERX treating you Fly? It’s not too late to rebuy the 50% you dumped yesterday.
Might be mistaken but I believe Meredith will be on FastMoney tonight.
Long FXI after recent breakout. Target $38-40. Evil twin sister to FXP.
PKX MT X ….are they dead?
Boca– Getting close to a close — very little restful sleep the last couple of weeks, ovah heah.
That and the market finally starting to make some sense (at least in the near term), makes for unkempt giddy spells.
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Thx 4f.
So people will continue to “enjoy” negative returns on treasuries vs. tip toeing back into stocks and/or commodities?
Sure Financials may be ignored, but I can see a broad-based 2000-3000 pt rally happening for the Dow as asset allocation models begin steering more money into securities.
again”TNA” “USO”
Why stop there?
We can double from here. Everything is in bull mode again. Boom times are back.
Pierpont
Not sure we will see a flow into equities from the models when investment grade corporates and some munis could give equity like returns. People and money managers will be more cautious after getting their teeth kicked in this year, IMO. So I think that they will allocate more to fixed income than equities
Moral of this story – when a fly tells you to buy TBT, don’t go boobs in or you might lose your ass and your ladies.
Sounds like the moral of the story is to use a stop loss.
TMOE:
Link to Meredith this am. She didn’t say anything new, still very bearish on big banks (out atleast 36 mos) – didn’t specifically say anything about WFC (like the last time she was on CNBC)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=957685796&play=1
FLY, regarding your exogenous events prior posts: Watching some talking heads discuss the mark to market proposal by Cox after the 1st, and the possibility of re-instating the uptick rule, these are considered exogenous events that could fuel a rally as well. Just saying that exogenous events can work both ways, no?
Jake, what do you think of CBL for an intra-week play?
Found this on the Yahoo message board regarding DXO, as I couldn’t figure out why it’s down while USO is up:
DXO is currently 100% in the June 09 contract for oil…
It is not trading with the spot price of oil at all…
Oil could be down 5% and DXO even….
Oil could be up 5% and DXO be down 10%…
We have bought a 200% long pos. on the June 09 contract…and have also bought the firms analyst speculating that this is the best contract on oil for the fund…
Ol’ Jack,
DXO is outperforming and is a huge buy here because of the misprice on the ETF. There was an MV article describing this.
Almost time to go long the VIX. People are becoming too complacent after watching CNBC.
Maybe if oil goes red DXO will rally? Makes sense, no?
We can double from here. Everything is in bull mode again. Boom times are back.
You will be visited by threeeeee spirits this night!
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Take a look at CBL, it’s getting ready to spike up again.
I find it most interesting & even curiouser that as the price of crude is UP, driving up earl stocks & hence the major indices, “they” have ordered the price of gazoline & heating earl to decline, to benefit debt ridden & broke consumers, driving up retail stocks.
ITs a WIN-WIN !!!
MERRY X-MAS!
Bull–
DXO is now breaking into people’s houses and playing “catch and release” with their elaborate hamster tunnels.
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Great video of Meredith’s comments, had to agree with her bearish comments on consumers and credit outlook for the next several years.
Gap –
Read the MV article this morning,after I had already bought DXO. Agree with RC, this is a buy and forget for me. Wish I had kept some M.
VIX down 8%
oh, oh.
I left my door unlocked, but DXO still broke my fucking window. Juggling my hamsters as I type.
Jake, what do you think of CBL for an intra-week play?
As you may know, I have CBL for my long term accounts, bot at various levels starting at $10.50 and down. I also have the preferreds at stupid levels ($5.50 – $6.50). Right now it’s mostly a dividend reaping play for me, but I do have some trading shares that I scooped when it really cratered and will likely get rid of when we hit the SPX 50 day (930 ish).
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I left my door unlocked, but DXO still broke my fucking window. Juggling my hamsters as I type.
A mix of bad habits from the heroine days are hard unlearned.
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jakegint..:
you made a serious point.
many of us are trading with gimp suits , we want to be “the fly”.. but we cant, and we are punished for it.
this week has been good to me, since i have traded acording to what i see and not acording to what i want.
after being FXP´d in the ass multiple times , all i can say is , that etf must go.
Double ETF’s are really bad news in an up market. Best to sell the calls on them when you can.
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fuck the lexus, bmw, and mercedes.
give me the cadillac, escalade, navigator, hummer, viper, and of course, most of all, the one and only CORVETTE.
i hope these guys survive, one way or another.
With all the bad news surrounding ERTS, I bought a little ATVI sub $10. My reasons should be obvious to anybody who plays video games.
And a little SRS as a hedge. I don’t trust this market.
I know it’s a highly impassioned subject matter but my opinion of GM going bankrupt is the 2009 equivalent of Smoot-Hawley to 1929 and the final nail in the coffin of the economy, guaranteeing a Depression.
The job loss ramifications will affect every city in America, large and small to varying degrees. It will reach further than Congress and CNBC can see.
Granpa, did you fight hard against Smoot and Hawley backi in “29?