iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,443 Blog Posts

The Flight to Quality Continues

The guy who plays the CIA boss, in Borne Ultimatum, is such a fucking tool. I mean, how stupid was he to believe Jason would go to Tudor City? Everyone knows there are no exit points in Tudor city.

Geez.

This morning, I was flipping stocks, as if I worked at The Pancake House. First I was bearish, then bullish, then bearish. Quite honestly, if i have to deal with this shit for much longer, I am going to fucking smash shit in my office. I’m gonna throw televisions out the window, old school style.

Big money is flooding back into treasuries. Be very careful with your long exposure here. The fact that people are still extremely risk adverse, as evidenced by the TLT, should stifle your exuberance, at least a bit.

For the love of currency and small babies, 99% of you fuckers were scared of the apocalypse, just two weeks ago.

Take a deep breath and put things into perspective. Is it enough to own stocks, based upon the fact that they do not go lower, over a 1 week time frame? If this bear market has taught you anything it is to not trust anything or anyone, sans “The Fly”; because he’s looking out for you.

The bullish points are price action and “baked in” Armageddon at the retailers. Any upside in holiday sales will really have an impact on the underlying share prices. However, as far as the fundamentals are concerned, I have a serious issue getting long oil stocks, with crude in the low $40’s. Nonetheless, I am long ERX for a trade. Although it’s worth noting, I sold some out for a quick .25 loss.

Bottom line: For once, I suggest being very careful here, both long or short.

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64 comments

  1. AI

    We are actually in a bull market now more than 20% of the bottom…..

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  2. The Fly

    Nice Al.

    We are. Good point. Please don’t remind CNBC that,else they will repeat it every 5 minutes.

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  3. Buckeye Bob

    C looks strong here considering it was going out of business 11 days ago… having a big problem with “everything baked in here”

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  4. scum bucket

    Leverage long AIG chickenshitz.

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  5. Big Mike

    Yo Fly,

    What kind of sandwich do you always eat for lunch?

    Me, on the other hand since I am a high roller and all, I go to steakhouses for lunch instead. My favorite is Giant Panda filet on garlic, while a side of turtle sea soup.

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  6. mrkcbill

    This is great!

    http://www.veoh.com/videos/v16849313Ndbj77Jw?rank=5&order=

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  7. Aris

    the fly eats internet leech sandwiches.

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  8. Jason

    Get some sleep Fly, you’re looking tired…

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  9. CAP

    Everyone is looking at the 10 yr as a barometer for the markets health. Hence it will cease to work as an indicator. Odd no ?

    Jason Says:

    Get some sleep Fly, you’re looking tired…

    LMAO

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  10. hmmmmmm

    CNBC is going to call out Meredith “Ursa Major” Whitney and she’s gonna drop her “analyst’s adam’s apple” on the bulls. There are no folding chairs at Oppenheimer at the moment…

    Developing…..

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  11. Dinosaur Trader

    Neutral is the new black.

    -DT

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  12. PopesEconomicAdvisor
    PopesEconomicAdvisor

    Get some sleep Fly, you’re looking tired…
    :

    my impression , too

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  13. Mr. Market's boner
    Mr. Market's boner

    Fellas, I’m ready to get up and do my thing.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z3o22oB538&feature=related

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  14. Da Bears

    Fly you seem very against oil can you give your reasoning. Charts $WTIC and USO look great. and $Wtic has horizontal and diagnoal support at 40. I think oil might be a great buy here but why do you always think its going lower?

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  15. ottnott

    Hey, MMB, if you can keep both AAPL and SRS moving up at the same time, I’ll do my thing.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVFj-_SDIHE&feature=related

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  16. The Fly

    oil sub $60 means bankruptcy for many.

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  17. Aris

    this action sucks.

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  18. Mr. Market's boner
    Mr. Market's boner

    You’re harshing me with too much pressure, dude.

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  19. Larry

    The better question is why Jason Bourne would tell him he was in his office. He could have gotten to the training center with no drama if he had kept his yapper shut. Thats the only part that annoys me, that was for dramatic effect, not his style. His style would have been to call him after and ask him to check his safe.

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  20. ottnott

    What players bet the company on >$60 oil?

    Prices at that level are a recent phenomenon. In the past, the industry has been very slow to alter investment plans in response to large price movements.

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  21. Steve The Neighbor
    Steve The Neighbor

    Fly is always throwing and smashing things. I will get him the gift of anger management classes for Christmas. It will be a new Fly in 2009.

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  22. ottnott

    SRS up 6.66.

    You are doing just fine MMB, if that’s your real name.

    “Please allow me to introduce myself…”

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  23. Shemp

    Mr Markets boner is turning a bit flaccid…I don’t think the blue pill is gonna help today…we are headed lower.

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  24. Market Fool

    Market pricing in improvement in economic conditions by summer or late summer.

    Should that be pushed off until late fall or 2010, homo-hammers will be in plentiful supply.

    Should that be pushed off until never, Devildog will be buying out Stevie Wynn and his bullshit casinos.

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  25. flyswatter

    which is why oil will be manipulasated higher…

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  26. Tony

    Can anyone trade these XXX etf’s? I get shaken out every fucking time!

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  27. DownTick

    Attention all coked out money managers. Your party, DryShips Inc., is waiting for you in the lobby, swinging from the chandelier. Naked. That is all.

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  28. charlie

    I was good at trading them till the market ripped on hearing about 500k jobs lost

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  29. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Tony – Wider stops? Smaller positions?

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  30. Mr. Market's boner
    Mr. Market's boner

    You are doing just fine MMB, if that’s your real name.

    You think I’d rename myself this?

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  31. Devildog's wife's Lawyer
    Devildog's wife's Lawyer

    The dog is toast.

    If he ends up making anything, it will be Mrs. Devildog’s coin.

    More than likely, he’ll end up covering at a loss.

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  32. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Tony – Shorter timeframe? longer timeframe?

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  33. Sir Douchebag

    That’s bullshit on oil.

    Even oilsands can produce for profits at $40/barrel. that’s why we are at $40.

    And it might even go lower. But $60 is not the fucking floor. $40 is. And they can probably get by on $35/barrel and still make dimes.

    But OPEC will eventually do something ridiculous so I’m holding USO — don’t expect a profit for years though.

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  34. Tony

    Why would I trade smaller positions? I would just trade the non-leveraged ones if I wanted to reduce risk exposure. That would be like jacking off wearing a glove and condom.

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  35. Karl Marx

    Sir Douchebag, you are indeed living up to your name.

    Ask any environ consultant, even the ones clingine to a 20 per bbl cut off, how much they expecto make this year in Alberta – almost every big oil sands project is on hold because they’re not economical below 85 per bbl, let alone 60. That will change as labor and imputs come down, but there will be little investment until oil goes back up.

    I wouldn’t put much faith in OPEC to get you there, though.

    I feel lucky to have gotten out of my DUG/ERY swing crap at break even. I hold BP (bought way lower) for the long haul and would like to get long Shell sub 40, but otherwise I’m staying out of Dodge, and especially Alberta, for awhile.

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  36. Ozark Hillbilly

    You’re absolutely right about the big money in the treasuries, as if you needed me to confirm that.

    We need a big natural disaster to really get things cooking now. How ’bout an earthquake or two?

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  37. so i herd you like mudkips
    so i herd you like mudkips

    whee, real estate ( IYR ) is touching support right now, a break is a pretty fun slide down.

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  38. The Zombie

    The QQQQ is one tough fucker today.

    The Fly is God.

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  39. Dale Andersen

    How about if oil goes below 40? 40 was the high as I recall in the early 80’s.

    The key is the cost of producing oil in the Middle East. That is the absolute floor.

    http://tinyurl.com/John-Lennon1

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  40. The Fly

    Who’s having fun?

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  41. The Zombie

    (crickets)

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  42. so i herd you liek mudkips
    so i herd you liek mudkips

    ignore the production costs of tar sands or the mideast, this isn’t a supply issue. we’re talking demand destruction, baby! that’s what sets the price. we’re witnessing a simple econ101 shift lower in the demand curve. the supply curve isn’t changing much at all, price floors matter when looking at expansion of oil supplies (definitely not when OPEC is considering minor contractions).

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  43. Dinosaur Trader

    I’m hoping for REIT weakness into the close… then I’ll be having fun.

    -DT

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  44. jungleegirl

    just sit back and listen to the music of the gods while this homorifity continues:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvOkQiDui0c

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  45. T MOE

    I am having fun now that volume picked up a little. Now if the VIX would pick up steam then I would be happy like a pig in shit. It’s a little confusing that the VIX is lagging with the S&P down

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  46. Karl Marx

    More fun for me when SRS hits $300.

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  47. T MOE

    If you rememeber the beating last Monday. We traded in a range until the last hour and a half then the market went to shit. I hope the same happens today

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  48. Dr. Incognito

    That is almost guaranteed at this point DT. You notice the change in The Fly’s posts when we get to a trend change? Especially that Titanic Trading post he had awhile back.

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  49. Jakegint

    I’m back and I saw this on the previous page:

    This political news seems pretty bad, the nutcracker prosecutor from the Plame affair is taking the lead on this. He’s a right royal hard nosed prick who has serious political cover because he went after Bush’s cronies.

    Had to drive back from this meeting since it’s like Noah’s Flood out heah, and the El Rushbo claims that Fitzy pulled the trigger on this Blagdodocsmorgasboradavich deal IN ORDER to save Obama (and other related partys’) butt.

    In other words this fugger Roddy Blagosamicheswordouttahearovich is SO FUGGING OFF THE RAILS that he could’ve brought the whole Dem party down with him if he wasn’t given the “midnight garrote” as it were.

    “Stop him before he sells the Chicago River to Hillary’s Dad!”

    _________

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  50. Jakegint

    Thus, yes, I am buying stocks as “the Bone Smoking One” is saved, once again.

    __________

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  51. Danny

    Jungle…you’re dating yourself!!

    Just had to tell you, since everyone else does.

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  52. Tony

    Buying a little TNA here….I just like the symbol

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  53. so i herd you liek mudkips
    so i herd you liek mudkips

    i’m also watching how the USO vs. KOL divergence plays out in the coming days

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  54. ottnott

    Blago was a total tool.

    Amazing how often people like that rise to high positions in business and politics.

    Amazing also that anyone still listens to Rush.

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  55. yeah it's coming

    #
    #
    Today 11:40am
    California State Treasurer: State may have to halt $660M in monthly infrastructure loans as soon as next week- If loans are halted, could cost firms “billions” in revenues and eliminate 225K new jobs..

    the infrastructure collapse will eventually come, new policy et all

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  56. Jakegint

    Ottnot,

    Why not just attempt not to be a prick your entire life, eh?

    Just for a day to start? Small steps, etc? It’s not like you’ve a millenium to go.

    __________

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  57. Thunderpup

    Happy International Anticorruption Day!

    http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/un/international-anti-corruption-day

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  58. Gov. Blagojevich

    Listen Motherfuckers! I am NOT going down without a fight. The very first thing President Obama will do on inauguration day, is pardon my ass. That Motherfucker knows I got more shit on him, than carters got pills. If I go down, I take everyone with me!

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  59. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Tony – My point was if you took a smaller position, you could use a larger stop and have the same amount of risk (whatever 1%, 2%). I wasn’t trying to be any more complimicated than that. Back to work to round up some pikinic baskets.

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  60. TOLD YOU TO BUY

    BUY BUY BUY at 5-DMA

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  61. Jakegint

    Gov B — don’t forget, you still want your money for that Senate seat on top!.

    Lol. What’s up with the Eastern European Chicago Dem Politicians (I’m thinking the other Dem Rat, Rostenkowski now)? What happened to their long tradition of Mick dirtbags?

    Have they all gone Northside?

    ____________

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  62. Tony

    Out of TNA for a quick $2…That’s how you avoid getting shaken out!

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  63. Gov. Blagojevich

    Of Course I’m still gonna get my money. In fact, the bid is now 1.4m.

    Can you believe that judge just let me out with $4,500 cash. I got shit on everyone in this town.

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  64. TOLD YOU TO BUY

    HOPE YOU DID BUY!! 5-DMA

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