As insane as my holdings are, actually, they are working today, thanks to the fucktardedness of those who created the 300% etf’s. My FAS (300% upside banks) is outstripping my FAZ (300% downside banks), by at least 2%, which makes no sense. And, FXP is up a few. On top of that, the few individual longs that I kept, like M, GU and GME, are doing just fine. And, even though the market is down, TNA is up.
Go figure.
Sometime soon, I want to sell all of my upside etf’s and embrace the downside, with great vigor. However, the market is as stubborn as an Ox in shit. So, for now, I’ll just wait it, keeping an open eye out for some sort of evil anvil to drop down on you bullish fuckers.
As an aside, “The Fly” is sick with some sort of dark aged plague. So, as you could understand, blogging isn’t exactly all that interesting to me right now. Nonetheless, I’ll make an effort to update you corn can fuckers, whenever I’m feeling good about my positions and shit.
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Obligatory first post…”fly is god”
As an aside, “The Fly” is sick with some sort of dark aged plague. So, as you could understand, blogging isn’t exactly all that interesting to me right now.
I had that same shit starting two days ago. Made me miss the Swanfest, damnit.
It’s gone, now, fwiw.
___________
Fly, do you still have the HK shorts? Petrohawk taking it in the balls today, down 13% and slipping.
Minyanville Staff
10:43:03 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Vibes from Minyan Tony “Snoop” Dwyer of FTN Midwest
Throughout this year, I’ve called for a massive coordinated rate cut by the global central banks, with a particular emphasis on the European Central Bank (ECB). That didn’t happen, and as a result the global credit markets and economic engine seized up. Today’s rate cuts by the Bank of England (from 3% to 2%) and ECB (from 3.25% to 2.50%) is like adding oil to an engine that isn’t working. It is never bad for the engine to have the added oil, and if it starts it will certainly make the engine run better – but on its own at this point, adding the oil is unlikely to make it start.
We are all sick of hearing what the current macro problems are and they are very identifiable to all – the credit markets are not functioning, consumption and business spending has fallen off a cliff and the global growth “decoupling” story was an overinvested in myth.
Since we know the problem, let’s focus on the early signs that the global engine is ready to start again…
* 90-day U.S. T-bills move closer to where the Fed Funds target is likely to be cut to by the January FOMC meeting. FTN Financial’s Chief Economist, Chris Low expects Fed Funds target to ultimately be 0.25%. This could come all at once by 75 basis points at the December meeting, or 50 basis point then and 25 at the January meeting. As a result, an early sign of improvement would be the 90-day U.S. T-bills yielding 0.25% or more. The current yield is 0.01% (that is not a typo).
* Evidence of at least a multi-week trend of Commercial Paper (CP) new issuance outpacing Fed Commercial Paper purchasing. Over the past five weeks, the Fed has roughly bought $100 billion more CP than was issued suggesting any perceived improvement in the CP market is an illusion.
* Corporate Spreads begin to come down from actual buying on Investment Grade and High Yield debt. Spreads can come down if U.S. Treasury yields begin to move up, but we need to see actual institutional investor demand for corporate paper, that to date does not exist.
* Clearly, stocks have proved they can do anything on an intraday or even multiday basis. As a result, I continue to advise staying out of the way (long/short funds as light in exposure as possible and long only funds as neutral to benchmark as possible) because absent any of the above signs of improvement, it is a directional guess due to the historic and unique nature of the fundamental and technical backdrop. Over the past two weeks, the S&P Financial Sector had intraday moves of nearly 20% in both directions.
* My firm’s view is that you don’t want to become overly optimistic due to the fundamental backdrop or overly pessimistic due to the severity of the economic and financial market decline already. It is very important to remember that even if you miss immediate upside, investors and traders should clearly get a chance to buy near the low (SPX 750) with the knowledge that credit has dramatically improved. The only major bear market low we can find that was NOT retested was in 1942. All others were retested at some point – usually months – following the initial low.
Great pic
Fucking TNA blasted up so I put a 5% trailing stop on it. Don’t you know I got stopped out for a break even trade. I’d do better putting the money on the fucking money wheel in AC
Why hold both upside and downside positions only to remove the upside. If you’re timing the market, why not just wait and buy the downside stuff when appropriate?
Stupid question maybe? I guess you can buy a bunch of stuff and get a little lucky like you report today…
Hope you feel better soon Fly.
The Fly seems to get sick an awful lot. I think there is a message buried in there somewhere between bad pizza and the sniffles.
Speaking of sickness, i’ve come to realize recently the upside to having a raging head cold when you also get the flu is that you cannot taste the vomit when you are wretching uncontrollably into a toilet.
Also, being too sick to trade this market probably saves money.
If we had the Art Hogan bottom, I’m calling this one the Art Vandaley top at 875.
RBM –it’s a triple long, so a 5% trailing stop is insane. Think about tripling your stop.
Or at least doubling.
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Flyblog Public Service Announcement as Mandated by the FCC:
Kids, don’t do drugs. Oh, and UUP (-0.21).
________
One of you geniuses explain to me why crude, nat. gas, and the DBA commodities are getting hammered whilst the euro screams upwards?
Crude = $45.46
What a fucking loser!
LoL
8)
Get a Neti Pot.
-DT
Was also stricken by this evil plague recently. Took about a week to recover.
Feel better soon, Uncle Hucklebuck.
I must admit, that’s the coolest fro-cap I’ve ever seen.
Ok, it’s the only fro-cap I’ve ever seen.
Natty is flirting dangerously with 6. If its not careful it will get a VD.
Buy the dips is back.
ERX prints $45
‘Tis the season for das Grippe. I had it over Thanksgiving weekend, fun stuff.
Fly Jr Says:
Buy the dips is back.
ERX prints $45
When?
Stops of any kind on the 3xs only result in zero or negative results. They must be closely watched, and hopped in and out of on a dime.
Get well soon or Bernanke will win the Stanley Cup.
http://i.cnn.net/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0706/ducks.win.cup/images/niedermayer_getty.jpg
Calling your readers “corn can fuckers” is a sign that you’re on the road to recovery.
Open up a can of chicken noodle soup and enjoy.
Jr:
Listen up here son. I am going to save you a lot of money.
OIL IS DEAD. Sub $60, oil rigs will lay down in the mud. You will lose an enormous amount of money in ERX.
Be smart, get long DUG or ERY instead.
FLY – Don’t think I didn’t catch your snide comments about me sucking my cock. I was in your hometown Noo Yawk Shitty all of last week. The place is a fucking train wreck. Looks like the Great Depression there. People lighting fires in garbage cans and huddling around to keep warm, chicks on street corners offering to blow you for a McDee’s value meal, homeless population the size of China living in the subway stations . Fuck that shit.
Back to business. I wouldn’t short the markets here unless we close up 200+ or something like. I would than short in anticipation of a dip tomorrow cause of Unemployment report. A very weak close should be bought.
In other news Crude oil is gay but I would buy it in anticipation of a run to $200 in the next 3 years. Fundamentally nothing has changed. We are running out of oil.
Technically the market appears to have bottomed. The bottom was the 10th of October. The dip we had November 20th was to shake out the last of the remaining bulls prior to the move up. Its a fairly classic type bottom but one that most people miss despite it being so obvious. Volume is a tell. Volume has been heavier on up days. The market has been strong heading into the close.
Get long all those 3x bull ETFs and sit back and relax till mid March.
Some unpleasant visuals there, alpha.
Home builders are ripping … they’ve just doubled off the bottom
Fly, Jr. (my, they grow up so fast!) —
Agreed, if ERX can hold this recent low here, it’s going to be the buy of a lifetime, ovah heah.
_______
I have shorted the BOOM. I will it to go to $9. Thank you for listening.
amen. amen. across the land, traders nibble on the polyps of homorific PMs. “tax loss selling or window dressing?”, what will keep my Alden’s shiny they ask?
feel better fly.
I wonder how that fucking devil, Exxon, will keep its operating margins in tact when crude is at $32?
These scumbags are gonna get fisted!
Fuckers!
Now that FXP is finally behaving, SRS has gone FUCKtarded.
Market down 1%, SRS down 4%.
Anyone? WTF?
Or just the usual dietf bullshit?
this is indeed a fucked market…
Interesting way to hedge, Fly. Best you can do as this current environment takes the fucktard award for complete shenanigans.
Mortgage rates at new lows. Shit — I’m buying a house today!
XOM starting to fall. This has been a trend setter for the last few sessions.
Gee, a reversal day DOWN. Who knew?
Karl –
I keep adding SRS. Hope it hasn’t jumped the shark and gone FXP-bullshit-crazy on us.
At some point all this liquidity is going to cause the price of oil to skyrocket if for nothing else than the fact that it is priced in $$.
Is the VIX forming an inverse head and shoulders on the 5day 15 min chart?
Cap sez:
I was in your hometown Noo Yawk Shitty all of last week. The place is a fucking train wreck. Looks like the Great Depression there. People lighting fires in garbage cans and huddling around to keep warm, chicks on street corners offering to blow you for a McDee’s value meal, homeless population the size of China living in the subway stations . Fuck that shit.
Total lie. The only homeless fuckers I saw were a pair of “Song and Dance” men doing the “pass the hat sing & shuffle” on the 6 local going up to 59th Street from Bleeker (littlest bro house).
And they were grinning like the were in a Busby Berkely review, seemingly “well coked up” on their proceeds.
Back to business. I wouldn’t short the markets here unless we close up 200+ or something like. I would than short in anticipation of a dip tomorrow cause of Unemployment report. A very weak close should be bought.
Agreed.
In other news Crude oil is gay but I would buy it in anticipation of a run to $200 in the next 3 years. Fundamentally nothing has changed. We are running out of oil.
$200 might be a stretch, but I’d say $80 was back in the deck.
Technically the market appears to have bottomed. The bottom was the 10th of October. The dip we had November 20th was to shake out the last of the remaining bulls prior to the move up. Its a fairly classic type bottom but one that most people miss despite it being so obvious. Volume is a tell. Volume has been heavier on up days. The market has been strong heading into the close.
You may want to speak to Young Daniel-san about the bolded bit. His work seems to state hidden selling and weak buying recently.
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NEW LOWS this month. CAP is fucked.
I need this bitch to turn around asap….. Lets go motha fuckaaaaaaaa lets GO
market is down 100 yet FAZ is down 1.5 points. What is going on with this thing? I am an idiot but isn’t this thing supposed to be an inverse??
The Contractor Says:
At some point all this liquidity is going to cause the price of oil to skyrocket if for nothing else than the fact that it is priced in $$.
Contractor:
I agree, but won’t that happen AFTER the deflationary period we may be entering?
Getting out of TNA, will go short soon.
Buy FDO here @ 23.30 down 10%
CRUDE = $44.54!
We’re gonna bankrupt that little commie fucker down in Venezuela. They’re gonna hang him … wait and see.
Market is down yet SKF is down by a far greater amount.
Odd no ? Financials lead the way up.
bravo–
I dunno. I’d say we’re well into a deflationary period now and considering how aggressive the Fed and Treasury have been in expanding their balance sheets and a socialist president on the way that wants to increase govt. spending it seems to me that inflation or stagflation is coming sooner than later but I’m just an internet fucktard.
Today’s following the recent daily pattern – weak open, strength mid-morning, weak ass afternoon that makes it feel like it’s going to drop off the end of the table, mad rush into stocks at day’s end. Finish green.
Downtrending market starts the day strong and finishes weak.
Uptrending markets start the day weak and finish strong.
It simply feels this past week like we’ve gone through a trend shift … from down to up, no?
Get a piece of the rock. Forward P/E of 4, if you believe what they are saying today.
Beginning to buy blocks of BGZ and ERY.
With all due respect to our government and policy makers…
Do they really need to have a circle jerk before they waste another 25 billion?
I mean c’mon man, just print some crisp $100 bills and drop them over Detroit already!
FDO should not be down 10% on qtr sales figures. Looks like weakness triggered massive stops under 24. I bought huge @ 23.30
Yeah, I just got this feeling that something wicked this way comes…the market is going to get jerked one way or the other by either financials or oil. I can’t believe we’re through yet on the downside, but markets do indeed climb the wall of worry.
I harken back to Fly’s warning this time last year. I am really listening this time….
Forget the helicopters
their gonna need a bigger boat
http://i35.tinypic.com/11vh0s6.jpg
Downtrending market starts the day strong and finishes weak.
Uptrending markets start the day weak and finish strong.
Eye no stuff – Exactly. This pattern has also been repeating across Europe. This is a big change from Oct and Nov where we had strong opens followed by selling through the day save those 600 – 900 point days.
Fly, what’s up with all these barnyard metaphors? I’m worried you’re going country on us.
The market is poised to go up a 1000 or down a 1000, everyone is just waiting.
In case you didn’t realize, the market has bottomed. I am normally a major short on the market, but I believe we have hit a snag in the thesis. Time for the market to rise substantially.
No reason to look for an opportunity to short since those days are now behind us for the time being. Embrace the bounce and prosper.
For those that don’t believe me, simply take a look at things like the homebuilders. They have rallied past any point of reality.
LEN is at $9 after bottoming under $4, 2 weeks ago. This rally has legs gentlemen, no reason to fight it.
HK down 17% now. I gotta thank the Fly for this one. Been shorting and covering this one as it bounces around for weeks, and today is the big coin day. Thanks Sr. Tropicana!
GA Says:
The market is poised to go up a 1000 or down a 1000, everyone is just waiting.
And that is what is maddening. Maximum frustration. This wait may take longer than most think. Will the volatility still be there?
On another note, doesn’t congress already know whether or not they are going to give the auto’s a bailout? The fucking grandstanding is sickening. Dodd grates me…
Jakegint:
I’ve been using 15% when getting in just so I don’t lose a bunch when it drops 10-15% the first couple of hours I’m in. I think charlie is right and you just have to sit and watch these 3x’s with the volatility going on these days.
Ok, so far, DD called the bottom at 12:19 on the weak 1% “reversal.” This is like watching paint dry, though.
Anyone like my FDO trade?
We’re gonna bankrupt that little commie fucker down in Venezuela. They’re gonna hang him … wait and see.
From your mouth, etc.
I’m thinking Mussolini style for “el Jefe.”
Of course, this could be the way Paulson goes out, at this rate.
___________
Henry, I’m a long term fan of FDO. Not sure low end retail would be my first choice in a rebound market, but if you feel you have an edge, go for it.
_______________
Just came out of the plague haze myself today. took two days to feel non-fucked. as i was sweating through my catch-22 pajamas i read an article in the ny daily news that NYC ER’s were seeing over 400 cases a day of that mofo.
good luck.
Sham-Wow, Natty below 6.
Adding to -3xs
TLT breaking out.
Thunderpup, I assume you’re long and wrong. As far as me calling a bottom…S&P 150.
Long and well-hedged with puts – I just want some action. Perfect set-up pitch for the bears here, right over the plate.
HERE WE GO (DOWN). Vix rising, GS falling.
Crude now $43.98
Death to the evil Dino Shit!
The Towel heads are about to revolt.
Emergency OPEC cut coming.
Oil sub $45 is a fart in the wind
Thanks Jakegint I’ve been buying oversold situations and selling pops. I bought SWHC @ 1.80 last week and sold today for 2.55 I like SWHC up to $4 but it’s over bought.
FDO traded under lower BB band that’s where I like to buy these days.
People, take a look at LEN. The price action today wreaks of manipulation by someone with big money.
It looks as though they are holding the price down, but I believe they are actually holding the price up to get out of their position. Any ideas would be helpful.
The XHB Daily Chart…
…is actually starting to look (dare I say it)…IMPRESSIVE !
——————-
There I said it !
.
frack this frackin’ market!!