The U.S. government has agreed to guarantee over $300 billion of Citigroup’s troubled assets — loans and securities backed by residential and commercial real estate and other such assets.
UPDATE: Details, via Federal Reserve website. Preferred stock exercisable north of $10. Sounds good to me.
On a bank rally, here is a list of stocks worth following/buying:
[[WBK]] Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) [[STD]] Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] JPMorgan Chase & Co. [[JPM]] Banco Itau Holding Financeira S.A. (ADR) [[ITU]] BlackRock, Inc. [[BLK]] PNC Financial Services [[PNC]] Signature Bank [[SBNY]] Umpqua Holdings Corporation [[UMPQ]] BancorpSouth, Inc. [[BXS]] The Bank of Nova Scotia (USA) [[BNS]]
UPDATE: Citi opened +50% in Germany. Here is link to quote.
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Booyah, indeed. Glad I have a few C Dec $5 calls. Papa needs a win, damn it.
long 225,000 C, like a gambling casino maven.
Hopefully, this puts me on my way to owning 225,000 of anything someday.
fuck. i knew i should have doubled my UYG position before the close friday.
looks like C should rip nicely.
It’s so cool that the government has an endless supply of dollars.
Gimme a break, the equity is toast. Also, you fail to mention that the 225,000 C are at $5+
$300 billion!!! HOLY SHEEET.
This will help C, but how will the market react? I see a very quick fade to any rally as people start to wonder: If the government will take $300 billion from Citi, what about BAC? What about WFC? What about GS? Will they be allowed to fail or will the govt. support them too?
I hope this rally sticks.
$300 billion. Fuck me.
200k from 5+
25k below $4.
The cost basis is not relevant, since the fair value of C is north of $10.
It’s just a matter of injecting confidence.
Dow 30,000!!!
NOTE: I get the sense I am jinxing myself, immensely by discussing this. No more C talk for me.
If past bailout rallies are any indication, this one might make it to 11am tops.
The Fly Says:
long 225,000 C, like a gambling casino maven.
Damn fly, I only have 100,000 of the fuckers. You should told me to buy more… hahahhaha
Hey Fly where do you reckon it will open. My guess is 10 bucks.
So the market will rally some this week, we were more oversold than a hooker in a cardboard box made from gingerbread. The question is what to do next… Watch the dollar, it will fall apart and then we can start the inflation party!!
J, forget 10, most likely it will make a 52-week high tomorrow.
C will open at 7, then sprint to $15, by weeks end.
And, much to my chagrin, so will FXP.
Bitter sweet, life is. Bitter sweet.
C to hit an all-time high by Sunday of next week.
Asia yawning over this Citi deal.
Bloomberg article about Asia, financials down on the Citi news
On one hand, I think it is reckless to claim victory before the battle begins.
On the other, I just want to tell shorts to have a wonderful time fleeing for cover tomorrow, as Citi moves up 80% and the market rallies by a minimum of 250 points.
Instead of choosing between the two, I will simply go to sleep knowing that I am not obligated to drink begger’s bourbon ( http://andyswan.com/blog/?p=118 ) for the next three days….which, by all accounts, was of more concern than the boatload of Citi stock I bought at 3.45 Friday.. http://twitter.com/AndySwan/status/1017090642
The strike price will be equal to $10.61 per share (the 20 day trailing
average ending on November 21, 2008). The warrants issued to UST are
not subject to reduction based on additional offerings.
Devildog and T MOE are walking dead. BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH to you fuckers, this is what you get for all the gloating last week. You’re going to give it all back and then some. Right from the nose!
Beat UYG at $3.25, fuckers.
True, it was only 10k shares, but I had a bad week, and wanted to step in slowly.
_______
Andy is a man of few words and many actions, unlike Howard.
RELEASE THE DOG!!!!
NOTE: I put him in the kennel Thursday night, knowing we’d rally on Friday. Hence the new blog header and all.
I’d like to hear from the DOG now.
Take a step back and realize what this is going to do to gold.
Sheet, the ink from the Benjamins is going to start coming off in people’s hands, it’s going to be so fresh…
________
re: C ..is there any major dilution?
no dilution
exercise price is 10.61.
is it too late to buy C early 2moro morning now?
Loaded to the gills with FAS at 13.8… let’s see what this baby can do…
Why aren’t you guys crying about the end of capitalism…socialistas?
Jake
Gold’s time will come, but maybe not just now, me thinks.
We haven’t really got on the printing money thing but that will come.
My trade idea that eventually you can’t hold money or bonds was a little too early. that’s going to show up soon enough.
I bought Aussie but it appears to be sagging.
It may be worth buying 1/3 of the gold trade just in case and average in, but one always has to have a stop in that shit as it can really fuck you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg
Can some1 explain to me why ASIA is down??
Ed
Who gives a shit if Asia’s down. let them wallow in their own misery.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg
newbiewantstomakemoney, Watch and learn.
Jake:
My broker just sent this to me.
Mint suspends orders amid rush to buy bullion
FEARS of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush.
With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.
As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion ($50.73 billion) in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before.
Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders.
He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying — making up 80 per cent of its sales. One European client purchased 30,000 ounces for $33 million.
“We have never seen this before and are working right at capacity. And we are seeing it from clients in the shop buying one ounce, right up to 30,000 ounces from overseas clients,” Mr Currie said.
Robert Jaggard, manager of bullion and rare coins dealer Jaggards, said business had picked up strongly and he expected it to increase further.
“All around the world there has been a heavy run on physical gold and there is a shortage of supply,” he said.
Mr Jaggard, who has been dealing in gold for 40 years and is an agent for the Perth Mint, said some clients were buying up to $1million worth of gold, paying a premium above the spot price.
Late yesterday afternoon, spot gold in Sydney was trading at $US747.30 an ounce, up $US8.15 on Thursday’s local close.
“Professional business people who have previously bought small amounts now want more gold because they are suffering in other markets,” Mr Jaggard said.
At a conference this week in Munich, delegates were lined up 30-deep to purchase physical gold. And reports out of the Middle East suggested that there had been unprecedented gold buying in Saudi Arabia during the first half of November, with an estimated $US3.5 billion purchased in recent weeks.
The World Gold Council, releasing its global demand trends yesterday, said identifiable investment demand, which incorporates demand for gold through exchange-traded funds and bars and coins, was the biggest contributor to overall demand during the quarter. It was up to $US10.7 billion, double last year’s levels.
The figures showed retail investment demand rose 121 per cent to 232 tonnes in the third quarter, with strong bar and coin buying reported in Swiss, German and US markets.
The quarter also witnessed widespread reports of gold shortages among bullion dealers across the globe, as investors searched for a haven. Overall, quarter three saw Europe reach an all-time record 51 tonnes of bar and coin buying. France became a net investor in gold for the first time since the early 1980s.
World Gold Council chief executive James Burton said gold’s universal role as a store of value had shone through during the quarter, helping attract investors and consumers to all forms of gold ownership.
“The rise in demand for gold bars and coins has been impressive,” he said.
Demand in India, the largest market for gold, recovered during the third quarter, encouraged by lower gold prices, a good monsoon and the onset of the festive season. At 250 tonnes, total consumer demand was 31 per cent higher than the same period last year. In value terms, demand hit the record quarterly sum of $US5 billion.
FXP warries me as usual, but lots of red in Asia still other than Nikkei
Woo Woo!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-fyZWn_0YA
Chastened by a brutal home loss, Jeff Fischer vows to unleash his “secret weapon” for the Titan’s Thanksgiving Day joust with Detroit.
________
Mdawz:
When you’re already dead, who cares if you get shot again?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGqroT1FZ5Y
nncoco, i ain’t see shit…
j,
sounds like marketing combined with urban myth
Via PPT, Potential Deep discount, bargain basement, bottom fishing screen:
Stocks ranked a “buy” (3.0 or higher), trading at least half its net cash.
No. Ticker Hybrid Score Net Cash/Share / Price
1 AEHR 3.08 0.554285
2 ANAD 3.27 1.07956
3 ATE 3.16 0.645774
4 CISG 3.02 0.910617
5 CYNO 3.06 0.527652
6 GCOM 3.22 0.653171
7 GSOL 3.19 0.827119
8 GU 3.12 1.25093
9 HTX 3.11 0.530564
10 JASO 3.04 0.711924
11 MAXY 3.06 0.965912
12 MLNK 3.42 1.00826
13 NCTY 3.27 0.689891
14 NPD 3.27 0.617976
15 NTE 3.02 1.19764
16 NTGR 3.53 0.544952
17 NWY 3.24 1.2004
18 PCR 3.01 0.933824
19 PCTI 3.25 0.615713
20 PDS 3.25 0.750779
21 PRO 3.31 0.522662
22 SPRD 3.16 1.85197
23 SWIR 3.21 0.5947
24 WTSLA 3.14 0.645568
25 YZC 3.74 0.550563
El
Yea, some of it does, but there does seem to be an awful amount of bullion purchases going on. The Perth mint is a world recognized name.
I think the US version has also recently run into shortages.
Fly: Ok, so when an infantryman loses his leg to a howitzer, he wouldn’t be pissed if someone cut out his eyes with a razor blade?
MDAWZ:
The patient is NOT alive. This discussion is irrelevant. Capitalism dies a long time ago.
VIZ.
Goddammit, for the last time, it’s mdawsz…with an s.
And no caps either, sir.
it is not. Your name is MDAWZ.
Stay away from NPD.
If bullion shortages are true I would have expected to see prices reflecting the same and not hearing about shortages first…just my thoughts
Q: Why do nuns never walk alone?
A: So one nun can make sure the other nun gets NONE!
not necessarily, El.
most of us just trade paper gold, so you could have a shortage in the physical and the ” paper” price goes down.
I think it’s quite an effort to get delivery from the exchanges.
JPM is God’s bank now. Old JP must be proud, and me too, since I loaded up @20. something
fuck Tokyo is closed…duh
Whew! I’m glad the gov’t was able to solve that Citi problem. Depression over! Nothing to see here folks. Move along. Go back to your egregious borrowing and spending. Dow 14K again soon.
Most of Asia wasn’t privy to the actual deal. Euro futures are decidedly green.
How long can the FDIC take losses of this size?
j,
haven’t had trouble getting physicals for clients…
Can the central bank print money? Does a bear shit in the woods? FDIC can’t fail or the system crumbles, but is it the FDIC bailing out C?
El
My point is that you could have a shortage of physical while the price is going down.
What ever happened to gold/silver certificates?
Yrs ago you could go into a large bank and buy either at the market price less a small holding fee on the buy and the sell.
I held silver that way and sold at an egregious profit without ever taking delivery or having to finance.
If I’m reading it right (and I may not be), the FDIC is on the hook for about 60% of Citi losses beyond $29B.
Details – 10% of losses after $29B on Citi’s tab, 90% on Gov. tab ($10 of every $15 of Gov. losses hit the FDIC, 67%).
Citi picks up first $29B so – $306B – $29B = $277B
If you assume the whole thing is lost then:
First 10% on Citi’s tab = $27.7B
Remaining 90% for Gov. to pay – $277B – $27.7B = $249B
Tarp – 33% of $249B = $82.3B
FDIC – 67% of $249B = $166.8B
ultimately it’s the same pot as it can’t fail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gibErmQ_zro
yup reek(sp?) show
http://lenderama.com/2008/08/the-fdic-how-safe-is-your-money-anyway/
Thanks, Boca.
To all the C & UYG longs, niiice.
Thanks Ants
Appreciate your comment.
Short ban may be coming back
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122720744635845029.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Citi opens up 50% higher in Germany.
Here is ticker.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TRV.BE
They could be looking at what happened here in Oz, Fly and collecting our bad habits.
They just lifted the short ban last week here, but left the banks protected under the existing rule. So you can short everything else other than banks.
Here’s my read.
I reckon the Feds had blackrock do a quick and dirty on Citi’s balance and they came up with the risk parameters which actually may mean that Citi wasn’t in as bigger danger as the street thought..
In other words the deal seems to infer that Citi’s loss risk is about $30 billion and that’s on the outside.
Citi therefore appears fine and is actually a decent bet from here as their earning power is still 20 billion a year as a going concern even during a downturn of the size being estimated by Goldman’s…. when you take the 2 billion a month in savings they can extract by booting the excess staff.
Sorry.
I should sounded a little more sensitive… terminating the excess staff.. not booting.
Futures down 95 points, they must have had this priced in already…
Jake:
I heard rumors all last week that China was buying gold. I discounted that as just crap, however the price movement of lat Friday from 73ish to 807 is a pretty big move that may indicate there was a strong buyer in the gold market. fWIW.
Well they must have pushed futures down 125 points for someone to unload their shorts. Now +90, this game is so rigged.
4fl3x dont even bother with futures. Especially this week, futures won’t mean anything. in fact, this week will probably be as anticlimactic as they get.
Gio, that’s not what Europe is saying…
May the DevilDog NOT rest in peace.
Fucker only shows up when he’s winn’n & grinn’n. Let’s see him come out like a man when his front teethes are getting pushed in; like The Fly, who at times, appears to be losing, badly, but isn’t.
Are you referring to the DevilDouche?
Juice:
The Fly had him in his kennel until Friday at which point the dog may have refused to interact because he was pissed at how he was being treated. Personally i don’t blame Fly for keeping the cage semi closed.
anyways back to the market. It looks like the chosen 9 are protected species so they have to be treated with respect.
C et al are going up for that reason.
I like the DDouche.
He should be allowed to mouth off. The cockier he gets, the closer he is to getting his ball hairs torn out by a deranged rabid hooker.
It looks like SDP got DevilDouched on Friday. Whoa.
Ass napkin and Kass are shorting citi at the open. stock finishes under 4 today.
NY Giants claim defunct firm Lehman Brothers owes team $300M
why do you think it’s closing below 4 bucks, Ass N?
It’s not the first time in US history that there was a bear market during republican rule followed by a bull market in a period of democratic rule. I’ll admit that the level of greed is particularly egregious, but when has that NOT been true. I don’t see any reason why the previous market highs won’t be exceeded, but I still suspect the october lows will be retested sometime during the first quarter of 2009. I still see a rally into the end of the year.
If the bears can keep citi down or break it–the market will stay down. People will start to question everything about the deal and when that happens….its usually bad for the market.
I can only say one thing about this market. If you are wearing any naked shorts, put something on would ya? The bulls are lining up for ya. lol.
j Says:
why do you think it’s closing below 4 bucks, Ass N?
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Answer: Because he read it on an Ass Napkin!!!
J–
I still am a firm believer that until people are less bullish and really throw in the towel, this market is a short. Esp. on EVERY move up. It has worked everytime and will continue to work til all the bulls finally give up and say “fuck it, this market sucks, and Im not going to even look for a rally anymore”
I think its BAD out there. I also think that it is the greatest market ever to trade. The bulls keep putting money in our pocket everytime they can rally the market for a day or so. This by far is my best year ever. The past month I have made the majority of my money. Do you notice how bullish everyone gets on a little spike up or a piece of bullish news? Its crazy. Reading the papers,blogs, etc this weekend, you would believe that the market is going to rip higher this week and that we are going staight up to dow 10k.
No way. Way to may people dying for a rally, in a desperate way.
I don’t necessarily disagree Ass N as the tape proves your point however its a brave comment to suggest the bears can push C down after the bailout.
Now the C shareloholder have been diluted somewhat and there’s no div for the next three years, however the other side of that is that C isn’t going bust. That’s worth looking at the stock differently.
So the best is as follows in C .
1. How much is the dilution worth…
2. how much the new bailout is worth.
The bailout far outride the dilution which I think means C goes higher. It also makes it a take over candidate at the lower price as the downside is really fucking protected now.
I’m actually buying more of C is the opening price is reasonable for that reason.
The market can do what it likes, but C is a great buy if it trades on the low side.
The break up value or the take over value is 15 bucks plus.
Sorry should read
So the BET is as follows in C.
Napkin,
What if the capitulation already occurred ? The risk associated with being caught with naked shorts during a correction has caused a lot of good men to jump from buildings because there is no end to the goat fuck once it starts.
AssNap – we rip higher this week & may hit Dow 10k by Dec 1. The sharpest rallies occur in bear markets.
JakeGint, how about grabbing your wallet and pushing the Q’s over $27.50 😛
Rally will be over by noon. Trade accordingly.
congrats on C.
I am selling this rally.
The problem has now switched from deflation to hyper-inflation. Good job guys. Buy gold in whatever way you can.
The market will probably rip for the next couple of hours. What happens after that, who knows. Ideally, it would be nice to see a retest of the lows to flush the last hands out before we refers and push the fuck higher for an intermediate bottom to be put in place. However, we may not see that.
Good luck.
Top stocks: ANV and SLW.
Pimp Daddy,
You’re absolutely right. I’ve been bearish on gold the past few months, but the breakout on Friday is not to be underestimated. Gold has outperformed oil and every other asset class (except dollar and yen) in a big way. With industrial commodities crushed and many hedge funds now out of business and fully liquidated, the market seems to be shifting from a net deflation to net inflation scenario given the magnitude of the policy response by the US government. Gold and silver must be bought on dips.
So what do we do with C now? Tempted to take gains as I also have C leaps and Short SKF from $286.
If you guys are bullish on gold, bank stocks will go up from here as that too is a reflation trade.
technically i would trust gold until it broke 840 ish
Take look at the chart.
2:30 or so Friday afternoon I said fuck it, threw up my hands, resigned myself to losing everything and decided I didn’t care, shut off all external media, and started drinking.
Due to the positive results, I am starting the same program this morning before the open. I figure if I put in a full day, I can get the Dow to 10k, and my blood alcohol level to .25, by this afternoon.
Unlike some others, I am not willing to suck my own dick, or anyone else’s, if the market rallies.
Speaking of sucking, wow, Tennesee Titans yesterday…
Reading around this morning, sounds like everyone is expecting this rally to fade. So there will probably be a pullback and big ass squeeze just like my wingman predicted this weekend.
Enjoy your bullshit rally…
Who is next to get put to bed? JPM, BAC, or GS…
Nice trade FLY, but the shorts are alive and well.
If we follow the same pattern of the 30’s then we still have another 30-50% of downside followed by 20 years of sideways action….can’t wait for the carnival to get rolling.
Protect yourself with gold and guns…my latest edition:
M6A2 Caliber:
6.8 x 43mm SPC
Weight Without Mag 14” bbl: 6.8 lb
Overall Length: 34.5 inches
Stock Retracted: 31 inches
http://www.lwrifles.com/