Shockingly enough,the market is down again, led by banks. The easy route is for me to get all bearish and shit again, calling for another “Grande Depression.” However, I believe in the Turkey Gods, as well as Santa Claus, and I will not buy [[SKF]] or [[SRS]] above $200—just on principal alone.
Our manufacturing base is insolvent. Big fucking deal. Can we have a Turkey rally already?
I’m telling you now, I got turkey on my brain. I’m obsessed with this shit. I find myself, while in top mental form, hanging pictures of turkeys on my office wall and writing the words “gobble-gobble” on my whiteboard.
At the end of the day, life is all about looking forward to Turkey Day rallies, isn’t it?
In all seriousness, look for a retest of 8k soon. I’m hedged by 20% and will take profits on the remainder of my shorts today, while praying to the Turkey Gods for a little lift in my longs.
Just to rehash:
I am long [[FXP]] , [[DUG]] , [[EEV]] , [[SDS]] , [[REW]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[UYM]] , [[M]] , [[ROM]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] .
My plan is to start selling the rest of my inverses soon, but hold onto my Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] short forever, or until it hits $8. With the proceeds, I will leave it in the money market account and wait for a good time to step in on the long side. After I’m done, I will have close to 50% cash.
NOTE: I sold out all of my [[FXP]] , north of $82.
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The Turkey Gods, like the world’s economies, are dead.
I saw a few swimming in the Black sea.
They texted me, they’re stuck in midtown traffic, they said they’re on their way.
Sit tight.
Turkeys can’t text buddy. You sir, are a liar.
They are scared of an early turkey season. Good eats.
SRS and SKF should be penalized for piling on. Where’s the ref?
Those weren’t Turkey Gods, they were Wild Turkey drunken delusions. Down we go!
They said, “Triple AAA Commercial Paper spreads have gone parabolic from 200bp to over 550bp in the last few days signaling an impending credit meltdown gobble gobble.”
And then they flew away to greener pastures in Romania.
Public Service Announcement:
New Child Labor Laws:
Children will be forced to work over the age of 5. It is illegal for them to work under the age of 5.
Other Information: We now declare ownership of all businesses. If you own a business, we now own it. We will tell you exactly how we want you to run it.
Consumers, we will tell you what to buy.
Essentiallly we will run america and control it. We will tell you what to buy, what to eat, what to wear, we will instal laser beams that are motion activated across the border. We are putting america on lockdown. You can escape, it’s just that you will be burned by a laser beam if you do so.
We will spend on whatever we feel like.
That is all.
Signed,
The Government
You do know what happens to turkeys before Thanksgiving fly? Chop, chop.
The Turkey Gods are obviously preoccupied with the important matter of selling their stocks.
Did anyone see my testicles?
UYG to zero
im trying to blow out my account before Thanksgiving.
awesome
I threw in the towel on the long side. We can rally now.
Burp. I ate them.
Phht.
Toothpick, please.
Im long SMN but buying SPY every 20 cents down.
why? to prevent against market fuckery on the upside.
t gods are hidden in the corner for the big toilet flush coming now
En route.
C to zero
Capitalism is over. It was a nice experiment while it lasted.
Everytime someone in DC opens their mouth, this mkt tanks
FLY, the TURKEY FARMER is Posting PORN. Please delete that shit.
thank you
The maahket’s under pressure like Lou Ferrigno on coke.
Turkey subs from Subway next Thurs.
Gee, somebody remind j who said we would go to new lows on the 19th.
Anybody seen GENERATIONAL Bottom?
Also, I’ve now increased my SSF to 60 due to the latest rally bullshit from that idiot eye know stuff.
And just to help all the bulltards out here is your contra indicator:
DEVILDOG says we rally to S&P 1200 today!
Anyone remember WKRP in Cincinnati? I just remembered the episode in which they drop live turkeys from a helicopter.
http://radio.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=radio&cdn=gadgets&tm=11&f=00&su=p504.1.336.ip_&tt=2&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http%3A//www.radioearth.com/VideoWKRPTurkeyDrop.html
Fly did you see Macy’s CDS are going way up? Markit says 848bps on 5Y, daily change 97, a big mover yesterday.
Gobble gobble, fuckers.
It’s all good…
…white meat…dark meat…breasts…drumsticks…wings !
——————
Uhhh…pass me a roll please !
Fly…could you pass the butter ?
.
Anyone got any porn?
$DJT just made a new ’08 low. One down. Don’t worry j, M1, M2 and M3 will come to the rescue.
Turkey Rally given Presidential Pardon.
I know. They are pricing in chapter 11 at M. I insist, they have a rock solid line of credit with JPM and BAC through 2012.
It would suck for M to go all the way. But, it is a small position and will not hurt me if it did. I refuse to sell down here.
Minyanville Staff
11:33:26 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Vibes from Minyan Tony “Snoop” Dwyer of FTN Midwest
On Friday, I highlighted how stressed the current credit market is and how when that is the case, the best we can hope for is to stay in the current S&P 500 range of 840 to 1000. My fundamental conclusion, which I reiterated Friday, has not changed for a while:
If you are unable or unwilling to make tactical moves in this environment (which means having the ability to switch on a dime given we can see 10% intraday moves), I’d continue to advise long/short funds stay as light in exposure as possible, and long-only funds stay as neutral to benchmarks as possible with an underweight in the global growth theme sectors and slight overweight in defensive sectors highlighted above.
This intermediate-term fundamental view is based upon a historic degree of stress in the credit market that has now basically shut down global economic activity. Despite all the unique efforts by the Treasury Department and global central banks, this credit stress and global economic dislocation have not improved and have actually worsened:
Credit spreads to 10-yr U.S. Treasury yields continue to show extreme stress. Agency and High Yield debt spreads hit a new record AGAIN yesterday. It is impossible to predict when the economy will bottom out when credit spreads are this dislocated.
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping rates in the highest traveled shipping routes remains at its recent low. The shipping rate index dropped over 90% in recent months suggesting a shutting down of shipping and likely reflects very weak global activity. Nearly every industrialized nation has officially moved into a recession. With the global credit markets getting even worse, calling for the end of the economic weakness is a total guess.
What is the Worst Case Scenario on Tactical Call? I’ve maintained a tactical position of “dipping a toe” into the market when it reaches the lower end of the trading range and has an oversold condition. At this point, I have 3 of 10 toes dipped into the market with the intention of increasing exposure on dramatic weakness. Hopefully, as highlighted above, I’ve made it clear that this tactical call is ONLY for those that can be very nimble. The question most often asked to us on our tactical call is – what happens if the market breaks the lower end of the range?
Will I remove toes on closing below SPX 835? Hopefully, that won’t happen. If the S&P 500 closes below the lower end of the range, I would remove my three toes so they don’t get cut off. Absent fundamental improvement, when such a clear range is broken, you obtain a technical target by taking the spread of the range and subtracting it from the breakdown price. In the case of the S&P 500 front month futures, the target would be 680, which I get by taking the spread of the range (1000-840=160) subtracted from the breakdown price of 840. Hopefully, the market won’t close below 840 and I can continue dipping my toes into the market.
BOOMER
thanks for the WKRP memory….loved that show….can’t remember the name of the nerdy girl who countered the obvious hot blonde, always preferred the hot nerdy girls myself…
“Bailey”
Butterball Helpline: 1-800-Butterball
Long 2K AMAT 8.75…probably just a trade again as Wall Street is in pussy mode.
Gobble-gobble.
Dog
No fuckknuckle, we weren’t talking about DJT hitting a new low. You were saying the S&P/Dow was going to crash today. You’re wrong. Admit it. Aplogize for being wrong and move on.
A little bit of humility goes a long way douchebag.
You what’s really odd?
Here in Wisconsin; they are building homes, malls are packed and 3/4 of the vehicles driving down the roads are big ass trucks getting 10 mpg.
De-lever Detroit and get this ovah wit.
Hey Yang-
Get your ass over here — on your knees motherfucker!
Here in NY, 16 year old girls are still getting Porsche Cayennes for their birthday.
Mr. Fly:
Where does one watch the Macy’s CDS rates?
LOL at Zen.
I have all the turkeys that were heading to the rally roasting in my oven right now, 325 degrees, basted, and stuffed with cornbread dressing flavored with sausage, sage and onion. Mmmmm.
I haven’t got the heart to buy stocks anymore.
This whaddya call it, stock market, is desperately fuckin’ queer. Sheesh. Rockin’ it Barney Frank-style.
Go the perfume section at Macy’s and ask for their latest cds’s.
Personally, I like my turkeys brined.
Thanks.
Deep fried Turkey is where it’s at.
Hey Scully,
How bout long CWTR
Fly what does ppt say about Fat Mountain Bitches
I had some nice delicious turkey loin the other night. Cooked well done, like this rally.
Here in NY, 16 year old girls are still getting Porsche Cayennes for their birthday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMbdWhQw_G0
fuck this…im going to do some pushups.
maybe we will get the ubiquitous “gay” rally in the last half hour
Brining turkey is where it’s at.
one broker’s story at Lehman-good laugh here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjX6aKLy2N4
“As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.”
Second test of 830 of the day approaching. Do or die.
Trading is gonna SUCK when every single stock is below $10.
-DT
Those son of a bitches do fly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHBmHnIhOME&feature
Are we dead yet
j, looks like your DOWN $14K on BEAV. Good move.
Will the govm’t pay me to take a loan yet?? Can the 10 yr yield go neg?????
Sold the rest of my FXP at 82.40… I’m content with those gains Jake. What do you think ? NOV is tickling my grundle and hope that it makes a move soon.
Anyone have any suggestions on short CDS ETFs I think its a great move ?
F Turkeys – life is all about banking coin – get jazzed with FAZ – up nearly 20% already. Embrace the BEAR and eat a black swan instead of turkey.
The turkeys are being hunted by the bears. I, as a bear, will have smoked turkey and fried turkey, along with seared roast beef.
Hopefully some of you got on GS as I said two weeks ago and fucked her like the whore she is.
Dog
You fucking idiot, I’m 35% invested.
On the other hand you were 185% leveraged when the market rallied 20%. So don’t tell me my 20G loss is a ” good move” Eistein.
Think of of it like this fuckhead.
On that 20% move you lost $370,000 on a one million doll pos.
1,000,000 * 1.85 = 1,850,000*20% = 370,000
One 20% move I lose $70,000 on a one million equiv. and have 65% of my money to play with.
Now fuck off Einstein.
Anonymous-
I like the Black Swan plug. My book of choice this past weekend and week while I sit on the beach on the Big Island and observe my hot ass wife in her new bikini.
On the subject of Turkey Day, it’s worth revisiting the best George Bush impersonation I’ve ever seen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTjZhhfPSno
UUP is my Moby Dick.
Large Sell stick at 12:30, but up from there.
Perplexing, to say the least.
____
T Moe-
I’ve been right there, in that same situation. Life is about great experiences with the one’s you love the most. Enjoy you lucky fucker!
8)
Oh damn, my first C leaps order got triggered.
That Thad dude had a great speech, hope that gets youtubed.
just bought UYG and sold the DEC 5 for $1
20% if called
Christmas money.
For all practical purposes, C has already failed. It should now be allowed to do so formally and file Ch. 11 with GM, F and Mopar.
Sold the rest of my FXP at 82.40… I’m content with those gains Jake. What do you think ? NOV is tickling my grundle and hope that it makes a move soon.
Impressive. I cannot force myself to go short here, just like this time last year I could not force myself to go long.
Stupid, I know.
I like NOV long term here, if you really seek my opinion. 😉
_______
“Mopar” lol.
Fly — Scully needs a tab, with an “X-files” themed banner, please.
_______
Turkeys don’t have Olds Factories, meaning they can’t smell the shit strench of death coming off the street.
Is anyone looking at Natty stocks? MCF CHK?
short CDS ETF ??????????? is there such a thing yet ???
Detroit is having a tremendous Thanksgiving Sale.
For a limited time only, and for less than the price of an extra value meal at Mickey D’s – you can buy one share of GM, plus one share of F for only $4.
BUT WAIT! Today only, they’ll also throw in a share of Sirius/XM free with each purchase.
Hurry, while supplies last.
Jakegint,
You’re not stupid at all, chief.
You’re a smart guy. The market is extremely oversold right now. This market hasn’t paid anyone shorting weakness in the last 2 weeks. I covered most of my shorts — waiting for the next pop to resistance to reload the short bets. This is a mean-reversion tape. You cant short with the market down 270 points and hope to do well.
Patience prevails.
-Phil
Wow… Market literally hit the “fuck-you” switch. Holy shit. I would NOT want to be an investor in this depressionary tape. Fuck that.