What to do?
On one hand, stocks appear to be cheap. On the other, the market is telling us Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] and [[M]] are going out of business. If that happened, no doubt, the regulators would suspend trading and keep this market closed, until everything got ironed out.
There’s a run on the banks right now and the gov’t has run out of bullets. If the credit agencies downgrade Citi, they are done. If they go under, how can the gov’t save them? They are too fucking big.
Let me tell you, if there is a such thing as The PPT, or some secret agency who manipulates stocks higher, those fuckers need to step in now—right here— and get long egregious amounts of S&P contracts.
We’re on that slippery slope right now. My conundrum is: do I add to my fledgling long positions now or wait until there is blood flooding out of the NYSE?
By the end of trading, I will reduce my hedges to just 5% short, and keep a little [[SDS]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] . Furthermore, I will start to nibble, like a small rat inside a coffee can made from sweet corn, on [[ROM]] and [[UYM]] .
Look you, I can easily try to cherry pick an individual stock and try to get lucky and shit; but that’s stupid. Right now, we are convoy trading, up and down. The best way to make money in this tape is through the upside and downside etf’s, providing one has Godly market timing, such as myself.
Eventually, stock picking skills will be needed. We’re just not there yet.
UPDATE: I changed my mind. I’m not buying until we break 8k.
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as if commanding the market, the Fly calls on the PPT
nice
The foot bone con-nected to the (pause) leg-bone,
The leg bone connected to the (‘) knee bone,
The knee bone connected to the (‘) thigh bone,
The thigh bone connected to the (‘) back bone,
The back bone connected to the (‘) neck bone
The neck bone connected to the (‘) head bone
Oh hear the word of the Lord!
DRYS hurtin’ today
Even I wouldn’t mind seeing the PPT step in, but I just don’t think they have the capital to step in with the futures. Certainly not against this tide of liquidations, as long as it may last.
On the other hand, when this thing does turn, I want to load up on TBT.
Bennet Sedacca
12:21:53 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
A Sea of Red
When I look at my screen, the biggest problem I have is that I am not confident with what anything on my screen is going to earn. There are just so many problem children — Bank of America (BAC), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Hartford Financial (HIG), IYR, Met Life (MET), Morgan Stanley (MS), etc. — I don’t know where to stop worrying first.
There are simply too many problem children to be bailed out.
Granted, some companies are becoming values in the true sense of the word, but remember that markets overshoot in both directions.
Another issue is that spreads won’t budge, in fat if anything, spreads continue to blow out. Junk now is gaining on plus 2000 to Treasuries. CMBS continues to get destroyed.
And remember, a close below 840 cash triggers the next leg, Wave of 5.
The secret is out. Stocks are a sham. They never did represent ownership shares in real companies. We are all trading certificate numbers with one another while the business media hires thousands of writers to generate scripted “news” stories.
Shipping? Going to zero. Automobile manufacture? Going to zero. Lending? Going to zero. Plastic Shoes, Inc.? Going to zero. This couldn’t happen if there were real companies behind the shares.
I’m going to request paper certificates for everything, so that when I am wandering the streets in my dotage, I can hold the grubby certificates up in front of passersby and gain an extra smidgen of sympathy and charity.
Die UUP! Dieeeeee!!
(Splash! Splash!)
(Guuuulp!)
Gurgle.
_______
Nice rant Ott.
Asshats duking it out on CNBC
I see the end of the world coming, just as clear as Paulson’s TARP plan is understandable. We’re fucked.
Dennis Kneale gets torn new bung-hole by man on the street reporter.
Deservedly so.
The car CEO’s are pathetic, especially that Ford guy.
Dennis Kneale is an asshat. He has no business being on TV. He never has anything of value to add to the stupid conversations on CNBC.
The idiot was trumpeting the bailout of wall street, but now won’t give the auto industry anything. I say fire that idiot, and bring Krudlow on in his place.
fuck me, i’m dead
fly, glad to hear you still think this trading range will hold. Too bad you’re wrong.
the end
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx07A8dZAPU
I think i will wait for the blood to pour out of the doors…
I dont know much about any CDS plays and I am interested if there are any short CDS ETF’s out there ? Any one educated on it ?
Fuck you neg heads…go buy a couple of cows,sell the milk and mate them to several multiples. Capitalism is built into nature…odd, no?
Fuck it. I’m not buying until we get a 7 handle.
BAC: $13.43/sh…and they are paying how much for The Thundering Turd ‘Crown Jewel’?
For all practical purposes, C has already failed. It should now be allowed to do so formally and file Ch. 11 with GM, F and Mopar.
Jakegint: Yes, Mopar. There’s no such thing as Chrysler. It doesn’t even have any stockholders to save. If the bailout passes, the money will go directly to the hardworking men and women of something called Cerberus Capital Management, L.P.
Fly, agree on short ETFs. Using individual stock scalping LONG to supplement has worked for me for 2 months. Getting more and more difficult as GS, for example, disconnects from everything and BAC disconnects from MER at times.
Sold AMAT for $193 S/T gain.
She’s getting ready to blow.
Or in CAP’s case he’s getting ready to blow.
Fuck it all…
Everything else aside…Citibank at seven and change while GM floats just pennies above oblivion…it’s hard to believe.
And I’m tiring of the ‘accepted wisdom’ that suggests this is good, that it’s natural, that we needed this shakeout.
Shakeout? Yeah, thanks for that. We need millions out of work, that’s good for all of us.
I admire the folks who are able to successfully trade this market – I look at the charts and flashback to childhood night terrors, when there really were monsters under the bed.
Which reminds me, time for a nap.
needless to say DevilDog wins again!
I dumped my upside rentals & completely hedged out
830 faild the third test of the day. Should be a pretty clean ride down to the intraday low of 811.
If 811 doesn’t hold, god help us.
http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/19/let_them_die.htm
Tim the enemy doing a Fly mind meld.
Let Them Die
I’m sickened that the so-called Big Three automakers are whoring their way to Washington D.C., hats in hand, seeking a $25 billion bailout. I’ve had zero respect for the U.S. auto industry my entire life. It represents the worst of American business:
* Overpaid, incompetent executives
* Bloated, corrupt unions
* Fat, dim-witted, self-entitled laborers
* Crappy products (I’ve never bought an American car in my life)
* Welfare-state mindset
Given that the U.S. seems hell-bent on a course of financial self-destruction, the logical next step is for them to give in and hand Detroit what it wants. The smart thing, and the right thing, is to let Free Enterprise (remember that? anyone?) take its course and let these organizations die. That’s how business is supposed to work.
America makes great software. Great computers. Great inventions. Great pralines. Great hamburgers. But the city that gave you the Pinto (or the Aztek, for that matter) doesn’t deserve to be propped up.
Looks like paulson’s PPT bought about $840M SPY @ 1PM EST and now he’s getting fucked up the ass. Hopefully, when he goes to prison he’ll get plenty more of that.
Where are we going, 800? 700? even 600? who cares, we came from fucking 1570!! Now is not the time to hedged in and get scared.
my dream where i woke up and the market was at 7200 and I was asking “how did we get here so fast” is looking more and more true by the minute.
We’re all getting nice big steaming piles of turd under our Christmas trees. If we’re lucky there might be some corn in it.
I made and lost 2k three times today!
Thank you, Jesus! My second best day this week!
As of Oct 31, BAC had 80% of its 3 mo daily volume short, which C had about 100% of its 3 mo daily volume short. I know that the typical ratio is shares shorted/float that people look at, but is it even worth it to look at shares shorted/daily volume?
Cubs, I’m a trader. I can unhedge in a second.
Must keep losses to a minimum unlike the fucking hedge fund that a couple members of my family are in. They did great for many many years but since last October, they’re down over 50%. Took their eye off the ball, to put it mildly. And left it off the ball.
That’s it I’ve capitulated. Sold everything down to 25%. Sold my beloved U.to on which i made some really good cash.
fly, I’d wait for a 6 handle.
(Thanks, Fly, for this place that’s helped keep me at least somewhat sane.)
http://www.fatznew.com/Newsroom/mailedD7.jpg
There’s a helicopter… it’s flying something behind it and I can’t quite make it out… It’s a large banner and it says H A P P Y… T H A N K S… GIVING!… from T… A… R… P!
What a sight, ladies and gentlemen, what a sight. Bernanke’s ‘copter seems to circling the parking area now. I guess it’s looking for a place to land. No! Something just came out of the back of the helicopter. It’s a dark object, perhaps a skydiver pummeting to earth from only two thousand points in the air… There’s a third… No parachutes yet… They can’t be skydivers. I can’t tell just yet what they are but…
Oh my God! They’re sacks of dollars! Oh no! Johnny, can you get this? Oh, they’re crashing to the earth right in front of our eyes! One just went through the windshield of a parked GM car! This is terrible! Everyone’s running around pushing each other. Oh my goodness! Oh the humanity! People are running about. The bailout funds are hitting the ground like sacks of wet cement!
Folks, I don’t know how much longer… The crowd is running for their lives. I think I’m going to step inside. I can’t stand here and watch this anymore… No, I can’t go in there. Automakers and bankers are searching for their lobbyists, and oh, not since the Crash of ’29 has there been anything like this. I don’t know how much longer I can hold my position here, Johnny. The crowd…
Dog
You’re right
I’ll never disagree with you again.
It’s Peanut Butter Jelly Time… Back to the cave.
Hey Les, +10 Good Job! Now really back to the cave.
kamikaze trader says “fuck it! I’m outta here …”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/11/18/1226770397986.html
(Anytime, Yogi. Wonder what the phone cops, er, margin clerks are going to do today. Damn, those margin cops play hardball.)
Les? Les? Les, are you there?
*silence*
Les isn’t there.
Thanks for that on-the-spot report, Les. For those of you who’ve just tuned in, Citigroup Center has just been bombed with live turkeys. Film at 11. Stock at $7.11.
2pm minutes from FOMC come out.
maybe a catalyst
What’s fucking extraordinary is watching the market cap of these banks fly around $1 billion or two in a hour of trading.
Still short HIT from 63 until 30 handle (preferably 33).
New long ‘MERican’ position: 1.5K NSANY @ 6.83. Probably going to 6.5 (stop) but felt inspired by Ghosn’s statement today that he expects “zero” profits in the second half of the current fiscal year.
Bennet Sedacca
01:40:33 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Muni Closed End Funds Getting Attractive
I have clearly not been an advocate of any kind of credit risk for years, including the municipal space.
Given the issues with the insurers and housing, my firm stayed away. But yields are now getting rather attractive, particularly with tax rates likely to climb next year.
Since I am not comfortable with some of the individual credits as there isn’t a lot of data on the credits, I play via closed end funds instead.
I am being very careful about which funds I choose in terms of credit risk, duration, liquidity, etc.
But 8% at 20% discounts to NAV is hard to pass up, particularly with many funds actually raising dividends as their cost of borrowing falls.
As I mentioned in my piece the other day, these are much more compelling to me rather than equities with an unknowable ‘E’ in the P/E.
enough of the negativity. Drys is trading under $6 and has plenty of room to run on the upside. join me in taking advantage of a great company that has been beaten and left for dead. it will see 7 dollars by the end of the week. watch and learn
Fuck it. Bring out the Amero already.
Bill Gross and Donald Trump must have the same hair dresser.
WTF is holding this whooah up?
_____
This is the Raptor speaking:
820 in SPX is just about the biggest tech-lvl ever.
I’m 100% in cash – PnL YTD +41%
Have a pleaseant evening.
The Plunge Protection Team was roasted out in the S&P 900 range. They are out of ammo and have no more bullets left to fire. The bears are closing in like the evil Empire storming through that shitty rebel base on planet Hoth. Capitalism is over.
I like how they closed the exchange for a “few minutes” after that poor bastard shot himself.
bought some C here. if it goes bust, I’m treating as a badly priced option. What the fuck.
The only thing worse than a slow (or fast for that matter) bleed lower would be to bounce around these levels for the next 20 years
Contractor-say what?
Can you imagine?
Trading range SP500 870-820 until 2029 or so.
I’d move to a romanian outhouse and eat bushels of baby food.
Todd Harrison
01:58:53 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Crash Test Dummies!
The Hump Day cometh and with it, fresh pain for the Matador Crowd as we edge through yet another red mess. Scanning the landscape, there’s precious few reasons to put capital to work. Breadth is 10:1 negative, the banks are trading at levels last seen twelve years ago, beta is being disassembled, credit remains an unmitigated mess and it looks like the auto industry will be hung out to dry.
What to do? Road Trip? Orange Whip? Toga Party? Nah, that would be too easy.
The only thing to do is to do what we do, and that’s assimilate the landscape, manage risk, respect the process and live to fight another day. Easier said that done, particularly when your (my) trading tries are under water, but it is what it is and we’ll do what we must.
I’ve kept powder dry for the better part of the year with a few notable exceptions (shared in real-time on the Buzz). While I’m being very careful not to rationalize risk–that’s the death knell–I continue to lean long into this downdraft.
Someone once said that good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss. I’ll likely toss some maidens into the volcano at a point to respect the process but I’m trading around my upside risk as we edge ahead. Size wise, I’m not going nuts as I wanna keep ammo available should we see the whites of their eyes.
Sometimes right, sometimes wrong but always honest. This, you know.
Chin up buttercup, this too shall pass.
ott good points… since a stock price is dictated when a willing buyer’s demands meet the demands of a willing seller, I think I’m going to start putting alimit orders for billions of shares @ .000000000000000000001.
Since there’s not much demand, I’ll set it myself, and who knows, maybe someone puts in a huge market order in, andthe markets can plummet, find a bottom and we can start moving again. If not, my money will be no different then if I had kept it on the side. FXI for .00000000000000001 anyone?
granted, the SEC would probably reset the order, but it would be really fun.
Bull–
re: the link juice posted above.
Will Citi paint a 6 handle before the end of the hour?
if everyone put in orders like this to the point where there was a greater demand for shares than there was market cap, would this mean a company would be forced to issue more shares and dilute them?
Thanks.
Anyone hear about folks outside the exchanges with signs saying “JUMP!”?
The market will circle jerk all the way to 8k, then fall into an idle manhole.
OTT, let’s boycott stocks! Refuse to buy any stock above $1. Billions of shares ordered at .00000001 for everyone!
lol…
Now, I wonder what the government would do if everyone did a similar boycott On taxes. Call me patriotic, but I don’t believe in taxes. I am just not brave enough to face the result of not paying them like our forefathers, who recognized the government’s egregious mismanagement of money.
Boston Tea Party WAHOOO!!!
only this time it’s on stocks.
Sounds like Obama at least has a plan to stimulate. Somebody wake up Bush.
Question – Frost Bank out of Texas, CFR, is a 3 billion bank who’s stock is down 1% ytd…So the banking system seizes up everywhere but places like El Paso and Lukenbach…I DON’T BUY THAT!!!
I’m starting a street gang again. Who’s in?
I need West, Midwest, Northwest and South East gang leaders
I love how the Big 3 blew their ad budget for the year on Nascar and shit, so their only recourse is to go on YouTube and beg the public for salvation.
Anon:
Everyone believes CFR is safe, due to oil loans. However, with oil dying here, I’d be interested in short CFR here.
Good reminder.
DRYS is making CBL look like a winner!
Forgot to say I am buying a little KRE (regional bank etf) here. Rates to 0 mean big $$ on the spread to the banks.
Bush is too busy playing Battleship with Cheney.
Those fuckers are laughing this mess out.
Break out the golden bear
Rates to zero mean money markets are fucked. It could mean disaster to some banks.
I’m in. I’ll bring the band to our gangland parties.
PS – I stole some music today, gangster style. All of this poverty is making me commit crimes and shit.
“The Fly Says:
I’m starting a street gang again. Who’s in?
I need West, Midwest, Northwest and South East gang leaders”
I’m so in. I’ll rep the SE region. I’m in DC–very strategic.
Nice Boomer.
Poverty always brings out the best or worst in people.
I will be in the SE gang and we will throw oranges at the bankers downtown.
Our bikes will have bicycle cards in the spokes to show how cool we are.
Can’t bring the golden bear out. He’s busy playing Battleship with Bush and Cheney.
Ill be in the New Jersey gang.
Ill bring some of Pork Roll, or scrapple, depending where youre from in jersey
The Fly, you have no need for street gangs. Remember why we sent you to Earth. I thought we discussed this last night with Gort.
Nice. I will send out leather jackets to everyone too, like Grease.
Need a name for the gang. Something that will scare our competition in Compton.
Since when is DC the SE?
I’ll run Miami to Richmond for ya Fly. Lock and load bitches.
The Capitulators?
The MurderHoles?
The Orphans.
Touchdown on 8k, here we come.
The Goatherders
Name proposal-
Hank Paulson Gang Bangers
“See what you get, Warriors? See what you get when you mess with the Orphans!”
“See what you get, Warriors? See what you get when you mess with the Goatherders!”
As fly would say stocks are CHEAP and they can’t get CHEAPER in the World’s strongest economy. HUGE 3000 point DOW RALLY starting now to be further sparked before the open with 600K new unemployment claims. Come on boys belly up and BUY, BUY, BUY!!! BOOYAH!
FOX & CNBC NEWS ALERT: DEVILDOG predicts 3000 point DOW rally this afternoon. j, GENERATIONAL BOttom, eye know stuff and dennis kneale all concur.
here is where i increase my short position, only to see the market rally to erase all my short/hedge gains.
mabye
DEVILDOG:
I will have to put you back into your cage soon. Just a little FYI.
This, as you know, is a GENERATIONAL bottom. However, THE CRASH is coming, tomorrow or NEXT WEEK!!!
Cool. Leather jackets. I’ll definitely take a bullet for The Fly–lots of bullets. Just not in the skull. I’m pretty sure that’s the only place I can’t get shot, just judging from zombie movies.
The Fly is God.
Forgot…Art Hogan also agrees.
Can’t short here. Something odd is about to happen.
i think i just left a small hershey kiss in my underpants. they are battling at 820-can’t see how it holds.
look at EBS again people.
intestinal fortitude
hehehe, a regular fuckin’ laugh-a-thon around here.
Suggested Gang name: Margin’d Angels
Motto: Shorting Hell down to zero
Treasuries are soaring. What a fucking bubble.
TBT looks nice.
The Detroit gang is a behemoth, but is poorly run and had to deal with unionizing among its drivers. Odd, no?
Something odd?
Poor ol BEAV
I would like to campaign for Consigliere, if I get a 1968 GTO 442 to drive around in.
Top 11 ranked stocks, Technical, PPT:
No. Ticker Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 CHRK 4.35 1.95 3.34 14.78% 7.4%
2 WINN 4.25 4.4 4.32 0% 2.86%
3 QCOR 4.25 3.9 4.11 0% 26.07%
4 CWT 4.15 4.4 4.26 0% 12.4%
5 ADY 4.1 2.65 3.49 0% 12.58%
6 SRCL 3.9 3.3 3.65 0% 0.83%
7 LHCG 3.9 4.15 4 -3.61% 12.04%
8 PSD 3.9 3.2 3.6 -4% 47.54%
9 VRY 3.8 2.6 3.29 0% 31.08%
10 USQ 3.75 2.6 3.27 21.56% 10.85%
11 CEPH 3.7 3.05 3.43 0% 1.78%
The Plutonium Petey Thugs
The Tropicanas
How cool would it be if Meredith Whitney upgraded C and BAC tonight?
BTW: Most spacs have their money locked up in treasuries. So, in other words, they are making money.
Rally
The Merlins!
I would like to be the Head Midwest Gansta, but I am waxing my skis and fleeing to Canada.
Poof! Your bullshit gang turf is gone!
-The Merlins
the gang can ride Segue scooters and toss back lattes when they’re on the prowl
Buying a little more KRE.
Keep an eye out for an odd rally, which may stifle DD forever.
AAPL rady to break out of descending wedge?
Nice touch anon.
However, being the leader, I will ride in a time machine segue scooter.
Come on. just flush this thing already and let’s get going. Phucking PPT b*llsh!t.
oh come on, cut the shit!
Howard’s twittering about BIDU, freefall?
I am getting angry
Discipline … wait until the final hour.
That was the tide going out just before tsunami.
Don’t pick up the fish.
Karl, Donny, you guys are right, thanks man
What a fuckhouse. This is exactly why I’m 100% cash right now.
I have an old Bloomberg keyboard i am using as a weapon. Keys go everywhere when you smack a bear with it.
don’t pay that boy any mind. he never did understand that coincidence is not correlation.
C = 6 handle!
Yes it did!
C @ new lows
Just bought two dozen stripped AR-15 lower receivers @ $125 each.
Pandit the Bandit, off to hunt bears!
oooh! now what ever that was was soft and steamy
Ha…I swear Bartiromo caught herself halfway into saying Shittygroup.
We would like sniper6 in the SE section of the gang.
He can ride shotgun and protect us from the rival LEH gang.
And C was really trying to buy WB … getta grip
ABK to 0, what happens when they get down graded again, more M 2 M downward?????
The Hulk – LMAO!! Needed that
Looks like YHOO is blowing up too. Just noticed that
Is this what armageddon looks like?
Thanks TC, but you don’t need any protection from those eunochs. 3 or 4 spirited old ladies might spank the whole lot of ’em
New post up.
*