You election lovers thought we’d have a rally today, no?
“The Fly” is simply bowling on you cowards, with spiked balls covered in spicy mustard.
Check this out:
As unbelievable as it may seem, despite today’s liberal beatdown of the indices, I was down 0.45%. I enjoyed egregious wins in [[EEV]] , [[REW]] , [[SDS]] , [[FXP]] , [[DUG]] and even short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] —despite its midday stubborness.
Let me just say, there is NO FUCKING WAY Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]] sells out to BP plc (ADR) [[BP]] , following Aubrey’s margin call sell out. No way.
Sell it 100 ways to the graveyard.
For the day, I bulked up large on the inverses. What can I say, I am in a very, very macabre sort of mood.
To be honest, as opposed to bald faced lying to you, I am uncomfortable holding BE Aerospace, Inc. [[BEAV]] and American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] . Nonetheless, crazy shit is known to happen in this market. Do not be shocked to see the market rally tomorrow, effectively poleaxing you goat fuckers into a very bad imbecilic situation.
Top pick: My brain
UPDATE: At the bell, I actually closed up 0.07%.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Yep. More deception ahead. This market sell off is on very low volume. We test 9000 and 940 and head back up. Time to buy back my SKF SRS FXP EEV puts for egregious 40-50% gains overnight.
You, me and DevilDog will dance on their graves.
Fly, any advice at scaling into positions? I really suck at it.
“…with spiked balls covered in spicy mustard…”
Well played, Sir.
A lucky day for me I lost my job as pro trader but kept my emotions and stayed out of this bullshit in 100%cash. I hate to hedge it drives me nuts. Now that I am in cash I can fuck up with a clear head.
Yogi:
How much are you rolling with?
California gave CLNE the homoHammer today
I stomped all of you!
Thank you Mr O
Maybe low volume but the big rallies were void of any incredible volume. I will stay with my thesis and remain short the SPY and GS.
Big Bamboo got its first win in 20 tries?
Please fill us in.
Fly, all of my positions were disclosed, hours before, on my blog. Maybe you should venture out of your castle sometime to see what us serfs are up to.
Fly, Basically small peanuts, but the accounts have gotten bigger so I know I shouldn’t be taking the risk of taking on (or getting out of) a position all at once. When I see my signal, I want to pull the trigger and take down a full position rather than splitting it up. I guess that’s the best description of what I’m doing wrong. Should I break up the positions 3 ways at first? 5 ways?, etc.
thank you lord O for the transfer of wealth into my account today.
Nice job Woody.
Dammit and i though i was bottom fishing in Indonesian Market
I made a fractal fly out of toothpicks.
Sorry Wood, I NEVER surf the net, not even my own site.
Yogi:
If you had 100k to invest and wanted to take a position, try to never have it consist of more than 20% of your portfolio.
Moreover, when buying, do it in stages. If you would just throw out the charts, which gives you false hope, you would realize that you will buy too high almost everytime.
Therefore, knowing you will buy too high, you will begin to trade more methodically.
Out of 100k, 20k goes into BEAV, for example.
Out of 20k, I will buy 5k increments over a week or ever .50 down.
Just know, not every position should be 20%. Most should be around 5%.
Then, you have to consider hedging versus diversification and cash management.
In other words, this shit takes years to perfect. I’d tell you to hire a broker, but 99% of them blow goat nuts.
Thunderpup, I found it:
http://www.photoshoptalent.com/images/contests/toothpick%20art/fullsize/toothpick%20art_477556fb7f078.jpg
Love this shit Fly. Keep it up.
Well Fly, I see you listened to my warning about 11/5 – 11/10. Actually, we’ll be going down through at least the 15th now. Been quietly shorting bullshit retail and homebuilders and accumulating more SDP in the $70s like I said I would. Actually, picked up a size-able SDP holding for my DAD as I didn’t see any reason he shouldn’t bank some coin on the SHORT side until the intermediate capitulation low shows up. I guess BEAV may bounce again when that happens, however, you should have banked profits in the $14s and bought again at the lows. You know you can’t hold the BEAV long term as BA’ backlog is going to be largely cancelled by China due to the global recession/depression. Anyway, I’m still fully positioned SHORT and will just sit and count my money thru the 15th. Fuck all bulltards and the stupid cow herd that follows them. Loved it when Obama put the greasy wall street scumbags on notice in his landslide victory speech last night. Gee, I think someone I know called that and today’s sell-off too…the DEVILDOG!!!
FLy,
Any thoughts on SRS and SKF to play the sell off? or do you have enough inverse ETFs as it is?
The market tanked because Obama is not “Marxist” enough, but I guess he was still too “Marxist” for poor Crichton.
Old Beardy up 1.6% on classic Fly plays (super commie hedges) and a doubling down of the old Marx/Gint short emerging markets/long gold play – code name: freshly eucharized.
Will someone please recognize the gentle men and women of Yamana?
Thanks you.
i like eev, fxp more
dd you are a cock sucker.
Fly good call on DUG yesterday, that and QID and CHK buoyed me today. I guess the market did not like the Labamba vote?
MOS screwed the pooch into the close…u-g-l-y
How Ugly??
She was so ugly, that when we went on a date, I had to set her in the corner and feed her with a slingshot!!
We are headed for market Armageddon.
Fly, Thanks. That helps. For the most part, I’m ok with the position sizing and risk management, although I’d like to reduce my drawdown. I’m up over 40% for the year, so I shouldn’t complain, but I want to keep working on the game.
Damn Fly goin’ all Grey Poupon and shit on us.
Yogi, what Fly says is good advice, but that is only one way to do it. Fly’s method works well if you have a calculator brain, balls of steel, and a penchant for drawdowns.
If you are none of the above, you might consider a percent-risk formula for positions.
Thanks BHH!
Don’t listen to Wood.
He is a Southern liar.
And, he voted for McCain.
you little prick get back in yer room
You election lovers thought we’d have a rally today, no?
um, no. obama will give wall street another three trillion or so, suspend all accounting rulz, abolish the SEC, encourage lying derivatives trades and still it won’t be enough because everyone knows that the punks on wall street have nothing of any value to sell.
Nice call Master Fly. If China goes down tonight and we gap up in the morning, how does that effect FXP,EEV?
Jake – I think CBL got washed out with GGP.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GGP
Already some shares have traded @ 9.22.
Anyway, I took a big position for fun…er… surprise buttsecks.
CSCO fag getting the homohammer along with the Qs and SPYs in AH. Should be a fun day tomorrow along with unemployment claims over 500K. booyah!!!
lol @ the market.
CSCO just gave the all clear to bring things back to the oct lows.
John Chambers is taking a runny shit on CSCO shareholders in the conference call. Projected revenue decline of 5% to 10% next quarter. Ouch.
The other bad sign was the banks. They’ve been performing well since July, but got dumped massively today. If the dumpage wasn’t to make room for the new WFC stock hitting the market tonight, the market is going back to the lows shortly.
Zen:
It’s beautiful, isn’t it?
From OEW regarding current wave status and tomorrows trading range: Courtesy of S2
“My 15min indicators suggest there COULD be more downside for this wave that closed the day and my projection based on wave proportions was as low as 942 (could go even lower). A wave 2 of C is likely coming but I just don’t know if it will be with an opening gap up or possibly after another 5-10 more points down. An immediate wave 2 up in the morning should reach 964-971 while a drop to 940ish and then a pop should reach 959-969. Above 977 is likely bullish and should be evaluated for a buy on the next dip.”
This one’s for Woody and A Dawg:
We STOMPED YOU OUT!!
______
OEW Summary for today:
“Support for the SPX drops down to 935 and then 912, with resistance at 961 and then 990. Short term momentum was very oversold at the close. Tomorrow the Weekly jobless claims, Productivity and Unit labor costs, all at 8:30. Also, tomorrow evening FED governor Warsh gives a speech in NY. The pullback we were expecting arrived, with likely support at the 935 pivot. Assuming this level holds, the rally should resume after that.”
Anyway, I took a big position for fun…er… surprise buttsecks.
The buttsecks is easier with the “KY” of a nice phat 20% dividend yield.
Yum!
______
Boom, no shit, you can go down and meet Charles and John (Foy) any day. They are that approachable.
Just dont’ tell John you voted for Obama.
_________
Some hedging by S2:
“Given Tony’s 935 pivot and C=A at 937, I’d consider C being over if it drops hard tomorrow to 935ish +/- with only minor pullbacks. However, my 15min indicators rarely switch alignment in 1 day and C would not be very time-proportional or clean as compared to A. Plus, NYMO drops usually last more than 1 day (not always but I’m just building the evidence), sentiment is slightly over-bullish today and the non-farm payrolls on Friday morning should leave traders tentative. In addition, if SPX bounces around a little tomorrow morning without surpassing 977 versus making a straight drop to 930ish, it suggests the close today was merely trying to complete 1 of C, not C. Plus, viewing it as 1 of C would allow a fairly common C=A*1.62 ending perfectly at Tony’s pivot (912) and the .618 retrace of 845–>1008 (907). All these things to me favor down action into at least the afternoon tomorrow and possibly into Friday. Maybe Friday payrolls cause 5 of C to complete or wave 1/2 of the bounce or maybe it’s so bad, it pushes SPX below 907 and indicates an impulse down. We’ll see, but the evidence suggests down action for most of tomorrow. Above 977 means time to re-evaluate and possibly buy dips.”
Written by Abraham Lincoln:
You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot help the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by encouraging class hatred. You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn. You cannot build character and courage by taking away man’s initiative and independence. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should be doing for themselves.
thanks for the summaries, emp 8. good stuff.
We are going down big time tomorrow unless ECB cuts like 100 basis points…
Was listening to CISCO conference…”Most 2nd difficult time in my career as far as guidance..”
Is it just me, or John Chambers sounds like a big faggot?
The most depressing revelation today :
Posted under:
Obama Really is the Messiah
by The Fly on November 4th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
DPeezy Says:
Oh my, what a depressing bunch of old men up in heah tonight.
Time to go back out with the homies and celebrate the grand victory.
At least all you Utah-sponsored conservative types can rejoice in passing Prop 8 tonight. What a sad day for California that is.
DPeezy is a HOMO???
MDR = MURDER = VICTORY!
After Hours: 12.75 -2.81 (-18.06%)
“Anonymous”…
…if only Lincoln had declined on the Ford Theatre performance…but…
Anonymous Lincoln quoter. Wise words, but not uttered by Lincoln. Rather, they were written by a pamphleteer in 1915 who also included Lincoln quotes in his advisories, and hence, the mixup. No mistake, they are still a fine advisory, however.
Ten Cannots Not Uttered by Lincoln.
_____
God I need to wake up from this dream when The FLY, Devildog, and Mr. EB are on the same side of the market. Insane I say.
Ah, fittingly, Alf is back from refrigerator repair and rehab to utter banalities for us.
Welcome, Alf! We come in peace!
__
“Glad prop 8 passed”= for your information everyone on this blog is a homo except DD and Fly. The queen of homos is Ms. Jake Gint, faggot supreme. You are probably lesbo/freaky no? P.S. This is a financial site so shut the fuck up.
Come Get With It
“banalities” ???
Man that’s rich coming from your dumbass !
You seem not to have a life…post here 100 times a day…and 99% of the drivel you utter is replete with banalities !
What a clown you are !
Karen Tso looks quite stunning tonight, as always.
I picture alf huddled around a radio in a forgotten corner of the world.
It’s true. I am a pitcher to the Third World Canuckistanian’s catcher.
But I always wear a double condom, as MRSA is out of control up there.
_________
Alf used “replete.” (!)
And he looked up “banalities.” (!!)
I feel my work with him is near completion.
________
Do the titwillows always invade at this time?
How the fuck about that Obama Rally? That socialist painted one of my accounts ultra-green today. In and out of DUG twice for nice gains.
Are you people ready for some new gawd damned lows in the S&P 500? Yeap, buckle up, and get prepared … that’s where we’re headed. Fuckery Row.
I also used “dumbass”…why don’t you go look THAT up !
News “Alf” can use.
_________
Thunder — lol.
______
there is no cure for rabies. sucks
Nice going Donny.
A mile? She jogged a mile with a rabid fox on her arm???
News “of interest” to the Third World Canuckistanian Catcher.
_____
Weekly — I thought there was a particularly painful inoculation technique? (I understand it takes some time to incubate, so you can knock it out early with anti-virals).
So she’s not dead, just not very comfortable for the next two months.
_______
don’t know about medical stuff, but when symptoms start showing and the virus strengthens, then you’re dead in a few days. I think it takes a few weeks for that to happen.
I’m sure you can catch it before symptoms show, but how does someone jog a mile with that thing with the fox’s face ripping into her arm?
Another not so surprising revelation:
canuck visionary Says:
“Glad prop 8 passed”= for your information everyone on this blog is a homo except DD and Fly. The queen of homos is Ms. Jake Gint, faggot supreme. You are probably lesbo/freaky no? P.S. This is a financial site so shut the fuck up.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
canuck visionary is a HOMO???
Believe me, it was hard as hell hanging on!
FXP and GLD
Embrace the liberal love Fly!
NEW YORK (CBS) ? Mayor Michael Bloomberg is going to cut the city work force by 3,000, but that’s just the beginning of the pain New Yorkers will feel as part of the fiscal crisis. A slew of new taxes are also on the agenda.
There will be 1,000 fewer cops, but the city will hire 200 more traffic agents to give out $60 million a year in new block-the-box tickets.
“The gravity of the budget situation requires us to propose both deep spending cuts and revenue increases,” Bloomberg said.
The spending cuts mean reducing the city work force. The revenue increases mean taxes — lots of taxes.
In the current fiscal year there’s the 7 percent property tax hike that starts in January — and the plan to renege on a promised $400 property tax rebate.
Let’s raise taxes on people that don’t have jobs.
Brilliant.
On the rabies news story, it indicated on the bottom of that page that Obama’s IQ was 147 … Fly like, no?
that’s a click ad…
One has 72 hours after being exposed to rabies to get the shots.
Rabies excites the adrenal glands, as well as the area of the brain responsible for aggression/anger.
Rabies disables the parts of the brain that govern fear, pain, and inhibition.
Reading the Letters to Editor section of the WSJ. Someone suggested that Wall Street execs get their bonuses in the form of foreclosed homes. Hehehehe. Funny shit.
“Here you go Mr. Fuld, 17 foreclosed Miami condos. We have them worth $2 million a piece on our books”
“Mr Thain here’s your bonus. 32 foreclosed Riverside county SFRs. We estimate their value at $900,000 each. “
This one’s for j and T MOE. An actual researched paper with evidence to back the claims.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2000_Oct_11/ai_65931682
The old adage that Republican presidents are good for business may be little more than a myth, according to research recently completed by finance professors Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov, of The Anderson School at UCLA.
A close examination by the two researchers of the stock market’s average performance during Republican and Democratic presidencies reveals that returns are much higher when a Democrat is in office.
The two researchers arrive at their findings by analyzing the returns an investor would receive from placing his or her money in the equity market rather than T-bills over the period from 1927 to 1998.
Under Democratic presidents, the average excess return of investments in the stock market over the three-month Treasury bill is about 11 percent. Under Republicans, it is less than two percent; a nine percent difference. Examination of the risk-free interest rate produces another noteworthy result: under Republicans, the real T-bill rate is, on average, higher than the rate under Democrats by more than three percent.
The difference is even more striking when Santa-Clara and Valkanov examine stock portfolios formed according to the companies’ market capitalization. Small cap stocks realize an average excess return of 18 percent during Democratic presidencies; while under Republican ones, the return was -3 percent. The difference in returns for large caps was approximately seven percent.
With hindsight, one can argue that those results are attributable to differences in the business cycle during Republican and Democratic presidencies, and a correlation between the business cycle and expected stock market returns. In fact, it is commonly accepted that the president’s policies have an effect on the economy that, in turn, impacts the stock market. To take into account potential differences in economic conditions, the two researchers control for a vast number of macroeconomic variables, such as an indicator of recessions, the slope of the yield curve and credit spreads of bonds, that help remove the effect of business cycle fluctuations. Their surprising results hold: returns under Democrats are still, on average, higher.
Fly, you think taxing out of work employees 15% will help that shitbag city you live in or should I say next to?
If you want you can move to Labamba country, we only have 10.5% city sales tax on all the oatmeal you can eat.
DEVILDOG…how predictable…the market shits it’s pants and you miraculously show up to announce that you have been quietly increasing your short position. Are you also willing to hazard a guess at the winner of the 2008 World Series?
The reality is your Dad just lifted the temporary ban he placed on your internet access.
Listened to Meredith Whitney on my bullshit Sirrius[sic]…she is cold and always ahead of the curve. Went into a meeting and came out I knew we would be down another 2%.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=920170651&play=1
UYG to 0…. Lame fucking ducks everywhere!!!!
i can’t believe that don luskin actually gets paid for anything even remotely related to the market or economics. i don’t think i’ve ever seen a greater fool.
I have to say fuck faces that today’s election protest was the worst fucking post election market day in fucking ONE HUNDRED AND TWELVE YEARS!!!! So I guess the market was happy with the choice, no?
Mr. Market, fuck you. I made my call known before I left. Go back and read it. Like I said I got tired of trying to educate idiots like you. I hope your dumb ass is LONG and stays that way for your fairy tale ending.
The market is a discounting device nony, are you as retarded as the typical Dem?
The market was down 40% this fall, with the prospect of a socialist redistributing what’s left of the economy.
Of course the market has got nowhere to go but up with such a discount behind it.
Why, I ask? Why must I tutor the innumerate?
Such is my lot. Such is my cross.
I shall continue to bear it.
________
meredith is awesome. in fact, she’s so awesome that i have to hate her. it’s an ayn rand thing.
No way around it, not trying to “Playa Hate” on you but you did disappear when the market had an Obama Orgasm. Now that Labamba shot his wad you have returned. Sorry dude but just be real about it, look fly admits when he so rarely fucks up.
The above post is by me to DEVILDOG, mistake on the name.
Ohhhh, I wish you hadn’t said that – “no where to go but up”. Bush is not a favorite of mine because he is one unlucky SOB – got whacked with 2 black swans – 9/11 and this freakin mortgage/credit crisis. However, Oblama will likely make everyone fondly remember Bush before he is done.
Not if he’s gone quick enough. He’ll be like Jimmah Carter, one and done.
__________
the market prints material red and the Dog’s back.
He obviously had a parachute in the thelma and Louise redo.
WFMI on fire AH
DEVILDOG…lets be clear…you do get credit for calling a pullback. Your problem today is you are trying to take credit for “quietly adding to your shorts” during this rally…thats akin to predicting the Phillies would win the 2008 World Series. The reality is more likely that between the immodium and the recent market pullback, you have finally stopped shitting your pants for 5 minutes.
Now, recognizing that your brain is hardwired to short (now levered 5000%…you will eventually be evicerated by me, Mr Market. So sorry.
Dog musta landed on his wifes 34D’s…I wonder how the viper fared?
I liquidated DD’s account at the top of the current rally. He was almost right.
@Glad prop 8 Passed:
I hate to brake it to you buddy, but I’m not a ‘homo’. But I do dress down in locker rooms with football players as we walk around in our towels and slap each other on the ass.
The saddest part about Prop 8 is not that gays can’t get ‘married’. It’s the further blurring of the separation of church & state.
As you know, ‘marriage’ is a religious institution. So says the Bible or whatever book you may read. And that’s fine. I’ve got no problems with that.
Unfortunately, marriage also exists as a legal right/entity. Denying that right to a certain segment of population is straight up discrimination.
I argue that marriage should not be part of any law. It shouldn’t have anything to do with the law/state side of things. However, as we stand right now, it does. Marriage brings certain benefits with it, benefits that are not equivalent to the ones gained from a ‘domestic partnership’ or even a ‘civil union’.
There are two ways to solve this problem…take marriage out of the lawbooks or give the same rights to every single person in this country, straight or gay.
Think about that. Or continue in your ignorant ways. Your choice.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I gotta go play some ‘ball’ with the homies and say ‘tsuper’ frequently and vociferously.
Asia is shitting its pants. Nikkei down 5.73% Hang Seng down almost 6%. I am looking forward to taking the money of everyone who believed in the bullshit Obama rally. Like Art the Old Fart Cashin said, “Obama was given the Presidency not a magic wand”
Job numbers will be terrible and we will test the lows, God Willing
Dog,
Still holding those AAPL puts?
I am hanging on to mine that fucker goes to 80
ATTENTION: if you do not agree with DPeezy…you are automatically ignorant. Please make a note of it.
anon, bush unlucky? are you kidding? – bush is an idiot. ” 2 black swans”, no, 2 unfinished wars. a slow motion bank highest. he bankrupted the treasury. bush will not be remembered fondly, he will be remembered for what he is: a coat tail riding, prep school flunky. fucker.
nony
Go blow Barney Frank you gay lover. I don’t care how the market performs under the different parties in the past.
This market and economy is fucked right now. Obviously in a down cycle
T MOE, yes still holding my AAPL SHORTS for the new 52 week low this month.
Shut it DevilDog,you hide on a rally.
T MOE you do Hank and j will do Ben! You have displayed your utter stupidity by saying “I don’t care how the market performs under different parties in the past.”
j read that fucking link I gave you. The paper adjusts for all those cyclical factors, discounting mechanism and all that crap.
Anyway the market is NOT a discounting mechanism. if it were, we would have seen a nice drop a year ago when subprime first came around. The recent drop is not at the prospect of Obama getting elected but shit hitting the fan after the Lehman bankruptcy.
Lose your pants in the market today eh? Another tank coming. 850 here we come.