There I was, acting all clever and shit, selling 90% of my National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] position yesterday, trying to avoid a dip. Lo and behold, here I am today, mind you, throwing the office silverware around, infuriated for missing out on today’s run. I knew the stock was cheap. But I wanted to be “clever.” BAM: 4 points in my face.
On the bright side, my BE Aerospace, Inc. [[BEAV]] position is running hard. It appears the elections have released the animal spirits of the markets.
Again, I want to sell into this rally and buy cheaper. I might even do a little short selling. Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] looks like a piece of shit, dying to trade down.
I still own a nice chunk of [[UYG]] . There she blows!
And, my starter position in American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] is doing exactly what “The Fly” wants it to do: go higher.
In short, life is incredibly grand, aside from the random forks and knives on my office floor. Missing out on National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] hurts; but it’s part of the game.
For a trade, I like all ag stocks, specifically CNH Global N.V. (ADR) [[CNH]] , American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] and Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] . I still own a meaningless amount of The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] . But that fucker is up way too much here.
UPDATE: I bought 8,000 [[AVD]] @$15.
UPDATE II: I bought 1,000 [[BEAV]] @ $13.99
UPDATE III: I sold 2,000 [[NOV]] @ $33.50
lol nice header.
Master Fly, you need to learn to be patient… 😀
What’s with all the Kudlow’s in here saying this rally is related to the election. Paaaalease.
Red Neck Racist Headline!
Fuck you. I am as patient as they come. I just need to stop trying to be so damn clever.
You have 8 too many K’s
I’d like to say I told you so, but I closed out my NOV options about an hour before you posted yesterday. The good news is that this stock is still headed to 40 so plenty of time to get in. And it’s going to dip after the election.
Turn Woodshedder’s banner into a ghetto.
Its easy to look back and say you shouldnt have sold. But this market is retarded and taking profits is never a bad thing. Good calls.
TSO gonna blow!
Fly suffers from premature evacuation.
I’m selling today & getting short term negative.
I think the main catalyst of the rally is not Obama but the fact that this fucking campaign is finally over and folks can now focus on more important stuff like day-to-day living.
Also, as bad as your missed NOV coin is, can we all take a pause for a moment of silence for our good friend DevilDog.
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!
Law of averages, this was your bad trade. Fly thank you for helping me kick this rallys ass. I have been selling tiny chunks of my NOV AUY MOS MU RIMM and HPQ as they melt up, and am looking to buy some iETFs when they touch their 50 day MAs.
Coal stocks rally pricing in a McCain upset. Hoohah!
Hilarity. That header is the entirety of the email that comes across my Crackberry during Giant games from my fellow fanatic college roommate.
________
Coal stocks rally, flipping off Obama–the ultimate act of defiance!
Steph, newsflash… coal stocks will Costanza even IF the Messiah takes it down.
Query to my fellow ‘Muricans — anyone seeing huge turnout in their “high dollar” districts like I did this morning?
Can all those people be Obama voters? (And yes, I do realize that they certainly can be, even as the majority of high dollar folks in my region are still GOP leaners).
__________
I think the coal stocks will do just fine regardless of who wins the election. After all we need that black lung shit. Environmentalist get thrown under the bus when oil goes up.
RIP CAP and DEVILDOG.
I am sure they are sucking their own cocks somewhere, right now.
ALL up nicely …. feel free to take profits …
No props for my HIG call … Jeesh!
Mutal Oblation Society Moment:
Since I gave you shit about NOV and you were a good sport about it….
At least you only “sold early.” I put an unsmall sum on RTI yesterday and I’m down 5% while the rest of the world parties on, Garth.
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Juice Says:
Fly suffers from premature evacuation.
Nice. Where’s the + karma button?
Fuckers, Devildog is 100% short, leveraged 40000% by now. He will ride this trend up like he rides rides his wife’s 34Ds.
Devildog is like the fed, he can print unlimited amount of money.
On other news, his Viper was reposessed. So Sorry.
(HK: 18.95 +9.79%) looks like a piece of shit
going to $24. fuck you.
Fly introduces himself to this year’s crop of baby brokers.
______
get on the AIZ train … next stop 32
The Fly Says:
RIP CAP and DEVILDOG.
I am sure they are sucking their own cocks somewhere, right now.
Fuck you I’m still here. I can’t complain. I was the cocksucker selling naked calls on SKF FXP SMN for $30-40 a piece. Who do you thinks laughing all the way to the bank ?
Cap has it been a romantic interlude for ya?
Emp8…AIZ chart looks lousy. What makes you think 32 is in the offing?
Don’t sweat it mate. You took your profits. Move on. The only way to truly succeed in this business is to tell yesterday to fuck off and get on with your business. Your business is the future. Sometimes the future is this afternoon, sometimes it is tomorrow, and sometimes it’s whenever the fuck you want it to be.
Onward and mutherfucking upwards bitches!
Insurance sector oversold … in better shape than banks … AIZ has built a base here and there’s no overhead resistamnce till 32-35 …
Wow, MOS has simply been on fire..sold the last of my long position at $ 41.95. Flipped over and got short 500 @ 42.00.
I might end up throwing some silverware myself over that trade. It has just had such a damn run-up as-of-late.
WTF is everyone so excited about?
Via PPT:
Top 10 ETF’s:
1 DTO 5 5 5 5 2 4.4
2 IEI 3 4 5 1 3 3.65
3 BBH 5 4 3 1 3 3.65
4 RKH 5 4 2 1 3 3.4
5 PJB 5 4 2 1 3 3.4
6 DRR 2 4 4 3 3 3.25
7 PRFQ 5 1 2 3 5 3.15
8 VBR 5 1 2 3 5 3.15
9 MGC 5 1 2 3 5 3.15
10 FAN 5 1 5 3 3.13
Top 10 stocks:
No. Ticker Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change
1 LHCG 4.55 4.15 4.37 0%
2 CWT 4.3 4.4 4.35 0%
3 EMS 4.55 4.05 4.32 3.1%
4 ENSG 4.25 4.35 4.3 0%
5 AFAM 4.55 4 4.3 1.65%
6 APSG 3.9 4.7 4.27 -2.95%
7 STRA 4.55 3.9 4.26 0%
8 AMSG 3.65 4.8 4.17 0%
9 ACET 3.7 4.7 4.16 0%
10 KAMN 3.7 4.7 4.16 0%
Top 10 sectors:
No. Industry Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change
1 Major Integrated Oil & Gas 2.761 4.589 3.59 20.198%
2 Home Health Care 3.25 3.864 3.527 -0.119%
3 Regional – Northeast Banks 3.203 3.772 3.461 3.235%
4 Food Wholesale 3.138 3.775 3.428 2.22%
5 Food – Major Diversified 2.925 3.95 3.387 7.505%
6 Cleaning Products 3.11 3.65 3.358 7.93%
7 Farm & Construction Machinery 2.512 4.369 3.353 5.154%
8 Steel & Iron 2.22 4.443 3.225 6.072%
9 Industrial Equipment & Components 2.378 4.25 3.223 4.429%
10 Consumer Services 2.579 4 3.22 2.057%
You’re welcome.
Today has Merlin written all over it.
Fly’s ball sac never lies!
Your headline sounds like my average trading day.
Everyone but the market seems to agree the financials are in deep shit for at least 12 to 24 months from here. But the financials march onward and upward…is this due entirely to the TARP? When will reality come back into the financial fray?
Oh my CNBC just called this an OBAMA BOUNCE!
There is no bias there at all
Best header ever.
yes Jake, in my rich county here in NJ there was a massive turnout…
unfortunaltly, they seem to fit in with the “apologetic for America” crowd as they drove away in their VW bugs and Jettas sporting peace bumber stickers
FTK – Flotek, looks good. Any comment? I’m in at 5
Cap, I said you cant play that script. Its old. I am short, but oh yeah I was long anyway now who’s laughing. I almost quoted your post, except I said it 2 days ago.
Good try, you suck. Admit it.
It’s scary how much this market looks like the ’02 market. In ’02, the S&P500 hit a low in July, rallied a few weeks, then hit a much lower, high volume (capitulatory) low in Oct ’02. It then rallied very strongly for a couple of months before making its final leg down to a near retest of the October low in March ’03.
Almost an identical pattern is being traced out this cycle. July low, then rallied for a few weeks before making a lower capitulatory low in Oct ’08. Just like in ’02, we’re now experiencing a very sharp rally. It seems only fitting the rally will last a few months and then make its final leg down and hit a higher low in March ’09.
Both the Oct. ’02 and Oct. ’08 bottoms came after huge, gigunda amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus had been in place for several months, bearish sentiment was at extreme levels, high yield credit spreads had blown out to record levels, VIX was off the chart, etc.
The similarities are spooky.
Yo Fly,
It’s ok…not everyone is as smart as me…We will break 1010, like Art Cashin said, and it will springboard from there. Afterwards is when I will make my timely escape and start shorting again.
Satan
No point looking back for patterns this is an entirely new game as it always is.
We need to read the tea leaves going forward and forward looks like a melt up.
These guys are throwing the kitchen sink at it. The kitchen sink is the largest monetary stimulus we have ever seen.
Take a deep breath, push down and enjoy it.
The penny will hit home once people start seeing the market go higher and examine the fact they are earning these HUGE returns in T bills at close to zero %. That’s when the shark feeding frenzy begins and it will be big. This market could retrace all the way back to 13,000 in no time.
Euro Yen over 130 now and Aussie has broken back over 70 cents after a 75 basis point rate cut today.
This market is heading much higher now as these two liquidity/risk appetite markers are galloping.
“Larry Says:
Cap, I said you cant play that script. Its old. I am short, but oh yeah I was long anyway now who’s laughing. I almost quoted your post, except I said it 2 days ago.
Good try, you suck. Admit it.”
But Larry, I posted those trades here last week ( or the week before) You can check the comment archive.
It’s scary how much this market looks like the ‘02 market. In ‘02, the S&P500 hit a low in July, rallied a few weeks, then hit a much lower, high volume (capitulatory) low in Oct ‘02. It then rallied very strongly for a couple of months before making its final leg down to a near retest of the October low in March ‘03.
I’ve highlighted the parts for review.
_____
There’s the “magic 300 bean.”
Saw FTK and WNR looks “spry” as well.
Karen TSO, anyone? (Besides me & Chivas?)
____________
NOV punked The FLY
VIX taking a beating. Support at 39.50 then again at 35. 35 was where it was right before the October meltdown. Could we be setting up for another jump in the VIX if it hits 40 to 35?
Pussy
Fly can i get your read on GS?
The stock is acting like something is about to blow up.
Has anyone seen DevilPup, I need to speak with him!
This is a historic day fuckers!
I came home from my morning walk and saw about 500 illegal alien landscapers lined up at the local polling place with yellow Acorn shirts on.
My wife tried to get thru to the authorities but they told her to go fuck a cactus.
Democracy at it’s finest!
Take your profit and run. Thats all folks. This is a shit stock rally. Mother market knows how to flush out money by making fuckers chase stocks they just sold. The odds are better to wait and buy an inverse ETF. Take a break and think about it.
I am starting to sell SKF SRS FXP EEV puts here. Premiums are nice and high. Even though I am short term bullish.
I’m with you Pro Trader … as soon as the market starts to rollover, I will take a large position in SDS.
ftk with size
long from the shithole of $3.66
lets not forget employment numbers on Thurs.
You guys must have missed the October memo.
For review, it was “Sell anything at any cost.”
Just got the November memo:
“Buy, or get left behind.”
That is all.
(Where is the Raptor?)
_______
Up Vol: 466 million
Dwn Vol: 59 million
fly,
how bout fcx here?
dollar down, gold up, copper up.
what do you think oh great one
Fly,
Thanks from the bottom of my Leviathan heart. I sold YGE at 7 and ACI 22.70
Give the PPT a big election hug. Time to go eat my shoes now.
If you look at the chart patterns of the DJIA,S+P500,RUSSELL3000,and the DJWIL5000 there patterns are all the same. This is still a slot machine market. The PPT is using there overseas accounts to hide the bullshit.
Markets don’t work like this in a free market.