What a monstrous close, after the idiots on the NYSE gave us false hope with that mid-day rally. There is no way to sugar coat it. However, just know, it’s only one day. After all, we have “Skinny Steve” going for us, with his soon to be announced Godly earnings report at Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] .
I should have sold when the market bounced this afternoon, but I didn’t. No point in crying or shotting myself in the face with a howitzer over it. I can only figure out ways to make money tomorrow, not 2 hours ago.
Assholes.
On the bright side, all of today’s buys were executed near the lows of the day. So, if Mother Market is kind to Plutonium Petey, he’ll be blowing out of these commodity fuckers, with egregious gains, by the end of the week.
There are some bright spots in the market, like General Electric Company [[GE]] and Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]] . But who gives a fuck about them.
Right now, it’s all about the state of Steve Jobs and how many soy burgers that fucker has been eating, over the last quarter. God willing, Steve will appear to be quite the plumper, helping stocks rip off the fucking whigs of asshole short sellers, first thing tomorrow morning.
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We didn’t give back the 400 points. We’re up the past two days. Thats the way I look at it.
Half the fockers here are more nervous than little old bitches.
What fuckery … I am parked all in cash.
pussy
guidance for Q1-09′ must be above 1.67. No biggy
speaking of the NYSE – NYX was strong today
steve is vegeterian
LoL
Yeap!
Rumor out that Steve will be sporting man boobs and a Joe Kernan gut.
VMW ripping to the upside.
Next up: Crapple.
Somebody convince Steve to skip the salad and have a rib eye, with creamed spinach and a baked potato w/sour cream, for the good of the company.
This is like being at the craps table, putting 100 bucks on a hard 8, and knowing the two 4s will be rolled before the 7.
AAPL will shit the bed, driving the P/E back to 37x.
YHOO shit a tree
you are on crack Topper
Looks like APPL is going to deliver an ass hammering. Shares halted.
AAPL 4Q 1.26
AAPL EPS $1.26 vs 1.11 $11.8B vs 8.05B est revenue.
Apple just reported one of the best quarters in its history, with a spectacular performance by the iPhone — we sold more phones than RIM,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO.
Guidance sucks balls bigtime
1Q guidance only $1.06 to $1.35. Street looking for $1.66.
For tomorrow, my mandate is to bring the DOW close to 8000
Guidance is going to crater the share price.
I’ve got my buy orders in at 62.
Could be their standard under promise over deliver…….Remember last Q the guidance was bad too.
$25B in the bank with no debt. I’d say AAPL is in good shape. Thanks Steve!
So apple going up or down?
Because RIMM is going down.
AAPL is fucked. Its over, down to 75. Fucking Steve gave shitty guidance tanking the Q’s. Off to eat a cow.
WHOOPS! Stupid bulltards. lmao again.
Rimm getting smashed with a homo hammer in ah’s.
AAPl numbers were disappointing. However, it may not collapse , due to valuation.
Downside is $67. If it gets there, load up.
with that guidance it’s going lower. trading is halted to 5:10 but it should sell off.
Should be an interesting conf call.
AAPL will open in the 70s tomorrow morning. who the fuck thought guidance would even meet stupid analyst estimates?
At what point does the sandbagging get old?
I believe we will find out shortly.
just got back from meeting. is aapl halted?
Listen people:
The numbers are irrelevant. It’s all about Steve’s weight. Should that fucker weigh 126lbs, this stock is going seaworthy.
AAPL weakness has been priced in.
Right now, the stock is trading less than 20x.
Q1 Guidance was 9-10 Bil. Street est. was 10.56 Bil.
What does Steve weigh now?
Pancreatic cancer is very virulent. For him to be still standing is an huge accomplishment.
I’m working on 2.5 weeks of possible malaria. It’s been totally fucked and no definitive answer as of yet.
Steve is s fucking hero.
VMW killed it!!!! Good god why did I not think of them.
Hey fly how are your $72 RIMM shares doing? asshat.
I don’t own RIMM you idiot.
YOu must have been locked in a basement for the last year.
I love the standard wall street bullshit “it’s priced in”. My ass.
fly, check your buys asshole. you bought it after earnings. lying sack of crap.
Going into this today AAPL was trading 14.29x free cash flow which seems reasonable. I’m a buyer if they get beat up tomorrow at the open.
You are an idiot. Those buys/sells are not always updated. I sold that shit like a million years ago.
Anyone reading knows I was 100% short going into the crash. I covered and went long 1 1/2 days too early.
Other than that, my trading has been Godly.
Devil, go venture off into traffic somewhere.
Fortune Magazine
Apple 2.0
Mac news from outside the reality distortion field
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
OCTOBER 20, 2008, 10:41 AM
Q4 earnings: A guide to Apple’s guidance
Apple guides conservatively — which is to say it low-balls its earnings and revenue numbers for the coming quarter so that it can blow them out of the water three months later. It’s a game the company plays every quarter, but the market never seems to learn; Apple’s shares invariably take a hit in after-hours trading.
For more: http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/10/20/q4-earnings-a-guide-to-apples-guidance/
Fortune Magazine
Apple 2.0
Mac news from outside the reality distortion field
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
OCTOBER 20, 2008, 10:41 AM
Q4 earnings: A guide to Apple’s guidance
Apple guides conservatively — which is to say it low-balls its earnings and revenue numbers for the coming quarter so that it can blow them out of the water three months later. It’s a game the company plays every quarter, but the market never seems to learn; Apple’s shares invariably take a hit in after-hours trading…
The link to the rest of the article won’t post, but it’s easy to find.
MOS – Mosaic
76% off 52 week high
P/E of 6
P/CF of 6
3 Insiders buying recently.
I found this on a screen. Fly, what made you look at this??
some asshole has a bid in at 120 on apple
quotes are all messed up….opens in a minute
Fly why do you waste your typing skills on devildog, its like talking to the neighbors who only speak polish.
In other news, when does APPL re-open?
fly, go land on a teaming pile of bullshit that you love so much. You’re going to eat some of it tomorrow. Serves your bulltarded ass right. Anybody ever tell you this is a BEAR market? Not a fake BULL market created from lying, corrupt, cheating assholes from NYC?
There she blows. 88
I want to be like DevilDog.
I’ll visit here and post shit like “I’m short GOOG from $600″, short RIMM from $140”
It will make me sound cool and basically, I have nothing else to do.
I think DevilDog is actually the alter ego of Ducati.
Fuck. Am I seeing AAPL go green relative to the close
yup
Wow AAPL now up AH. I was looking forward to buying around 75 tomorrow.
touched 85 and rocketed
wow apple wtf? UP? WOW im so surpriseD!
FLY – u da man. Devil suck on a rat’s butthole, u fruitloop.
AAPL going up. Steve weighed in at 129lbs.
All is good.
I’ll let it do its thing and think about it in the am.
If AAPL goes up tomorrow, Devildog and the rest of the beartards will have their balls nucleared.
Jobs announced a few minutes ago, during the conference call, that he has a mini-me plus a clone in the works.
HEY DEVILDOG,
Go fuck your twin brother.
The Fly said he had sold his big AAPL position when the stock was at 180ish earlier this year. At the time, Fly noted that he felt the long-term investment run was over. He recently bought a small position in the stock to fuck around.
If you’re not going to read the blog, then just STFU.
By the way: the guy makes lot’s of good calls. He’s wrong probably 40% of the time, but, guess what, welcome to the fucking world of trading. If you aren’t managing your risk, you should stay out of the game. This is a trading community, not a nursery ward.
-Phil
Well. so much for everyone who “knew” that AAPL would get flame broiled.
Why would one come on this site and constantly bash its owner?
Seems stupid to me.
Congrats to you brass cajones mutherfucks.
When it comes to the market I try to be like Sgt. Schultz.
I know nothing, I hear nothing, and I see nothing.
It is best this way.
^+1.
Same sentiment here Phil.
if you trade with higher than 70/30 accuracy over the lt, you are probably lying.
Got order in to SHORT AAPL @ $98. Come to pappa.
Cuba, ahem, discovers 20,000,000,000 barrels of oil to be brought online by mid 2009. demoncrat bastards in the tank for fidel and hugo. at least it’s good to know that the gulf environment is in good hands.
Got it! Thanks stupid bulltards!
Liveblogging of the AAPL conference call here:
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/10/apple-q4-earnings-analysis
AAPL is generating cash faster than anyone not named Bernanke.
Part of me thinks DEVILDOG is a plant by FLY to keep us all engaged.
It’s hard to believe someone could be that worthless
“Apple guides conservatively — which is to say it low-balls its earnings and revenue numbers for the coming quarter so that it can blow them out of the water three months later. It’s a game the company plays every quarter, but the market never seems to learn; Apple’s shares invariably take a hit in after-hours trading…”
Looks like the market finally caught on.
No Devils is real, as unbelievable as it may seem.
Folks, we will go up 1,000 points tomorrow, nothing less.
Spread the word.
Yes, Sir Cigur, but the low-balled guidance was swinging lower than expected. The fear was that AAPL had seen a really bad start to the current quarter.
I think everybody saw a really bad start to the current quarter. The question is, how does it finish once the paralysis and panic starts to ease?
I think the iPhone keeps AAPL in great shape this quarter.
Why would one come on this site and constantly bash its owner?
Why would the owner constantly berate his readers? It cuts both ways though, because clearly Fly can dish it but he can’t take it.
If the market goes up 1000 points, UYG could see a really good day. Up 3-4 cents, maybe. /sarcasm
Oh and Devil, that comment about criminal NYC grifters was spot on.
Scum Bucket:
Shut up.
can aaple blow thru 100
AAPL will blow through 200 tomorrow.
Spread the word.
Thx bearshitters
hahah Devil is short at 98 .. doh!
Over $100 AH
Momma just updated the menu for our asian westwant…Fwied Devildog with applesauce.
AAPL is going to punch DevilDog’s whig off tomorrow.
LOL – good questions scum bucket I guess I got so used to it I forgot how egregious it was.
I personally like the way Fly berates his readers. It’s part of the blog’s charm. Kind of like Rodney Dangerfield. If he stops he would probably lose 75%+ of the readers.
Heading for $102
Going to fill that gap above 120!
Devildog is obviously some homo who got shitcanned from a Wall Street firm for being a total moron. Now he is plotting futile revenge on those who are more successful than he is, via his bullshit 4-figure Etrade account and his parents’ Packard Bell computer. Spread the word.
Upward move in AAPL AH halted by this comment:
“5:44 iPhone prediction? We don’t predict unit sales at a product level; did begin shipping in many more countries last quarter. 2 million units channel build; something you would have to take into account predicting fiscal Q1 sales. Will expand.”
Fly – is AAPL worth chasing up here or wait for am.
PS stocks suck.
A correction, good sir. Whig is a defunct political party, not something that can be “punched off”. I believe the word you’re looking for is “wig”. Good day to you, sir.
boomer..should have held homey
Jerry Yang should be arrested for his stupidity in not selling to MSFT for $33 a share ( or was it $34-35 ?) . That has to be the dumbest decision ever.
For the hell of it, MSFT should come back to the table with an offer of $15 a share. Lets see Yang suck on that.
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
stocks suck
ott –
Agreed. Apple could come out of this downturn a big winner. I think some of their competition goes away over the next 18 months. Also, tho iPhone has a target on it’s touch screen, I think there is some flexibility in the rate and service structure of the AT&T plans. A little creativity there could take the fun out of introducing a new product against the iPhone.
Fry -if you could be so kind and have fortune cookie with “AAPL 191.00 +100” on your home page – momma would weally like that.
Looks to me like it might roll back over here.
Enough already. Leave me alone.
If crAAPL opens over $100 tomorrow I will short it. I think a slowing economy is going to knock this stock to $50. My theory is all growth stocks lose 75% of their peak value during recessions. Do research its true. plus the internets never lies ( excuse my shitty vocabulary, I went to state college unlike you ivy league fat cats)
crAAPL peaked at $202 and change. divide that by 4. thats $50 and change.
By “roll back over” do you mean it will go to $120 tonight?
Hugging the 20 min avg. Volume tailing off.
Not much into TA, but isn’t that a big freaking triangle on all the spy, DIA, etc. charts?
AAPL is rolling over Devildog’s IROC Z with a monster truck full of iPhones.
My nipples are so fucking hard right now.
I thought those were your ribs.
CAP, at $50/share, market cap would be $45bn. Cash is about $25bn and growing fast.
Also, because of massive deferred revenue, AAPL’s earnings will continue to climb for several quarters even if new sales drop.
At least Steve still has some blood flow.
Deferred revenue is insanely great.
Take a memo: kill Anton Cigur and bring his pancreas to my office for my immediate consumption.
Not enough volume to push it much past 103. I think it tests 100 in AH.
Another SHORT order in on AAPL @ 104. Hope it hits.
ottnott Says:
CAP, at $50/share, market cap would be $45bn. Cash is about $25bn and growing fast.
Also, because of massive deferred revenue, AAPL’s earnings will continue to climb for several quarters even if new sales drop.
Whats ‘massive deferred revenue’ ? The monies they have no chance of collecting cause consumers are too broke to pay ?
same thing happened w/ google AH. within 2 days it lost its gains…
Everyone talks about YHOO. What about the idiots from SNDK? They declined a rich buyout too.
Look who has a new action figure:
http://www.figurerealm.com/viewcustomfigure.php?FID=6774
Why are we talking about AAPL after hours trade?
Wait until tomorrow morning.
Idiots.
Yeah, but who wants to work for Steve Ballmer or Koreans?
AAPL will get punished, maybe not tomorrow, but shortly, imho.
You’d have to be an idiot to be long the consumer. AAPL is a consumer pure play, for the most part.
Companies with exclamation points in their names always go bankrupt. Look it up.
CAP asked:
Whats ‘massive deferred revenue’ ? The monies they have no chance of collecting cause consumers are too broke to pay ?
No. You have it mixed up with option ARM mortgages, where the mortgage companies were booking profits on deferred interest revenue – cash that was still in the homebuyers’ pockets.
Deferred revenue is cash that is already (most of it, anyway) in AAPL’s pocket, but they are not recognizing the revenue and any associated profits until future quarters.
Long QLD @ close for 10%. Qs bouncing off 32.5 AH but expecting 34+ before Th. Closed yesterday’s URPIX
Got some at 103.
FLY- The SNDK buyout was $26 a share and SNDK currently trades 42% below at $15. The YHOO buyout was $33-35 a share and YHOO currently trades 65% below – $12 and change. So in retrospect Dr. Jerry Yang PhD appears more asshattish though Dr. Eli Harari PHD is a close second. Yang and Harari are both PHds in Advanced Asshattery.
PS. Doctors and PHds are asshattish investors.
Two things:
We are witnessing the deballing of DevilDog in real time, which is fantastic.
And, secondly, I am long AAPL from $92, which makes Wood’s statement all the more ridiculous.
Deferred revenue is cash that is already (most of it, anyway) in AAPL’s pocket, but they are not recognizing the revenue and any associated profits until future quarters.
Ottnett – This deferred revenues makes no sense. Either you make the revenue and recognize it or you don’t. It only makes sense if you are trying to pull financial shenanigans.
I don’t trust Steve Jobs. I dont trust crAAPL. Bottom line, someone needs to take a long hard look into these ‘deferred revenues’ and figure out what they are. Right now it looks more like stuff they sold on credit and is likely in default but they prefer to call it ‘deferred revenues’ because they have a 1% chance of getting a portion of it back.
AAPL will be back over $110 shortly.
Fly, I wasn’t addressing you, specifically.
I’m all for playing the bounce.
Its after the bounce its done that I’m speaking of.
I wrote:
“the mortgage companies were booking profits on deferred interest revenue”
Sorry. That isn’t deferred interest revenue. It is interest receivable, meaning that they booked profit as if the interest payments would arrive, but the cash was still in the hands of the homebuyers.
Yahoo should have taken Microsoft’s money and run, but afterwards, Microhoo would have failed as surely as Microsoft and Yahoo are failing separately. Yahoo is an empty bubble of a company and a shitty buy even at $13….take it from someone who was once long ago paid primarily in underwater options.
CAP:
Think of a magazine subscription.
Let’s say you pay Sports Illustrated $39 for a 56-week subscription. They have your cash, but they will treat most of it as deferred revenue in the quarter they receive it, because they have to “earn” the revenue over a 56-week period.
That is deferred revenue.
DevilDog, should have waited for 104
Woods: Not before that gap above 120 gets filled!
Believe me, I wouldn’t be shorting AAPL. I wouldn’t be getting long here either, except for a trade.
The Sun is going down on JAVA. Don’t bet the Q’s on AAPL only.
Cap, you don’t trust deferred revenue?
Ok, fair enough…I think it’s fair then for me to inquire if you are, as a point in fact, retarded?
I got your money you smelly little bitch of a mut.
Devil: 104.42 now. Are you shorting some more at $106? Average up until it goes to 120 in a few weeks!
This just in. Devildog seen running down Broadway with his underwear turned inside out and chocolate skidmarks front to back.
“Cap, you don’t trust deferred revenue?
Ok, fair enough…I think it’s fair then for me to inquire if you are, as a point in fact, retarded?”
Whats retarded about not trusting deferred revenues ? It could be for orders that end up being cancelled. A large reseller of AAPL products in Asia or elsewhere could have placed a large order and then decides to cancel. In this environment you can’t trust shit.
If you want to bend over infront of Steve Jobs, pull down your boxers,hold your ankles and believe that Steve won’t fuck you up the ass, then go ahead. I’d rather be cautious. Like I said before, I dont trust Steve Jobs and I don’t trust crAAPL. CEOs are mostly pathological liars and will pull any shit to get their stock price up.
Thunder –
Would you believe I haven’t seen dollar ONE from those effing dolls? I thought I was relentless, but Hollywood will kill you for your ancillary rights.
Sound’s like someone’s still sore about what happened on their
date with Steve-O.
My apologies, Danny.
I thought you’d been a bit too harsh. I was wrong.
Steve Jobs is my co-pilot.
“still sore” after the date with Steve-O
…pun intended?
When will Kerkorian realize that you can’t buy a fucking company with union workers? First GM then F, if they are going to buy shares they should buy out the company. Hell they could buy 40% of the company at this level compared to where they first bought. Just wait until the messiah raises corporate taxes and puts the auto industry out of business.
What’s the corporate income tax due on a $10 billion loss?
ottnott, haha.
Of all the debatable or subjective things in acct. rev recognition, conservatism, are a few principles I can actually fully agree with. That’s why it’s funny.
I mean, CAP, may as well not trust anything at all ever. The point is, “the magazine co” wont BOOST EARNINGS ARTIFICIALLY by claiming they sold you a YEARS worth of magazines, when technically they’ve only delivered TWO.
you realize that this does the opposite of what you suspect.
FLY
2 things:
1. Have you been in touch with CNBC regarding the man with a pony tail farting live on TV last Friday? That was fucking sick.
2. DEVILDOG is a fucking homo. He craves your attention like a little boy trying to impress his daddy……wahhhhhhhhh. Will you consider banning him please? At least ignore his plea for your meat stick and chocolate donut muscle.
The word is PHAT.
Prepare for a Chinese bailout!!!
Devildog, your the smartest person I know. Keep up the good work shorting.
ottnott: Chances are the messiah will tax losses too.
Any thoughts on this from today on CNBC?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1Mazjm_A5k
Barney Frank is and sounds like an idiot.
The markets up 400 points and the chairman of the Financial Services committee goes on CNBC and says he is going to encourage the next likely U.S. President to increase government spending and taxes.
I picked me up some Apple Calls biotches! Gonna bank some paper (fuck coin) tomorrow!
Anton –
Been seeing them sold everywhere too, including my local family eating establishment. Two kids were holding the nozzles to each other’s forehead and going “pshhhhhhhh” while eating pizza.
Kerkorian made money on Chrysler years ago and he has been trying to replay it. I owned GMAC bonds while he made his GM play – I could not wait on those bonds to mature – just one thing after another with an auto company – GM used to be a finance company that made autos to lend money to the buyers – that’s all. Kirk has someone do the analysis for him, but apparently did not ask what happens if oil spikes and what happens if a recession.
Amanda Drury is showing some heavy cleavage this morning. Maybe Shanghai will be “up.”
Tradercaddy – you’re probably thinking of Don Rickles. He’s the master of put downs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lKn_K9m1Zg&feature=related
quote:
“TraderCaddy Says:
I personally like the way Fly berates his readers. It’s part of the blog’s charm. Kind of like Rodney Dangerfield. If he stops he would probably lose 75%+ of the readers.”
When will Kerkorian realize that you can’t buy a fucking company with union workers? First GM then F, if they are going to buy shares they should buy out the company. Hell they could buy 40% of the company at this level compared to where they first bought. Just wait until the messiah raises corporate taxes and puts the auto industry out of business.
This is not a joke. We will not even take union-afflicted companies on as clients any more. There is NO market. None. Zero. Zip. Leprosy, cancer, choose your metaphor.
______
CAP
GM was also a Healthcare company that sold car at loss to clients that could barely afford financing.
The kid is 91, Jake. He’s blowing all his cash before he goes. It’s his way of redistributing his wealth.
I saw the gap at 120 and I don’t care. I’ve got a ton of shorts at 178. I’ll short AAPL from here to 120 as I’m only using 3% of my cash. I’ll hold them until at least S&P 720 which won’t be long. We’ll see who makes the BIG bucks. BTW, I’m holding all my AAPL SHORTS to $46.
Anyone here trade PFF? I like the bank perfered shares and you get some FCX & SGP perfereds in here too. Good looking chart as well.
Thunder –
“Two kids were holding the nozzles to each other’s forehead and going “pshhhhhhhh” while eating pizza.”
That’s disturbing even for me.
Who else thinks Deviled Frog is full of shit, ovah heah?
(raises hand)
_____
Devildog … The fucking market is presently up more than 1000 points from the low. Since we’ve made that low in the market, good traders (like me), have made egregious sums of coin. Idealist like you, can lose your balls in a market like this.
Furthermore, this Donny fully understands that one’s beliefs, and perceived understanding of what should happen, can cost you your balls in a fucked up stock market, like this one.
With that said, I do think we will trade at new lows, but why place 97% of your portfolio in peril? That’s just retarded.
Evidence Fly is a “secret gentlemen” despite the hard-ass pose,
Exhibit A:
Scum Bucket:
Shut up.
_______
Somewhat stilted, no? What’s missing, and, more important, why?
__
Fuck off Devildouche.
You got played like a bitch.
Your lies about being short from 178 make you look like a weak pathetic cry baby.
sweet dreams you fucking baby.
We all enjoyed you showing us how much of an asshole you are today…..thanks for the laugh.
JakeGint Says:
Who else thinks Deviled Frog is full of shit, ovah heah?
(raises hand)
I second that.
Kirk is an interesting character. Gm has a little profit worldwide outside North America. In order to cut one to two thousand per vehicle to compete with Toyota, the union workers were offered buyouts – it took all the cash GM had to buy ’em out. GM still has too many dealers – the Toyota model is fewer dealers – GM has a legacy of too many dealers like the legacy of union.
Hey ass wipe mike. Tell you what I’ll buy your AAPL shares at $46 to cover my 1800 shares at $178. Get a clue. Try buying a vowel.
Donny, how do you get I’m 97% in? I’m 40% cash and and just shorting the rips here in small blocks of 100 shares. However, thanks for your concern. BTW, I’m up 57% this year so far. Shooting for 98% before the end of November.
Devildouche- now your move is to down play your appl position and your cash levels. I wont even address what you claim to be your YTD gains…..(roll the eyes)
You are a amatuer.
And once again, we all thank you for the laugh.
We havent seen a douchbag like you around here in a while.
Satan Hound … I’m happy you’re up 57% … that’s pretty good, boy. If I told you what my gains were this year, you wouldn’t believe me. But I will say this, it should probably be illegal what I’ve done this year … fucking sickening, and way over the top.
What I bought today:
NRP (more)
NOV (more)
OXY (initial)
SDY (more, try it, it’s delicious)
CHK (more)
Anyone sense a theme?
_______
Energy and dividends?
NRP looks juicy. Hadn’t been exposed to them before. Is this a long term position?