I have sirens and red flashing lights going on in my office today, like some sort of nuclear submarine battle station.
Listen up and good: credit default swaps are scaring the shit out of everyone. Whether it should happen or not, people really do think the market will crash. From General Electric Company [[GE]] to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] to Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , the market is thinking about putting them out of business. Without question, this is the most interesting market I have ever traded in.
Anyway, I sold all of my [[DIG]] and [[IEO]] , exercising some overdue discipline. I know I had a fucking thesis, as to why I was right going long oil: but I changed my mind.
In my opinion, there is no longer a reason to keep hedges or any long positions for that matter, with exception to being long 200% inverse etf’s.
With much of the proceeds, I loaded up on [[SRS]] , as previously outlined.
So, at the present, my position sheet looks something like this:
[[SKF]]
[[SRS]]
[[REW]]
[[SSG]]
[[TWM]]
[[FXP]]
[[EEV]]
Short Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]]
Short Marshall & Ilsley Corporation Marshall & Ilsley Corporation [[Mi]]
Short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]]
Short Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]]
Short Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]]
Short PacWest Bancorp [[PACW]]
Short [[FED]]
Short East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]]
Short AXA (ADR) [[AXA]]
Short Janus Capital Group Inc. [[JNS]]
Short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]]
Short General Electric Company [[GE]]
long Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]]
long National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]]
long Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]]
long Clean Energy Fuels Corp. [[CLNE]]
long other bullshit names that are losing me money today.
All in all, I am up a staggering 10.5% as I write this.
Hence the phrase: “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” applies.
Flashback UPDATE: Ron Paul
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vcc59kf2IU 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
So what’s the deal, do I have to short SKF today if I want in?
Fly, do crashes happen on the way down or when people don’t expect it?
I just wanted to short AXA in europe and I see that it is up 0.3%, can someone explain it?
Hey i am just wondering,
i believe you that we are going to crash, but i am an options trader so i don’t have the luxury of dollar spreads or overnight positioning since i play mostly in the month trades..
Would you say we crash immediately like today, or over the next few sessions?
Because i thought i saw GS hit that 100 and everyone went short-covering or bottom dipping which could help the market to at least recover some of its losses today.
Fly,
It looks like you panicked.
Very nice holdings, sir…
panicked you little shit?
How about fucking nailed it?
Cubs… People aren’t expecting it. Everybody’s saying “Look at the charts!”, “No more naked shorts!”, “D.C. is bying Wallstreet”, “Yay!”
How much are you up for the year? Also, are you going to invite us for a BBQ celebration?
Everytime you think Fast Money dumb dumb’s need to be listened to, remember that their stupid ncaa tournament of stocks awarded GS the stock of the year and said 200 dollars was locked in. Out of 64 stocks, that was their top pick. So you haters can defend that but not give Fly credit? Dumb Dumbs.
Back in VSE here, why not eyh?
IF we do crash (big if) then watch gold stocks and if they get hit hard dump your gold as it too will get smashed shortly thereafter. Everything will be liquidated.
I’m out their making loads – did much covering in the banks and company , BTW I am Josh, and am 23 y/o NY dude, who BTW lives 7 minutes from JC- he used hang with my pop while whlie coaching my sis in town sports…go JC
Look at that fuckface, Dennis Kneale.
“Guys, we’re not fucking around anymore”.
No shit Dennis!
Fly-Did you short the Mets too?!
FUCK!!!!!
Any guesses when the world’s leaders call a Plaza Accord/Bretton Woods convention to build a new financial system?
I’m assuming they haven’t been doing so discretely already.
Hey, where are you fucking bulls now?
Au Contrair and Co. You there, fuckers?
Oh, I forgot, you’re dead.
Ditto on the liquidation thing. That’s what most people don’t understand. Gold was due for a bounce anyway; when these gay assholes need money they will sell it and their mothers’ prescription meds in order to raise capital.
Fly:
What do you think will happen if we see coordinated rate cuts with the Euro-trash. I think Gold is telling us this is likely to happen and sooner than we think.
Fly, nice job. I’m only up 5% to 8% today, but I’ll take it. Looking for a little more SRS before I hit the pickinic basket.
The fundamentals of the economy are sound…
…ing the depths.
Wow. Mostly in gold and cash, can’t deal with stocks right now. And I’ll put a stop on the GLD just in case we get an emergency rate cut. I doubt Bernanke will do it though, if they were going to do it, they would have done it yesterday.
I like that nice bright green stock within your list of shorts.
I guess a lot of covering today in FED to raise some coin.
Ugh. Just saw an alternative use of the term “sounding”. It involves the urethra and “recreational” use of a thin rod.
Humans are endlessly marvelous creatures.
your FXP call was my favorite … such patience and such profits. nice one.
any gold love?
Timber!
The Fuckers on CNBC keep talking about the credit swaps, yet no mention of GE up to their fucking eyeballs in the shit.
Buy CPB long because we are gonna be in the soup lines
what about gold???? can we long gold here?
If you want your bread and butter come next week I had better see some bidding on bank stocks.
Come on now, I’m a bear.. On SKF,FXP and SRS(The Massive 2 yr Head & Shoulder).
The Fly for President.
There’s your $99 print in Goldman.
John Mack already has dibs for this weekend’s shotgun marriage, Lloyd Blankfeid will have to put his off for a week.
Blankfein
covered GS @ 99 . Short from 134. Comrade Paulson will pull out his bazooka and terminate the shorts anytime now.
GS OCT 40 puts are going for $4 a piece.
its puzzling that this “event” cannot push SRS above $100.
It can’t even get to yesterdays high.
?
By “flip-flop” do you mean he cut his losses on a bad trade? If so I hope you “flip-flop” on your failed trades too.
Hey Ducati…
Part of being good in this market is knowing when you were wrong and making a change. What are you up YTD?
That’s right. Snoop on snoopy.
Who are you kidding fuckface, if you’re unwilling to flip-flop in a market like this, you could be die.
Nonconforming, non-pragmatic, fuckers will be double-fisted in this market.
RC noted the decline in CEG yesterday. They’re taking it down again today.
Ducati,
It’s been awhile. Traders change their minds all the time.
You’re missing the forest for the trees with your criticism.
Anyway, today isn’t as fun as it should be for many in my office. The sell off has been largely orderly… we’ll see if it ends that way. I think not.
-DT
Donny, not if your The Fly. The Fly is always right, he should stick to his original idea.
The nickname “Flip Flop Fly” is so funny in so many different ways. Unless he was actually wearing crox in the pool.
Fly,
Can I borrow the keys to the time machine? There was stuff I meant to do yesterday.
Never fails. The shiny motorbike shows up and a few people can’t resist getting taken for a ride.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/17/16019/the-feds-run-out-of-money/
The Fed’s run out of money
Sep 17 15:15
by Paul Murphy
Comment
(31 comments)
Seriously. It’s broke. Here’s the statement from the US Treasury:
The Federal Reserve has announced a series of lending and liquidity initiatives during the past several quarters intended to address heightened liquidity pressures in the financial market, More…
Seriously. It’s broke. Here’s the statement from the US Treasury:
The Federal Reserve has announced a series of lending and liquidity initiatives during the past several quarters intended to address heightened liquidity pressures in the financial market, including enhancing its liquidity facilities this week. To manage the balance sheet impact of these efforts, the Federal Reserve has taken a number of actions, including redeeming and selling securities from the System Open Market Account portfolio.
The Treasury Department announced today the initiation of a temporary Supplementary Financing Program at the request of the Federal Reserve. The program will consist of a series of Treasury bills, apart from Treasury’s current borrowing program, which will provide cash for use in the Federal Reserve initiatives.
Announcements of and participation in auctions conducted under the Supplementary Financing Program will be governed by existing Treasury auction rules. Treasury will provide as much advance notification as possible regarding the timing, size, and maturity of any bills auctioned for Supplementary Financing Program purposes.’’
TXN may go + soon.
GNW getting bitch slapped…
http://boombustblog.com/content/view/577/96/
I am fairly heavily concentrated in the I Banks, but I am considering shorting Morgan even more
Written by Reggie Middleton
Wednesday, 17 September 2008
I believe Morgan Stanley is doing the smoke and mirrors thing again. I have a relatively heavy bearish position and don’t want to concentrate any more, but I smell opportunity. Contrary to what management has to say, Reggie Middleton says this company is in trouble. One of us is wrong! Hey, I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
I was in my broker’s office this morning, there was a look of pallor and nervous huddling going on amongst all the senior staff.
I hope I bought some blood today. Dunno.
Wonder why Gold is off & running?
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSPEK4365020080917?sp=true
China paper urges new currency order after “financial tsunami”
Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:45am EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) – Threatened by a “financial tsunami,” the world must consider building a financial order no longer dependent on the United States, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Wednesday.
Cramer points out the real outrage of our current financial situation:
He has been “dismissed as a gadfly.”
http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10437656.html#1801172614
love that LM short!!
Eventually right, ALWAYS early –
Doug Kass
Bullish
9/17/2008 1:06 PM EDT
I have been buying broadly across the board all day.
Position: n/a
Ducati,
I just think if you want to stick people to their “thesises” [sic] that maybe you should go into Anthropology or something, where “thesises” [sic] and people’s minds matter more than their guts.
Added bonus… New Zealand is probably great for Anthropologists.
-DT
I see that you only trade in hindsight, but cliam “I’m up huge.”
It’s so fucking egregious … SICK! Fucking SICK! Hide your women, hide your children. 65% YTD and growing every fucking week(end).
BTW, I’m not a stock picker, but I’m very, very lucky!
Anyone watching CNBC? Legg Mason just called in and said they have no exposure to Lehman or AIG.
What?
Ducati is too smart for his own good, literally. He has some sort of DNA defect that cause his own intelligence to work against himself. A ready made self-sabotage button.
Ducati – Get over your self, literally. You’ll be much happier & wealthier, in more ways than one. You can do it now or do it in 10-50 years but do it you will, eventually.
Great trading Fly! Epic times. Feels like Nasdaq 2000 all over again… but worse, like 10x worse. I don’t think a lot of people have traded there.
I still think that if CNBC is going to play Hollywood Squares they should have invited Paul Lynde (R.I.P).
Time for a dead kitty bounce?
In 1987 Mode
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/17/2008 1:31 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10437938.html
It’s time to talk turkey about the prices on your screen and recall another time when things felt like this — the crash of 1987. In 1987, we believed that all the major firms in the brokerage industry were going to go belly-up. Many of them were not in compliance with paperwork, others were simply not even picking up the phone. It felt like the end of the world. It wasn’t. But it was eerie.
We are in that mode again. I don’t think anyone looking at Morgan Stanley (MS) or Goldman Sachs (GS) today would dispute that. These companies are clearly reflecting that they are in severe straits, much worse than I think they are. In many ways, this time it is worse than 1987 because AIG (AIG) and Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) and Lehman (LEH) still haven’t been sorted through. We have too many aftershocks that we must worry about, and there is too much damage in the system. Plus, there is now a sense that the U.S. government has become a cartoon government with a cartoon currency and a cartoon Fed. No rate cut? Oh my! How wrong!!
I think the Fed is in shock that we are not doing better today, but what they failed to recognize is that the erosion in confidence from their worrying about inflation is staggering. I think also, right now, they should be on the phone to the big repositories of capital in the Middle East and Asia and urge them to take advantage of these prices.
I want to make it clear: In many ways this period right now is worse than 1987. AIG, Lehman, FNM, FRE, Bear, and who the heck knows what else? Right now we are experiencing a true meltdown in financials. There is very little hope at this moment that we can turn it around ourselves.
I think that unless we get some outside help from the Middle East or China, it won’t end. Our government has made so many mistakes, our Fed has made so many mistakes, that I can understand why people would panic.
I simply have to believe, though, that there is outside capital that wants in. I believe that money does exist that can come in and stabilize things. But I also want to point out that without it, we are most likely not done going down.
Again, without it, we were down 508 points from the 2300 level in 1987, and we had a much more capable Fed and government. So I can’t rule out a big percentage decline from here. It could happen again unless we get some grownups from outside our own universe to come and put money here right here.
Without it, we cannot take 1987 off the table, even though I think the situation is not as perilous given the incredible liquidity of so many companies and the moves that have been made to preserve the system already.
What happened in 1987 that turned things around? The major Wall Street firms with capital came in and bought the market at about 1400 on Terrible Tuesday. They had the capital to do so. We don’t anymore. The foreigners do, I do hope that we are making calls to the major sovereign funds from companies more flush than ours.
Without it, you can figure that history can always repeat itself even though the pain is in one sector only — finance — and the rest can be handled given the cash in the corporate coffers and the sidelines. To save finance, we need more than just our own help — we need major intervention from the incredibly tight EU. We also need major infusions of cash into financials from the likes of the big Middle East sovereign funds.
Logically, we should bottom at some point, just like we bottomed in 1987. That bottom did not occur until we declined more than 50% from our highs. But then we caught bargains of a lifetime. I think some capital should be kept for that moment.
I also think that we need to be on the lookout for major buys caused by panic, too. Not a sop to the bulls, just a statement that fear is so prevalent that there have to be some opportunities in rock-solid companies with no debt that are down way too much at this very moment. Some stuff isn’t down enough, some stuff has much further to fall, but some stuff can be bought right around here if the companies do not need cash and can withstand this assault.
Michelle Caruso Cabrera is hot.
Duc,
Go fuck a goat and quit wasting your time and ours.
dicati,
Why do I sense, you’re on the wrong side of the trade?
Ducati – you have a strange way of showing your envy.
If you focused more on yourself and less on others, perhaps it would serve you better.
Contractor… and annoying.
Are you on the wrong side of the trade?
You are … and here’s what I think about that:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKb0v27N3xc
Poof!
4 years of market gains have vanished.
Cramer, tell me about the bottom again. I love that story.
I think todays internal memo will read
“Holy shit – every man for himself”.
The Game is Rigged — +15 karma for that.
VIX at high of day. Can we get to 40?
My NYSE A/D line shows 1.00 for advance issues… Hah
Lastly, I want to be paid my $10 bet + interest compounding @ 15%
LOL!
-DT
Meanwhile, has anyone mentioned GOLD?
Unbelievable move.
-DT
Fly – Can you share your thoughts on HIG? Major institutional holders include Axa, Neuberger Berman and Morgan Stanley.
Here to hoping that Ducati kills himself.
And I’ll put a stop on the GLD just in case we get an emergency rate cut.
An “emergency rate cut” should send gold back to $1000, love.
Hold on.
_