iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,446 Blog Posts

A Special Message From Merlin

Poof. Your bullshit host, “Fly,” is gone—off to have his staples removed.

-Merlin

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55 comments

  1. boca

    Glad you’re all better now Fly.

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  2. Hammer

    LM ripped higher. Hopefully the nurse will be more gentle.

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  3. PPT Chairman

    Mr. Fly, AIG is here to stay.

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  4. PPT

    Short squeeze sandwich, enjoy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGO1-2RfvMg

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  5. Tit Bids fm MV

    Todd Harrison

    02:41:48 PM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    Is the Fed reading Minyanville?
    In the 2:33 post, we asked if the reason the Fed held pat was because they were preparing a loan package for AIG (AIG).

    At 2:38, we got our answer.

    This is wilder and crazier than Steve Martin on crack.

    R.P.

    MV News

    02:39:54 PM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    AIG Alert
    AIG (AIG) may get a loan package from the Fed. (Bloomberg)

    Todd Harrison

    02:33:53 PM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    Like a moth in a lightbulb factory…

    * The government is trying to administer some tough love but the market is extremely fragile.

    * Anyone wanna venture a guess as to when the emergency rate cut chatter starts?

    * By NOT cutting rates, are they signaling that they’ll somehow participate in an AIG (AIG) backstop of some sort?

    * The credit markets are getting worse—not better—and in the absence of an interim solution, equities have room to the downside.

    * To Minyan Peter’s earlier point, check out Constellation Energy (CEG), which is down 40%–forty percent–as a function of counter-party risk to Lehman Brothers (LEH).

    * The first move is the false move?* I’ve added the asterisk for obvious reasons.

    * The counter-party risk at AIG makes Lehman Brothers look like a pimple on an elephant’s ass. Something needs to be done and soon.

    * The most likely scenario is a solution to buy time—a conservatory or something similar to Resolution Trust Company. That’s why two-sided risk remains—the announcement of that would spark a short-squeeze at the expense of the dollar.

    * Deep breath Minyans–we’ll tell our grandkids about this market one day. Well, I suppose I’ve gotta have kids first. Or a wife. Or a girlfriend. Geez, does Daisy count?

    * Smile–try it, seriously–it’ll likely help.

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  6. The Contractor

    Can someone tell what the attraction to holding LEH is? I don’t understand why anyone would want to be long the equity?

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  7. CubsRock

    Be sure to keep the staples so you have something to throw out of your window on a rainy day.

    They are bidding the shit out of my AIG calls. Have to take some off the table here.

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  8. Market Fool

    Hey Donny good job man.

    Balls of fucking steel!

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  9. pdf

    can u explain wtf that CEG move was

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  10. Bill Miller

    CEG credit rating was at risk, ie. one downgrade and they would be hanging out with the boys from LEH.

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  11. The Contractor

    Short Squuuueeeeeeezzzzzzeeeee……..

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  12. charlie

    look at WNR run. yeehaw!

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  13. Big Mike

    Blah…I am out of AIG @ $4.40ish….

    I was thinking of keeping 1500 shares for the long run (in case AIG does not go bankrupt), but I figured blackjack is more fun.

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  14. Carey

    fuckn fed, i took a loss on a long after that announcement and reversed.

    Look where it is now. just let AIG die and roll.
    Fuckn got killed with this intraday whipsaw bullshit

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  15. SatanicChihuahua

    AIG shitting itself again. Guess the rumor for the next 10 minutes is the FED is backing away from a bridge loan.

    Don’t worry. Meatball will make one more appearance before the close saying the FED is back in bed with AIG.

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  16. CAP

    In retrospect selling SKF north of $140 would have been a great move today. The market has likely bottomed. Does not feel like a bottom but I figure even if the news gets worse we will hold these levels.

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  17. CAP, you think it has bottomed if GS and MS have to pair up with banks? ……and 1,000 to 1/3 of all banks go under?……….and one trillion more has to be written off in the financial system?……..and the mortgage foreclosures are far from over………the future looks pretty bleak.

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  18. SatanicChihuahua

    Meatball to the rescue!!

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  19. Anyone else think BIDU is going lower? I see a triple top on the 30 min chart from the past 4 days and now it broke below its 5day MA. Even after the market rally today, BIDU has not gone up.

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  20. Anton Cigur

    SatanicChi,
    If by “meatball” you were talking about Charlie Gasparino, you were just proven correct. A satanic Scoobie snack to you! And another for your mutt, Charlie Gas!

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  21. derr

    Staples? Was your “screw loose”, so they had to staple your head instead?

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  22. Justin

    Hey Fly

    IBKC – new 52 week high

    I guess you do bank coin

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  23. kd

    fly,
    why a big volume drop in mvis? Some bad news or LEH liquidation?
    thanks.

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  24. Employee8

    Based on trading in MFC don’t be surprised if they buy AIG’s variable annuity biz thus providing the capital AIG needs to survive ….

    Long MFC … short TRV

    MFC will rally on news they didn’t buy AIG but just their annuity biz and TRV will fall since TRV’s main competition is going BK …. just a thought for a Costanza Pair, Viz?

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  25. recusancy

    Atrios:

    Deep Thought

    The need to raise $90 billion overnight is simply a “liquidity problem.”

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  26. CAP

    Anon@ 3:39pm – yes that precisely why I Think the market has bottomed. Everybody fears other banks will collapse and this fear of things that may or may not happen is being discounted into the market. So even if all this other shit happens, alot of it is already discounted. I could be wrong about all this but, just watching indicators like VIX and P/C ratio and the reversal we had today plus the double bottom on the Dow is starting to look like a bottom. We may run to 12k by elections.

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  27. TraderCaddy

    What is the CNBC reporter smoking? New York City has it’s own Bankruptcy Ct? It’s a division of the United States District Court idiot.

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  28. ShortBus

    I had my staples removed on my surgeries TOO early, and the scars are FAR worse than they should have been. The skin started to pull apart again and made some ugly looking scars.

    DO NOT let those fuckers(evil nurses) take the staples out too early. They are there to keep the skin together and make the skin fuse together.

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  29. Employee8

    Edit:

    “TRV will fall since TRV’s main competition is going BK”

    should read “won’t be going BK” … so sorry.

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  30. Frankenstein

    Tell me about it.

    Take my advice; leave the staples in but take the BOLTS out.

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  31. Dow29

    Cap,
    Didn’t you also call the bottom 600 points ago?

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  32. Yogi & Boo Boo

    CAP, I respectfully disagree. This time really is different… (at least in the modern era – post 1929) Here’s why: The “normal” trading patterns in both the bull and bear markets since then have operated under a regulatory system that was designed to prevent or damp what used to be called “panics” where the financial system basically falls apart. This is the first test of the “new” environment since we have dismantled much of that regulation with the repeal of portions of Glass-Steagall with the provisions of Gramm-Leach-Bliley. I believe we are still in the early stages of this bear. There were some very good descriptions of these booms and panics in Richard D. Wyckoff’s books (they’re available on Amazon) One of the books (I don’t recall which) has a wonderful description of the dynamics of a market crash, and what one should do or not do whilst in the midst of it. It saved my arse [sic] in 1987. If I can find it I’ll post it. good luck.

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  33. CAP

    Dow29 – I started calling a bottom yesterday down 300 points.

    Yogi – I am calling for an intermediate term bottom. I expect this level to be breached in January or March of 2009.

    For now I think these levels hold.

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  34. TraderCaddy

    There goes AIG. I actually feel bad for Greenberg.
    There will need to be a rule that all cars insured by AIG must be pink so the other drivers know to avoid them. Gonna be hell to get a claim paid, I guess.

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  35. Your Waiter

    Would any of you gentlemen like an AIG salad sandwich?

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  36. Zach Litwin

    FLY

    Hopefully things go smoothly for you at the hospital. Seems like everytime you have some need for medical attention, the staff turn out to be morons.

    God speed

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  37. Vladimir W. Bush

    No vorries my comrades. Ve vill rescue your vorthless company AIG. The comrades at the politburo have decided that government control of financial institutions makes the most sense. No ? All control over the banks by your People’s Politburo of USSA through Commissar Paulson. Much better for the fellow comrades of Mother America.

    Thank you very much

    Vladimir W. Bush
    Secretary General Politburo USSA

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  38. TraderCaddy

    So which insurers should win from this? I see maybe Travelers, Metlife, Allstate. Any more?

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  39. TraderCaddy

    Samsung just made a 26/share offer for SNDK. Watch MU.

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  40. financial WMD

    Fed going to take rates to 1.75… next stop 0. Then it’ll go negative, and they’ll pay people to take their dollars away from them. Welcome to the United Japenese states of zimbabwamerica.
    Monopoly money anyone?

    Then again, from the opposite perspective, it doens’t matter how much they lower the rates, if people can’t qualify and banks aren’t liquid enough, no one is getting a loan, no one is growing, no money is circulating no matter how much money you print, where is it going?

    people are going to have to buy a house in straight cash homey. Banks are worthless. 0 loans available means houses are going to go 70-95% lower depending on the current average down payment. If the amount of available loans are cut in half, that means houses will eventually go 50% of the discount above….

    Of course, that assumes all other things equal which they’re not. But generally, with the national defecit at 9.5 trillion, and when you consider social security health care, and all sorts of “promises” made by the government, we’re over 5 times worse than that. Will things get 5 times worse? It will if we continue to go into debt from spending billions and billions on retarded bailouts, retarded laws and socialist communistic programs, and retarded things like comunistic (you learn what we tell you to) education and retarded wars with a bunch of retards who blow themselves up because there imaginary friend named “allah” told them to, or because a retard leading the attack against them talked with his imaginary friend, who “told him to do it”.

    So if we vote for Obama, we’re spending money on retarded things and we’re INCREASing the role of government and the size, which is already hundreds of times larger and also is several times more controlling than the government that we revolted from in the 1700s.

    But if we vote for McCain, we’re increasing the amount of money spent in wars against the retards that have bombs strapped to them saying, come and get it, I want to use you, so I can make my imaginary friend proud of me, because he has said I get 70 virgins, if I make him proud.

    And democrats and republicans ideas of a “compromise” is I want this, you want that, okay, lets just get them both, and scew over the dollar and borrow more and screw over our children and grand children. Lets rob peter to pay paul

    So the question is, “who is walking in the wrong direction the slowest”?

    friggin rediculous

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  41. heh

    who is walking in the wrong direction the slowest

    Nice rant.

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  42. TravelinLight

    Couldn’t resist posting these comments from Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning. Pretty much sums it up.

    ======

    Yes, dear reader, we watch the masters of the universe go down…with a fair amount of amusement. They claimed to be the smartest people on the planet – and demanded to be paid as if they were. They said they were doing the world a big favor – “allocating capital” so efficiently we would all get rich. And, of course, no one would get richer than they. But who could complain about their billions in bonuses when we were all getting rich?

    Now, it turns out, they weren’t so smart, after all. Like all hustlers, they weren’t smart enough to ignore their own lies. They were the ones who packaged up all that subprime debt – mortgage loans on over-priced property to people who couldn’t pay the money back; they knew what was in that “mystery meat.” Then, they got the useful stooges at the rating companies to call it Grade A. And then, they bought it themselves! What were they thinking? Not only that, they bought it on leverage – so that if it went bad, their whole company would go belly up!

    And now, mothers no longer want their babies to grow up to be stockbrokers and investment bankers. Now they want them to grow up to be bankruptcy lawyers! That’s where the money is!

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  43. KARMA

    -1

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  44. The Rich Jerk

    Fuck off

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  45. The Poor Snob

    Fuck On

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  46. The middle class ass
    The middle class ass

    Fuck you

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  47. The chinese prick

    typicar amilican algument… battre of wearth crasses…

    fook yoo arr!

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  48. stocktard

    staples were removed from the fly’s head after the brain donation – hope cramer does better with fly’s left lobe…

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  49. BOOMER

    AIG hires law firm to draw up bankruptcy papers: report
    Tue Sep 16, 2008 6:22pm EDT

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – American International Group Inc has hired law firm Weil Gotshal to draw up bankruptcy papers, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

    AIG could file for bankruptcy as soon as Wednesday if a financing solution is not reached, according to the Times, citing a person briefed on the matter.

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  50. LONG LEH

    Fuck ME!

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  51. LONG AIG

    Fuck Me Too!

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  52. Hugo Chávez

    US Gov source: Fed has no authority to put AIG into conservatorship-Reuters

    Stupid American capitalist goats!

    In a civilized country like mine, it is a, how do you say it, “a piece of cake” to take over fat piggish private enterprise.

    If this were glorious Venezuela, AIG would be state-owned three days ago, and I would sit at fat CEO’s desk, drinking brandy from his capitalist pig tape dispenser! I would be cackling and chuckling, while jackboot thugs “help themselves” to attractive secretaries and free Dr. Pepper from well-stocked capitalist swine soda machine!

    I spit on all of you from the comfort of my Official State Lawn Chair.

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  53. This is “The Fly’s” Time Machine – you can buy one too. http://www.koenigsegg.com

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  54. boca

    The latest AIG deal being reported on CNBC is that the Fed will make an $85 billion dollar loan in return for warrants equal to 80 percent of the equity in AIG. My question is, who will be the owner of the warrants? The Fed, the Treasury, or the US government?

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  55. Employee8

    TC,

    TRV and CB in property casualty, MET, PRU and MFC for life insurance and MFC, MET and SLF for annuities … personal lines TRV, ALL, SAF (now part of Liberty Mutual)and PGR and Geico (auto).

    Check out PL’s exposure to FNM/FRE/LEH/AIG … haha!

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