I just got back from my meeting, and what do you know, most of my gains from yesterday have been sucked from my skull, into the pockets of upright walking pigs.
We’re talking man sized losses here. Nonetheless, it’s days like this that test ones resolve.
I’m terribly sorry, but this rally is “fargin” nonsense.
It’s all dollar/gold related. Short term aberrations, due to leverage and margin calls. The drop in crude prompted me to sell out all of my crude positions and my entire Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] too.
To put things into context:
[[SKF]] was up 10 yesterday, down 7 today.
[[FXP]] was up 8 yesterday, down 4.5 today.
TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] nailed me to a cross, while Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] was a no show.
In short, “The Fly” always wins, even when he appears to be going bankrupt.
I have many tricks up my neatly pressed sleeve and intend to use them, over the next few weeks, in order to regain my winning ways and stop being such a loser.
In closing, I’d like to take this opportunity, while “nice Fly” is here, to thank my staff of writers for doing such a great job, day in and day out. Although I rarely agree with anything that you say, I really do appreciate the effort.
NOTE: Into the close, I bought more FXP, SKF, SRS, while blowing out of crude and my stupid AGU endeavor.
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Helluva day to have fucking meetings.
Must have been some serious mind fuckage going on.
sorry for your day.
Every time “The Fly” is absent – there are big happenings in the market. I am holding SKF but the next day it does 10 points or even 8 points, I will sell. The DOW moved down 2000 points and now has retraced about a third – I want to go full bullish, but I worry about a fake. I did not become fully bearish until most of that 2000 point drop was over.
as long as the dollar rallies, the market goes higher.
King Dollar…who knew?
“It’s good to be the KING!”
Aris, not if the dollar rallies because the velocity of money is dead & economy goes to shit.
Holy shit, a Dan Rather final comment.
__________
Wood, think about the damage (Post headline?) if he weren’t in meetings.
_____
Thanks God for “meetings.”
_____
Speaking of NY Post headlines, Fly, are you going to go back to being a Jests fan now that they picked up Favre?
He and Ghoulston are two nice pickups for the BottleGreen Boners, in my estimation.
An important side story was crude. In the early going it traded off a couple percent to around $116 (before closing 4% lower at just under $115). As day’s end drew near, oil was rapidly approaching $115, an area that I’ve been watching, because large amounts of puts had been written at $115 and $110. A friend noted that although thousands of people buy puts, not that many firms really write them. Thus, lots of “negative whip” resides between $115 and $110. Which means that a drop in prices into that range could quickly precipitate a large move, with all the attendant ramifications.
Get ready for the Lawrence J. Kudlow special hour, featuring the return of KING $ !!
Don’t miss it. Special guest – Dennis Kneale !
Set your tivo’s if you have better things to do.
Fly,
Position trading will kill you in this crazy market. My losing ways have since subsided once I decided to daytrade only. Holding overnight in this market is pretty much a crap shoot now. Until the fundamentals, economy, etc. start to matter again it’s pretty much about the dollar and oil. And there’s no way to predict what either will do from day to day.
Flats, position trading has worked very well since the July lows. Roughly 70% of breakouts since then, and we are talking well over 100, have not moved more than 8% against their breakout price. That means, if you follow a William O’Neal philosophy, buying breakouts from good bases has had win rate of over 70%, since the July lows.
I’m convinced that you guys who keep proclaiming that you gotta day trade this market can’t handle the volatility. You are putting on positions that are too large, and your stops are too tight.
Crazy Days
i hear what you’re saying, DSB, but i believe stocks are priced for a 1.65-ish euro. any upside to the dollar is upside for stocks.
Just like Tuesday, we had very unimpressive advance/decline ratios for a +300 day.
Trends develop when breakouts start working.
I think behind the scenes, the Fed et al is doing everything they can to make this pig (market) look good (lipstick, rouge,…) but it’s just a matter of time until the 400 lb swine gets tired of this and dives back into the mudpit pigpen.
Calvino must be on vaca today.
Short oil – long financials – for awhile – does not matter if it is a bear market rally.
These fucking communists better put on a good fucking show tonight. I mean I want to see fucking swords with lasers and shit chopped up. I want to see Mr. Miagi rise again and fucking fireworks like none have seen before. I want a live fucking dragon coming out of the fucking ocean. I want it all and I want the government to take from everyone so I can see it. Fuckers, I knew long FXP would be a very bad omen into today and I was stopped out very early at 83.10. I re-entered at the end of the day but expect to be chopped to pieces by a kung fu tai chi master come Monday. However, I plan to unleash rabid dogs at that time from the DPRK which will eliminate any existance of Chairwoman Mao. By the way I took a stroll over to the Merc today and decided not to piss on the wall with the other homeless and instead into the river hoping to appease the trading gods. We will see, all I can say is right now this is one fucked up puppy of a market that is being manipulated by men such as T Boone and Oil Barrel Bolling. Off to cop a walk while drinking a 40 of OE. Enjoy the show.
Sincerely fuck you,
Gappingandyapping
You might want to consider that the average bear market rally lasts about 40 or so days and tacks on 15%. Continuing to short until we’ve at least come close to those marks doesn’t seem to have very good odds of success, well unless you are going to short commodities.
Hey Gary. It’s nice to see someone who knows what the hell he’s talking about around here (except for Shed, he’s solid as he can read the tea leaves, like me). So, in your guestimation, given the surge today into the close, do you expect that Monday will be up?
Junk
Buzz off bugger.
Gary:
I put zero credence into statistics like that. The situations are always different and there are far too many variables.
However, let’s use you “common sense”:
So, in order to have a decent set up, I am to wait 40 days or 15%.
Well, next Friday will represent the 30th day and the markets are up approx. 10%, from the lows.
Now, if your time horizon is 10 days or 5%, give or take, your reasoning makes sense. However, if this is nothing more than a bull in a bear, I deem this strength as an optimal opportunity to sell, over the next 10 days.
Another 5% from here is not much. Moreover, the amount of potential downside, in my estimation, outweighs the greed of pushing my luck here, buying the Dow, following a 1,000 point surge.
Remember how many 1,000 point surges have failed, thus far.
Finally, the pull back in crude is seasonal and normal. Crude stabilizing at $100 is NOT a boon for the economy. As a matter of fact, it is pretty darn harsh.
We’ve been beaten to a pulp from the crude players so badly that we actually think $115 is good.
So sad.
Getting long with Vix this low is suicidal. But, I will buy some stupid longs because these bear rallies are fierce. I hope those longs go red.
Anyway, shorting airlines and everything else when the Vix is under 20.
Fly, I haven’t checked the volume yet, but aren’t a lot of traders on vacation this month? Maybe that’s why this market rallies so easily. I know you’re not into charts, but I got one for all the oil-non-believers this weekend.
=gio=
Everyone is on vaca.
Remember, big money comes back in September.
Gary’s scenario may well play out, due to the timing of summer ending. However, all I know is, this market will get mud stomped come September.
It will be my grandest finale yet, even better than my late December-early January market calls.
Gio, please check the chart of VIX vs. the market averages for the past year – VIX down – market up! VIX up – market down! The Vix has spiked 5 times going back to last August – it is now in a calming down period and “The Fly”‘s timing is right on – the VIX should be on the rise in a few more weeks and the market should be a bear again.