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Paint By Numbers TA

I have a few indicators that I consider my gold standard. These indicators have proven to be reliable over long timeframes. They are slow moving and are never wrong for very long.

Markets swooned fast and hard but zooming out gives us a better idea of what these large moves mean. Where are the current prices in relation to the 200 DMA? This gives us some grounding on risk reward going forward.

BTC went parabolic from 12k to 64k hitting the overbought red line multiple times.

As BTC formed a topping pattern on the daily cloud (chart below) it created a bearish TK cross on May 3rd at $53k before diving into the cloud to signal uncertainty and finally confirming support breakdown and bear mode at 44k. BTC needs 48k to regain bullish trend (price back above cloud).

On May 11 BTC price dove into the cloud to close under 50k.

I signaled this breakdown with:

When ETH broke above $2800 I declared it was now leading the market. Similar to 2018 ETH peaked ~4 weeks after BTC.

Despite a 50% correction ETH still hasn’t touched it’s 200 DMA. The 200 DMA acts as a magnet at all times on price. For this reason I suspect the market has more downside as ETH is the the current bellwether.

The counter to this is that ETH found support on the top of the daily cloud. However, to maintain bullish trend price must STAY above cloud which would mean ETH $3300 by July. Watch for any breakdown of ETH into the cloud as an omen the entire market has further downside near term.

Greed is a powerful drug. I broke some of my trading rules and went light on my sells into the height of the bull. It’s a lesson to learn. Unfortunately I’ve learned it more than once! As usual, I find my personal guru Jesse Livermore had the right answer all along.

When someone asks me about trading I tell them to pick 1-2 indicators and a single timeframe and trade it like a robot. It’s harder to do than it sounds.

There is a lot of news in the markets I’m not going to cover. Stick to the daily charts and be patient. I don’t think Crypto is out of the woods yet.

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Real World NFT Use Case

NFT, aka Non Fungible Token, has been a hot topic in the markets recently.

An NFT provides 1) proof that a digital item is unique 2) a chain of ownership. There are a lot of resources about NFT and how they work. I won’t go into the details. Here’s a story from The New York Times about Beeple selling a piece for $69M.

Like most things in Crypto NFTs are not well understood. The hype gets ahead of the reality.

Here’s a simple real world use case for NFTs and how they can facilitate transactions in billion dollar industries.

Respawn Entertainment, owned by Electronic Arts, has made $1B on a game called Apex Legends that is 100% free to download and play. Respawn’s revenue originates from an in game market where players can buy unique items for their characters: cosmetic weapons and outfits. Example below:

Another example of in game cosmetics that creates revenue for developers is the quest for Hats in Team Fortress.

Each of these in-game cosmetic items could be an NFT. That NFT could then be traded between players in the store via auction or via set prices with Respawn taking a cut of each resale. Some of these cosmetics were time limited meaning they can no longer be obtained unless purchased from another player. Respawn currently has no way for users to trade cosmetics. An NFT based user to user store is instant additional revenue for Respawn.

Notice in the screen shot the items are priced in a currency called “Apex tokens”. Here’s the alternative:

What is a Duro you may ask? It’s simply a denomination of 500 Satoshis of BSV. It creates a new Unit of Account for Bitcoin SV that can facilitate transactions. Best of all it’s not a second layer on top of BSV or a new token. A Duro is purely a Unit of Account.

Why would using Duros or BSV appeal to Electronic Arts from a business standpoint? A store based on NFTs and a set in stone protocol like BSV is a build once and replicate many times scenario. BSV is simply a protocol for exchange of value that has nearly zero fees, unsurpassed reliability, instant transactions and unbounded scale. Any gaming company that incorporates BSV as a platform for their in game stores leverages a battle worn protocol they can use across all platforms and all games.

There is a game in beta that will be using BSV exclusively. It’s called CryptoFights. The website is awful, which is a shame, but the idea is groundbreaking and something to watch.

So why not use Ethereum? Two words: Crypto Kitties. In 2017 a project called Crypto Kitties was launched on Ethereum and the traffic clogged the ETH network and spiked fees. Four years later and Ethereum fees are near $30. ETH does not scale.

As I wrote back in August of 2020: BSV Scales or It Dies. No coin is going to be usable on a global scale without scaling with low fees. BSV is the only coin that scales with fees under 1 cent.

I find it incredible that the market continues to miss the big picture. I consider this an opportunity for those who can see what’s important and invest accordingly. Can you see the Forest through the Trees?

 

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Y’all a bunch of Shitcoiners

I leave for a few months and this place turns into iBankShitcoins.

Catching up on a few posts I see the slinging of true garbage with due diligence along the lines of “Some of them even have a working website”.

It’s not hard to bank coin on Shitcoins. I get it. Here is a mock portfolio I put together on March 8th.

I’ve watched the market lose it’s damn mind pumping BTC to over $60k and the BTCBSV ratio touched over 300:1

Incredible. I didn’t see that happening. To say I’ve been salty is an understatement.

Has this changed my investment thesis on BSV? No.

But my timing has been awful. I’m ahead of the market and I lost out on some major opportunities. It all means nothing now.

So here we are, MARKETS IN TURMOIL.

Will we have a 2018 style crash or a deep dip and resume moon lambo time?

I don’t know, but I’ll point to a few things to watch.

BTC fees are $50 and rising.

There is a crisis hitting BTC hashpower as a coal factory in China exploded.

I know it sucks to have to think through a problem but …

Enjoy the Shitcoin profits but FFS put aside some funds in something with staying power you degenerates.

 

 

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FATF ruins Thanksgiving

Crypto swoons on rumors about this tweet from Coinbase CEO Brain Armstrong:

The Financial Action Task Force may be imposing Travel Rule regulations sooner than later. This could mean a lot of things but the short version is in addition to KYC you may need to show proof of funds on HOW you acquired any crypto you already own. That will be a mess, but it’s not so different than traditional finance regulations. The catch is, imho, it’s easier to hoodwink fiat institutions than to fool anyone about how you acquired your coins on a publicly auditable global ledger. But that’s only an issue for those with something to hide.

For the technical folks, I imagine you may be required to register a KYC linked pubkey with your exchange. Then you will only be able to withdraw to addresses generated from the pubkey. You’ll be legally compliant but the tradeoff is you are fully visible to the exchange and likely the IRS.

Again, this isn’t so different from banks.

Worst case is laid out by Ian Grigg here:

The above scenario is much more draconian. The Travel Rule potentially forks Crypto and taints any coins that are not cleared by exchanges. Owning your own keys becomes criminal. This probably won’t happen but no one knows.

Many BSV wallets already include the ability to sign transactions and/or prove identities. Example:

 

This embedded KYC feature is simple but surprisingly novel in today’s crypto world because most Coin value propositions include avoiding banks, taxes and government oversight. Reality is often disappointing and I think a lot of crypto is about to be very disappointed.

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On Second Thought, FUCK OFF

Good Thursday to you all, even the haters.

As a follow up to Allow Myself to Defend Myself….

This is another BSV focused Op-Ed. Please direct all complaints to flybroker AT gmail dot com

Today I have been introduced to yet another peak at the future running exclusively on BSV. It’s called baemail and it’s a BSV web email client that inscribes emails on the BSV blockchain for a fee.

I’m not going to describe the screenshot, should be self explanatory. A few years ago a company called 21co attempted a similar project and was blessed immediately with a huge valuation. Their promise was to protect your email inbox from spam by requiring others to pay small fees to email you. Less than a year later they completely changed their business plan to be earn.com and sold their user’s emails database to the highest bidder (That last part may not be true, just my assumption based on their about face and money problems). But I digress.

What do I think of baemail? I think it’s basic. Has no chance of massive adoption. Likely to fail. That’s not what’s important here. Follow along.

Another interesting project: weiblock.app This is the Chinese clone of twetch.app. Basically a Twitter clone where every action is a microtransaction on BSV. A BSV powered social media platform focused on Chinese market is pretty huge. In all likelihood it will fail but the lessons here are important.

You have to have perspective. These are exciting times.

Over time the more of these projects the better. Iterations are key. Look at how many dotcoms failed. Most of them.

The dotcoms that succeeded have made the Internet the behemoth that it is today.

BSV is the future. Weiblock, Twetch, Paymail, Moneybutton etc are all in the infancy stage of the next generation Internet.

It’s called MetaNet and within a few years businesses will be adapting to run on top of MetaNet. MetaNet runs on top of BSV.

Also, FYI, I am from the fucking future.

Let the hatemail flow.

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Up In A Down Market

BSV is ripping higher breaking $100 again and approaching previous local highs. If $120 is taken out next target is $160. This is in a crypto market that is being slaughtered. As I’ve been posting for a few weeks it’s BSV or nothing. I expect the entire crypto market cap to be rolled up into BSV. If not, Crypto is dead.

We have begun the endgame now.

Here’s some calls I made on Twitter and other random highlights:

There’s been a battle between BSV and BAB both of which were born during the hashwar over BCH. Here’s the “Mission Accomplished” BAB moment where they declared victory November 15. Since then BSV has passed BAB in price.

To add insult to injury, there is now a lawsuit announced to sue several companies and individuals for the actions described in this video. I don’t think the lawsuit will go very far but it’s definitely a pain for those named.

Update: TRUE. BSV broke out at .65 and is now > BAB. 70% gain in < 2 days once .65 was broken. Chart below:

Thread below comparing dot com to crypto. I have survived both. This capitulation is a recalibration. This is when you can make real money.

Excellent podcast where Daniel Krawisz corrects the hosts many times as to how Bitcoin works.

Below is a video by Hayden Otto who runs a site called Coinspice. He’s been pro BAB from the start. If you followed his advice 14 days ago you are down over 83%. In an earlier blog post on iBC I recommended doing the opposite. I hope you listened to me and not Hayden.

Throwback to CNBC covering Bitcoin breaking $100 in 2013. This is Bitcoin’s “what is internet” moment. Bitcoin is breaking above $100 again under BSV. This is a gift.

Just for fun, here’s a call on SPY.

How do I survive these forks? How does it work that BSV is at $100 and I’m happy about it. When BCH split from BTC I sold my BTC for BCH at 10:1 ratio. When BSV and BCH split I sold BAB for BSV at 4:1 ratio. So while the price is at $100 I have 40x as many coins. If we have a bull run in BSV …well, you get the idea.

BSV investing is like the quote below. One by one men will recover their senses.

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Enjoying A Crypto Melt Up

Things are good in Crypto land. I’ve managed a return that would shame billion dollar money managers for their entire career in the past two weeks. I’ve enjoyed egregious gains and catastrophic drawdowns since my first Bitcoin purchase at $13. It’s been a wild ride. Were I not in early enough and had weathered the dot com collapse I may not have made it this far. Truth be told, I was built for this.

Feel free to ignore the 80% drawdown suffered from the highs in December, that’s just going to be a speed bump on the chart in 2020. Perspective gentlemen. Don’t ever lose it.

I am watching in awe as EOS FOMOs out of control. Up 27% in 24 hours. It’s beautiful. Let’s look a little deeper.

I have been an EOS holder since day one back in summer of 2017. I weathered that nasty downturn to ~50 cents on an ill conceived FOMO buy over $3.00. Now I am sitting on a stack of vaporware tokens valued at over $14.50. These are amazing times we live in. Let’s call it a 4x gain in a year for easy math purposes.

What to do now? Well, taking profit here seems a no brainer. Take the money and run! If I’ve learned anything it’s that GREED ruins my portfolio more than anything else. It’s the bane of my existence. My personal kryptonite. And EOS is due for a pullback.

Truth be told I understand EOS even less now than when I purchased it initially. It’s morphed into a beast. It’s promising high transaction speeds, a revamped ICO market, easy access to new projects with automatic airdrops and a governance system that addresses many flaws in other systems. It’s all from the brain of Dan Larimer who has an impressive list of accomplishments in Crypto projects.

So a profit here, while seemingly sane and prudent, may be the worst move. It may also mean suffering an intermediate 50% drawdown of course as gravity takes effect. No chart stays vertical. But if EOS does take over the ICO market, proves a fast/scalable platform for decentralized apps and shows the crypto world the way to implement a fair governance system then the EOS run of 2018 may make ETH look rather pedestrian by comparison.

In my risk/reward calculations it’s an easy choice. Greed is good.

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Everyone is a Bitcoin Expert

Bitcoin breaks $15,000 and everyone is an expert. It’s amazing how that happens. I wonder where all these experts were when I recommended it last Summer. I look forward to you all sharing your wealth of information and insights based on the CNBC article you just read.

Moments ago I received a call from a friend saying he was introduced to a Crypto opportunity where he makes money whether the price goes up or down! Well that sounds amazing. I am deleting my blog and twitter asap and sending him all my money to manage.

So, here’s the list of posts you can read before I delete everything. Limited time only. The experts are here. I’ll just let them take me the rest of the way.

Sept 8 2016 Bitcoin vs Gold  (BTC was $630 when this was posted)

Sept 19 2016 Man sells house for Litecoin (LTC was $4 then, it hit $200 today)

Nov 7 2016 Calling the $1,000 roll when Bitcoin passed $750

Dec 6 2016 – Final Warning to buy under $1000

I think you get the idea.

Fly has hinted at a Crypto Bootcamp. What do you guys think? Tell Fly if you want this or if you’re content to coast on the what Brian Kelley and Jim Cramer tell you. I’m just a guy who’s been publicly calling the shot for over a year, what the fuck do I know?

 

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10 reasons Trump will win

Elections are like Baseball. It only gets interesting when the playoffs start.

Here’s why Trump will win:

1) Russia. What the fuck are we doing? The voters are tired of the US being the world’s policeman. Trump may be a nut but he’s a nut focused inwardly on our problems vs ginning up some drama with Putin. Focusing inward is the best domestic and foreign policy by any POTUS or candidate in the past 30 years. Make America Great Again (except with less racism involved).

2) The Fed. Trump has called them out. He may crash western finance as we know it once in office but it was going to happen anyway. At least he’d be a POTUS dealing with reality vs fiction.

3) Trump is what he is. He’s a xenophobic billionaire womanizer. Who fucking cares. We all have flaws. He’s owned most of his crap and it’s only made him more relatable. It makes him trustworthy by comparison that his cards are on the table.

4) Polls showed Brexit would fail because it was impolite dinner conversation but when in the privacy of a voting booth people pulled the lever that was anti-establishment. I think we’ll see a lot of that in November and it’s not measured in pre election polls.

5) Trump will get more of the woman and minority vote than people are predicting. People are more willing to take the bad with the good than is estimated.

6) “Anything but this” syndrome. The public are so fed up they’ll take a sharp stick in the eye to avoid continuing to get reamed up the ass. The issues may not matter to them, they just want “different”. On some level they know they are voting for a revolution. Consider he’s the least worst candidate.

7) He’s a billionaire and yet he can still get more connected to Middle America than HRC, even if he’s tweeting ad hominem attacks from this gold toilet bowl at 3AM. You may not like what he’s saying but you can get why he’s saying it.

8) He’s survived more attacks than any candidate ever. He’s the fucking honey badger of POTUS election cycles.

9) Trump didn’t cheat Bernie Sanders out of his shot to be the nominee.

10) He’s an American success story. He may have had a leg up and acted like a dick but he’s a billionaire and that draws people in. It says nothing about him being suited for political office but a successful outsider appeals more than an ineffective career politician.

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