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Bitcoin Court Case Settlement

There is a court document circulating online that indicates there may soon be a settlement in the Ira Kleiman v Craig S Wright court case.

Ira Kleiman is suing Craig S Wright for 500k Bitcoins claiming his deceased brother Dave was part of the creation of Bitcoin and that Craig S Wright owes Ira half of a Bitcoin trust established prior to Dave’s death. Document below.

What are the implications of a settlement?

First, in a settlement Craig Wright would deliver up to 500k Bitcoins valued at ~$5B. Upon receipt Ira would owe estate taxes on the value received. This would force a sale from Ira of at least 100k Bitcoins and upwards of 250k on the market to cover taxes. Even if completed over the counter this would impact price of BTC quite heavily.

Secondly, many BTC holders have claimed Craig Wright is not Satoshi and does not have access to the coins. If Craig settles and agrees to pay Ira from the Satoshi stash of coins then the BTC narrative about Bitcoin takes a big hit. While BTC has been screaming for Craig to provide proof they may finally get it when he moves those coins. Be careful what you wish for. I don’t see this as a net positive for BTC yet many people are cheering the settlement as it’s a judgement against Craig. They are cutting off their own nose to spite their face. Craig Wright settling and moving the Satoshi coins provides credibility regarding everything he’s said over the years including how to scale Bitcoin, which is in contradiction with BTC.

In reality there was no way for Craig Wright to get the full value of his alleged 1.1M BTC holdings. To sell that many coins would crash the market, so losing a portion may not be so tragic for him.

Third, settling the case puts a lot of drama and stress behind Craig Wright and BSV. It clears the way to continue developing BSV. The drama will continue but the fact Craig Wright moved the coins cannot be taken away.

As mentioned, moving the Satoshi coins as part of settlement is one way a person can prove their identity (or at least possession of coins attached to an identity). If Craig moves the Satoshi coins watch the BTC narrative change overnight. There will be claims that moving the coins is no longer proof Craig is the creator of Bitcoin. The existence of Blockstream and BTC hinges on discrediting Craig Wright and his vision on how to scale Bitcoin. Watch the space for new propaganda campaigns. The propaganda shows the level of fear present for those who took BTC in such a drastic direction that Bitcoin forked twice. This is all coming home to roost now and in 2020.

Settling a court case for a $5 billion judgement is usually bad news. In this case I think this will end up being a positive. The drama fades away, the proof is made public, the markets are free to digest the pending movements of massive amounts of BTC and we can know move forward with new information about who’s who in Bitcoin.

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Assessing My Next Move

BSV is under the $130 level I pointed to as important to watch. BSV is a buy here, but don’t shit your pantaloons if the downward trend accelerates and BSV sits at $80 for a few weeks. Crypto trading is a bad idea. You probably shouldn’t do it.

Bitcoin trading changes you. The swings are frequent and violent. The returns and losses are mind boggling. You’re just not the same after going to the movies and walking out of the theater with a 100% profit and by the time you get home a 30% loss.

You don’t get used to it, you just go numb.

So as I consider my next move I see broken markets everywhere. Gold just went on a bender. Yemens bombing Saudi Arabia points to a Oil pump. The dollar is destroying everything. QE to infinity has stocks on a 10 year straight line pump.

This all has to resolve itself somehow.

Crypto might just be the sanest choice in a crazy world.

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I’m Listening

What do you want me to write about? You pick and I’ll give it an objective treatment. Maybe not a full SWOT but I’ll at least cover Pros and Cons.

Do you have questions? Ask me anything in comments. If it deserves a separate post I’ll do that.

It doesn’t have to be crypto but that’s my wheelhouse. You may not know this but I covered stocks and a bit of tech on iBC before I went full Bitcoin years ago. I also do quite a bit of TA. I stopped doing TA on Crypto as I can’t TA a coin if I feel the fundamentals are broken. It’s like putting lipstick on a pig.

So, give me something to work with.

My portfolio is sideways past couple weeks as I’m still irresponsibly allocated in BSV. I’m 70% confident BSV decouples from the crypto market in extreme bullish fashion in 2020 but in meantime won’t be shocked by a market wide swoon. $130 is still important level to watch which I noted weeks ago.

I am flying to Asia late tomorrow to vacation with a group of friends on a tropical island for a couple months. You know, typical Bitcoiner stuff. But don’t hate me too much, it’s a hellish 23 hours of flights and 11 timezones to reach my final destination. I am going to nearly the exact opposite side of the planet from where I am now so forgive any delays next couple of days.

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Bitcoin is Smart Money

When you hear the term Smart Money what comes to mind? For many, it’s institutional investors with privileged information pulling the strings on market movements. Smart Money consists of the insiders, the mythical perfect traders, that group of people that is always two steps ahead of the average Joe and one step ahead of you.

When I talk about Smart Money that’s not what I’m talking about.

When I talk about Smart Money I’m talking about Bitcoin. No, I’m not saying that Bitcoin is a group of people that is smarter than you. I’m saying that Bitcoin IS Smart Money.

What does that mean?

Human civilization has gone from a barter system to trading seashells, shiny rocks, tulip bulbs, precious metals and now, pieces of paper as money.

Future generations will look back at this time and think trading pieces of paper in exchange for goods is as silly as our ancestors trading seashells.

Our money today is dumb. Really dumb. The Pentagon lost over $1 trillion because they couldn’t keep track of where it went. Enron happens because the money is so dumb no one can verify if audited financials are reliable. Madoff was successful for so long because his clients had to rely on his fabricated statements about their investments. Financial crises in 2009 happen because Lehman and AIG can play fast and loose with financial regulations when using dumb money. Hurricane Maria funds for Puerto Rico were mostly squandered because local government had a windfall of relief money and little oversight. Terrorism happens because any organization can be funded anonymously with a few palettes of paper shipped across borders.

These events caused by the abuse of dumb money impact billions of people. Those who control money with little oversight act with impunity causing massive losses for the public, and they often get away with it.

What doesn’t get measured doesn’t get managed.

The US government prints dumb money every day to cover a multitude of poor decisions. There is no limit. They just print it. PRESTO! More money. An Econ 101 student understands Supply and Demand, so how dumb is that?!?

Every fraction of a Bitcoin that has and ever will come into existence is publicly verifiable. I can buy a coffee with Bitcoin with more privacy than if I use a credit card but I can’t transact in Bitcoin illegally with anonymity. This is very important to understand. Bitcoin is private, but not anonymous. Bitcoin is Smart Money.

So what is Smart Money? Bitcoin is programmable. Here’s a basic example in money terms. When you dine at a restaurant you are presented with a check to pay. That check has a breakdown of your meal plus taxes and usually an optional tip. With our current dumb money this puts a burden on the owner to account for taxes, tips etc. Small business owners spend thousands to be compliant with taxes. With Bitcoin your check can be a Bitcoin invoice where taxes (sales tax, municipal, alcohol tax etc) are their own Bitcoin payments separate from food and tips. Send your Bitcoin transaction and every tax, tip and payment gets paid instantly to the final destination. This relieves a huge burden for the owners and governments. This changes the game. Dumb money can’t do this.

Here’s another example. Many countries have lax or difficult to enforce clean air laws. Why spend money to ensure your car runs cleanly if you can externalize the costs to the environment and other humans? Why would chemical plants handle chemicals cleanly if they can dump it in the river? With programmable money clean behavior can be incentivized. Smart contracts on Bitcoin can meter and enforce compliance and/or fees. Dumb money can’t do this.

Many of the ills in society are because individuals or corporations can externalize costs with very little risk. Banks are routinely fined for different reasons yet they continue the unlawful behavior because in the long run dumb money covers their tracks enough times the occasional fine is not a deterrent. Bitcoin, as a distributed ledger, can keep all transactions in compliance. Dumb money can’t do this.

This works because every fraction of a Bitcoin can be instantly verified anytime. There is no “fake” Bitcoin and there is no way to move a Bitcoin that doesn’t leave a public record. Bitcoin is private, but not anonymous. Bitcoin is a global ledger.

Now imagine Bitcoin everywhere. Gas station, groceries, international shipping and trade. Smart Money that is programmable and instant. Tax relief that is immediate and automatic. Accountability that is public and global. The opportunity to commit fraud disappears. Honest Money means Honest Government. Smart Money means Smart(er) Government. Who doesn’t want to live in a country where the Government is just as accountable as the tax payers?

This is what mass adoption looks like as a world currency. Now, which coins fit this criteria? Scalable, honest, on chain.

Once you understand this capability and the impact you can see this system is inevitable. I can’t say exactly how this will look, and realistically this may take a decade or more, but there’s no going back.

Governments will love Bitcoin because it enables immediate and honest tax collection. Citizens will love Bitcoin because their governments will also be subject to immediate and honest reconciliation of tax spending. No more secret funding or government waste. Now, imagine that! This can change humanity.

A global ledger of value (and information) transfer is the next (r)evolution of human transactions.

Bitcoins is Smart Money.

This post first appeared on Coinspeak.io

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