Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:50am ESTComments Off on The Power of Money Button
If money is power then control of money is absolute power.
Give me control of a nation’s money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.
The power of the control of money allows major payment processors (and by extension governments that regulate processors) to curb free speech as evidenced by bans of Wikileaks, Gab and the deplatforming of content creators from YouTube, Twitter etc.
On a global basis the US uses economic sanctions to exercise power around the globe which is all enabled by the USD as the world’s reserve currency. The US can limit another nation’s ability to transact on the global banking system. Now that is power.
Any routing of funds through a third party makes a transaction subject to the laws of payment processors, governments or platform providers EUA.
How to solve this issue in our connected world?
Money Button is a digital currency payments button for websites and apps. Payments are nearly instant, nearly free, work everywhere in the world, and cannot be reversed or blocked. This is how money should be.
If you have a MoneyButton account you can simply drag the button from left to right and I will receive $1 in BSV nearly instantly with near zero fees. This cannot be stopped. This is an incredibly powerful tool built in just a few lines of code.
If you don’t have a MoneyButton account this button may appear gray. You can buy BSV and load your own MoneyButton account to enable MoneyButton anywhere on the Internet.
Now imagine MoneyButton on sites across the Internet. How many times have you been stopped by a paywall for an article you wanted to read but the prospect of handing over a credit card for a subscription wasn’t feasible? Or a site was so loaded with ads you lost patience before the site loaded? Or the site had so many popups you closed it out of frustration?
The content creator lost out. No wonder digital news sites are struggling. Any value they create is locked behind a byzantine and archaic payment system. Do I really need to input my credit card and address to read this editorial? That system doesn’t work.
The New York Times could easily add MoneyButton paywalls that are simple, secure and easy for users. This would turbo charge their revenue model. The valuable content would be rewarded and can be featured. Rewarding value changes the whole landscape of the web. It’s a Win/Win.
Simple, automatic, uncensorable microtransactions of value are the future of the Internet. MoneyButton is the leader in this field.
MoneyButton runs exclusively on top of Bitcoin SV. Due to this fact, you always control your own money.
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:26pm ESTComments Off on Crypto Will Die in 2020
There are over 2,100 coins listed on CoinMarketCap.com. This is the result of the greatest hype and speculation cycle in modern times.
I have been pondering how this clusterf*ck resolves itself. Coins, unlike companies, don’t go bankrupt. As long as a group of nerds is mining a coin in their basement that coin can survive. This means that hundreds of shitcoins can survive with minimal support/investment. Zombie coins are a barrier to resetting the hype cycle and narrowing the field to the few (or only) survivor of Crypto.
If coins don’t go bankrupt what will happen? They will be attacked. Bitcoin is a competitive system. Failed coins will be picked off by Bitcoin one by one. Their use case will be made obsolete by Bitcoin. Their users will be assimilated. Their transactions will move to Bitcoin. Bitcoin can do anything a shitcoin can and do it better, more securely and cheaper. Within a few years I expect there to be only a few coins and eventually, only one.
Failed dot coms went bankrupt.
Failed coins can't claim bankruptcy. Instead, they will be 51% attacked.
I also posted a lot of charts and forecasts that did not happen (*cough* $50 EOS *cough*) but overall, not too bad IMHO. I wish I traded as well as I forecasted, but such is life.
Now, onwards for 2019.
The SP500 will continue falling. This volatility is not a sign of a strong market experiencing a dip, it’s the algos rushing for the exits as orderly as possible. I expect a 50% retrace from the top after Q1 2019. Caveat is Trump goes full maniac mode, bypasses the Fed, and orders emergency measures to prop up the market. This will be uncharted territory and may cause extreme volatility but the market will still correct.
Zooming out a bit that 50% retrace takes SPY to the highs before the 2009 crisis. All those easy money gains erased. 50% is not a difficult call. The big question is will it stop there? pic.twitter.com/Q0iEahdf7z
Real Estate will correct. This is a general statement as local markets vary but if you live in a city start to take notice of the number of For Sale signs around your neighborhood. Are they increasing? Open Zillow and notice how many properties show recent price declines. That’s the early warning sign of a correction. During the 2009 crisis banks bought distressed real estate with free government money and held that real estate off market. This caused a building boom and prices increased due to reduced supply. Now inventory has caught up, free money has tightened … yet prices remain hopelessly out of reach for millenials. Rents in Southern California have doubled in a few years. $3,000/month rent for 800SF condos is not uncommon. $600+ per SF sales prices in urban walkable neighborhoods are normal. These are not typos.
Generally speaking, most prospective homeowners can afford to finance a property that costs between 2 and 2.5 times their gross income. Under this formula, a person earning $100,000 per year can afford a mortgage of $200,000 to $250,000.
Yet many 700SF condos in Southern California are selling for $400k+. Are those 700SF condo owners making $200k/year? I think not. We are back in a bubble in San Diego and many other areas.
Another example of the financial fantasy we live in today is $12 avocado toast. Two pieces of bread with an avocado for $12 on credit cards with 24% interest rates and a $500 BMW payment on a $50k salary is par for the course for many under 30. We learned nothing from the 2009 crisis. This cannot end well but let’s hope it ends soon. But in the meantime, #YOLO.
Urban San Francisco is a dystopian nightmare yet has the highest real estate prices in the Country. This will end. LA, NY, Orange County, New York and parts of Chicago will all go through the natural downswing after a decade long boom. This starts in 2019 and gains steam for several years. Great deals will be available in 2022 and beyond.
Trump will finish his first term and will not run for a second term. The Mueller investigation is a bust.
Let’s be straight here, winning the election was the worst thing that ever happened to Trump. Trump doesn’t enjoy being President. Look at his life pre politics: being a billionaire with near zero accountability and semi celebrity status with freedom to grope beauty contestants to now being under the microscope trapped in the White House with nothing but Fox News and Twitter. Trump wouldn’t admit that winning was bad for him but it definitely is a sour situation for himself and his family. The fact Trump won shows the sorry state of American politics.
So who could win a Presidential election? I would bet on a popular non politician. I know nothing about Dwayne The Rock Johnson’s political ideals, US citizen status or experience but his likability, outsider status and lack of scandal may have made him a formidable candidate. It worked for Ronald Reagan. Will he make a run? If not, could we have President Kanye West? At this point in the post Trump era anything is possible.
I believe career politicians have an uphill battle for President. The system is broken. It’s us vs them.
The founding fathers expected political offices to be held by esteemed members of the community. Their ideal of government was a combination of experts from various backgrounds doing the will of the people for a limited time before rejoining society. This system worked well for a long time but unfortunately it is no longer the system we have today. US government is now crony capitalism where power is brokered daily and an entrenched incumbent can trade political favor for self enrichment. The US system needs a shakeup. It will either be a decade long movement or a violent upheaval. Timeframe unknown.
Holding hunks of shiny metal may be a sane choice in an insane world. I’ve held precious metals in the past as a hedge but they are really for the extreme worst case scenarios. The goldbugs are a unique group. I can sympathize but I can’t say I’m one of them. The only people more out there than goldbugs are the crypto crowd which I will get to next.
Gold may break the recent highs of mid 1300’s but I don’t think a new all time high will happen in next 5 years. Gold is a fax machine in an email world. The characteristics of gold overlap with the characteristics of crypto except crypto is also easily divisible and easy to send anywhere for free. Advantage: crypto.
I sold my precious metals a few years ago for crypto. If I still held metals I’d do the same today. If you can afford a couple sleeves of gold eagles of even a few bars of shiny gold in a safe, knock yourself out. You’ll be hedged against disaster. However, if we resort to exchanging hunks of metal for goods and services we’ll have bigger problems to address than choosing the best performing asset class.
Here’s a video of Peter Schiff vs Erik Voorhees debating Bitcoin vs Gold.
It seems every week, month, year is a critical time for Crypto. Any technology or revolutionary movement is most vulnerable in its formative stages. Bitcoin just hit it’s 10 year anniversary this month. Bitcoin is still a infant as an asset class.
Crypto is at a make or break point. After an extreme hype cycle and gross misallocation of resources and funds Crypto is facing a do or die scenario in 2019.
Here’s my viewpoint and why I think every other forecast for Crypto I’ve read so far is complete junk.
Most forecasts will focus on BTC, ETH, EOS, XRP and maybe they will mention LTC, XLM or XMR. Insert other random coins as needed. Most of them will not address Bitcoin SV (BSV).
You can throw all of those forecasts in the garbage. They are worthless. None of those projects are addressing scalability in a realistic fashion. In fact, many of those projects are now openly discussing Proof of Stake or centralization as a solution. This is ironic given Bitcoin, the foundation of all things crypto, was designed to be decentralized peer to peer and based on Proof of Work.
The coin to watch is BSV. The BSV roadmap is the only coin that includes decentralization, proof of work and scalability. BSV has many challenges to overcome and I’m more skeptical now than I’ve been in the past but it’s still the only game in town. The goal is that BSV is adopted as a currency / commodity ledger by commercial and or government by 2020. That’s what matters in Crypto. Scalability and adoption. Everything else, and I mean EVERYTHING ELSE, is a sideshow.
A post explaining the details of BSV would be very long. I’ve written about BSV here, here, here and here. It’s BSV or bust.
Those are my predictions for 2019. Let’s see how they play out.