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BSV Analysis

Caveats: This is not financial advice. Risk management is key to long term success.

BSV has begun to decouple from BTC but has not broken free yet. The BSV chart is less than a year old and therefore using TA can be difficult and unreliable given volatility and limited history. Technicals have not fully digested fundamentals yet. However, the technical view is beginning to gain clarity.

Trigger warning for BTC fans: fundamentally, BSV is superior to BTC in every way. The market is slowly catching on. Look for the charts to reflect this over the next year.

For fundamentals look at bitcoinblocks.live and coin.dance. Both sites tell the story of BSV growing in transactions and the current disparity in price.

Taking the data from coin.dance and using it to calculate the Fair Market Value price of BTC, BCH and BSV we come up this custom price model:

In the model above I am using hash, transactions and blocksize as three key metrics for arriving at Fair Market Value.

During the past 30 days BSV has been in the 40-50% range in percent of overall transactions and block size measured against BTC and BCH yet has a very small percent of overall hash . If we adjust the market prices to reflect the data from coin.dance we have new FMV prices.

If we accept this premise, given today’s metrics BSV is undervalued by 25x! This represent the investment opportunity at hand in BSV.

As transaction and blocksize metrics continue to tip more in BSV’s favor, which is likely as more data is being stored on BSV via apps like WeatherSV, Preev and a new Air Quality tool, the miners will be forced to move hash to BSV to be competitive. This movement of hash will be the confirmation of a massive shift from BTC to BSV. The setup for this shift in hash is in motion and gaining steam but is not yet fully recognized by the market.

Being ahead of this move in BSV may be the investment of the decade.

Below is a link to this content posted on the BSV blockchain. The same content above is free. There is a $1 moneybutton paywall to get the TA section via the link below.


I am paywalling some info on BSV not to make money but to show the power of BSV and encourage anyone on the fence to start using BSV instead of reading about it. Skin in the game.

A position is not an opinion. An opinion is not a position.
-Jesse Livermore

If you really want to read the TA let me know in comments. I may make it available here for free after a week has passed.



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Crypto is 99% Noise

Learn to be indifferent to what makes no difference.
-Marcus Aurelius

In this post we will take a look at how to identify noise vs signal in Crypto.

A signal has credibility while noise begs for attention. Signals whisper to the tribe while noise promotes itself. A signal will cause you to take initiatives while noise will want you to join the cause.

An easy way to identify signal vs noise is signal requires you to think. Signal has substance. Signal is challenging. Signal isn’t easy.

Noise is like junk food. Noise is designed to trigger a dopamine response. Noise is emotional. Noise is simple. Noise is repetitive.

Crypto is noise. BSV is signal.

Put another way….

In 2009 there was only Bitcoin. Since then over 2,000 coins were released and Crypto peaked at a market cap just under 1 Trillion dollars. Today the market cap for all of Crypto is less than 250B. The classic market bubble and correction.

After a bubble pops the only survivors are those that prove themselves economically viable.

Keep your eye on what emerges over the next year. Noise will kill your portfolio. Sometimes popular well known personalities show they built their following broadcasting noise. Here is an example this week:

Tone Vays charges $2,400 an hour. Ok, fair play if you can get it. But then he says:

Tone Vays charges $2,400/hour and then states “I honestly don’t know ANY facts because I never bothered”. This is a noise maker in an echo chamber. He has 193,000 followers on Twitter and is teaching others how to invest.

Here’s a LITERAL noise maker. A Craig Wright heckler from this week’s CC Forum.

This screeching attack is an example of the current conversation in BSV/BTC. I am exhausted engaging with the anti-BSV crowd. It’s no longer a debate it’s wrestling a pig. You both get dirty but the pig likes it.

Enter the Hopium Dealers

There is no shortage of hopium dealers dishing out forecasts of six figure BTC. Many of these “analysts” have 50k+ followers on Twitter. Take a moment to see if these Nostradamus wannabes ever address the fundamentals behind their charts. You’ll see it’s speculation based on new money entering or the halvening causing a doubling of their HODL stash. It’s noise and many fall for it.

Meanwhile, the signal is that BTC has been a zombie coin for over a year. You wouldn’t know this from the talking heads on CNBC but you have to remember, CNBC makes money by amplifying noise.

Also be wary of BSV noisemakers. There are many of them.

The most valuable thing I learned in Crypto is I don’t know anything. Early in my Bitcoin journey I believed that Nick Szabo was the father of Bitcoin. It was only once I realized I knew nothing I could research for truth. It wasn’t easy letting go of what I “knew”.

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, in the expert’s mind there are few.”
-Shunryu Suzuki

Most self identified crypto traders are stuck in their Szabo/Lightning/altcoin phase. They stop learning. They dig in. They identify with a camp and relentlessly attack anyone who disagrees. It’s primal tribalism via the Internet broadcast on Twitter 24/7.

If you aren’t with us, you’re against us.

The majority of Crypto investors are disconnected from reality. Scaling matters. Economics matter. Business matters. Law matters. Governments matter. The Bitcoin Whitepaper matters. This is signal.

Twitter polls don’t matter. This is noise.

In the past year I’ve learned more about Bitcoin than I had in the previous five years. It is crucial that you filter noise. If you can’t filter noise then you’ll start believing noise IS signal. You’ll stop learning just like Tone Vays. You’ll fall behind. You’ll get rekt.

What you know can be dangerous if it keeps you from learning. I’m not ashamed that I had it wrong regarding Szabo. I hadn’t learned to filter noise. What’s shameful is to shut down your brain and live for attacking people that disagree with your view. Seek and value truth above all else, including your ego.

The noise will eventually fade in crypto and only signal will be left. That signal is BSV.

What I consider to be truth now may change in the future. That’s OK. It’s called learning.

I will endeavor to have my future content focus on signal.


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As Q4 gains steam I looked back at my 2019 predictions. In hindsight, I could have been more specific with my targets but overall I’d grade myself a B-. S&P can still correct, real estate is getting soft, Gold pumped then retraced, Mueller was a nothing burger, Crypto is a still a mess.

The BSV CG conference last week in S Korea provided a lot of information to digest. There was over 14 hours of video to watch. Here are the links to the videos:


Day 1 content is aimed at developers. There is a table of contents in the vid description. I recommend watching Dr Craig Wright at the 6:37 mark. Dr Wright speaks about Payment Channels which is tech that can be applied to markets everywhere. Think decentralized, secure and publicly auditable NASDAQs and commodity markets with honest brokers. Schwab has commission free trading. BSV will have commission free everything.

Day 2 has more accessible content for the layman. Threshold signatures and the identity service by Pixel Wallet look VERY promising for providing unique and valuable use cases. Again, recommend watching Dr Wright’s keynote to close out day 2.

Something to note, a week after the conference, the day 2 video has less than 4,400 views. It’s still very early in Bitcoin.

As I noted in “Assessing my Next Move“:

BSV is under the $130 level I pointed to as important to watch. BSV is a buy here, but don’t shit your pantaloons if the downward trend accelerates and BSV sits at $80 for a few weeks. Crypto trading is a bad idea. You probably shouldn’t do it.

BSV visited the low 80’s as the market swooned. If you’re not in BSV now, I’d look for the $100 roll to enter on a trade. This one day pump above $90 could be wiped out quickly. If you are setting yourself up for a position before the fireworks in 2020 then any entry before January is likely good.

The entire crypto market cap is ~230 billion. BSV market cap is 1.5B. BSV is less than 1% of the total market cap. I have never seen a more lopsided investment opportunity. The market is extremely irrational but starting to wake up. Only one coins is addressing scaling in a way that provides a path for mass adoption. Scale or die.

Here’s a simple example on scaling, an application called WeatherSV began posting weather data onchain to BSV a few months ago. WeatherSV was roundly dismissed as a gimmick to support a dying chain. Fast forward to today and Preev is now posting market data onchain. The result is BSV is reliably producing larger blocks with more transactions than BTC from two real world applications. What will the doubters say when there are dozens, hundreds or even thousands of apps storing data on BSV?

Given this oversimplified chart I created:

Bitcoin is an economic system. High transaction volume and low fees equal secure and antifragile money with high utility.

Meanwhile in BTC, the Blockstream CSO was interviewed:

Blockstream is going full steam ahead betting the future of BTC on Lightning Network as they debate making the blocksize smaller and potentially inflating supply to pay the developers. You can’t make this stuff up.

While I leave open the possibility I could be wrong as each day passes it looks like BTC digs their hole deeper and deeper.

The debate rages on in Crypto. Frankly, I’m very tired of it. What is happening in reality is BSV is scaling while the others delay. Let the Twitter wars rage, I am looking at what matters.

Looking forward, the 30 day extension in the Kleiman v Wright court case to negotiate a settlement should be expiring soon. This could be a big event. And, in January 2020 allegedly Dr Wright will come into possession of up to 800,000 BTC which he has previously stated would be exchanged for BSV. Even if both of these events are a bust BSV continues to scale on chain.

Scaling is what matters. BSV is scaling.

BSV is an incredible (but not risk free) opportunity.


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