Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:52pm ESTComments Off on Keep an Eye on Oil Exploration
Once an oil man, always an oil man, until I am told otherwise by our Chief Market Strategist. With shippers ripping the cover off the ball today, I see no sector pairing better with the action than oil exploration.
I’m currently long MHR but END is the biggest winner thus far today. It is also the stock with the highest combustible energy (short float). Shorts will point to management incompetency and fallacious oil discoveries. I’ll point to the price chart—it is going higher in the face of these intelligent misfits whose knowledge base may be better suited for building doomsday shelters.
That being said, END is coming into resistance at six bucks. Watch it. Keep it on a wish list and see how it behaves at these levels. Supply (sell flow) should stall price out. Should it not, should short covering instead ignite a rally, END could become an eight dollar stock in short order. That leaves room for over 30% in gains for the mathematically challenged.
I cashed out my END shares a few weeks back. I threw in the towel a tad too soon, booked five percent and went on my way. Therefore my own pride pushed my buy trigger over to MHR.
Keep the space on watch, especially if oil firms up.
Other tickers of interest include: BBG, BCEI, BRY, CAK, CEO, CXO, EGY, FANG, GST, KWK, KOG, NBL, PBR, and FST
Pull up daily and 30 minute charts of EGLE, GMCR, ACTV, and END and you will see beautiful charts, tightly coiled and ready to make explosive moves. I want you to note I bought none of them.
I did however buy CREE and MHR taking my long exposure up to 75 percent. I have another 10 percent in SKF, leaving me 15 percent cash to navigate tomorrows FED day. That’s essentially why I did not buy anything else today. I like the stocks I mentioned in paragraph one. Any one of those could produce a big gainer.
Interestingly enough, after today’s CREE buy and pooling in RBCN, 40 percent of my book is committed to LED technology. RBCN has some action off the new iPhone home button too, but their sapphire is an important material in LED production. This is my very concentrated bet. Parts of it aren’t doing too well. Take RVLT for instance—the chart looks hellish, yep…technical term. And I’m -30% on the name. Don’t care. I mean, I care very much, but the stock is a long term speculative hold. AIXG cannot and will not break out of its consolidation range. My cost basis is the only thing keeping me in this play because if it wasn’t near the bottom of this range I would have a harder time stomaching these waves.
I took one trade in the /6E today. After /6e pushed lower, it pulled back to a place I could enter. The trade went in my favor, all the way to my target, but did not fill. This happens often, and it used to cause a great deal of anguish and regret. I would be like, “I put my target out too far, now I will be getting the fuck.” Now I don’t sweat the action, but instead manage that which I can control at this point. The /6E very well could have put in another thrust lower, and it still may, but it didn’t. Instead it put my position below water and then just held it there. Around noon I took a step back, had a stretch, and asked the following questions:
What has the /6E done?
What is the /6E trying to do?
How good of a job is the /6E doing on the try?
It’s helpful. I pulled my chart out a bit, noticed the /6e has gone very quiet, something I noted this morning. The market open introduced a strong thrust lower, but not to fresh swing lows. We’re making lower highs, but also higher lows: it’s coiling! That’s what it has done.
To my eye, the Euro is trying to do two things: the bulls are trying to work out of a range bound trade that lasted an entire year. They are not doing a great job so far. The bears are trying to reject range highs. They’re doing a decent job, but have been smacked about quite a bit these last 8-10 trading days. As a result, the /6E is marking time until an unknown factor causes order flow out of this consolidation.
It’s doing a pretty damn good job consolidating as the EMAs I track had gone completely flat on top of the VPOC.
So then, what’s it likely to do? It was likely to chop the consolidation range, the short trade was dead. Instead of just clicking the buy to cover and taking a 0.00012 loss, I was lucky to catch a bit of movement in my favor and only lose 0.0006. I didn’t want to be in a coin toss situation any more. I covered. My entry was good so I really have no complaints with the trade. It just as easily could have continued rotating lower.
And now you have read though my entire lunchtime /6E perspective and my subsequent introspective. Have a great one!
Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:55am ESTComments Off on Added Some Long Exposure
Part of me thinks the high of the day was set already in the SPX, but I went ahead and added some long exposure.
I am trading around my core in CREE, I added more long exposure to this name looking for a move into the earning’s gap. To be clear, I think we get rejection somewhere in the above gap initially, but I want to play a push into it, initially.
I bought MHR too. I like this name, and I like how it is flagging on the daily chart. That being said, it is still looking downward, so I have tight risk.
The S&P squeezed above the bull target we observed this morning. Capturing and sustaining trade at these levels was a worthy accomplishment by the bull camp and instills a bit of confidence going into the weekend. The flip side of the coin is the complacent manner of the tape, where bulls are being led back into high energy momentum stocks and the market yawned off a complete NASDAQ freeze.
Regardless, I’ve made no changes to my book, nor do I intend to ahead of the weekend. Instead I’m day dreaming about hitting the magnificent road and leaving this filthy city behind. I’m heading for the pure air of Pure Michigan.
My only move today was buying ENPH, and old nemesis, near the open. I’m 90 percent long heading into the weekend, carrying a broad array of stocks and ETFs.
Could I get slaughtered come Monday? Sure.
But I’m confident I can trade my way out of it with my thick quiver of arrows. I look forward to doing so, live on the interwebs, like a boss.
I used some of that pesky cash on hand to reinitiate a position in END and start a new position in MHR. I have to tell you, the news cycle is an interesting creature, feeding us what we demand. Take Egypt for instance: they’ve been backwards freaks since the nose dropped off the Sphinx—troglodytes in sheep’s clothing. Yet here we are, with oil pulling back ever so gingerly after thrusting higher, and the news is aligning with another thrust.
Talk about harmonic orchestration!
I’m not here to debate the toxicity of news. I write to bring you the news, as filtered by my deranged microcosm. Oh, and I’m here for one other reason—to extract money from the stock exchange.
I’m up over one and a quarter percent today which has helped return air to my lungs. It was getting hard to breathe there for a minute. I had nine-one dialed on my rotary phone, entirely prepared to round out the final one only a moment before fainting.
Now I’m going into the weekend with confidence, unjustified as it may be, restored. I need weekends, you see, to allow me to gather my thoughts so I can survive five days of market flow.
I bought back into a long time favorite company and short term favorite stock of mine, American Apparel. They are the Cadillac of undershirts, which is great, I wear them almost every day. But buying their stock was simply a matter of financing more tee shirt purchases based on a chart I like. This thing has been dead money for-e-ver, and someone tossed in the towel these last two days, “fuck it” and I was there to claim their shares. I’ll AT THE LEAST, ride these babies back up to the dead money zone. At the most, we’ll finally get a pulse and I’ll ride a pumper. There’s a lot of good investors who believe in this name.
Heading into the bell, I’d like to open my book to your criticism. Here are my swing holdings, listed largest to smallest:
YGE, AIXG, RVLT, CREE, END, YELP, F, APP, MHR, LO, FB, IMMR, and O
I’ll be checking in this weekend with some data stuff I’ve been working on in the /ES.