SURE, I NIBBLED A BIT

Last weeks Russell set-up was tested here again, and held. Almost touched Tuesday’s low, but held. Now we see our first breadth buying extreme off the lows.

I am now long the $TF_F and $CL_F here as I think the lows are in for the week.

The chart you need to watch here is the dollar. The action we saw from Friday into today’s trade looks very bull-trapish.

The dollar broke out Friday, and gapped back down into its range at the open. That’s very un-bullish. Generally speaking, from failed moves come fast moves. This was the most crowded trade coming into the year, and a move lower could trigger a massive unwinding from a macro-perspective…especially considering how the “pro’s” are positioned here.

OA

Last night in After Hours with Option Addict, I said the following coming into today’s session:

“Going into tomorrow, its acceptable to see the market open lower, particularly the Nasdaq, but if the Russell is in any way divergent against the market, this will validate my market set-up going into next week.”

Looking at prices here this morning, would you say there’s a divergence?

Staying the course over here. Have a good weekend.

OA

I took a frozen rope to the sack today in my $KMI earnings bet. Please feel free to poke fun.

I bought a bunch more here, just now, for $.12. I love this trade and am willing to lose on it.

I also booked gains in Apr4 $GPRO and booked my calls in bitch-ass $MITCH.

Grabbed a YOLO on $PCLN tomorrow as well.

I love this market set-up into next week. Let’s chat about it during After Hours with Option Addict.

OA

Based on market participant positioning this year, Merriam Webster thought it would be funny to add “FOMO” to the dictionary.

When we trade to ATH’s, they told me that they’d add FIMO too.

Was this not the equivalent to “The Death of Equities?” Or Bill Gross’ “We’re Witnessing the Death of Equities?”

Since when does a broker give a damn whether or not you sell? Where the hell were these headlines in 2008?

Brokers always have some shit to sell you…but this will likely make it on my wall in a frame this year with the rest of my collection.

This week’s set-up I’ve been blogging about will be tested again today. They’re not letting it go thus far.

OA

Again, here’s the setup I threw out at yesterday’s low, to help calm nerves before you lost your lunch. Or even worse, sold your stocks or got short.

I got quiet on my longer term analogue because it occurred to me last year that it matters not. Why do I try hard to convince the unwashed where things are headed? Hard enough to put yourself out there and provide ideas, which is why so many stopped doing that in the last year or so. I ran out of shits to give.

Anyway, I wanted to make one last illustration as all of my work and analysis comes full circle.

Here’s that 3 month chart of the $RUT.

Compare to the 1998-1999 analogue coming off the October correction.

Here’s how 1998-2000 played out.

When similar patterns emerge from time frames discussed, the analogue still has promise.

FWIW.