Last night in After Hours with Option Addict, I said the following coming into today’s session:
“Going into tomorrow, its acceptable to see the market open lower, particularly the Nasdaq, but if the Russell is in any way divergent against the market, this will validate my market set-up going into next week.”
Looking at prices here this morning, would you say there’s a divergence?
Staying the course over here. Have a good weekend.
OA
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bravo, sir!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-pull-7-3-billion-stocks-largest-outflow-104746762–sector.html
Money still leaving the market – give credence to your thesis once investors try to play catch up. If money starts leaving bonds in droves, we would have quite a catalyst.
longer post, but remembering back to the early 90s – everyone complained about how the standard of living was going down,middle class getting screwed, US was weak, oil prices sucked, democrats destroying the country, Hillary Clinton was a witch (really – google it for some wacko conspiracy theory reading if you are bored) , Ross Perot divided the Republican party, etc. Was just thinking about this on the drive to work this morning and just find it interesting in the context of the markets, overall national climate and public sentiment
My analog concurs. TNA expected up big. Try to get the best entry you can.
Long CAKE DSW here. May get back into an AMBA call.
Great intraday move on NFLX – I missed it
couldn’t you also say that tech is a leader and this is a negative divergence and the others indices will follow?
You could, but this same play happened in 2012 going into 2013. The Dow and SPX cleared highs first, risk followed. With the strength in risk now, that’s how I’m seeing it. I suppose only time will tell.
I hear ya. I’m always weary when the QQQ’s lead to the downside. I have some shorts on but nothing heavy yet….very hard to call at the moment which direction we go for the rest of year.
I’m still loving the set up going on in the solar’s and will definitely be putting some big money to work there soon if this continues.
Every year that high yield posts a negative return (2015) stocks follow with double digit returns (2016)
thats good data. It will be interesting but I think either way there is more downside to endure first even if we eventually make new highs.
except 2000/2001, unless im looking at the wrong data points? where did ya find this OA?
wary not weary
+1
Sold metals and energy and added more biotech.
JDST workin’
Pretty remarkable, the way the Russell is singing it’s own tune… OA – great job laying it out in After Hours
JOY is a screaming short up here after the CAT report and this week’s reversal in PM stocks.
anyone know what KMI calls OA bought? I missed the original trade but saw the buy MOAR blog..
may expiry, 19 or 20s.. I have June 20s
Thanks
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2016/04/15/going-for-a-dice-roll/
OA,
Will FEYE and SOHU ever go? I’m slightly in the red and have been holding forever. Is rotation into these still a remote possibility.
With me, normally its not a matter of “if” but rather “when?”
So when are you thinking they take off?
When they are ready….
Do you own May options?
Common.
My bet was thirty days from now
Sold DIA puts….sold SCO for a quick $2
Nice observation about small caps. The analog is looking good. I got stopped out of QQQ long from yesterday a/h and switched to May ITM calls for SPY/ IWM. Looking for a couple weeks of upside.
Nice call OA. I was skeptical but small caps are leading the way higher. Picked up some May calls. The dips are consistently being bought which will lead to new highs soon enough.
Just an observation/thought but as the economy changed shouldn’t the meanings of the indices change? The largest stocks in the SP500 today AAPL GOOG MSFT AMZN FB are all tech now and were not as big in 2012 or mid 90s.
Biotech is the new dot com. Still in the Nasdaq.
10-4 appreciate the work as always OA
Strength in financials also cannot be dismissed…hence my exit of DIA puts.
Nice afternoon recovery in the making for TWTR
My 401K xfer finally went through yesterday and 30% is in small caps. good timing…..
Joe Kunkle @OptionsHawk now
Bonanza Creek $BCEI large buy of 6,050 January 2018 $7.50 calls $1.35/$1.40, aggressive – interesting one
USD/JPY up 2% wow
Added AAPL ITM calls expiring next week
Look at the equal weight SPX index $SPEWX or $SPXEW and $RSP (ETF) “Dare’s a divergence up in them hills”
Can you elaborate?
The equal weight SPX outperformed SPX itself by a nice margin on Friday. Meaning the entire index as a whole is doing well whereas the larger market cap names in the market cap weighed SPX and SPY looked unchanged on friday. This further supports your argument that R2K is diverging from other indices because the broader view (equal weight) is doing well. On stockcharts dot com, take a look at RSP and compare to SPY or look at $SPXEW and compare it to $SPX . You can even compare $NDXE (equal weight Naz100) and $NDX (Naz100)
OEW Weekend Update:
Short term >
“The key levels going forward are SPX 2111, 2074, and 2034. Should the market exceed SPX 2111 it is obviously extending to higher highs. Should the market drop to SPX 2074, the recent five wave advance from 2034 has definitely concluded. Should the market drop to SPX 2034, then the entire uptrend may have concluded as well. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral.”
How has your thinking evolved during All this? I’ve seen a few comments here and there…but what’s your take?
The main reason I cited his work initially was that the market came in just enough to change people’s opinions at the lows.
I think this uptrend was much more than those in the bear camp expected but the market has failed to make new highs (so far) and has fooled (???) most into believing we are still in a bull market.
If complacency sets in, and the bull scenario (P5) accepted then the most damage will be done when the C wave (bear mkt) extends below 1275 and is confirmed around 1210.
I’m sticking with Tony until he’s proven wrong. Playing uptrend with long swings but adding to short etf as we advance … 2 of 3 buys in already.
OA,
Have you seen FEYE? Pretty nice setup.
I own some calls, yep
Bad reversal in futures. Could get ugly tomorrow. Hoping this comment bottom ticks
OA, holding FSLR thru earnings which are Wednesday? Thanks!
Have held through the last 12 ER reports. That doesn’t imply I have any take on ER though.
KMI..really playing with my emotions
Does the silence mean no one knows where we are headed?
It means no one has anything useful to add – I am in the positions I want to be in and am now waiting. Market seems to want to suck, so let it do what markets do. FOMC on Wednesday, so I am expecting this type of grind until then.
Pipe time, Mr Melancon…
Not at home – have to work in the office today, so no solani for me – also been smoking some Morton Frog on the Bayou – I like perique