Again, here’s the setup I threw out at yesterday’s low, to help calm nerves before you lost your lunch. Or even worse, sold your stocks or got short.
I got quiet on my longer term analogue because it occurred to me last year that it matters not. Why do I try hard to convince the unwashed where things are headed? Hard enough to put yourself out there and provide ideas, which is why so many stopped doing that in the last year or so. I ran out of shits to give.
Anyway, I wanted to make one last illustration as all of my work and analysis comes full circle.
Here’s that 3 month chart of the $RUT.
Compare to the 1998-1999 analogue coming off the October correction.
Here’s how 1998-2000 played out.
When similar patterns emerge from time frames discussed, the analogue still has promise.
FWIW.
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Genius (again).
Hey OA – any thoughts on LB?
Not yet. Let it slow down some. It trades pretty fast.
Grabbed $canv and $mjna today. I have space to play one more but don’t want to get too giddy, regardless of what the calendar says.
For a good afternoon laugh for all, I sold shares of an oversized $spy position to fund the purchase. That has to be in a risk management textbook somewhere, right?
Please continue to give a shit. I, for one, listen and trade accordingly.
Good stuff. Hope that plays out.
PBR looks like it wants to bust a major move higher. (FD: Long it).
Also bought NMM today at $1.79
LOL. Thanks for the nod. Your late trade alerts were of much greater importance.
Late trade?
NSM looks really good. Might have to try some
ASPS is another one in similar space. Tons of air up above until $100. Is anyone in these? They had to change their biz models right?
Great work as usual, Jeff. You’ve been more measured since 2014, I think, and just as sharp as ever gauging sentiment, rotations and market mood. It’s why I’m still a member.
Added some SFUN May calls today.
Stalking materials for laggards and unexploited volume gaps. My old favourite trading vehicle from last decade (SVM.TO) is up 450% off the lows.
This was supposed to be in the main thread. ASPS was on my radar for a long time, traded it once for a small loss. I’ll become more interested if it looks like it will break $34.
Thank you. I appreciate the feedback.
Anyone still in or watching EROS? Chart looks good but I can’t do it given how much that thing f’d me last year.
Consider it a gamble, there are rumors about money laundering. There is a reason why the firm tanked , last year
This is a powerful multi-year move
The market is forecasting a better business climate in 2017
And I can’t forget her today http://youtu.be/oN_YKJBMagQ
Jeff, thoughts on GOGO here? Stalking May calls on this dip. Also, thoughts on NKE or UA calls, both looking good here.
Thanks!
Close to $11 seems reasonable.
This MTCH is the most erratic trading stock I’ve owned in a while (excluding when the market crashes).
Looks like Axiom had a note out on Tinder having a huge ad opportunity on Android devices. Not sure if that’s really a catalyst. I think the company wants to introduce ads but I don’t think they want to dilute their brand, at least that’s what I gathered from their calls. I think they’re trying to transition to a more widely used social platform but I highly doubt you’re going to find married guys/girls or business people on their and being open about being on there. I still think their big prize is allowing people to see who near them is single…I think people would pay for that, assuming it doesn’t violate any privacy laws.
Doesn’t the market usually dive when you get chatty?
Like in December 2014 when I was talking about FCAU prior to its 40% move up (and when you kept giving me shit for it)? Or when I said VSLR was a short at $12 and you gave me shit for that?
I meant like two weeks ago when my comments section turned into a litter box with new buys, then sells the following day.
I never gave you shit about buying $FCAU? It just became stupid to hear about it daily.
Yeah I’ve noticed comments picking up lately. I personally have a max of an hour a day to post shit due to helping raise kids and run two businesses (hence the “late trade alerts”) so wouldn’t read too much into my posts…
Ditto.
The frequency just seemed very deja-vu.
The timing of my first comment was un-fucking-canny.
OA – safe to say that you are on fire
Ha, thanks. What you thinking about $IBB?
noticing its been lagging last 2 days. if it wasn’t for the last hr ramp, it would still be red. still lagging the nasdaq today again. You think they play catchup? that $285 has been tested several times and just doesn’t want to seem to hold whenever it breaks above
OA, any thoughts on crude? Broke out today hitting right at that $44 resistance (also, the Gartman #) You think we pause here? or time to run over oil shorts
At $36 last week I called for $46.
Didn’t you hear? Gartman took his life moments ago, before he saw oil crossed 44; his last words were — “not in my lifetime”.
Long $JDST $2.75
such a big move already today. guess these miners can run fast tho
Another epic JDST trade setting up? I like it….
Yeah, I think this is a winner.Haven’t touched her in forever.
great start, that’s for sure
Fuck I meant to look closer at that. Hoping for a dip tmrw / next day
OA, jumped in here pre-market at 2.35. Was your 2.75 a long term hold or do you have a stop on it? Thank you.
short is still the play here.
Just based on the range?
Out of FAZ and SCO trades…sold GRPN and TSLA longs. Bought slug of JDST
Liking the comfort of cash…those were some ugly reversals today.
Was surprised at your FAZ and SCO trades. GS was pretty strong
I do stupid things sometimes… I like the action in BIS and stuck w that trade and wasn’t going to risk addl damage by ho!ding SCO & FAZ overnight. Not expecting to be very active in the next few weeks hence a sizable cash position.
decided to sell 1/2 of my positions in mtch pbr and fcx at close. Just in case Jeff is right about my chattiness. Been a great start to the year and would rather protect some of gains
I like the JDST call. I was thinking gold makes a new high above 1287 and miners don’t follow as the entry to short miners. Just gonna stick with that and hope for a good entry ideally around hourly RSI of 30 or below.
KMI out for you players at home
http://ir.kindermorgan.com/press-release/kindermorgan/kinder-morgan-generates-more-12-billion-distributable-cash-flow-first-qua
Reaction meh to bleh – looks like everything hit below expectations and capex was cut by 1.3B
conference call not doing anything either – looks like sideways tomorrow
As a charter member of the unwashed, I can speak for my people when I say we take great interest in your view of where things are headed. You’ve been knocking the cover off the ball for a bit now so that may make some of us a bit shy of offering our $.02. Having said that, FWIW I’m enjoying some about time moves in FIT and TWTR and hoping my AGN was a bottom and MSFT is not. At this point my mood is about as moody as this market and my plan is just to look for set ups and not stay for long.
Thanks for the comments +1
Surprised no comments on UA here. Or is that because – like Curry – it is expected to win tomorrow so why waste time talking about it?
Let me guess…straddle?
Why would we talk $UA? lol…so random.
Jeff, I’m fairly new to trading and trade stocks for growth and DIV, not comfortable yet with calls and puts. I find your blogs informative and interesting and look forward to each post. I hope you continue to give your long term analogue.
Thanks. Most people avoid the options portion of this and just follow with the stock. Those peeps have a much better batting average.
Still holding $UA May paper, will hold through earnings, curiously enough, before open tomorrow. Target is ~$48.
Picked up some UAL at $56.99. Those earnings were solid. I figure this is an offset to my energy positions in some way
Dude – I’ve barely commented here throughout the years- why the antagonism? I agree with you that strangles are not a great play – my point in originally mentioning them was to say that an exception to play them might be if a stock is in a position where it looks like it might move big one way or the other or it is a stock that usually moves big after earnings like NFLX, AKAM, or the now defunct GMCR. And those are some of the few out of obviously thousands and thousands of equities in which a strangle would be a bad play. I have never played a straddle – although I know what it is – I never saw the advantage in playing it.
Just pulling your chain. My antagonistic ways might have been triggered by the change in name, but the same message.
I own $UA. Just having a laugh.
I mentioned UA “out of the blue” because I know it has been mentioned many times on other blog articles and so I was surprised it had not really been mentioned the day before earnings. I have near money weekly calls. I hate the “Curry did well – so will UA” sentiment but I like the chart location and recent consolidation.
Any thoughts on how seasonality will affect this bullish setup? I def think the pain trade would for the market to continue to slowly grind up like +.25%/ day.
Sitting on TVIX short as longer term play but thinking about adding more major long exposure. Would add big but this gives me pause.
Also have very short term (1-2 day) SPY short initiated yesterday.
Chiefton15 has been pulling drive-byes.
Analogue, if you are a subject of the British Crown.
Analog, here in the New World.
Not the greatest company to have as an energy long:
See comments from sethster who I believe is the nugt guy right?:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/04/21/soros-warns-chinas-debt-problem-is-eerily-similar-to-americas-circa-2008/
Added to JDST
Sold short GM 33.35
BOT TWTR in size
Added more JDST
Bot KERX shares as hedge to BIS