Last weeks Russell set-up was tested here again, and held. Almost touched Tuesday’s low, but held. Now we see our first breadth buying extreme off the lows.
I am now long the $TF_F and $CL_F here as I think the lows are in for the week.
The chart you need to watch here is the dollar. The action we saw from Friday into today’s trade looks very bull-trapish.
The dollar broke out Friday, and gapped back down into its range at the open. That’s very un-bullish. Generally speaking, from failed moves come fast moves. This was the most crowded trade coming into the year, and a move lower could trigger a massive unwinding from a macro-perspective…especially considering how the “pro’s” are positioned here.
OA
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how do you see a weaker dollar for equities?
Although the market is too complicated of a thing for a “unified theory” – do you see it as a thing that is controlled by two principles….the one principle being the sentiment, as in a constant psychological “fuck you” beast that operates on a “pain trade” some of the time and then the other principle being a supply and demand mechanism (based on money coming in and money coming out)?
Ha, there’s no quick response to that.
Supply and demand are the most important principles, but I’ve seen you post on those topics before and we don’t view them the same.
I think sentiment helps you dictate the chop, the stuff that most people find random. For example, demand will take the market as high as it must…but sentiment will dictate how it zig zags to that destination.
A+ description
I went neutral oil from short. For me, that’s going like long!
I concur with your assessment. Haven’t made my move in Russel (TNA) yet.
Jeff, thoughts on IBB here? Most large biotech firms releasing earnings this week. Could be pivotal. Would you nibble here?
No, but I’m long from Feb and am staying long.
Let me know when you need me to step in and bottom tick it
Whenever you’re ready buddy
The dollar broke out on Friday? I’m showing a high of 95.18 vs high of 95.21 a week earlier.
You must have overlooked the chart I posted.
I prefer futures over ETFs
Same move.
You must have overlooked the futures chart.
Haha, you cocksucker. Banned.
Large insider purchase at UAL. I followed at $49.7. Not saying it has to happen but those worked well at JPM and WYNN and this one is pretty damn cheap. Depends on oil obviously.
Super weak volume on SPY, way lower than the typical 100MM. Bodes well for tomorrow/ Weds. Im still long from Fri and picked up FEYE today
Sold JDST —
OA – What would make you sell out of /TF? ie. how wide is your stop?
btw. I’m long here too. 1132.20
My stop is 30, so not far. I always use 5 points.
Cool tnx. Mine is just slightly below that, but yes, tight stops on this.
can we get NK to squeeze yet.
Prob not
“Pros” are least long since June 2014.
Bought 1/2 position in CLiFord. Will buy 1/2 more around 3.2.
Stalking WNR from the missed fill last week.
Just noticed I missed BOX entry like I said last week. Got WNR and BOX on the mind. Does that say anything about sentiment?
OA, any interest in $FMSA on a little pullback?
We will make all time highs this year. It’s going to be incredible to watch it as it happens. The folks on the sidelines will be hoping for a pullback in order to jump in, but why didn’t they jump in Feb11th?
Shorts will just have to shoot themselves, get it over with.
It’s hard to get long after the ~17% run up since the 2/11 lows of 1810 in the $SPX. But I’m a novice, so I don’t know jack.
Yeah, if you waited this long…find a new hobby.
Since Feb 11 th? nice, I didn’t catch this ride until late in February but what a run. I understand the <$2 stock fever now after doubling a position on CANN .
HAL and BHI won’t happen.
BHI will tank. May be a buying opp.
Bot FCX in PM
Let’s have a solar day! FSLR rise into earnings tomorrow would be welcome!!
Earnings reports affirming the continued lack of value offered by Exodus and our former supreme leader…why add to a losing short position? It would have been easier to just hold onto the 200% SPY position from $185.
Instead we get an endless stream of verbal diarrhea about the end of the world. If it weren’t for OAs thread, the site would be a graveyard. The vultures are circling – keep up this Zero Hedge bullshit and IBC will end up like one of the ghost cities in China.
Is everyone having audio issues with AHWOA?
TJ – I’m only able to attend via recordings, but the audio comes across fine.
Unwound last of short trades. Sold BIS. Keeping KERX.
Sold TWTR — not willing to hold thru earnings report tonight
Added to FCX…bought GRPN. Done with the reshuffle…
bought BITA and XON with tight stop.
stopped out of XON in record time. Guess I’ll have to make lunch at home today.
Looks like last week was just another fake out for $IBB
Bored w/BAC — sold and rolled into MACK shares. Liking small cap biotech here.
RH looking strong. and quiet on support. Nice volume profile above.
E-Sports names worth a look down here….EA, ATVI, SNE