iBankCoin
The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts

SURE, I NIBBLED A BIT

Last weeks Russell set-up was tested here again, and held. Almost touched Tuesday’s low, but held. Now we see our first breadth buying extreme off the lows.

I am now long the $TF_F and $CL_F here as I think the lows are in for the week.

The chart you need to watch here is the dollar. The action we saw from Friday into today’s trade looks very bull-trapish.

2016-04-25_10-56-06

The dollar broke out Friday, and gapped back down into its range at the open. That’s very un-bullish. Generally speaking, from failed moves come fast moves. This was the most crowded trade coming into the year, and a move lower could trigger a massive unwinding from a macro-perspective…especially considering how the “pro’s” are positioned here.

OA

 

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47 comments

  1. zephler

    how do you see a weaker dollar for equities?

    Although the market is too complicated of a thing for a “unified theory” – do you see it as a thing that is controlled by two principles….the one principle being the sentiment, as in a constant psychological “fuck you” beast that operates on a “pain trade” some of the time and then the other principle being a supply and demand mechanism (based on money coming in and money coming out)?

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    • Option Addict

      Ha, there’s no quick response to that.

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      • Option Addict

        Supply and demand are the most important principles, but I’ve seen you post on those topics before and we don’t view them the same.

        I think sentiment helps you dictate the chop, the stuff that most people find random. For example, demand will take the market as high as it must…but sentiment will dictate how it zig zags to that destination.

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  2. Nocturne

    I went neutral oil from short. For me, that’s going like long!

    I concur with your assessment. Haven’t made my move in Russel (TNA) yet.

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  3. heisenberg

    Jeff, thoughts on IBB here? Most large biotech firms releasing earnings this week. Could be pivotal. Would you nibble here?

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  4. Jon v

    The dollar broke out on Friday? I’m showing a high of 95.18 vs high of 95.21 a week earlier.

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  5. Jon v

    Large insider purchase at UAL. I followed at $49.7. Not saying it has to happen but those worked well at JPM and WYNN and this one is pretty damn cheap. Depends on oil obviously.

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  6. greenlander1

    Super weak volume on SPY, way lower than the typical 100MM. Bodes well for tomorrow/ Weds. Im still long from Fri and picked up FEYE today

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  7. kidstockibc

    Sold JDST —

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  8. fryguy

    OA – What would make you sell out of /TF? ie. how wide is your stop?

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  9. jalf

    can we get NK to squeeze yet.

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  10. infinitezuul

    “Pros” are least long since June 2014.

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  11. Jewishmantis

    Bought 1/2 position in CLiFord. Will buy 1/2 more around 3.2.

    Stalking WNR from the missed fill last week.

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  12. Jewishmantis

    Just noticed I missed BOX entry like I said last week. Got WNR and BOX on the mind. Does that say anything about sentiment?

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  13. moosh

    OA, any interest in $FMSA on a little pullback?

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  14. MSGT HARTMAN

    We will make all time highs this year. It’s going to be incredible to watch it as it happens. The folks on the sidelines will be hoping for a pullback in order to jump in, but why didn’t they jump in Feb11th?

    Shorts will just have to shoot themselves, get it over with.

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    • NON Solo

      It’s hard to get long after the ~17% run up since the 2/11 lows of 1810 in the $SPX. But I’m a novice, so I don’t know jack.

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    • pyromonoxide

      Since Feb 11 th? nice, I didn’t catch this ride until late in February but what a run. I understand the <$2 stock fever now after doubling a position on CANN .

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  15. MSGT HARTMAN

    HAL and BHI won’t happen.

    BHI will tank. May be a buying opp.

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  16. kidstockibc

    Bot FCX in PM

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  17. dlrago8

    Let’s have a solar day! FSLR rise into earnings tomorrow would be welcome!!

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  18. kidstockibc

    Earnings reports affirming the continued lack of value offered by Exodus and our former supreme leader…why add to a losing short position? It would have been easier to just hold onto the 200% SPY position from $185.

    Instead we get an endless stream of verbal diarrhea about the end of the world. If it weren’t for OAs thread, the site would be a graveyard. The vultures are circling – keep up this Zero Hedge bullshit and IBC will end up like one of the ghost cities in China.

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  19. thomasjefferson

    Is everyone having audio issues with AHWOA?

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    • unclebuccs

      TJ – I’m only able to attend via recordings, but the audio comes across fine.

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  20. kidstockibc

    Unwound last of short trades. Sold BIS. Keeping KERX.

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  21. kidstockibc

    Sold TWTR — not willing to hold thru earnings report tonight

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  22. kidstockibc

    Added to FCX…bought GRPN. Done with the reshuffle…

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  23. traderconfessions
    traderconfessions

    bought BITA and XON with tight stop.

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  24. traderconfessions
    traderconfessions

    stopped out of XON in record time. Guess I’ll have to make lunch at home today.

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  25. Bchu12

    Looks like last week was just another fake out for $IBB

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  26. kidstockibc

    Bored w/BAC — sold and rolled into MACK shares. Liking small cap biotech here.

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  27. traderconfessions
    traderconfessions

    RH looking strong. and quiet on support. Nice volume profile above.

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  28. kidstockibc

    E-Sports names worth a look down here….EA, ATVI, SNE

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