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Option Addict

The first hit is always on the house.

SOMEONE LIKES $BOX

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While I await market resolution, here’s another look at $BOX from last night.

Apparently, you rip the stock out above a range, sell it all the way back down underneath it, then buy it back to the middle.

Lovely market we have here.

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LOOKING DIVERGENT

Markets can’t put in tradeable lows, or bottoms without divergence. In every scenario I can recall in blogging here, this has always been the case.

We observed this on a much larger scale back in late September. The theme of that week was “divergence.” Here this week, the instrument which has paved the way to the downside (IWM) has gone green here this morning. Just in time for the festival of comments in the last 24 hours.

This never ceases to amaze me, the conversations and tone exchanged at or near lows (assuming that is a possibility here).

I’ve done nothing on the day other than plot revenge and take a position in $CLLS and booked a gain in $SFUN. I also have a few yolo’s to bury at the close.

I’ve pulled a few names together to play for next week, but I feel I am already in or involved in the names I like most.

Hard to bet against a -80 $NYMO here.

OA

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STRAPPED INTO A SHIT STORM

WHAT GOES UP MUST GO DOWN GET DESTROYED.

What a disastrous week. I supposed I deserve the head bashing…after all, I did have the nerve to say we’d probably trade in a range this week.

The $NYMO just hit -80 here this morning, but those that have been waiting to buy a dip are thinking, “nah, I’m good.”

The $RUT is now in “oh shit” territory, coming off the back of this oversold signal. Curious to see how this develops this morning.

 

 

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A TECHNICAL CASE STUDY: $BOX

Any breakouts that have happened in the last week or more have seen immediate back filling the day following a breakout.

Last week, $AMBA, $GOGO, $AVGO, $QRVO, $YRCW, etc.

Yesterday, the only highlight of the day was a nice fat rip in the $BOX calls from Monday. Here’s a quick look…

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Yesterday, enthusiasm for the name, excitement, etc. Today, despair, anger, depression.

How many of you have already converted to selling the initial breakout? With most stocks seeing a retest after, there seems to be no reason not to sell into the strength. One can always get back in on the retest.

This will be something we discuss in detail on the 5th day of the NYC INVESTOR CONFERENCE ONLINE next week. Get a seat, they’ve filled up pretty quickly.

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CONVICTION?

Glance over this post I wrote on the $RUT back at the end of October. If you haven’t heard me walk though this verbally on After Hours with Option Addict, it was remarkable to see the buying conviction off 1160 in this index for the last year or more. This was what prompted that $IWN reco for a trade at the NYC conference.

I’ve had a lot of people reference the notable weakness here. We’ve just come down to retest this conviction level as of right now.

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That ought to be the needed retest to stabilize the ship. We start breaching this, and problems mount, like the trolls in my comments.

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A TURNING POINT SO CLOSE, YOU CAN ALMOST TASTE IT

HOW MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS CAN WE TRADE LOWER EARLY, THEN FLATLINE ALL AFTERNOON?

IS THIS A SICK JOKE? I HAVE PREMIUM TO UNLOAD!

Something has to give to this awful template we’ve had each day this week. I’m hoping this market has done enough for participants to rationalize the idea of selling it down.

I’m over here shopping China set-ups and trying to figure out what is happening in retailers.

Are we oversold yet?

OA

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