Markets can’t put in tradeable lows, or bottoms without divergence. In every scenario I can recall in blogging here, this has always been the case.
We observed this on a much larger scale back in late September. The theme of that week was “divergence.” Here this week, the instrument which has paved the way to the downside (IWM) has gone green here this morning. Just in time for the festival of comments in the last 24 hours.
This never ceases to amaze me, the conversations and tone exchanged at or near lows (assuming that is a possibility here).
I’ve done nothing on the day other than plot revenge and take a position in $CLLS and booked a gain in $SFUN. I also have a few yolo’s to bury at the close.
I’ve pulled a few names together to play for next week, but I feel I am already in or involved in the names I like most.
Hard to bet against a -80 $NYMO here.
OA
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OA, I was tracking the Russell all morning. Now in the green. I knew you were going to have a post like this, and glad I saw it. Love that divergence!
Let’s hope the rest follows
Wow, change of heart?
Top tick?? Market fading now…
Oh come on. How do you not know I’ve been long this week? I’ve been cursing the market and my positions all week. I make observations when I both lose and win. Not only when the market is going my direction
I bash myself too. Don’t get it twisted. Maybe you could dial down the emotional outbursts? Or keep them to yourself?
ZG down below the prior balance area. Debating this one…
Answering the Q from last post: yes, Tony Caldaro sees ATHs at 2215 or higher as the next stop
At that point he concludes the bull market, yes? I’m not an avid follower…but read a post every few months apart.
correct
Can be a tough read with so many waves of various degrees but I look for important markers like the line in the sand he posted that would negate his P5 correction …
“1993 is the high of Major 1, Major 4 should not drop below it”
We remain in P5 with Major 5 to come unless we break 1993 to the downside.
Would ya look at that? $HYG just went positive too..I’m sensing a short-term shift.
Eyeing AAPL, NFLX, ZG at $112.7, $116, right here, respectively.
Picked up some AAPL for a trade at $113.4
I am looking for unusual behavior from my oil algo. A solid rebound from the double FU topping signal on the hourly SCO chart. In the past that has meant about a 4 – 6% pullback in SCO. If that pattern is negated, I add to SCO and likely will be stopped out of my UWTI day trade.
I don’t understan, but pxd looks good.
OA,
So are you saying there was no divergence heading down, but this is heading back up?
Could you elaborate?
You said, “Markets can’t put in tradeable lows, or bottoms without divergence. In every scenario I can recall in blogging here, this has always been the case”. but heading back up RUT left at 10:21 whereas, SPX started back up at 11:18. So the move up showed divergence whereas the move down did not? Is that what you are saying?
No, not what I was saying. In the last week or so, which index has gone down the most?
Oh sorry. I read can when you wrote can’t.
Don’t you usually wait for the second drop / higher low in $NYMO before buying?
Depends. We took the intra-day reading in late September.
OA- agree, my outbursts gets highly emotional. Most of the time its usual to instigate some chatter on this blog. Gets me thru the day
XBI looks kind of bearish in the bigger picture, no? Can someone explain the opposite view to me? I see a potential descending triangle forming…XBI was up almost 100% from the period of October 14 to July 15 which in hindsight is probably a euphoric move up.
Just trying to think through the implications here if this is the right side of the mountain.
Guess its at a critical spot. If it can break above that downward sloping trendline that’s probably quite bullish.
My buy stop of 101.49 was triggered in SCO. This negated any additional loss in UWTI below 6.75.
Now I can enjoy the 2:30 close for futs trading.
IWM hanging tough.
TBT acceptable/expected pullback.
KMI, WYNN, GDX, off their lows.
But its early!
ES 2021.50 is key now. Top tick on Fed day back in September. Bottom tick earlier today.
If it holds today you’ll see a bounce for a week or so, if it fails, other scenarios of a downward shape are likely.
Good luck.
Great trade in that $FTSE. It never bought into the upside.
It’s heavy on miners, so always weak into a downturn, and commodities were a leading indicator again (still are IMO).
I haven’t taken profits yet, will close Monday AM if support holds today, prefer to hold for potential waterfall-esque declines.
Cheers.
Mind elaborating on your CLLS buy decision? Always like to hear your decision points.
Lower time frame had a perfect pattern to buy. Liked strength in IBB.
Very nice weekly stochastic. Looks like you can squeeze a few bucks out of it. Thanks.
You don’t think this just Sets up for it to be sold off Monday?
I would think that if you started buying tons of stuff here.
It could save you some money
What could save me money?
Notable: I used an advertised buy stop 101.49. Algos ate it, went up a bit, and is trading a dollar below my price at the time of this post.
I am using a mental stop of 6.75 in UWTI. It hasn’t been violated. Pinning USO at 13.00 does not suggest a free fall. Suggests a week defined walk down of price in oil. How low? Unsure, but capitulation in USO will be on the order of 75 – 100 mil shares transacted.
“Well defined” HMFP
do or die time right here
getting close to a rug pull. Get the popcorn ready the last 90 mins should be fun!
ES 2021.5 given way. Could lose another 20-30 points in a hurry now.
Technically, SCO had a good chance of running above 101.49.. It is pretty fucking ridiculous that we can’t have price discovery for a commodity pulled out of our fucking ground during our fucking market hours.
Rant over.
So we’ll have to wait over the weekend. My UWTI will likely still be in play. Neutralized by the additional purchase of SCO. T fucking D Ameritrade wins.
Rant really over! ; ^)
nearterm oversold after dropping 90 sp points since nov 3. Long term; 3rd historic top in 15 yrs is in
How did you confirm the top?
Why the hell is dogshit YELP up on a day like this?
$FEYE, $ANGI too…lol
Friday The 13th… Ahhh.. it all makes sense.