WHAT GOES UP MUST GO DOWN GET DESTROYED.
What a disastrous week. I supposed I deserve the head bashing…after all, I did have the nerve to say we’d probably trade in a range this week.
The $NYMO just hit -80 here this morning, but those that have been waiting to buy a dip are thinking, “nah, I’m good.”
The $RUT is now in “oh shit” territory, coming off the back of this oversold signal. Curious to see how this develops this morning.
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the nasdaq just created a massive 15 day island top..just for fun
well, I got my spx 2040 retest this week and it failed…i expect a plunge next week and a trading bottom…turn around tuesday anyone?
Nailed it. I’m going to pass my blog off to you.
Sarcasm or truth?
lol. You want to apply?
Never – I am a mere servant of this blog.
I was just having fun with the sentiment around here. It gets nutty at times.
My breadth indicators suggest no near term end to the shit storm. Zeitgeist-wise, don’t see how there can be any good rally until the Fed meeting on Dec 10.
I did not post this, but a few days ago I bought tza to help with the tna decay. Shortly after my buy of tna 65.53 this morning, I sold my tza positron as it did it’s job. My tna buy is stamped on the previous blog.
Buying uwti at the open or when I entered at 7.19, with a 6% stop are still valid trades as off this post.
Again I bot uwti to manage decay in SCO. I have a 1% position in SCO from 79.11.
My TNA is an add’l add following OA’ thesis.
So you attempt to capture a spread being long/short leveraged oil? If both positions decay, is there any money in that?
For me, it keeps me in a trade with these 3X etfs. Best example today is selling my small TZA position against my TNA. That sale knocked $2.00 off my entry price for TNA. I never know when the spikes occur,but I have been pretty good at picking spots when my 3X etf be it SCO or TNA goes down 3% before resuming it’s trend. When I determine the trend is over, I exit an ETF completely.
To clarify, SCO is a 2X Etf and my choice for shorting oil.
But if the movements off set eachother, they both have positive decay. How do you determine the size? Seems like that determines the p/l, right? The offset between the two?
I only ask because I did extensive work on pairs trading these specifically to sell calls against them.
C’mon TNA, at least you can chew through the O/N price gap!
I blame Freddy Krueger.
I think you mean Jason – or his mom.
Over/under 75 points in a game this season for Steph Curry?
how about an over and under of 75 on the Nasdaq today
Over
Data dependent market — sensing buyers will not re-emerge until q4 earnings. Money coming out of bond funds AND equity funds is not helping the case for the bulls. The Fed is trapped until the excess has been wrung out making QE a pipe dream. Good luck guys.
so everyone just sits in cash for 2-3 months?
I don’t have to trade for a living…some guys do.
My preference is the short side here — avoid biotech / momentum names — but lots of other areas ripe for the selling. I think we test lower end of range in the mid 180’s on SPY by end of the year.
He has to be in that club this year.
dear god please make me a bird so i can fly far far away
but seriously I just bought a lot of jan 16 calls
Still waiting for BABA to come in a *tad* more… (Uncle Troll)
My weeklies are a Zero on this but looking to go long again around 71ish
OA and I had mapped out 75, but I’m tempted to wait for 71.
so far today 75 seems about right
Patience rewarded these days, my friend. Talk about a FOMO vacuum.
IWM strong relative to other indices.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.
OA, need to answer your question here due to how my phone presents the blog. Re: how I manage ETFs. Execution is important. I attempt to calculate/guess! when a move against my ETF which must be in an uptrend for my timeframe, will occur.
For oil, SCO can typically go down, 6 -12% while still keep its uptrend intact. My UWTI represented 75% of my 1% position in SCO. If I am stopped out of UWTI, I miss some upside in SCO. Again the key is execution. This is the first time I’ve attempted UWTI since I entered this trade in the beginning of October. I missed the October oil rally and feel there is a chance of a rally the next few days without affecting my thesis.
I realize I could just play SCO, but psychologically this helps me stay in the trade for more profit.
If I wanted to buy SCO, what I like to do is to buy puts on the UCO instead and thereby utilize the built-in decay; which I did. Of course, one has to buy puts and not the underlying to do this.
IBB up 2%. Just sayin
What did OA say yesterday about follow thru? Non existent this week. Wouldn’t be surprised if bio crashed Monday based on today.
I cannot believe you guys. This show is over. Still holding $TVIX $YANG $DWTI. Buying $UGLD $USLV
Believe what?
just short this its what the fed wants
Fed is literally trying to put benjamins in the pockets of Americans, and people are picking up dips in FXI instead.
Sold my small add in TNA at a predetermined price of 67.53. (+2). This was a trade around my full position in TNA. Thank you European fund managers who must invest in stocks.
FWIW, PYPL doing the sentiment thing fairly well. Gets very interesting <34
ES tapped 2022, the low of the range we made ourselves back inside. About 20 points more than I thought we’d get. Interesting spot, if you have a peak at your continuous ES chart. I still see a squeeze EOD. However, I wouldn’t listen to me. Just what I see.
Some OEW comments from Tony since the close yesterday:
” The current decline from SPX 2087 is a bit larger than the waves we have seen since this Major 4 pullback began. This may not mean anything, or it may suggest Minor c will travel straight down with no minute wave reversals. The daily RSI is already oversold. Now we are watching the hourly MACD. Short term support is at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.”
“1867 is an important level, but not so sure it is the definitive line in the sand.
1993 is the high of Major 1, Major 4 should not drop below it.”
“2019 pivot should hold.”
I feel like I have to buy something here from a completely emotional place. Is anyone else fighting that?
Sell Mortimer SELL!!!
Exactly how I feel. Trying to avoid throwing good money after bad money (calls: MU, URBN, more)
“Double finger” pattern on the hourly SCO chart. I would expect a move down to 95 -96.
The algos are not imaginative. First move is IWM, next move is oil, lastly it’s bonds (short).
To date, the IWM move sticks, the oil move is faded, and the long bonds are shorted
IWM GREEN
I already bought some early this week, so I have to wait and see to buy more.
My GE is a saving grace today. I still think OA’s scenario is intact toward the end of the year and next.
Either TD Ameritrade, Verizon, or my Galaxy 3 blows . Can’t get any charts. Even without charts I’d take a shot at TBT here at 45.60. I am not as I already have a short 46 put for next week and TBT is already a 1% position.
The market will go green by end of day further confusing the shit out of all but liars.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1qBjHVFG/
The bottom may be in …
He’s on the opinion that the market hits ATH’s right? He’s hard to read at times.
We … we are about to bottom and after this Primary5 correction we see new highs. You’re on the same page or have you tempered your enthusiasm?
No, I said same. ATH’s prior to 12/11.