Our After Hours with Option Addict theme coming into this week was oil, again.
Several days ago, we positioned for the 3 day pop in oil. I bought oil futures and some $COP calls. Last week we bought up $COP again, and I moved into $UCO calls over the weekend in lieu of my /CL long.
Looking over the analogue, this should start a two week move in oil, if time and price continue to stay in alignment. Oil prices are trying to break a multi-week range here today.
As for our discussion on “global inflection points” the first response seems pretty significant. I’ll follow up on this later.
OA
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Does this look like discouragement phase for $CMG?
Discouragement is a developing range, as opposed to a swan dive.
Not sure how analogue predicted Saudi/Iran conflict. Maybe a little luck too.
It was trading firm prior to that. That’s what matters most.
OK. I stay away from the oil space. Too many unpredictable forces at work. But hope it works out for you.
COP was up 35 cents when I wrote this and now it’s down 60 cents 90 minutes later.
The idea is, I think, the event doesn’t matter. It didn’t predict that specifically, it predicted something that would cause prices to rise. Also, I don’t think violent conflict is really “luck”.
Added to TBT at 42.85. Sold my TZA for 9%gain. Now long a 1/4 position in TNA unhedged. Have done nothing with oil.
Remain short a 3/4 position. Will short more at 40.00.
Here it is! Fake a move to make a move out of the range. Big buyer SPY calls just now. Thank you.
Haha. I see big seller. Big quick 50 pt move down in the Dow just now
Wow…failed breakout in CL. That was quick…
Holding the lower end of the range though.
Let’s hope so. I am in this trade as well, really encouraging open today…
Is it safe to say that we are no longer overbought?
The market? As of when?
The market. This morning.
Also added 2nd half of position to $APA this morning
We were overnight before??
My finely tuned sarcasm is squandered here.
Overbought? Must have missed that.
Offered a small amount of SCO at 136.12 when it was trading at 135.60. Algo came right up and chomped it. I believe we see 35/barrel before 37/barrel.
My reasoning is that the price of WTI was marked up through the morning of 1/4 to help the debt markets.
Middled east and IBM data is noise.
ISM data …HTOMFP
Ironic though that I took the proceeds from my small SCO sale to start a position in IBM.
Haven’t done anything today. I enjoy making note of the high short interest names with decent accumulation/distribution scores on these dark days. Will ferret through the tickers later.. http://imgur.com/trU1jxe
Got lucky with my LABD purchase. Now the question is to hold or not. Was thinking XBI would get to $63 but these leveraged ETFs are tough to hold.
Luck would be if it breaks this range to the downside.
Sold LABD at $34.8ish avg.
I’m hoping we get a move back to around $69 again for XBI which would be a good spot to re-enter LABD IMO as far as risk-reward goes.
TBT may be sniffing out a bunch of dealers sending back their overnight repos to raise cash.
Many of my stocks are sensing this as well.
Muppet 401k front running may commence….
Lots of powder on the sidelines could turn this market around this afternoon. Liking the action very much out of the morning lows.
Added to my BITA position here. Still underwater a little on this POS
crazy day and unexpected from what I was seeing. The insane part is I am now green for the day lead by GPRO and FEYE?! WYNN and UA also holding up very well. Very strange day to say the least and to be honest I’m not sure what to make of it.
$WYNN is a good long if China crashes. Retail leaves the bucket shops and heads back to the casinos. $WYNN has an excellent inverse correlation to $SSEC.