What you just saw was exactly what needed to happen. We were up pretty good on the day, and into that strength we saw more breadth stats that have not been seen since 8/8/2011.
In that move, you triggered some big short covering and got longs involved too high.
The $NYMO was as high as 76 (that I saw) and as Fly mentioned, Exodus printed overbought yesterday.
Cool off on the longs for a bit. If you are in cash, start buying in about three weeks from now.
See you in After Hours with Option Addict.
OA
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*overbought
*bear cycle in
?
http://img01.deviantart.net/391c/i/2012/340/2/a/life_cycle_of_a_bear_designs_sketches_by_poorartman-d5n9flh.jpg
& , more technically
http://wiseaboutbears.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/food-cyclemnr_e002709.jpg
insane volumes on open
Whoever bought today’s highs is a moron and deserves to lose money
The Fed lied and portfolios died.
I am back betting against gold my friend.
seriously? I’m long gold going into today on bet of no rate raise. got that and i like it even more based on the super dovish statement Fed came out with.
against gold??? I dunno about that play…
What’s your take? Haven’t heard in awhile…
uh oh. i feel a “let’s fade this guy” trade coming on with your question.
a couple things I guess. bears haven’t been able to break $1100 support. I’m just looking for a bounce to 1150. nothing long term.
Also, statement from fed came out more dovish than past. So i think folks were thinking if not hike in Sept, maybe December. But that seems off the table for good now.
Again, just looking for a quick pop. I dunno. Care to share what you think of Gold/Miners at this point?
Fwiw… I agree with you here bchu, for the near term time. From a contrarian perspective there is nothing Bearish about Precious Metals positioning here. It is nearly identical to the beginning of last December, and the chart looks really similar as well. Thinking we probably see $1200 before we see $1100 again.
Would match up really well with some stock market Aversion…
My take at this point is that there is now serious doubt that the Fed will ever raise rates. It was always clear that they were going to leave rates at 0% for an extended period, but now they warned the market for months that they would raise and still held off.
That shows the market that the Fed is stuck in a “Fag Box” as Fly likes to say. They simply can’t ever raise rates.
IMO, unlimited 0% fed funds rate creates fear leading to higher gold prices.
We’ll see what happens
What about the market in general. Have you been out lately?
yeah. I am not playing this market long at all. There is way too much risk to the downside.
I am still of the belief that Sept 23 is going to bring a major event.
I know that, I’m trying to gauge what you’ve been doing to the downside?
best trade for the rest of the year is long the 10y (TY) I’m supersized.
Which instrument?
futures TY.
I’ve been watching that coil all year. Great spot down here.
TLT felt washed out at 118. Good volume tosay.
chiefton is making a quasi Bluestar call. To save the bond market.
I was playing around and saw that the USD/JPY hasn’t closed below its 12-month MA in three years. This appears meaningful. (This is in contrast to the 200 DMA, which seems less meaningful on this cross. I previously was interested to see the Yen above its 10-month MA and 200-day SMA for the first time in a relatively long time, but it’s done that before, resulting in whipsaws.)
http://tos.mx/rVbhY9
If we get a monthly close below the 12-month MA, I could then be bearish on the USD/JPY (i.e., bullish on the Yen). If not, though, I think we see continued Yen weakness, and you likely know what that means for the Nikkei, our equity markets, gold, and all kinds of other stuff.
Yep, I’ve been following a similar road map since the first rally in early 2013.
Last month international bond purchases of US instruments were way below normal. In order to buy US bonds the int’l entity first has to exchange their money into dollars. That is the key.
I want to start trading futures…not sure where to do so. Anyone?
I would be a buyer here of Nikkei futures @ 18175
As in broker?
Yes who do folks use?
Interactive brokers.
I use Optimus Futures/Amp Global. If you want to place the occasional trade Thinkorswim is good too. Just very high margins.
OA, how come many brokers don’t offer futures trading? I trade with Fidelity and Options House, and neither offers it.
OA- you gonna leave us hanging on your perspective on gold here?
I wasn’t asking him about Gold, I was asking his take on the market.
Seems like consensus was no hike, so we saw a buy the rumor sell the news in equity IMO. At resistance here so makes sense. However, bonds (check out TLT and HYG) traded up, pushing yields down. I think move continues to be higher. We’ll see.
$NDX target of 4495 before Wednesday’s close… then we roll over. (I hate being a potential Bullish excess indicator… but that’s my stance).
Getting it started in premarket — bought SVXY and more FIT
Added to SVXY 51.74
why not xiv?
I hate these instruments — took a quick .25 and sold
Feels like Aversion?
it’s quite a long time i do not see this kind of (selling) volumes at open. sure scary
apart from vix and 3xinverse etf , $xgti buyin everything @ this level..take care if you have lil to bet as it will pop up a day for 100%+
Bought EXXI 1.32
bought more xgti..
Bought TSLA 260.86