Worst case scenario coming into today was a gap up, considering yesterdays close.
Automatically, you feel remorse for not buying yesterday, or changing your mind and flattening out at the close.
We had a pretty gridlocked open, but the $NQ_F is leading out here. What sucks about this is that all the buyers remorse crowd is going to be forced to participate up. In other words, this market rallies from here, each day until you decide to chase it.
I grabbed 3 new LT positions yesterday in $FEYE, $LULU, and $ZG. I am going to take some $SPLK today, then sit on my hands and trade the turns via the futures market. I caught 100 in the $NQ_F last night, and am long again here from $4150. I managed to get a $GC_F short in last night too at $1153.
If you missed an opportunity, don’t sacrifice risk management over fear of missing out. Chasing this thing hurts in the long run. Best case scenario, we form a range over the next few weeks.
See that excerpt from Goldman this morning? From MarketWatch…
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterAs stock futures go barreling ahead, Goldman Sachs has pushed out a bullish note for Wall Street this morning. David Kostin and his team say parallels with 1998 suggest a rebound is in store for this market, after yesterday’s correction left the S&P 500 down 11% from its May record high.
“We expect the U.S. economy will avoid contagion and continue to expand. [The] S&P 500 will rise by 11% to reach 2,100 at year-end. Such a rebound would echo the trading pattern exhibited in 1998, when U.S. equities rallied and largely ignored the Asian financial crisis,” says Kostin. History shows that stock markets tend to recover within three to four months following the end of a correction, he notes.
Shorting NQ as 4200
flipped to NQ long
It feels like we are going to retest the lows sometime this week.
You see that huge spike down on the Q’s? My guess is were going there. Look at the HUGE spike to 213 on the SPY around 12/18. We went exactly there and stopped. The robots are showing you their plans.
Uninterested in chasing here. Hoping for a dip to get out of $RHI short at target near $50 (away from desk yesterday morning – which was awesome!). At that point I’d look to initiate longs. Patience shall be my virtue, as I’ve learned the lesson of chasing many times. Hopefully enough to let those lessons stick this time.
I agree with the sentiment in AHWOA last night … I don’t think that the low would be that easy, particularly when the “tell” guys are looking to add and initiate.
This feels more like a 3-4 day pain trade, where you miss the low yesterday, miss the gap today, relent tomorrow or Thursday into slightly higher prices, then get a real flush to test or maybe take out Monday’s lows. That’s probably when the real fear sets in. Or maybe because this correction is completely absent a big news headline/event, we aren’t psychologically processing this selling with fear? Just thinking out loud.
Jeff – What do u think of the Russell being weak?
I still think we chop for awhile. There will be many divergences day to day over the next month or two, IMO.
I’m fake chowing the market and pretending to buy…when really I’m shorting this backtest of the trendline break.
You speak in Ragnar?
Been killing it?
So who gave David Kostin their AHWOA login info?
Tepper started mentioning this late last year too. As long as its being recognized, I feel in good company.
Still sticking to my guns that we will see more discouragement moves like yesterday. I highly doubt we only go through it for 3 hours or so before climbing up the wall of worry. I am thinking a fade before a dip being bought. Just my humble opinion.
Discouragement move as in 1-4 pm est yesterday. Panicy at open obviously.
98, 10, 11…all similar moves, all came back with 2 months of chop.
interesting. thanks. definitely impressed with how quick the speed died down today.
SD MHR EXXI LINE all look washed out and ready to rip the face off of shorts
Easy to convince oneself of any scenario with moves like this. The line between sheer gambling and risk-reward get blurred in times like these.
nice trade on the NQ. I pulled about 90 pts out total yesterday but not in one trade!
Big inflection point coming up here in the NQ, I think we get a big afternoon but hard to tell which way yet.
Day Traded $CLNE, +3.75%. Don’t trust the volatility. Chop could be big for a while.
Just put about 20% of the port in GDX and GDXJ. Either today or tomorrow should start the second daily cycle of the investor cycle, so we should have a good run here.
Scary.
The investor cycle has 4 to 6 weeks of movement up. The daily cycle should get us at least 12 days up. This is based on gold as the driver and the fact the miners usually move first. Not TA, but cycle theory.
which camp are you in for gold’s next move?
Up! This is the big bounce before the final fall.
Whoa – major brass there…are you counting on the stocks to rally even if the metal doesn’t?
I’m playing it safe. Lots of cycle theorist have 50 to 95% of their ports in for this bounce before the final fall to around 1000.
Why did you wait for Gold to rally so much up into resistance before initiating a position?
Because for this method you just count. The daily cycle in gold last 24 to 28 days on the average. Some count today as 22 and others get a 24 count. However, since miners generally move first, I figured today was the bottom. It would be safer to wait for a swing low, but I wanted my stop as close as possible so I took a leap of faith and decided today was the bottom for miners.
Not part of he equation.
anyone staying short GOLD after today’s dump?
Contemplating long term starters in AA and FCX. just wish they didn’t look so downright scary even at these levels
I wouldn’t be putting on any long term positions unless they were shorts
Dude, you killed it in that $UVXY trade. Congrats.
Yeah, and that was one of the best calls to pull and not get greedy. No more VXX diaries from me,good work.
That was until this afternoon. I would have gotten back in this afternoon had I been able to. Now UVXY runs to $200 without me.
A watched market never boils..
I used today’s rally to lighten up on EVERYTHING.
swinging swords like shinobi
that rally didn’t last long
#DiscouragementPhase Chop err’body up. Pain trade here is a gap up, sadly.
if your looking long this is the spot to do it. Still very risky though.
Back to the casino….long MDBX. MJ poised for a run here? TRTC and CBIS are other faves
Just highlighted a MJ portfolio of ideas in AHWOA last week or the week before. After that CBIS news.
Incredible daytrading conditions but sucks for anything else.
Back long SPXL @ 66.34. Sold the same 7 points higher this morning playing the discouragement range
“Worst case scenario coming into today was a gap up, considering yesterdays close.”
f’in spot on. wtf
Same holds true for tomorrow. Everyone sold the fuck out of this move up.
I follow a few Perma Bear blogs and they were literally all licking their chops posting about which ETFs they were going to short at the open of the bell. looks like it worked.
Ended the day short oil via DWTI.
good luck. momentum is on your side but it has held up better than the market over the past 2 days
yeah, tomorrow is going to be interesting… inventories at 10:30.
I got out. Too risky here.
too chicken to buy and hold any positions overnight – not too proud to admit that. Too many scenarios for the morning – would rather deal with them in the AM and sleep well tonight
Does anyone here have anything positive to say about ESignal?
Day traders all around the world are pissing needles right now. Looking at those screens all day, the eyes glazing over…
What’s on your shopping list Sarge? You must be in heaven in this environment.
HES becomes very attractive at 41.
NIKKEI is just saying “fuk uu chiner” and amelica. We old as fuck and don’t cale anymole