Within the next week or so, I’ll kick out my 2015 predictions. This will include a few overall macro themes, sector plays, index price targets and other fun stuff we’ll try to pick out for the upcoming year. While I don’t marry my approach to this stuff, its fun to look back and see how you generally saw the year setting up.
Here’s the 2014 outlook from last year. A few of the highlights were:
-Setting up to be much more difficult. “Year of the stock picker.” Fewer stocks will participate in pulling most of the market weight.
-SPX price target 2050
-VIX will spike to 30 later in the year
-GLD to $105
-“China is the Wild Card. Will climb the wall of worry this year. Shanghai hits 2500/2600”
-EEM hits $50
-Hot housing market
-Continued strength in alternative energy
-VSLR IPO. Explosive growth candidate.
Again, I’ll be doing my 2015 outlook around the start of the New Year. Looking forward to a much less difficult trading environment.
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hope you’re feeling better boss
Today is the first day I’ve had any energy at all. Thanks for the note, see you Monday.
BABA to 200!
My prediction: President Obama withdraws funding to the federal program that provided free WiFi to state mental hospitals. Bruce Keller is never heard from again….
C’mon GLD. You’ve only got a week left!
Looking forward to your picks OA. 2014 was the year of the SPY/DIA buy and hold. Curve balls to those that expect the same in 2015. “Let’s get this party started”.
OA – back in Oct, you noted that the $NYA was the lone index to flag a true oversold on the OA oscillator (so powerful). I now check that index as part of my daily routine. Not making a new high in late November, while some others did, kept me cautious ( & out of the fire). Does it look squirrely to you here? http://i.imgur.com/0k42sAI.png
Best trade for next two weeks: Continue to short YELP. A nice chart that sums up what’s going on “under the hood”. Enjoy.
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_30679544.jpg?1419705224
Hmm thats your best idea?
My guess is that’s the same guys as “Santa” and all those other Alias'”
Trollspotting
You’re guess would be wrong. But thanks for playing.
YELP is right up there with top takeover targets in social media. While the chart looks bad and valuation might be high, you can wake up to a 100% buyout. I’d shoot against less valuable real estate.
I think Fly makes a good point about shorting YELP. If someone yearns to wake up blown up or rich(er), just trade options in size, you’ll get your wish sooner.
my pick BAC 25
Staying away from shorting a chart breakdown such as YELP just because it “could” be a takeover candidate one day is silly. There are thousands and thousands “potential” takeover candidates traded on the exchanges. Odds are 99% it won’t happen during the time a person is trading it in a short timeframe. Short the bounces in that one and just follow the chart. It’s very weak here.
So, you claim to have bought calls in YELP a week ago. In that 4 day timeframe, YELP was actually up .71%, but you were down 30% in your calls. You proclaimed that the loss “kicked me in the nuts”, indicating a serious issue with position sizing. Now, for no rhyme or reason, you are now short YELP as your “best idea”.
And of course, YELP is up 1.38% as of right now.
The problem with your portfolio is not OA’s picks or the state of YELP’s chart, but your own mindless, aggressive trading style. Until you resolve your own trading issues, no amount of hot picks or tips will help you build wealth.
YELP looks fabulous here; expect a definitive move this week. Grabbed some $54 calls for this week. Also grabbed P looks similar.
KITE calls treating daddy well this morning. CAR-T is the place to be these days. CYBR looks to be tighting up also. With the Russell breaking out; you’d have to be an utter fool not to be in some growth names here.
Just my .2 cents
Grabbed some YHOO calls on this tight flag. Jan 2 $51.50’s
Thin, but TTS has an interesting look to it. http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TTS&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
Glad you reminded me of this Unc, was watching it in the summer and forgot about it
Former – it looks to have built a decent base. I’ve honestly never looked at it before. Knowing it’s been on your radar makes me consider it a little more..
Lol i’m guilty of wasting time searching for losers that might turnaround rather than baning coin on the proven winners but this setup is getting interesting
CAS – The Castle Wall may be one of worry soon… http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CAS&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
Close up of the 5yr vol profile for X. Multiple oversold signals of late. I like this one. http://i.imgur.com/CGBSITC.jpg
@Matt_Bear: I am shopping for some intermediate holds. I am finding it too difficult to manage shorter term options with my work load right now, so I am targeting 3 month+ hold times, but I do feel comfortable taking the risk with options. I am currently looking at 6 month+ IWM calls, and 3-5 month holds for $SUNE, $TWTR, $POT, $HACK and I can’t quite take my eyes off of $BAC. I wasn’t sure if you were shopping elsewhere and had ideas you’d want to share. I’m interested in input from others as well, but I think that Matt has been playing in this space a while, so may have a good sense of what works based on scheduling constraints and timeframes.