In the spring of 2010, I was on a beach in Texas when the market rally; an inexplicable and massive run in prices into the new year and “new economy” of green shoots; came to a sudden and abrupt end with price collapse that had the market bleeding all over itself. The catalyst? Greece.
Through to the summer of 2011, an equally massive rally backed by our “continued progress since the Great Recession” was met with a brutal beat down delivered at the hands of reality and a European Debt Crisis that had lingered for over a year to that point. The catalyst? Italy.
And now I can add to my little history book; the winter of 2011 into the spring of 2012 and an equally gargantuan price rally in everything from commodities to equities, based solely on a misperception of currency debasement in the US (that isn’t happening) and some not-so-atrocious numbers that may have little bearing to the economy. How does this end?
Well, I’ve got my money betting that you’re wrong – again. What will be the catalyst? Uh, just throwing something out there but – Portugal? Maybe Greece…again. Or perhaps the whole EU just coming apart.
The point is, I’ve seen this song and dance routine before, and it’s awful. I’ve booed you off the stage twice now, but you keep getting back up thinking “he just doesn’t see all my talent.” Well, you’re right. Because you haven’t shown any talent. What’s more, I’ve seen that there’s nothing to see there either, and I’ll boo you off the stage again.
This time, stay the fuck off it.
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100% AGREE, MAN. SAME OLD SHIT DIFFERENT DAY!!!
(laughter) there’s a Seaking Alpha article out that argues oil will stay elevated because Russia and Saudi Arabia need it to be high to balance their budgets.
Um…no? Last I checked, the U.S. needed housing to stay high to balance its budget. How’d that work out?
True story; commodity demand does not care about Saudi Arabia’s budget commitments.
yet again timing is everything =[
Something is wrong with this scenario…
I think perhaps you would not be so poor, (and would not bitch so much) if you didn’t keep coming to this particular stage show.
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(laughter) is that a Moulin Rouge quip?
Bernanke will say something in congressional testimony tomorrow to push stocks higher. Wars and rumors of wars will send oil higher. Doug Kass will tweet that hedge funds have the lowest net long exposure since the Gerald Ford administration!! Everyone is bearish and without honor! I heard today it is un-American to be bearish on anything priced in dollars. Oil? Its going higher. Gold? Its going higher. Stocks? 1550 S&P coming. BALDERDASH!
The world is an upside down cupcake but it doesn’t seem to mean anything. Trying to figure it out is interesting but nothing more than a game.