I’ve been in a very interesting meeting all morning concerning a certain reform that passed through the halls of Congress in 2009. It lasted for about an hour, and the implications of it are most intriguing. If they ever do get these exchanges up and running, I am going to have a blast watching people being filed into them getting screwed over.
That’s the thing about trying to slap a single unit of “value” on an array of products that are non-uniform (especially when that definition of value is incredibly, poorly defined). You get…inefficiencies…that can be exploited.
Ha! 2014 is going to be a shit show. There’s going to be so much movement going on, so much confusion, that there’s no way widespread abuse doesn’t come into play. Especially because the people trying to manage these exchanges don’t seem to have a clue about what it is they are doing.
The only comfort you might have is that everyone will be trying to do the same thing – so maybe you don’t notice the difference?
At any rate, I haven’t paid much attention to markets today. But I see oil, after faking you out, turned tail 180 degrees in a vertical nose dive. Ditto for the rest of the markets.
My opinion of equities and commodities has not changed in months. I’m holding short energy and oil because they are very overpriced. You can’t honestly expect to just ignore Europe. It isn’t going away, and it isn’t a small problem.
Bah! It’s no use arguing with you. I’ll just let you find out on your own.
I’m holding AEC, CLP, CCJ, SCO, ERY, physical silver, and a hefty cash position after selling out of BG and, late last year, AWK.
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Man-o-man, I just sold some AWK today, still retaining my core. It’s been my favorite portfolio buddy since last Jan per your reco.
Easy pitch…water in the SW boom.
Nice work Raul.
It’s been doing awesome. I wish I could still hold it, but my losses required a sale somewhere. And I’m more excited about my other positions.
Guess I should have sold BG earlier instead.
BDI news for you:
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/global/global-economy-shipping-baltic-dry-index-20500
That BDI really does look like an awful omen, regardless of what they say about its innacuracy lately. If China is indeed slowing down that significantly, there ain’t no amount of the Bernanke that will fix it.
Your post the other day hit the nail on the head, Cain. The real crash will come when the market internalizes the idea that SUPER LOW LOW AWESOME INTEREST RATES UNTIL 2014 is NOT code for “the Fed has your back” but rather “we can’t do SHIT until prices come down.” Until we get a taste of this reality, prices will remain artificially suspended by the notion that the Fed will provide a safety net regardless of what happens.
BDI is a bloodbath. Good find, Sikander. Glad the author pointed out that oversupply does not, by itself, explain this level of a collapse.
cain-
lot of quant screens i run say energy is very undervalued… Assuming the average company is hedged, why not go long energy stocks and short oil?
When you say energy, do you mean energy companies?