Over $1 Trillion And Counting

846 views

There was a fascinating report from Bloomberg this morning. Globally, there are now more than $1 trillion in oil and gas assets which are unrecoverable thanks to the decline in crude, excluding US shale.

Deep water, Arctic locations, tar sands, ridiculous topography…all add up to more than $1 trillion stranded. And these numbers are not inclusive of the US shale which is supposedly the heart of this story.

If you were looking for a smoking gun, pointing to this whole debate of Saudi Arabia and market share being sordid nonsense, that would be it.

But at most that proves American financial journalists are idiots. Which beckons the question: then why is crude trading below $60?

If you have the answer to that question, I’ll show you a rich man.

Abort? EURUSD In Catastrophe Mode

544 views

Down 1.3%, and counting. Oil prices are reversing hard. Greek presidency bid failed and they’re now speculating Syriza could be in power in just over one months time.

I’ve only got 25% on the table, I’m going to hang out for a few days. But I’m not adding more anytime soon.

Put 25% Cash To Work

359 views

Okay today is strong. There are dark spots, like the dollar and bonds. I know I said I would wait, but if I apply just 25% cash at these levels, I could get back to even quickly enough.

So I bought BAS, HCLP, and some VOC.

75% cash.

For Now, I Must Assume This Is A Lie

746 views

I cannot get dragged back into my old positioning, as that would be tantamount to coaxing a wounded animal in for the kill.

Watching my positions jackknife 10%, I have to keep in mind that those moves are paltry nonsense next to the 81% beat down some of them have taken…looking at you BAS.

To be sure, the quickest path to redemption is if my original research proves valid and those positions reverse back to even. It’s also the least intensive path for me; I’ve already done the work, know where to find them and what they consist of.

So it’s tempting, but I need to set some restrictions to protect myself. I’m not necessarily talking about oil prices here; it wouldn’t surprise me if oil prices rebounded a little behind the oil and energy sector stocks themselves.

I’m talking about the friggin’ dollar.

It’s much too strong, and appears to be rallying along with everything else. The EURUSD in particular is screaming crisis. I can’t buy back with this kind of carnage raging in front of my eyes. I ignored it once, and it cost me dearly.

Get Ready For Some Serious Trouble

631 views

This is no longer a matter for joking. It is time to look out, take everything in, and be dead serious. If you do not have adequate cash reserves, you had better take the proper precautions.

The recent market activity has been nothing shy of ominous. Leadership names have dropped greater than 50% in a matter of months. Debt markets are in whipsaw. Currency markets are like a ravenous sea.

If somehow, you have escaped this fate, congratulations. Now stop messing around. You are not invincible.

We need concerted efforts on the parts of central bankers, but I fear that the political situation is untenable. I understand if you are skeptical on the ability of central bankers to fix any of our underlying problems. That makes sense; because central bankers cannot fix our underlying problems. In fact, there is much to be argued that they prolong or even enable those problems.

But, that is not to say they are not still a preferable alternative to a hard stall of the system. You need to look around and realize just how much debt and financial instruments we have created here. Yes, there is no method of easily unwinding it. But if everything crashes to a halt again, a lot of innocent people are going to get hurt. Evolution is a very violent process.

100% Cash

1,734 views

I completed sales of everything today, cashing out of the markets, down more than 30% for the year.

Thus completes the most stunning reversal of fortunes to date in my life.

I’ll be laughing about this next year.

Over $1 Trillion And Counting

846 views

There was a fascinating report from Bloomberg this morning. Globally, there are now more than $1 trillion in oil and gas assets which are unrecoverable thanks to the decline in crude, excluding US shale.

Deep water, Arctic locations, tar sands, ridiculous topography…all add up to more than $1 trillion stranded. And these numbers are not inclusive of the US shale which is supposedly the heart of this story.

If you were looking for a smoking gun, pointing to this whole debate of Saudi Arabia and market share being sordid nonsense, that would be it.

But at most that proves American financial journalists are idiots. Which beckons the question: then why is crude trading below $60?

If you have the answer to that question, I’ll show you a rich man.

Abort? EURUSD In Catastrophe Mode

544 views

Down 1.3%, and counting. Oil prices are reversing hard. Greek presidency bid failed and they’re now speculating Syriza could be in power in just over one months time.

I’ve only got 25% on the table, I’m going to hang out for a few days. But I’m not adding more anytime soon.

Put 25% Cash To Work

359 views

Okay today is strong. There are dark spots, like the dollar and bonds. I know I said I would wait, but if I apply just 25% cash at these levels, I could get back to even quickly enough.

So I bought BAS, HCLP, and some VOC.

75% cash.

For Now, I Must Assume This Is A Lie

746 views

I cannot get dragged back into my old positioning, as that would be tantamount to coaxing a wounded animal in for the kill.

Watching my positions jackknife 10%, I have to keep in mind that those moves are paltry nonsense next to the 81% beat down some of them have taken…looking at you BAS.

To be sure, the quickest path to redemption is if my original research proves valid and those positions reverse back to even. It’s also the least intensive path for me; I’ve already done the work, know where to find them and what they consist of.

So it’s tempting, but I need to set some restrictions to protect myself. I’m not necessarily talking about oil prices here; it wouldn’t surprise me if oil prices rebounded a little behind the oil and energy sector stocks themselves.

I’m talking about the friggin’ dollar.

It’s much too strong, and appears to be rallying along with everything else. The EURUSD in particular is screaming crisis. I can’t buy back with this kind of carnage raging in front of my eyes. I ignored it once, and it cost me dearly.

Get Ready For Some Serious Trouble

631 views

This is no longer a matter for joking. It is time to look out, take everything in, and be dead serious. If you do not have adequate cash reserves, you had better take the proper precautions.

The recent market activity has been nothing shy of ominous. Leadership names have dropped greater than 50% in a matter of months. Debt markets are in whipsaw. Currency markets are like a ravenous sea.

If somehow, you have escaped this fate, congratulations. Now stop messing around. You are not invincible.

We need concerted efforts on the parts of central bankers, but I fear that the political situation is untenable. I understand if you are skeptical on the ability of central bankers to fix any of our underlying problems. That makes sense; because central bankers cannot fix our underlying problems. In fact, there is much to be argued that they prolong or even enable those problems.

But, that is not to say they are not still a preferable alternative to a hard stall of the system. You need to look around and realize just how much debt and financial instruments we have created here. Yes, there is no method of easily unwinding it. But if everything crashes to a halt again, a lot of innocent people are going to get hurt. Evolution is a very violent process.

100% Cash

1,734 views

I completed sales of everything today, cashing out of the markets, down more than 30% for the year.

Thus completes the most stunning reversal of fortunes to date in my life.

I’ll be laughing about this next year.