iBankBonds

791 views

Effective immediately, the 9th Floor shall be converting itself into a bond trading desk.

Under martial penalty, every comment made herein must contain in the least sense an oblique mention of at least one of the following terms:

1) Coupons (shopping excluded)
2) Face value (sexist remarks made in good fun will be admissible)
3) Maturity (not in the passing of the prepubescent into adulthood sense of the word)
4) Yield (no crop talk)

Effective immediately, every other post will just be a chart of US Treasuries.

Welcome to hell, boys and girls.

Will The Fed Save Us?

1,424 views

The markets are in full on collapse mode. 3% declines is what 2009 was made of. Even 2011 I don’t recall as being this intense – although time mutes the pain.

But will the Fed arrive to rescue us? While I deeply hope for this outcome, I’m hesitant to count on it. I see several impediments to a Fed rescue.

The first is that Yellen was very intricately involved in the first set of rescues. Yellen is a dove; but she is a dove who believes in econometrics and the ability of a central authority acting under imperfect knowledge to do good in the economy.

The trouble with that perspective is that it so frequently is revealed to be wrong. This is the central point of non-linearities in real dynamic systems, which is fundamental to the work of the Austrian economists.

Where I am afraid we are going to run into trouble is by sanctioning the first round of interventions, Yellen the dove had a buy-in on the outcomes. If she intervenes, it will cast doubt on the first round of Fed actions. Will Yellen be able to do such a thing just to protect the stock market? Or will she tell herself everything is fine, to shore up the belief that she and her peers knew what they were doing in the first round?

My second concern is that, although the market is in a state of anguish, the economy is not clearly following the path yet. A major shift in stock ownership occurred alongside the Great Recession, and so the regular citizen may be more insulated to negative stock performance than five years ago.

It might be just us out here.

Would the Fed intervene to save professionals? How much bearing does this even have on the average blue collar citizen? I am concerned that the severity of the Great Recession means the knockoff shock waves may not justify additional aid.

Of course, on the other side of things, the stock market is still heavily owned by politically connected and economically powerful persons. That has never hurt much in the past. I’d say that’s still a positive, the current and apparent political upheaval against such behavior notwithstanding.

The Beat Down Goes On

1,366 views

I have bad news for you, which is that if we’re going to judge this on the level, the market is pricing in recession.

I know it sounds bad, but that is just the way things are. This is no longer about the Eurozone; even Greek debt has come back in. The EURUSD is back above where it was. Greece has been bailed out again. The entirety of the Eurozone crisis fears that were occurring at the beginning of this meltdown have subsided…but the meltdown endures.

China took that baton and is running with it. And I am sure there’s a Brazil or Vietnam in the wings waiting for their turn next.

Energy pricing is – collapsing is too weak of a word – I don’t know how to call it. Oil is gone. Coal is gone. Nuclear is gone. Solar is gone. If you’re looking for a leading indicator, that may not be an optimistic one.

I don’t know. For the moment I’ve got enough cash to be composed about this, but these are tremors we haven’t felt since 2011 at least.

The Oil & Gas Consolidation Is Coming

1,402 views

We are soon to enter the next phase of the oil price collapse, which will take the form of industry wide mergers and acquisitions, stitching together failed businesses where the cash rich emerge on top.

Although I have been perhaps loyal to a fault with this industry, I have also warned of being on the wrong receiving end of just this very development from the start. Following BAS’ latest earnings report, management talked about this looming reality at some length.

The entire industry is failing and some are on the cusp of insolvency. Although the Saudi’s are failing in their alleged goal of destroying the US space, there will be no dawn for many of these highly leveraged and small players. BAS and others are preparing to pick through the carnage and buy out their assets for pennies on the dollar.

Those who have not maintained their asset rollover plans will be discarded via hard default; no savior come for them.

Prepare yourselves…

Sold Out Of ALDW For $25.77

1,213 views

So far for 2015, it has proceeded very much like the end of 2014 in both scope and suffering endured by my person. Summer is coming to a close and it is time to make some preparations.

I wanted more cash; watching everything that is unfolding, and knowing the frequency of recessions in the United States, I have this horrible fear that we are not done going lower yet. China is teetering on the edge of ruin; a silly place that encourages a 5:4 male to female ratio, that likes to build huge train transit systems to everywhere but where they need to be, and that loves constructing entire Potemkin cities utterly devoid of people.

So I sold entirely out of ALDW. This is exactly what it looks like; selling winners and holding on to losers. I took my almost 40% gain and walked.

The trouble is that this 40% is counterbalancing some pretty ruinous action on the other half of my portfolio. HCLP has sunk lower that I ever believed HCLP could sink. BAS is a smoldering pile of ruin. VOC…don’t even talk about it.

The oil trade is dead, brought to the end in a most severe fashion. It is hardly the only tale of sorrow, but it is perhaps the worst.

And if we see Recession 2015: Welcome The Fuck Back materialize (trademark), well then…

Oil would stay down and ALDW and all fuel ventures would join them overnight. No thank you.

At this junction, betting we don’t go into a recession is equivalent to just betting on oil. I don’t need complicated hedges, thank you very much. They’re more likely to strangle me at inconvenient moments than actually help here.

If the recession fears don’t pan out, then make no mistake everything will be going much higher very soon.

iBankBonds

791 views

Effective immediately, the 9th Floor shall be converting itself into a bond trading desk.

Under martial penalty, every comment made herein must contain in the least sense an oblique mention of at least one of the following terms:

1) Coupons (shopping excluded)
2) Face value (sexist remarks made in good fun will be admissible)
3) Maturity (not in the passing of the prepubescent into adulthood sense of the word)
4) Yield (no crop talk)

Effective immediately, every other post will just be a chart of US Treasuries.

Welcome to hell, boys and girls.

Will The Fed Save Us?

1,424 views

The markets are in full on collapse mode. 3% declines is what 2009 was made of. Even 2011 I don’t recall as being this intense – although time mutes the pain.

But will the Fed arrive to rescue us? While I deeply hope for this outcome, I’m hesitant to count on it. I see several impediments to a Fed rescue.

The first is that Yellen was very intricately involved in the first set of rescues. Yellen is a dove; but she is a dove who believes in econometrics and the ability of a central authority acting under imperfect knowledge to do good in the economy.

The trouble with that perspective is that it so frequently is revealed to be wrong. This is the central point of non-linearities in real dynamic systems, which is fundamental to the work of the Austrian economists.

Where I am afraid we are going to run into trouble is by sanctioning the first round of interventions, Yellen the dove had a buy-in on the outcomes. If she intervenes, it will cast doubt on the first round of Fed actions. Will Yellen be able to do such a thing just to protect the stock market? Or will she tell herself everything is fine, to shore up the belief that she and her peers knew what they were doing in the first round?

My second concern is that, although the market is in a state of anguish, the economy is not clearly following the path yet. A major shift in stock ownership occurred alongside the Great Recession, and so the regular citizen may be more insulated to negative stock performance than five years ago.

It might be just us out here.

Would the Fed intervene to save professionals? How much bearing does this even have on the average blue collar citizen? I am concerned that the severity of the Great Recession means the knockoff shock waves may not justify additional aid.

Of course, on the other side of things, the stock market is still heavily owned by politically connected and economically powerful persons. That has never hurt much in the past. I’d say that’s still a positive, the current and apparent political upheaval against such behavior notwithstanding.

The Beat Down Goes On

1,366 views

I have bad news for you, which is that if we’re going to judge this on the level, the market is pricing in recession.

I know it sounds bad, but that is just the way things are. This is no longer about the Eurozone; even Greek debt has come back in. The EURUSD is back above where it was. Greece has been bailed out again. The entirety of the Eurozone crisis fears that were occurring at the beginning of this meltdown have subsided…but the meltdown endures.

China took that baton and is running with it. And I am sure there’s a Brazil or Vietnam in the wings waiting for their turn next.

Energy pricing is – collapsing is too weak of a word – I don’t know how to call it. Oil is gone. Coal is gone. Nuclear is gone. Solar is gone. If you’re looking for a leading indicator, that may not be an optimistic one.

I don’t know. For the moment I’ve got enough cash to be composed about this, but these are tremors we haven’t felt since 2011 at least.

The Oil & Gas Consolidation Is Coming

1,402 views

We are soon to enter the next phase of the oil price collapse, which will take the form of industry wide mergers and acquisitions, stitching together failed businesses where the cash rich emerge on top.

Although I have been perhaps loyal to a fault with this industry, I have also warned of being on the wrong receiving end of just this very development from the start. Following BAS’ latest earnings report, management talked about this looming reality at some length.

The entire industry is failing and some are on the cusp of insolvency. Although the Saudi’s are failing in their alleged goal of destroying the US space, there will be no dawn for many of these highly leveraged and small players. BAS and others are preparing to pick through the carnage and buy out their assets for pennies on the dollar.

Those who have not maintained their asset rollover plans will be discarded via hard default; no savior come for them.

Prepare yourselves…

Sold Out Of ALDW For $25.77

1,213 views

So far for 2015, it has proceeded very much like the end of 2014 in both scope and suffering endured by my person. Summer is coming to a close and it is time to make some preparations.

I wanted more cash; watching everything that is unfolding, and knowing the frequency of recessions in the United States, I have this horrible fear that we are not done going lower yet. China is teetering on the edge of ruin; a silly place that encourages a 5:4 male to female ratio, that likes to build huge train transit systems to everywhere but where they need to be, and that loves constructing entire Potemkin cities utterly devoid of people.

So I sold entirely out of ALDW. This is exactly what it looks like; selling winners and holding on to losers. I took my almost 40% gain and walked.

The trouble is that this 40% is counterbalancing some pretty ruinous action on the other half of my portfolio. HCLP has sunk lower that I ever believed HCLP could sink. BAS is a smoldering pile of ruin. VOC…don’t even talk about it.

The oil trade is dead, brought to the end in a most severe fashion. It is hardly the only tale of sorrow, but it is perhaps the worst.

And if we see Recession 2015: Welcome The Fuck Back materialize (trademark), well then…

Oil would stay down and ALDW and all fuel ventures would join them overnight. No thank you.

At this junction, betting we don’t go into a recession is equivalent to just betting on oil. I don’t need complicated hedges, thank you very much. They’re more likely to strangle me at inconvenient moments than actually help here.

If the recession fears don’t pan out, then make no mistake everything will be going much higher very soon.