iBankCoin

Crypto Guru Calls for 6x Gain Over the Next Year — Sees No Reason Why Cryptos Can’t Be Worth More Than Gold

This is one of my favorite interviews of all time — the crypto guru — the man who called Bitcoin $10,000, professional investor who sees more inside of his crystal ball.

Mike Novogratz from Galaxy Investment Partners said the $300 billion market cap in the cryptos is ‘nothing’, juxtaposing it against the frothiest bubble of all time — Nasdaq circa 2000 at $6 trillion, stating this phenomena in cryptos is global, unlike the Nasdaq, implying that Bitcoin should replace gold.

Short term, Mike is looking for modest gains of at least 300%, and perhaps 6x by the end of 2018 — up to a $2 trillion market cap.

Plainly, Novogratz doesn’t understand why Bitcoin can’t be equal to or more in market cap than gold’s $8 trillion — suggesting the ancient metal’s glory days were behind it.

REMINDER: The CME will begin trading futures for BTC on 12/10, which means Wall Street will have a liquid market to short it.

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Vanguard is Calling for a Correction — Returns For the Next Five Years No More Than +5%

The King of passive investing, Vanguard, is out with commentary warning that a correction is just around the bend. I’ve been reading these notes for two years, especially from Goldman, and nothing evert happens. Perhaps Joe Davis, Chief Economist at Vanguard, is right this time around.

He’s predicting returns of 4-6% over the next five-fucking-years.

“It’s about having reasonable expectations,” Davis said. “Having a 10 percent negative return in the U.S. market in a calendar year has happened 40 percent of the time since 1960. That goes with the territory of being a stock investor.” He added, “It’s unreasonable to expect rates of returns, which exceeded our own bullish forecast from 2010, to continue.

The risk premium, whether corporate bond spreads or the shape of yield curve, or earnings yields for stocks, have continued to compress,” Davis said. “We’re starting to see, for first time … some measures of expected risk premiums compressed below areas where we think it can be associated with fair value.”

David adds, “don’t become overly aggressive. The next five years will be challenging, and investors need to have their eyes wide open.”

HAHAHAHA. These people are GIGANTIC FAGGOTS, making wild eyed predictions that stretch over half a decade.

He concludes:

“It’s important to separate what is expected of the global economy from the price being paid for it. In the United States, stock prices have already been bid up based on future business expansion. As markets rise and valuation on the Shiller has risen … [it] doesn’t mean we’re in bubble territory, but we have deviated from where values should be,” Davis said. Historically, low interest rates on bonds help explain why stock valuations have overshot corporate fundamental growth, but still can’t justify the valuation levels.

I suppose we’re all gonna end up on the ark, one way or another.

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OIL IS GONNA BURN

WTI is still down almost 2% and the lot of you are gleefully chuckling, like two slobs dining on two suckling pigs. For the better half of the past week, I’ve been defamed in these great halls by indecorous travelers, asking about the whereabouts of my DRIP position. At the time, I was most concerned with other topics, specifically pies, and opted to ignored these travelers, chalking them up as nothing more than whistles in the wind. Now that I’ve been afforded some time to answer all of those questions, I am very happy to answer them.

That’d be +15% from basis, on a doubled sized position.

I know what you’re going to say next: ‘but hey Fly, how about yer fackin’ NVDA short, eh? I betcha shattin’ your pantaloons over dat one, eh?’

Actually, not really. I am merely down $2 on my NVDA short, or less than 1%.

Finally, the gazillion dollar question has got to be, ‘what of the VIX Fly?’

What of it? Like a fine wine, my UVXY is in the cellar maturing. In order to realize its best self, it must stay down there a while longer and grow in profile and flavor, so that it could be decanted and enjoyed by the patient owners around the dinner table.

I’m down a wild 25% on my double sized UVXY position, an amount of terrible proportions, but expected — given the trajectory of VIX over the past 5 years. I might decide to cast the whole bottle to the side, take the bottle chards and cut your necks with them. Or, I might lean into it a little more, at just the right time, and make it a triple sized position — better positioning myself for success. Either way, I am eternally grateful for your concern and look forward to proving you to be the idiots you are in the future.

Top picks: HMNY, DRIP, GCAP, RUSS

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Market Rallies; Crude, Copper Dump Out

Who gives a shit anymore? Stocks are jimmy-rigging higher and WTI and copper are dropping out. The reasons for these moves, such as banks rallying while the yield curve flattens, are completely immaterial. All that matters now are feelings and emotions — knowing someone else is out there ready to buy our gimmick.

Shares of SSC, GROW, MARA and other Blockchain related plays are dumbfounding to the upside. I’ve got a few running hard for me now, full erections, into a field of swinging blades.

VERI and DRIP are notable for me. I just bought some GCAP — a real company getting into Blockchain trading. But since they’re real, they’re less likely to run hard into the field of swinging blades. It won’t be long now lads, prepare for it like you’d prepare for an eventual death. Affairs should be put in order, books fixed to accommodate loss.

Le Fly’s days of unlimited blog posts are coming to an end, as I will be toiling away in the field of professional money management again. This will provide me with a new fixation, one that I might share with you at some point. But for now, fuck off and watch as I bank retard coin in DRIP.

Basic materials are getting yoked, thanks to 2% losses in WTI and copper.

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Blockchain Related Stocks Go Ape to the Upside

Reminiscent of a time when companies would change their names to .com in order to make their stocks surge, we’re seeing companies leap into the Blockchain and their shares, predictably, are responding in kind. The last time I saw this was in late 1998, the very beginning of the dot com bubble — which lasted a solid two years afterwards.

There are a lot of names out there to talk about, so I’ll just do a data dump of all the one’s I’ve come across.

GBTC, XNET, DPW, MARA, GROW, SSC, OSTK, GCAP, RIOT, SRAX, PRELF, BTSC, BLKCF, BITCF, BTCS, GAHC, UBIA, MGTI, ARSC

TEUM

One of our users in Exodus even built a basket to track them.

What am I missing? Give me your tickers.

UPDATE on my absolutely horrible short oil stock position as WTI touches near YTD highs.

Fuck yourselves.

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Yield Curve Flattens Again; I’m Sure It’s Just Nothing

Good morning lads. Looks to me like that pesky yield curve is flattening again, the lowest in over a decade — down to just 57 basis points. For those of you too stupid to know, the flattening and eventual inverting of the US 2-10 yield curve has preceded every recession in the past 50 years. But I’m sure it’s just nothing. Plus anyway, Bitcoins are encroaching on $10,000.

WTI is down by 1% and futures are down ever so slightly. The Eurostoxx 50 is off by 0.27% and it’s a real snoozer of a day to be long or short. Might as well go back to sleep, traderfags.

Back to the yield curve and its overt unimportance for you gurus out there. It appears to be flattening on both sides of the Atlantic. I’m not quite sure what this means, but it’s probably nothing if I had to guess.

Here are some more important headlines for your morning considerations.

Micron target raised to $55 from $39 at Morgan Stanley
SHOP +1.7% (reports Black Friday sales exceeded $1 mln per minute at peak time)
Shopify target raised to $140 from $116 at KeyBanc Capital Mkts
SQ -4.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at BTIG Research; tgt $30
WDC -3.5% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
Roku target raised to $50 at Needham
Vale S.A. upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Ciena upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Yandex N.V. target raised to $45 from $38 at BofA/Merrill
VMware target raised to $148 from $125 at BofA/Merrill

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Bitcoin Frenzy Swells Crypto-Currency Market Cap to $300 Billion

At present valuations, the wondrous world of cryptos, lighted by the fantastical array of ICOs, created and led by the grandest malefactors of this generation, are worth more than each of the following corporations: Oracle, Home Depot, AT&T, Pfizer, China Mobile, Chevron, Proctor and Gamble, Visa, Walmart, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Visa. Very soon, the crypto market capitalization will surpass that of JP Morgan and Alibaba. While the aforementioned corporations provide good and services, the crypto world provides phantasm and wonderful tales of extraordinary wealth. By God, Bitcoins steam higher throughout the holiday seasons and into the New Year’s, then steam some more.

Presently, BTC is worth more than $9,300, pushing year to date gains to a somewhat genteel 900%. Perhaps this could serve as a mea culpa to the hordes of indecorous young men who’ve been troubled by my opposition to all of the great lunacy; I must admit immediately, I was quite wrong about the trajectory of this new form of ‘currency’ that is most certainly ‘here to stay’ that will continue to be supported by ordinary folk converting their dollars into Bitcoins at their corner stores, in one of the many Bitcoin ATMs that have blanketed the country.

Modern finance is all about transparency, of which that will be recorded on the blockchain forever. Each and every thing you will ever do shall be documented on said blockchain; but rest assured, governments will not peer into this world of opaque financial ongoings and will not request taxes to be paid on the gains realized inside of the digital world. The money is free and all of those who’ve made immense profits shall forever bathe in their genius, while ashing their cigars onto the heads of the non-believers, the stupid and the slow.

Central banks do not stand a chance against this new wave of financial freedom and will have no choice but to steer clear of the innovation. Once transactions can fully be cleared in Bitcoin, no one will have a need for dollars again and those who were early to the digital currency will be catapulted to the very heights of society and wealth.

Oh how I wished I believed and was able to buy BTC at 4 cents or 12 or $100 or $1,000 or $5,000 or $8,000.

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White House Rocked by Latest Scandal: #PIEGATE

This is the most retarded scandal to ever rock the government, this one originates from a tweet from the WH Press Sec., Sarah Huckabee Sanders. She tweeted this complete nonsense on Thanksgiving.

The subsequent result of this obvious stock photo image has led to some pretty hilarious roastings on Twitter, all well deserved, and might I say in tradition with American bullying and the festivities of the holiday season. We are a very charitable people, none more charitable than with our sharp barbed insults.

Now there are some out there on the right who are actually defending the alleged chocolate pecan pie, for reasons that escape the basis tenants of reason and justice. Clearly, Sarah Sanders is fucking with people and making a mockery of her position. But who gives a shit anymore, right?

Hey look what I just built, a fucking orbital space cannon (OSC).

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Black Friday Sales Buoyed by ‘Blessed’ Cold Weather

The media is working over time to give retailers good press, seeing that they’re all but destroyed now. Long stories filled with anecdotal quotes from store managers litter the internet today, exclaiming the virtues being able to touch and feel items on sale, as opposed to merely buying them via Amazon. Who does that anyway, buy items online? Poppycock.

According to all media reports, retailers are back to banking coin again. But don’t tell the shareholders of M, JCP or SHLD, whose stock values have dropped by more than 40% for 2017. I’ll have you know, the cold weather in the northeast has ‘blessed’ them and people are throwing sharp elbows at each other with the hopes of being able to snag a discounted coat or two, maybe a sweater.

A Macy’s spokeswoman later confirmed that more than 16,000 people were lined up outside the Herald Square store before it opened Thursday evening. By 7 a.m. Friday, Macy’s had already sold 200,000 coats, and was on track to sell more than 1 million coats, sweaters and fleece jackets by the end of the weekend.

The Northeast has been “blessed … with cold weather,” Gennette told CNBC.

Despite all of this ‘touch and feel’ nonsense, online sales continue to surge, slowly but surely designating department stores as showcases for Amazon.

Black Friday online spending was a record $5.03 billion, up 16.9 percent over last year, according to Adobe Systems Inc. Much of that shopping is now occurring on phones, with mobile devices accounting for 54 percent of visits. Adobe said it expects Cyber Monday to be the biggest online shopping day in history, with $6.6 billion in predicted sales, a 16.5 percent increase over 2016.

The media headlines cannot give the brick and mortar retailers enough praise. Here are two wonderful headlines from CNBC and Bloomberg, one featuring what looks like my neighbor.

And physical store traffic looks to be down anywhere from 4-6%.

Physical-store traffic, meanwhile, was down 4 percent to 6 percent, Cowen & Co. analyst Oliver Chen estimates.

Retailers have tried to avoid becoming showrooms for Amazon, meaning customers look at products in their stores and then buy it from the e-commerce giant. To keep shoppers from straying, Wal-Mart and others have pumped billions into their web operations.

Sights and Sounds

Macy’s overhauled its rewards program, aiming to keep consumers loyal regardless of whether they’re online or off. A customer who shells out at least $500 a year gets free shipping and 25 percent off a day of shopping.

But the 159-year-old chain also is touting its traditional retail experience as a way to hook shoppers.

“Customers today want to go to a store — the sights, the smells, the sounds,” Chief Executive Officer Jeff Gennette said in an interview Friday.

Some retailers have more of an uphill battle. Sears Holdings Corp. saw same-store sales fall 17 percent at its flagship chain last quarter and 13 percent at its Kmart brand.

At a Sears in upstate New York, a quiet store greeted 47-year-old Nadine Charles on Friday. She’s been a regular Sears customer for years, but feels like the selection has gone downhill.

“I don’t find anything good anymore at Sears,” said Charles, a nurse with four children. “They don’t have good brands. Now I can buy things in Wal-Mart — they are cheaper and last longer.”

Please.

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CRUSHED the SPY by 50bps; Happy National Shopping Day

I drank too much last night and now feel like the room is spinning around me. Nevertheless, I press on.

I kicked out my trades for the quant portfolio today. I am pleased to report it netted 1.5%, which was 50bps better than the SPY for the week.

I adjusted the portfolio and look forward to crushing the SPY again next week. This is truly the easiest way I’ve ever banked coin — but most of you want the gunslinging, which gives me a fucking heart attack twice per week.

Over on that end, the discretionary side, shit is crazy. My NVDA short is nearing my stop, HMNY is crushing higher, and all of my inverse ETFs are on the wrong side of history. I will do something next week. I’m too damned hung over to care now.

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