Time to Do End of Year Analysis Plebs

The trades that I show here is nothing short of river boat gambling. No investor of serious thought would ever subject himself to the pangs of HMNY and UVXY in one portfolio, at the same time. But that’s my gambling personal money and I can do as I like with it. But some of you might think this is a reasonable way to invest and that is something I’ve been trying to change for the past two years here, gearing more towards a quantitative strategy by using Exodus.

Hopefully you’ve enjoyed some great gains this year — but it’s time to analyze the quality of said gains.

Here’s how you do it.

You must analyze the quality of said returns for risk. You can best do this by examining the Sharpe ratio for your portfolio. What the sharpe ratio will tell you is the level of degeneracy by which you conducted yourself all year to get said gains. As an advisor or self directed investor, it’s in your best interest to gear an investment plan with limited drawdowns and volatility.

Eventually, I will build this all into Exodus. For now, you need to find the standard deviation of your positions, which is, essentially, the distance from the mean, and then calculate the Sharpe per stock, which is the excess returns minus risk free returns divided by the standard deviation. To account for position weightings, I suggest using a multiplier from the mean size of your positions and then you’ll have a good idea how you really stack up.

This approach is only useful for long term portfolios that haven’t been traded. To attain the Sharpe for an active account, you’ll need to get the monthly returns of your accounts, minus excess returns, divided by the standard deviation for the entire portfolio.

Why do this?

Because when the market shits the bed at some point, you’re gonna want to know how risky your stocks are.

For example, CMI is up handsomely this year by 22%, yet sports a Sharpe of just 0.82 (anything under 1 is shit). On the other hand, PayPal sports a Sharpe of 3.27 to go with its 90% returns, implying its gains have been calm and genteel. The risk adjusted returns for PayPal vs CMI are of no comparison. If your portfolio is stacked with names like CMI, you’re in for a severe raping when the market turns lower.

This is merely the statistics portion of the portfolio. In order to get the investable ideas, I’m a huge believer in fundamentals and using strategies to find the very best names to invest in. I’ve been doing this on a weekly basis in Exodus and the gist of it is to find high growth companies trading at a reasonable valuation, chasing alpha — meaning high returns. This is a delicate thing to do, since high returns usually accompanies risk — but if you’re mindful of your Sharpe, you’ll be ok.

The first thing you should do is find the best market cap quintile and get exposure to it. For the past quarter, the $1-5 billion quintile performed best. However, placing all of your money in such small capped stocks is too risky — so you might want to mix in some mega caps for diversification.

Remember, the death knell for your investment career isn’t underperformance, but drawdowns. You must avoid them like the Black Death and make sure that your portfolio can withstand a bad market.

After you do that, then figure out a way to hedge your downside. I prefer to do this though risk off assets, like treasuries or possibly gold — depending on their performance vs the SPY.

What’s all the fuss about over god damned tax cuts? Would you prefer that we have high as shit corporate tax rates, because…?

Well, because why you stupid shits?

Sure, government needs money so they can waste more of it. But what if we gave them less and instead placed said money into the hands of those EVIL FUCKING rich people, who are actually pretty good at managing money; what if we did that instead? Perhaps the economy could grow at 4% and perhaps there will be more jobs for the blue collared people strewn out across these great lands.

“There is but one season of the year when salmon should be served hot at a choice repast; that is in the spring and early summer, and even then it is too satisfying, nut sufficiently delicate. The man who gives salmon during the winter, I care not what sauce he serves with it, does an injury to himself and his guests.” — Ward McCallister

It would make sense that the tax cuts would help those who actually pay the taxes right? So this isn’t exactly shocking revelations. When the Trumpinator stole the election from Hillary, he never promised to help coal miners with grand tax cuts; that’d be retarded — even by his own standards. He promised MOAR jobs — because Mexico and China had been stealing them. While the latter hasn’t been remedied and the great big southern border wall will never be built, the least we can do is make rich people so god damned fucking rich, well, they’ll start new companies just for the hell of it — employing more coal miners to mind their wares across the nation.

Rich people are just fine, except when said wealth is intermingled with power. It’s the holiday season; hug a rich person and quit being so god damned evil.

I hate fake news. I know my haters will rub in my UVXY trade come Monday, but you must grant me a small bit of pity — for I am a victim of a most horrendous dose of FAKE NEWS.

Those motherfuckers from ABC need to refund me for any losses that come my way next week.

CLARIFICATION of ABC News Special Report: Flynn prepared to testify that President-elect Donald Trump directed him to make contact with the Russians *during the transition* — initially as a way to work together to fight ISIS in Syria, confidant now says. https://t.co/ewrkVZBTbc pic.twitter.com/GQAKwT1Eda

— ABC News (@ABC) December 2, 2017

Nevertheless, I do not believe any of this so called retraction. There’s no way Flynn just pleaded guilty to lying without giving up anyone else.

I don't believe the ABC news error. Flynn is a rat. I know a rat when I see one pic.twitter.com/hnqwufLKkk

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) December 2, 2017

The response on Twitter has been apeshit with a side order to horseshit. Lots of shit flying these days.

This isn't a clarification, it's a huge correction and one that took hours to do. https://t.co/rYozu7x8Kl

— andrew kaczynski? (@KFILE) December 2, 2017

.@ABC “news” owes it viewers an apology. Calling false reporting a “clarification” is a cop out and just another reason for the decline in trust of the media

— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) December 2, 2017

Oops. https://t.co/ks08cflvxy

— Brit Hume (@brithume) December 2, 2017

What ABC did today is completely inexcusable. Either they can’t READ/THINK —or— they wanted so badly to destroy our President that they ran with a total manipulation. FAKE!

— Andy Swan (@AndySwan) December 2, 2017

Big, big correction from ABC News https://t.co/VLiR8sH0t8

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) December 2, 2017

This is a huge blunder by ABC today and it impacted the market today: “ABC News Issues On-Air Clarification to Report About Flynn Russian Outreach and Trump | Mediaite https://t.co/5cHVbBeaQP

— Greta Van Susteren (@greta) December 2, 2017

A “journalist” at ABC falsely reporting the news on Flynn’s plea agreement, which directly caused the market to drop, is a good example of what POTUS labels #FakeNews https://t.co/4350fynF2J

— Nick Short ?? (@PoliticalShort) December 2, 2017

FUCKING CHUCK WOOLERY

LINE THIS ABC News scorched over ‘correction’ to Flynn story that tanked the stock market https://t.co/5aWyS9RG5e via @theblaze

— Chuck Woolery (@chuckwoolery) December 2, 2017

In case you’re wondering about Nixon’s impeachment and how it affected markets.

Oh no, you're factually wrong. The market cared a lot about Watergate. When there were bad events for Nixon, DJI tanked. As it did w/ ABC report, but not with just Flynn news pic.twitter.com/63GEAa2L8Y

— Joana Piercy (@JoPiercy) December 2, 2017

My sense.

I am going to sue @ABC for inducing me to buy $uvxy. Fuckers pic.twitter.com/1nbcI0xhi9

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) December 2, 2017

I had to run some errands today, look into some office space, and saw markets made a late day rally — which prompted some of you indecorous types to respond glibly, boastful, filled with hubris. Remember, pride always comes before the fall. If you’re not careful and humble yourself, you might very well find yourselves in the midst of a ‘fag box‘ — trapped in outer-fucking-space.

The fact that Trump is gonna swing from the gibbet and markets rallied 200+ points off the morning lows is somewhat ridiculous, when taking into consideration how stupid the lot of you are. I am, unequivocally, long a handsome amount of UVXY, with a basis around $15.50. I am short BAC, NVDA and long RUSS — because Russia is going to burn. On the long end, I own UCTT, WLK, GCAP, HMNY, FIZZ and AQ. It was a poor week for momentum related names — but a fine week if you were chasing alpha.

Over in my quant portfolio, I gained 1.93%, which was about 30bps better than the SPY. I am able to do this because I position my portfolio where the money is flowing, each and every week. First, I analyze by market caps. After choosing the quintile that performed best, I apply my fundamental screen to it — and then finally choose 2 stocks per 8 sectors based on their ‘hybrid score’ generated by Exodus. The hybrid score is a combination of fundamentals and technicals. This ensures that I am buying the very best stocks, both fundamentally and technically, in the market.

And voila…I fucking manhandle and crush markets each and every week and don’t even have to break a sweat to do so.

All that said, I am prepared to preside over you, atop a hideous mountain of flaming skulls — ushering in the new apocalypse, which shall first drain the blood of the wicked and the weak.

A wave of sellers smashed through the market over the past few minutes on news that Gen. Flynn will testify against President Trump, claiming that the President ordered him to speak to the Russians. Whether this is a big deal or not is somewhat immaterial. The fact that they lied about it is what’s important. While we do not know the extent of the damage this will do to the President, it is a woeful development — one that could lead to the resignation or impeachment of Trump.

For months, I’ve been hearing from DC circles that by December Trump would be out. Coincidentally, on 12/1/17, this news hits. I am of the belief those in the know were aware of this testimony, which is why Trump’s agenda has been placed on hold.

For markets, this is ruinous, as it adds a great amount of uncertainty. I do not expect Trumpsters to take this lying down and this might very well spark mass protests on both sides of the aisle.

The Dow is off by more than 200, Nasdaq -100.

For me, this changes everything about the market. As such, I sold out of VERI and VUZI, two of my more volatile names and bought more UVXY. This is a quadruple down on my VIX trade, one fully endorsed by The Devil, who said to me yesterday he thought UVXY could hit $120. That is not a typo. We discussed this in Exodus yesterday.

It’s over Trumptards. The day of the rope beckons and the end game is near. Deep statefags win again.

Unrelated: I made changes in my quant account, which is in the $1-5b quintile.

What a lovely, lovely day. Markets are somewhat tepid, but bitcoins are exploding with joy all over the market. As I write this, BTC is +666 or 6.66% for the session, a rather evil and devilish move if I don’t say so myself. For those of you, like me, who do not want to open a fucking crypto wallet, there are manners by which you could profit from this craze. Because whether you believe in it or not, it’s happening. Right? So, as the popularity increases, companies who profit from the proliferation are a most interesting endeavor.

I am talking about GCAP, of course. This is a real company, doing $80-$100 million per quarter in revenues — trading services. They are going to start offering their services in cryptos. Any fucking idea how big that could be?

Pretty big.

Other crypto related equities moving higher include: MARA, DPW, XNET, RIOT, PRELF, GROW and SRAX.

Shares of OSTK continue lower, however.

Busy day for yours truly. I will be executing my quant trades soon, which once again beat the SPY — coming in at +1.98% for the week.

Stay tuned.

Trump’s tax bill is dead, or at least on ice, as the perverts in Congress find other things to do other than run the government. How’s that gigantic an beautiful southern border wall coming along? With the tax bill all but dead and Trump fucking with Schumer and Pelosi on twitter, a government shutdown is all but a foregone conclusion. Apparently, he told aids that a shutdown would help him in the polls, or something to that effect.

The Germans seem to be quite sad that Americans aren’t getting tax cuts, seeing that their markets are off by 1%. Here in the great United Steaks, Dow futures -66, Nasdaq -37.

Dare I say, today is a fine day for VIX players?

Republicans Senators are working hard to pass the biggest Tax Cuts in the history of our Country. The Bill is getting better and better. This is a once in a generation chance. Obstructionist Dems trying to block because they think it is too good and will not be given the credit!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 1, 2017

WTI is higher by 0.7% and Bitcoin just broke $10,000 again. Congrats to all of you crypto-ballers out there. Oh, also, the yield curve is now just 60bps.

Here’s some other news that might tickle your fancy.

Cummins downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
L Brands target raised to $64 at Telsey Advisory Group post Nov comps
Allegiant Travel target raised to $158 at Cowen following FY18 guidance
Regeneron Pharma downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $380 from $480
Stifel Financial upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Tiffany & Co upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts

Oh shit, IU love Bitcoin now.

As the year winds down, I think we can all agree that this has been an exhibition of absolute failure for this Presidency. But the failures aren’t so much his fault, as they are purposeful and deliberate fuck ups by the GOP establishment shills in an effort to give the impression that Trump is retarded. The problem with this strategy is that it feeds into Trump’s populist schtick. He couldn’t care less if democrats ransacked GOPfags in 2018 or not.

The more I look at this Presidency the more I believe his sole purpose there is to clean out rat lines and install new ones. Out with the old guard and in with the new sort of thing. You can practically see the tension on all of the faces in the GOP and DEM ranks — completely and totally out of their elements dealing with a shit-posting Trump.

Now his tax cuts look to be dead. Oh well.

Via Politico:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said the next vote in the tax debate will come at 11 a.m. Friday, as work continues behind the scenes to win over skeptical deficit hawks and other hold-outs.

Multiple GOP senators leaving the chamber after a dramatic late afternoon vote said a key proposal for deficit hawks — a trigger to raise tax rates if sufficient economic growth did not materialize — would not pass procedural muster and would need to find something else to satisfy the bloc of deficit hawk holdouts, led by Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.).

“It doesn’t look like the trigger is going to work, according to the parliamentarian,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “So we have an alternative, frankly: a tax increase we don’t want to do to try to address Sen. Corker’s concerns.”

Corker told reporters: “My understanding is, that the parliamentarian has ruled against it so they’re just going to automatically put [tax increases] in, period.” Corker and Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said the revenue raised with tax increases — which senators say would kick in six years after the enactment of the tax legislation — would total about $350 billion, although Cornyn suggested that figure may need to go higher.

Nasdaq futures are down 19, Dow off by 55. The market rose by 300+ on the hopes of a deal. Now that the deal has been scuttled, I fully expect the market to rise by another 300.

This is an olde school strategy, not as old as the Matringale Gentleman Tactic, but it’s in iBC lore. I’m bought a stock based purely on the theory that human beings are dumb enough to shoot for round numbers. The $100 roll is a trade that is executed at around $97-98 per share in the hopes that it’ll immediately shoot to $106. See, once a stock breaks the magical plane of $100, it has no choice but to jimmy its way up to $106.

That’s the way the world works. Do not argue with physics.

Ergo, and this goes without saying, I am long a decent quantity of WLK, for the win, for the $100 roll.

As you were.

NOTE: I sold out of AAL for a 8% win.

I once had a sales manager who hated John McCain with all of his guts. He used to tell me that John used to crash his airplanes on purpose in Vietnam, in order to one day become a Senator. At the time, being in my early 20s, I scoffed at these ideas and thought my manager was out of his fucking mind. After many years of watching John McCain do some truly crazy things, in my back of my mind, I always thought what my sales manager used to say: “that fucking John McCain is a traitor. He was the worst pilot in American history, Fly. I’ll tell ya, he crashed those planes on purpose, in order to become a Senator.”

Other than that, my manager was a very sweet man.

I wonder what my old manager thinks now, seeing that John ‘shot down 5 times’ McCain just bailed out the country by acquiescing to tax cuts?

“After careful thought and consideration, I have decided to support the Senate tax reform bill,” McCain said in a statement Thursday. “I believe this legislation, though far from perfect, would enhance American competitiveness, boost the economy, and provide long overdue tax relief for middle class families.”

Let’s not make this political, please. Tax cuts are good, even if it means letting rich people keep more of their money. Hell, I know and like a lot of rich people. As a matter of fact, most of the people I know and cavort with are rich. I can tell you this with a high degree of confidence, having lived on both sides of the fence, rich people are more decent than the poor. If anything, we should HIKE taxes on the poor, as an incentive of sorts to make them work harder — get out to their miserable rut. Truth be told, poverty is more or less a byproduct of inferior genes and intelligence. Sure, there are some wicked smart homeless men playing chess in NYC. But those are anomalies, likely the result of wanton alcoholism which ruined an otherwise decent genetic make up.

If you’re not blessed with good genes and a high IQ, the only way to get rich is by luck or really hard work — be obstinate about it. When everyone else runs home to a potted roast, stay at work and put in the extra mile; it will pay off.

Back to stocks. Tax cuts means multiple expansion. At 22x current earnings, the market is already frothy. Nevertheless, tax cuts can justify these levels and take a large decline off the table. In other words, we might not rip higher from here, but we’re also less likely to plummet.