The Close Has Been Crashed; Prepare for a Monstrous Morning

The market opened swell and then heaved and tipped over and trickled down all day and into the final hours let loose to the downside — capsizing those who bought the open. The mood is grim and the Dow off by 250. No one likes the tape and it’s just more of the same — bullshit served up daily accentuated by a bull market in cryptos — leaving more and more people to give up on equities in search of warmer climes.

Ten Thousand suns cannot warm up the earth now, as we’re tethered to the turning of the leaves of October — colder weather and worse markets. We are almost assured destruction now and not much else can get in the way of it. I traded tight and narrow today, opting for only a few positions at a time. By the end of the session, I found myself 15% long SOXS with limited exposure to stocks — a hedged approach — finished at session highs of +145bps.

Le Fly was born to trade in these markets and I look forward to the black out of the sun soon and hell freezing over and all of the plebs who’ve done so well these past few years throw out into the maelstrom and stampeded into the earth and back into dust.

I thought we might’ve had something there — but no. I cleared out all of my positions except BABA leaps and bought some SOXS for the novelty, locking in a +125bps gain for the day.

I might re-enter towards the end of the day, but it will not be bold and it will be hedged. I am done (for now) with swinging for the fences in favor of a more methodical method. The market isn’t what we want it to be and it’s important we root ourselves in the reality of the situation instead of hope.

I’m biased towards the basic material trade and the oils are still up, but sharply off their highs. I’d rather buy back in at the end of the day, even if higher, than have to watch this shit tape churn and burn.

I went through a nightmarish sojourn into plebeian society and lost money during September, thinking my entire world was over and my talents gone like a 38 year old baseball player. I covered my shorts this morning and some longs, upped cash to more than 40% and presently sit with a rather ribald gain of 1.6%.

My gains could be MOAR and they could always be greater — but I am not being sucked into your depraved world of pennied stocks and failed momentum cycles again. I sit with several old man stocks, one or two Chinese burritos, and ag chem stocks — because the world needs food and the prices for everything is going up.

My oil exposure has been reduced to just 1 stock and I’d like to revisit several of the names I sold today — perhaps as early as this afternoon.

I am always wary of morning trade and prefer to lock in gains when I can and buy back later, especially after such a miserable month and my back up against the wall.

Thus far, this tape looks good and I see little reason to fear being long.

The commodity squeeze is on with full force into the winter freeze. Small plebs will freeze to death all across Europe and perhaps here too in the states, all thanks to imaginary supply chain disruptions caused by, inexorably, fuckery largess on behalf of corporate America who do not believe for fucks sake this demand can keep up and instead of hiring more plebs at $15 per hr opt to ride it out — causing backlogs and delays and sheer chicanery.

Now we have oil broaching $80 WTI en route without question to $100 and the US treasury yields are spiking, causing our retarded government to concoct more ways at servicing the $30 trillion they’ve borrowed for the sake of fulfilling the mandates brought forth by the Immigration Act of 1965.

Xmas is around the corner, but before that is Thanksgiving and a meat shortage will menace supply chains there too — possibly to the point of you being forced to carve a delicious BEYOND MEAT Turkey this year at the table. During Xmas, none of your things will arrive in time because ships from China cannot dock at the Port of Los Angeles due to 40 day delays caused by lack of port workers — and all of your children will cry because of it. You’ll need to come up with creative lies to explain why Santa Claus skipped over your house this year, or be brave enough to tell them they were in fact too naughty to deserve any gifts this year. All of this exacerbated by a bourgeois race towards tyranny — people being FIRED from their jobs, “essential jobs” — because they didn’t take the right medicine prescribed to them by the state in the time frame acceptable by the state — ostracized and cast out into the cold as filth, people with potential disease and/or ignorance so acute they deserve to starve to death along with their children.

It’s as if they’re trying their best to collapse this all at once — providing even greater reason to be very long BTC and ETH because fiat currencies are complete shit and one day soon they might all collapse.

Meanwhile, morons are trading pictures on Openseas and embarking on great trades — making 1000x their money in little more than a fortnight. I will tell you this now, at no point along this bumpy market road have I seen more reasons to collapse this market. We do not have the fundamental maladies and leverage of 2008 — but we have everything else.

‘Tis is not the season to bet against stocks and these things are easily forecasted in advance — by watching the bond markets. We have a most interesting scene in the US treasury market now — which in fact if it worsens can lead to a very very crashy equity tape. Presently, keep your eyes peeled to both oil and the 10yr bonds and know the inflation squeeze is on in full force and this will require you to stay focused and not veer off back into penny stock tech bullshit catamite stocks, but instead remain fixed on chemicals, steel, coking coal, ag chemicals, oil and gas and down the line of drilling and equipment services. You will want to remain long the names with HIGH MARGINS you fucking idiots and avoid the one’s with margins less than 50%.

I can comfortably say my cold streak is over. Early this week I got tossed into the blender and sank another 4% on top of the 10% shed in September. I was at my low point and I stared into the black abyss with my black heart and I won. I reversed and went higher — because I stopped chasing momentum. I will no longer chase pennies like a dog after bone and instead opt for more macro strategic plays, until I make back what I lost.

I made +110bps today via a blend of shorts and longs, leaning towards an inflation narrative and short bonds. I am fully invested, but also hedged, and the tape was ugly as a bitch into the final hour. We can expect fireworks next week and we’re not looking forward to it because the market hasn’t been forgiving.

We have a holiday on Monday, HAPPY Columbus Day — a great man indeud who is wantonly hated inside House Fly. Since I’ve never met the chap and prefer not to mold my opinions from scandal — I can only assume he was a great man because of all the fine statues of him around the world. Just like in 300 years people will reflect upon George Floyd and view him as something of a civil rights hero, I too have the opinion of Christopher Columbus that he was a great navigator.

The fact the Indians got REKT and lost their lands is wholly due to their field commanders being fucking morons.

DOOM awaits.

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CORRECTION: Markets no longer close for Columbus Day and instead starting 2022 will close for Juneteenth pic.twitter.com/cIaHBG4Dm0

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 8, 2021

Good morning fucked faces!

I entreat you with gains once again, as I am smartly positioned amongst a pastiche of holdings appreciating in value. I will not relinquish these money making ideas for free. Oh no indeed I shall not, for that is for PAYING members of Stocklabs. However, I will tell you that I bought leaps on BABA, slightly out of the money — looking for the stock to surge in 2022. I also am heavily SHORT the US treasury bond via TMV and I am long an array of oil and ag names, with a heavy hedge against small caps via TZA.

Losses are stomped the fuck out fast at 2% and I do not have patience any more for small capped shit. Keep your penny ideas to yourself you piece of shit.

I am up 1.25%, on another leisurely day at House Fly. Cafe Du Monde is not FESTOONED on my walls this morning and I will have you know that I consumed a delicious pumpkin beignet this morning, which is news because I typically eschew carbs — because fat fucks eat carbs.

Into the afternoon, expect chicanery, but the oil trade looks SAFU. Lots of late money coming with fortunes in mind.

Also, into the weekend, it’s possible BTC-ETH will moon. I am long BTBT as my sole miner play right now.

This was NOT the storybook ending to an otherwise joyous day. Markets dove lower and lower since lunch and offered little to no respite into the close, ahead of a jobs report.

I positioned for inflation and higher rates, but a TZA hedge of 10%. I own some oil, some tech, and a few Chinese stocks and will certainly lose money if market trade down tomorrow; but there is a chance, a small one albeit, that today’s fade was nothing more than uncertainty and we’ll get back to punching faces the fuck off tomorrow morning.

If we gap lower tomorrow, depending on my PNL, I might want to hold and wait for a turn-around. However, if I am up in the morning, I might just op for 100% cash, as this market is uneasy and filled with a variety of ways to annihilate traders.

No penny stocks. No pumps, only strategic positions based off economic themes for the near term future.

I close the session +160bps, about 30bps off session highs.

Congrats to all involved.

In 2008 I created a time machine able to navigate the markets and opened it up to the public to use, in order to make themselves rich. Most only read the blog, or now troll me on Twitter. Many have joined our ranks, from The PPT to Exodus and now Stocklabs — a timeline of innovation and progress. One thing has remained constant however, the oversold readings from which our platform is built around…it continues to perform with magical qualities.

Here we are wrapping up another successful oversold cycle, and yet many just want SHIB added to the matrix so that they can track it while “catching floors” in Openseas — toiling VERY HARD 23hrs per day for money. You work and work and work and work for money and you buy stuff with it and then you feeeeeeeeel good about yourselves because you did what other’s couldn’t.

Well now — I HAVE A FUCKING TIME MACHINE THAT TIMES MARKET BOTTOMS so fuck yourself.

There I was, oh indeed there I was. Markets were up sharply in the pre-market and I was quite pleased with myself, quite pleased indeed. I went on over to he kitchen to make some coffee — scrubbed my stainlesss steal French Press and even shined it to perfection. I brought some water to a boil and dropped 3 tablespoons (rather precise) of Cafe Du Monde half chicory, half coffee blend into the container and then poured the water in, gently.

My oven was ringing. Must be the mini chocolate croissants I heated up for myself. Rather delicious treat on a day like today, dare I say. I grabbed a plate and placed the warmed croissants on them, took a large mug and poured a little milk in it and then balanced all of it onto my laptop, in addition to my iPad and iPhone and then descended downstairs into my walk-out basement — where I keep all of my monitors and PCs humming for trading.

With one arm balancing all of that, hot teeming coffee inside of my wonderful stainless steel French press, I took the other hand and slammed the door shut behind me — because the fucking dogs. I entered the office area downstairs and felt like classical music. “Why not?” I asked myself.

“Alexa — put on WQXR.’

She complied.

I walked over to this round mini table where I usually place my coffee, it’s up against a wall which is sandwiched between a large window and the walkout door to the yard. A wonderful view of the water is just ahead and the climate was nice and comfy this morning, so I was feeling good, in both mind and spirit.

I leaned over to place this Rube Goldberg contraption down onto this book I have on the table, a book about castles in England and Ireland, and what happened next is something of a tragedy.

THE ENTIRE FUCKING FRENCH PRESSS LEPT OUT FROM MY HANDS, as if I was a waiter in a scene out of a bad comedy, and it crashed against the wall — disconnecting and spilling in its entirety onto the floor — Cafe Du Monde grinds FESTOONED all over the walls like I killed a bag of Folgers with a log splitter. Then my laptop fell into the coffee traveling fast towards my area rugs and then my iPhone. It fell face down into the coffee spill and then a chocolate croissant (I saved one and ate it) and finally my iPad.

I ran into the bathroom and took one of Mrs Fly’s favorite towels and sopped it alllllllll up. I took the towel and sopped it up!

I have been cleaning Cafe Du Monde coffee grinds for the better part of the last 30 mins.

Time to trade now

It was a choppy session. I personally know of three people caught inside of the swinging guillotine who lost their heads and much more. Entire brokerage accounts wiped out clean during this cantankerous market. I have traded in and out 73 times today, both long and short, desperate to maintain equanimity at all times, ensuring a win.

I did exactly that, closing the session +70bps, closing the day almost long with a blend of stocks not exactly too risky, also hedged with a little SQQQ.

My big position is NVDA, nearly 25% of my account. I wanted exposure to the semis. Why bother with any other name?

I am not certain we are heading up, but feel as if the leisure trade, the arrogant one, is to sell short. I see these people for who and what they are — mountebanks — Twitter financial analysts. I’d like to drive rail-rods through their heads.

Enough of me being violent. After all, I am a giant pussy for threatening good people online. I must really enjoy being this cyberbully who goes around all day telling people to FUCK OFF. Maybe one day, I will get the chance to tell people to do that in real life!

I am not playing the pennies. Fuck you with the pennies. I know I was a big advocate of BIG DICKED GAINS via pennies. But the market is a sick fuck and I want no part of it.

My fav ideas now are broker dealer order flow — companies like ICE, VIRT and CME.