FADE ALL OPENS FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIVES

How many times does this need to happen before we learn — never trust the opens. All day the “broader indices” show strength but the good folks in Stocklabs, outfitted with the very best analytics and tools, knew better. The smaller capped names were getting drilled all day and can see that through a chart of the IWM.

Lo and behold, the Russell gave it all up, resulting in RUINOUS LOSSES for those who bought the open with the hopes of making it.

Look at our themed indices, DRILLED from the highs as represented in % from session highs. This of course was telecasted at 9:30am when SAAS stocks opened down 1%.

On the other hand, I’m an Ethereum Millionaire again and I am hopeful for continued gains — but would not be surprised if we pulled back viciously this weekend. To celebrate this momentous occasion, dare I suggest buying a very RARE ETH MILLIONAIRE HAT?

For the session I made 70bps, pushing my gains to 5.1% for the month. At the highs I was +1.1% and pulled back in the final hour. I threw on a TZA hedge and will most likely repeat on Monday what I did today, which is sell my longs first and keep the inverse ETF, as the market fades back into the red oblivion which it has lived in since February.

A few rough points:

RECORD backwardation in copper now, as inventories reach crisis levels.
ZINC up more than 7% and AA is higher by 13% for the session, as people clamor for anything with exposure to metals.
Big caps up; small weak to down

More of the same trends persist. Sell all opens. Trade light and small intraday — load up near the close.

We’re still up and plenty of stocks are near session highs; but I don’t give a fuck. I am out of all but my TZA hedge and BABA calls, content with +0.85% for the session. I reserve the right to change this portfolio constitution at any time and this blog isn’t meant for investment advice.

Understand something: I am a superior mind when it comes to investments and any long dated bets against my acumen will leave you or anything else in ruins.

My MTD gains now exceed 5% and I am happy to amble along for the balance of the month in methodical fashion.

After 3pm we had a dip but that dip was sopped up and we ramped into the close, cementing today as a great day for MOMO traders. There was, however, discernible weakness in small caps — causing me to hedge against the Russell while positioning for tomorrow in an array of larger capped stocks from all industries.

I am purposely eschewing riskier investments in favor of high win rate bets, presently +4.3% for October. If I could double said gains I will be happy. While some of the people/traders/misfits inside Stocklabs made 10% today alone, I view those returns as rather ribald and prefer a more austere mode of investment — one designed to adhere to traditional money management methods.

While the lambo driving FIN-TWIT cognoscenti continues to diamond hand their investments into assured destruction, “The Fly” plods along steadily increasing his wealth in a classic tortoise vs hare race towards victory.

We’ve been trading in a tight range in the Russell since February and I don’t believe you should get too overly excited over today’s extravagant +240 point NASDAQ splurge. While it’s true the right stocks are running and ETH and BTC encroach on record highs in spite of what the catamite Peter Schiff has to say about it.

Even with reserve, one should not be net short into a melt up but at a minimum cautious not to squander recently earned gains. I am only up 55bps today, after selling all in the morning and removing a downside hedge and have not invested much since, other than a little upside SPY ETF, NVDA and RNG. Although I wanted to be up 3% in the morning I wasn’t — partly due to my Chinese positions which underperformed thanks to more communist chicanery, menacing their financial institutions with threats in Chinese newspapers this morning. Nevertheless, I remain committed to a more circumspect approach to my investments and will not be lured back into the fray to chase down stocks like an oily dog in an oily oil field.

I will position for tomorrow today and will not take on too much risk — because I have made back nearly half of last month’s losses and will avoid at all costs to give even a penny of it back.

The markets closed strong, up more than 110 NASDAQS — led higher by an array of tech stocks. A close like this, typically, leaves traders feeling good and strong about the future — since the price action was bullish. In bear markets it is exactly days like this that lure people back in, only to horrendously cut off their heads the following day in broken elevator trading action.

I cannot tell you for certain what tomorrow brings. I, like you, felt good about the close — but I still reduced my exposure and took on a hedge because I do not trust it. My process of trading is almost mechanical.

Buy strong stocks near session highs towards end of day in order to mitigate intra-day risk and sell at the open the next day. Trade lightly mid-day, mostly cash, and then buy those strong stocks near session highs again, perhaps with a hedge via inverse ETF.

Following many months of failed starts and charts to nowhere, I am not inclined to believe anymore and trust the market is going to break out now. If it does, I will participate, but not wholly, and instead miss out on some of the more ribald gains. I am +190% for the year, grateful to have had achieved much in the fist quarter and no longer find it necessary to chase every rabbit down every hole.

The market appears to be doing very little, but under the shit veneer is a very strong tech tape — also alt energy. These are stocks that embody and personify risk. You’d be wise to cover your shorts now and get long.

I have reallocated back into the market, to a limited degree. I am 38% cash, money reserved for the event I need to hedge should things go wayward. The market isn’t healthy and there tape isn’t strong, but one can be optimistic when seeing traditionally risk on stocks moving higher.

On the other hand, the energy trade, save uranium, has stalled. Rates have dropped and the trade looks tired, replaced by tech. It is possible the trade re-ignites tomorrow and it’s important to remember one day does not make a trend.

Nevertheless, into the final hours of today, I feel optimistic for a melt up.

Always fade morning pumps. How many times do I have to tell you? I cleaned out everything with exception to my BABA common and calls and then sat back for 10 minutes and bought two more stocks — one of which was the upside ETF for gold NUGT.

It should be noted, I was not hedged into today due oversold signals for both SPY and QQQ flashing in Stocklabs. That was the only reason why I had confidence into the morning. After the morning jump, I was on my own and opted for safety. While in safety, I took the opportune to look at many of the gold concerns. I found their technicals to be different, busting loose even, so I took a position.

I have several ideas into the afternoon session, but none of which involves me losing any money. I am +125bps now, more than double yesterdays loss and now +3.4% for October. I am positioned exactly where I want to be, in several carefully chosen position, making money and creating wealth carefully.

How bold of me. I exited the day 75% long and 25% cash. Dare I suggest the market might trade higher tomorrow? Every way I looked at it, I could not get myself to short, if even for a hedge. I closed out my SQQQ hedge late in the day and added to my longs.

I am long names like BEKE and CHPT and SE and ENPH and even TTD and ETSY — good stocks — some might say the best stocks given the tape. There are many others out there eagerly salivating for doom and would like to see nothing more than America’s cities set ablaze and the people in it trampled to death by zombie hordes.

While not a fan of post modernism Americana, I’d be bereft of guile to not attempt to take advantage of economic opportunity. My tell today was stocks like PLUG and BLDP and HUBS — lots of high risk stocks up and staying up all day.

Perhaps tomorrow I rue the day I was born and slink back into the darkest corners of my office and lament the decisions I made today. Or perhaps not. Perhaps you should shut the fuck up and stop believing doom is cast around each and every corner.

Nevertheless, I am talking my book and only request to see a small glimmer of hope into the open tomorrow, from which I might withdraw my profits and then begin a new campaign of collapsing America.

Will it last? For the second day in a row a severe drawdown from the highs in energy stocks is happening, albeit they’re still up. On average, energy stocks are off by 2.5% from session highs while at the same time SAAS stocks are running hot. While semis are still weak and the overall tone of the market still impaired, it’s worth noting rates are higher and there is a remarkable lift off in software stocks.

The contrarian might view this as fodder and instead buy more basic materials. This is what makes a market.

I am presently overweight tech and short the NASDAQ x2 — because bigger capped tech is lagging. I am tempted tp shrink my portfolio into the close and keep it small — for reasons that are obvious. Then again, perhaps the worst is behind us and we’re setting up for a Thanksgiving run to Valhalla.

If I had the answers I certainly would not give them to you. However, I remain dutifully committed to talking to myself here on this fucking blog to an audience of catamites and mountebanks alike. I will commit to a position by the close. I am down 30bps now and have no desire to push myself to any limits that might risk my position. I am done trading in and out of pennies and hate people who do.

“The Fly” is an austere investor now and only bets on sure things — possesses and time machine and uses it to his advantage, all for good. I am no longer allured by the specter of fast returns and generally unfollow people on Twitter who chase stocks around like dogs off chains.

BACK ON YOUR CHAIN and into your cages!

My hunch is for collapse. But my eyes speak otherwise.

I took the morning off. But before I did I liquidated most of my positions, tidied up a bit and left when exactly flat for the session. I have one hedge and several solar stocks and one or two oils and none of them, except the hedge, did well. While looking at the tape now, all I could see were all of the stocks I thought would go up in fact go up. For the past month or so this has been the root of my failures — missing out and then chasing and then stopping out for losses.

This time I am sticking to a plan, even if it means missing out on some fast money. I am down around 45bps now and as disheartening as that might seem, it’s really not much at all. What worse is taking 45bps and sinking downwards to -2% off the back of poorly timed and placed trades.

I am having an off day and I mean that literally. I will get back to the turret shortly and position, not for today, but for tomorrow.

Wish me luck!