It Feels Like ’02

Forget about the pending doom and prospects of another great depression for a moment. Let’s imagine the world was not in a perpetual spiral down to nothing and people/businesses were still interested in partaking in commerce, instead of just giving up and closing up shop.

What stocks have been hardest hit by the unwinding/going out of business sales by money managers?

Answer: commodities.

Let’s assume that massive deflation does not grip the Unites Steaks of America. The recession will hurt; but, eventually, asset prices will rise, mainly due to the Fed throwing freshly minted money at problems.

Things looks really bad now, as they did during the lows of 2002. I remember feeling a sense of hopelessness in the markets, with no chance for equity prices to rebound back then. My colleagues and I would make fun of the Nasdaq’s crash course, by comparing the levels to actual years on the calender, and what important shit happened during those years. We’d relish at the thought of the Nasdaq going back to “Roman Times.”

I made a living on bonds, preferred stocks and select regional banks, which for some reason outperformed back then.

Then, with the help of Greenspan cutting rates to nearly nothing, coupled with some stimulative tax policy, the market turned on a fucking dime and went straight up in 2003. I made several hundred percent on my money in ’03, getting long egregious quantities of semiconductor names.

This is the point:

The low percentage bet is to position for a total bust. It is so rare; one would have to be a fucking imbecilic moron to think it’s going to happen, no offense to ordinary morons.

The Government is reflating like a motherfucker and it is not hurting the dollar. Therefore, there is a distinct possibility the markets and economy can run and run hard, in anticipation of a late 2009 rally.

Just like in ’03, the markets will go higher, far before you read positive headlines, regarding the economy. There comes a point where the bad news is shrugged off and stocks run anyway, due to an increased level in investor confidence. It feeds upon itself.

In short, you want to get long the names/sectors that have been tossed aside by failed funds and distraught investors, such as oil, ag, tech and even some biotech.

My favorites, for now, are in the commodity sector.

Here is a list of the highest rated commodity plays, courtesy of “The PPT“:

TOTAL S.A. (ADR) (TOT: 52.67 +3.80%) 3.7
Chevron Corporation (CVX: 71.50 +2.11%) 3.68
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM: 75.65 +1.06%) 3.47
Eni S.p.A. (ADR) (E: 42.83 +4.31%) 3.46
BP plc (ADR) (BP: 47.41 +1.91%) 3.45
ConocoPhillips (COP: 51.46 +3.56%) 3.29
Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW: 8.93 -15.03%) 3.59
AGCO Corporation (AG: 27.95 +4.21%) 3.45
Joy Global Inc. (JOYG: 23.98 -0.79%) 3.44
Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP: 58.82 +9.21%) 3.17
National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV: 27.34 +7.26%) 3.43
Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS: 11.89 +2.41%) 3.41
Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI: 32.97 +5.98%) 3.24
Lufkin Industries, Inc. (LUFK: 46.38 +3.43%) 3.21
Smith International, Inc. (SII: 31.15 +4.67%) 3.17
FMC Corporation (FMC: 38.46 +8.49%) 3.36
The Dow Chemical Company (DOW: 24.94 -0.20%) 3.31
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD: 31.02 +0.94%) 3.1
Syngenta AG (ADR) (SYT: 33.83 +2.67%) 3.25
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF: 53.79 -0.68%) 3.23
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (POT: 74.76 +7.29%) 3.23
Terra Industries Inc. (TRA: 19.33 +5.57%) 3.17
The Mosaic Company (MOS: 31.56 +5.27%) 3.07
Sterlite Industries India Limited (ADR) (SLT: 5.01 +3.30%) 3.3
EnCana Corporation (USA) (ECA: 46.24 +5.79%) 3.63
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY: 50.92 +2.45%) 3.54
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG: 28.49 +3.90%) 3.4
Questar Corporation (STR: 28.77 +0.66%) 3.34
CNOOC Limited (ADR) (CEO: 65.39 +3.22%) 3.28
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN: 73.21 +4.24%) 3.11
Apache Corporation (APA: 74.28 +3.24%) 3.08
Alcoa Inc. (AA: 10.58 -1.86%) 3.34
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR: 46.35 +3.23%) 3.32
Imperial Oil Limited (USA) (IMO: 32.17 +3.77%) 3.28
Hess Corp. (HES: 53.25 +5.42%) 3.08
Sasol Limited (ADR) (SSL: 25.71 +3.34%) 3.01
ENSCO International Incorporated (ESV: 37.99 +0.58%) 3.61
Noble Corporation (NE: 28.72 +5.12%) 3.5
StatoilHydro ASA (ADR) (STO: 18.42 +5.02%) 3.34
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO: 81.93 +7.44%) 3.21
Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI: 17.66 +0.11%) 3.15
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) (PBR: 22.80 +1.33%) 3.15
Unit Corporation (UNT: 33.00 +5.26%) 3.15
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP: 29.37 +4.71%) 3.04
Pride International, Inc. (PDE: 15.58 +3.04%) 3.04
BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) (BHP: 35.50 +4.84%) 3.59
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR) (YZC: 4.93 +0.61%) 3.33
Teck Cominco Limited (USA) (TCK: 9.80 +6.75%) 3.13

Angelo Mozilo, Rich and Retired, CountryWide Financial

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“The Fly” was dutifully rewarded for sticking with his gut feeling today. Gains of more than 10% were bestowed upon Senor Tropicana, much to the chagrin of egregious bearshitters. From [[EEM]] , to The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] to [[ROM]] to [[DIG]] to [[M]] to National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , I banked fucking coin today.

The bears, hell, they were busy stepping in murder holes all day, as the sharp blade of Mother Market turned on them like an bedeviled sociopath, slashing their nuts off.

They received, without a doubt, the ominous “Black Flag” of annihilation.

Mark my words: this rally will stick and stick hard, spilling over into Asia tonight, then Europe tomorrow. My guess, this was the bottom, fuckfaces.

Enjoy it and be sure to thank “The Fly” for his steady hand, during these tumultuous times.

NOTE: “The Fly” wins again.

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NOTE: Devildog is in the front of the boat.

As you know, “The Fly” is “embedded” in his belief that the market needs to punish, and torture, short sellers, who have over stayed their welcome. While it’s true, the market is gayer than a three legged statue of Dennis Kneel; the shorts will die anyway.

I fucking traded the bear markets of ’97, ’98, 2000-2002; it does not go straight down, assholes. Learn your history, before stepping to Plutonium Petey.

Much to my chagrin, National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] can’t get out of its own way, thanks to a few rig cancellations at Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] . The mind numbing decline in commodity based stocks is equal to shooting howitzers in the face of overzealous hedge fund managers, which is a good thing. However, lots of retail pikers got taken down too.

All of this carnage has resulted in massive mistrust on Wall Street. The mistrust is causing stocks to nosedive lower, as if the world was about to get sucked into a fucking blackhole.

But, this mind set will flip on a dime, once we get a sustainable rally. Any rally lasting for more than 3 days will set off an uncontrollable wave of panic buying, which in turn will make bearshitters cry and pray for respite.

There will be no quarter for you short selling homos, only the ominous, yet Godly, “black flag.” We will take out your entrails and give them to our children to play “tie up the bad guy.” We will milk your bullshit brokerage accounts for all of its value, effectively putting you in a very bad homeless situation.

In closing, “The Fly” is at the wheel of the SS Titanic and he is not turning back. I will drive through that fucking iceberg, as if it were made from marshmallows— and toss cantankerous bearshitters into the shark infested waters below.

It really is the end of the world. Today’s failed rally is so funny/hysterical, I am doubled over in uncontrollable laughter. True story.

What a crock of shit.

Again, can Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] just get it over with and file for bankruptcy protection? Buying [[UYG]] was a mammoth error, on my behalf. However, the good news: I didn’t buy too much. But still, come on, the world markets soar and we can’t rally for more than 1 hour. How pathetic is that?

Even if we recover today, the damage has been done.

With that in mind, I find little reason to believe the Dow will hold 8,000. Hell, with all the fuckfaces out there getting panicky, this fucker can nose dive to 5,000 and they’d still say “we need a bigger flush out.”

These people are fucking idiots. They were idiots when we were going up and they are idiots now, as we go down.

With regards to the Fed:

It really doesn’t matter what they do. They can only hurt us at this point. If they cut by 50, the market will yawn it out. If they cut by 25, the panicky morons will use it as another excuse to sell.

So, just to sum things up:

The world is going to explode and your portfolios are going to zero. Which one is worse?

NOTE: I am long National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[UYG]] , [[DIG]] , [[ROM]] , [[M]] , [[EEM]] and many other stocks, with ZERO intentions of cutting losses or hedging. Gentleman/asshats: this is “Titanic Trading” and I am your captain. We are heading for some white matter in the middle of the Atlantic and I have no interest in dodging it. We have a limited amount of life boats, so act accordingly.

“The Fly wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing, badly.”

Fly- 2007

I will never forgive myself for today’s trading miscues. The cost of rehedging is so sickening, I will not do it. I will ride this goat fucking market down to 5,000. I care more about the current state of goat liver transplants, than pending market crashes.

I’m ready for my poleax. Let it be swift and mighty, as if my office was rigged with several tons of c-4 explosives. As I sit here, with about 25% cash, up around 45% for the year, I am literally willing to give back all of my gains (personal accounts), in order to prove a point. Get back to me in a few hours and I’ll think up a good enough reason.

On that cocksuckers show, Cramer decided to throw gasoline on top of the already nuclear bombed out United States Steel Corporation [[X]] and Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] . Let me tell you, my rage is becoming uncontrollable watching that man spit fire at idiots on the receiving end of the gogglebox. Thanks a lot fuckface. You did real good son, warning the common folk of X and ACI, after those shitbags knifed 80%.

In after hours trading, Cramer’s panic speech is driving shares lower. I ask: what the fuck is the point of that? He’s just interested in throwing shareholders down stairs, basically. Asshole, you missed the fucking call, 100 points ago. Don’t come on national television now and warn people it will drop another 50%. They don’t care.

To sum up this post:

I want to see Asia get drop kicked in the nuts tonight. I want to see Japanese traders take out the swords and off each other on the exchange floor. I want to see the Heng Seng go down 4,000 points tonight. And if you think I am worried about losing money; guess what: you’re fucking wrong.

“The Fly” thrives during tough times. It is my calling.

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