Angelo Mozilo, Rich and Retired, CountryWide Financial
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,443 Blog Posts
© Copyright 2007-2024 iBankCoin All rights reserved under penalty of bodily harm. DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author(s). It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. DATA INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO THE USERS "AS IS." NEITHER iBankCoin, NOR ITS AFFILIATES, NOR ANY THIRD PARTY DATA PROVIDER MAKE ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND REGARDING THE DATA INFORMATION, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. Privacy Policy
The Fly’s Ancestor at the Gunfight at the O.K. Corral (as referenced in today’s email from Art Cashin):
“The shootout did not occur at the O.K. Corral. It happened just outside the photographic studio of Camillus Fly (about one block over). . . And thanks to Fly, there was a photo or two of the heroes. Of course, the legend would remain limp if they called it the “Flare up at Fly’s Studio” so they called it the “Gunfight at the O.K. Corral.”
Who knew The Fly came from such historic lineage?
Nice to see you are up and at it this morning FLY.
What’s with the pic of Angelo
Inside joke from old blog.
It’s actually a pic of Hollywood actor George Hamilton, who happens to tan just like Angelo.
Still calling this the bottom Fly? Or were you drunk on your own piss yesterday?
Thats a nice tan. Looks like a crawfish
I do not answer questions from the likes of you.
Short X here, FLY?
Rev Shark Blog
Lower Volatility Would Set Us Up Nicely
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/29/2008 7:49 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/revsharkblog/10444774.html
Doubt is the beginning, not the end, of wisdom.
— George Iles
For the second time this month, the S&P 500 moved up more than 10% in a single day. I don’t know if that has ever happened before, but what is really surprising about it is that the index is still down nearly 20% for the month. This is a level of volatility that most of us have never seen before, and it is not easy to deal with.
The good news is that while those 10% spikes are indicative of a bear market, there is some hope that the technical conditions are changing and may give us some support for at least a little more upside. We have now had retests of lows around 840 on the S&P 500, and that may give us some support.
The key remains what I’ve been talking about for a while. We need less volatility. We need emotions to die down a bit and for some narrower ranges to emerge. The technical pattern is still somewhat similar to the bottom that formed in 1987 after the crash, but what really helped to get things moving was that after the lows of the crash were first tested, trading became less volatile. There were some very narrow days and we drifted around and even retested the lows once again in December, six weeks after the crash, but things settled down, and that provided the base we needed for upside.
Economic conditions are obviously much different now than in 1987, but the way charts are playing out is not that different. If we are going to rally, we are very likely to follow the 1987 pattern. We’ll find out soon enough, but for the moment there is some promise.
We have the Fed interest rate cut today, which is well anticipated. A half-point cut seems likely and has been priced in already. We’ll likely see some volatility on the announcement, but I don’t believe it will hold any real surprises. It will be gamed on a psychological basis by traders — not a fundamental one — which means we are going to see some fast moves.
What we badly need at this point is some consolidation and less volatility. If that occurs, I will be much more optimistic about some further upside in the near term. The potential is there, but as we have seen, volatility has not slowed, and that should keep us from being too aggressive.
We have a fairly calm start to the day and futures have turned positive after some negative indications. Overseas markets are up strongly once again, and there seems to be some worry that if you don’t load up now you will miss out on the turn. I don’t think we’ve missed the last chance to buy, so don’t get to anxious if you have cash on hand.
Hmmmm
Demand Softening for X
By Scott Rothbort
RealMoney Contributor
10/29/2008 7:39 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/industrials/10444769.html
For Rothbort’s preview heading into the United States Steel conference call, please click here.
United States Steel (X) soared by 14% in trading today. This was in part due to a much better-than-expected earnings report and in part due to a huge rally in the U.S. markets. The quarter is backward-looking, however, and not forward-looking.
Automobile sales have ground to a halt. Durable goods production is declining as well. Europe’s economy is weakening at a faster pace than the U.S., thanks to poor monetary policy and the global credit policy.
The analysts also realize these conditions and have significantly lowered expectations for the fourth quarter, however, the 85% price decline in U.S. Steel’s stock price from the summer’s high of $196 to today’s intraday low of $28.43 is just not justified. Even if you cut 2008 EPS by half in 2009 — note that the Street has $15.81 for 2009 vs. $19.36 for 2008 — the stock is selling at just over 3 times forward earnings. On top of that, it carries a yield of $3.50.
Perhaps U.S. Steel is so hated that you have to buy it here.
The company reported EPS of $7.79 on net sales of $7.312 billion. Included in EPS was a 67-cent charge for employee signing bonuses and environmental remediation. In addition, foreign currency losses of 33 cents per share were incurred. Excluding those items, U.S. Steel earned $8.79.
Capacity utilization was lower than the second quarter as production was reduced in North America and Europe as customer order rates declined. Operating margins improved for both flat-rolled and tubular segments.
Flat-rolled prices increased by $130 per ton, to $907, on a sequential basis. Flat-rolled shipments were down due to seasonality and weakness in the auto industry. Global steel demand was stable for most of the quarter. Weakness in the U.S. dollar supplemented third-quarter North American flat-rolled shipments through slab sales and export opportunities. Lower imports and manageable inventory levels helped shipments and prices during the quarter.
The European segment’s operations were down dramatically on a sequential basis. Shipments declined as market conditions deteriorated and costs increased.
Operating income was $80 per ton on shipments of 519,000 tons. The average realized price rose to $2,390.
Cash flow from operations was $1.3 billion. Free cash flow after capex and dividend payments was $572 million. U.S. Steel ended the quarter with $793 million in cash, total liquidity of $2.1 billion, and 4.7 million shares remain available under the repurchase authorization.
Management expects a decline in fourth-quarter results — current consensus is for EPS of $4.76 — due to softening demand.
About Visa
Visa Preview: Eyeing the Slowing Consumer
By Tim Melvin
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/28/2008 5:30 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/financials/10444727.html
Credit card giant Visa (V) is expected to report earnings Wednesday after the close, and investors are worried about the impact of weak consumer spending trends on the quarterly results.
Analysts currently expect the company to have earned 56 cents a share for the three months ended Sept. 30. There is no comparable quarter, as the company was not public until March of this year. Revenue is expected to come in at $1.68 billion. Surprisingly, given the weak consumer environment, estimates have been raised over the past 90 days from 40 cents to current levels. Visa’s fiscal year also ended Sept. 30, and full-year results are expected to be earnings of $2.23 on revenue of $6.22 billion.
Visa is currently the world’s largest electronic payments transaction network. Since the company does not issue cards or lend money to directly to consumers, it does not face the credit risk of competitors such as American Express (AXP) or Discover (DFS) . However a slowdown in consumer spending could reduce the fees earned form the financial institutions that issue Visa cards. These fees are derived from usage of debit as well as credit cards and are based on the volume of transactions.
The decline in retail sales in the U.S. and Europe could lead to slower growth for the company. In the third quarter conference call back in July, Visa CEO Joseph Saunders expressed his belief that the company’s business model would enable it to have a high degree of resiliency to an economic downturn and said that fourth-quarter revenue would be in the high end of expectations. He pointed out the secular shift to using plastic over standard payment methods, especially the growing use of debit cards, as reasons for continued growth at the company.
Company officials also pointed to international money transfer services and prepaid card services as drivers for growth on the rest of 2008. Analysts and investors will be watching growth in these areas carefully, as well as paying attention to the guidance for fiscal 2009.
On Tuesday, Visa announced that it has settled its lawsuit with Discover Financial Services. Discover sued Visa as well as MasterCard (MA) , alleging anti-competitive practices. That suit was settled yesterday for a payment of $1.89 billion by Visa and $862.5 million from MasterCard. The settlement will not be included in the fourth-quarter operating results but will undoubtedly be of interest to analysts on the ensuing conference call.
The conference call will begin after the earnings are released and is scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
——————————————————————————–
Dan Fitzpatrick short video on JNJ, X, and one other stock…I forget (sorry)
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10444775/3-stocks-i-saw-on-tv.html
Hey fly isn’t that the Dog’s Ferrari 430 they repossessed overnight.
That’s George Hamilton:-)
I read an article stating Chinese demand for steel will remain robust. The Chinese are doing all they can to keep the steel industry strong, since they are the biggest producer.
I say X has fallen enough and Cramer is a fucking idiot.
Bob Faulkner
Corning Lays an Egg
10/29/2008 8:18 AM EDT
GLW reported a short time ago and they finally acknowledged what’s been building for 4-5 months – inventory! After disregarding it on the last call, now they’re indicating glass sales will be down 10%-20% seqeuntially for the fourth quarter.
The handwriting was on the wall in the middle of the summer, but apparently these guys can’t read.
That’s one thing I’ll agree with you on, Cramer is a fucking idiot.
So is the person who keeps posting all on Cramer’s and the Street.com’s bullshit, day old news on this board
TMOE
Read the dates. Is today not the 29th? What’s old shit?
Die of rectal cancer you fucking faggot
Wish we were allowed online betting pools on market numbers at final close. Have a clearing house collect the wagers, verify funds, and pay out minus commissions.
DOW: 10K by Friday close.
Long several issues as noted here previously. Not selling until another +10% on each. Buying dips in old favorites after amateur hour – but not expecting a 5-figure net profit day like yesterday.
“Chinese demand for steel will remain robust”
I agree. The Chinese growth story and demand is not over. They will start to build for the Worlds Fair Expo just like they did for the olympics, all be it on a smaller scale. The Expo is where they open up and showcase their business and manufacturing capabilities to the world. They have to show off which will require more build out. I think that the Expo is 2010 so it may take a while for them to get the wheels moving but demand for materials and raw goods will be back and strong
I know that spot commodities don’t exactly equal companies net worth/earning etc.
But even on the previous weeks lows in commodity prices BHP was worth north of A$50 bucks a share… ASX
Hey ASS,
Just because they posted it on the 29th does not mean that it is new news. If you want the most up to date new go get ” The Fly on the Wall”. It does require some coin something you may not have because They don’t allow margin
I’m setting close stops, I don’t want to give yesterdays gains back
Scalping the energy sector first thing…hit and run trades… Gotta get back to cash, this white-knuckle shit is killin’ me!
TMOE
I dont have time for dickheads like you.
gotta go.
Covered my SKF shorts, I’ll reenter when she is ripe to be sold down the river once more.
DJIA gonna find new support @ 9k?
I know I cried this morning about Ass Napkin posting stuff from Realmoney. However, I thought this as intresting…..
Tony Crescenzi Blog
Trend in Durable Goods Orders Is Weak
By Tony Crescenzi
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/29/2008 9:30 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/tcrescenziblog/10444803.html
Orders for durable goods increased 0.8% in September, beating forecasts for a decrease of 1.1%. The prior month was revised downward, however, to show a 5.5% drop instead of 4.5%.
Excluding orders for transportation, durable goods orders fell 1.1%, beating forecasts for a decrease of 1.5%, but this was offset by a downward revision to August’s figure, which is now -4.1% instead of -3.0%. The widely watched figure on orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft was -1.4% for September, which follows a -2.2% figure for August. This key component, which serves as a gauge of capital spending, is up just 1.2% on a year-over-year basis, a very poor showing in light of hefty price increases that occurred in many durable goods, which depend heavily on raw materials such as primary metals.
Shipments of nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft, which are used as source data for GDP and which therefore carry implications for tomorrow’s GDP report, were up 2.0% in September following a 2.1% decrease in August.
For the quarter, shipments of nondefense goods ex-aircraft were slightly lower than the second-quarter average, signaling a flat or slightly lower reading for spending on equipment and software, which fell at a 5.0% pace in the second quarter, and 0.6% in the first quarter.
Spending on equipment and software has increased at a 7.0% pace over the past 15 years, underscoring current weakness, which is understandable in light of the weak pace of spending. Companies have little need to expand their productive capacity so long as demand is running below the combined rate of increase in both productivity and the labor force, which is close to about 3%. In other words, so long as demand for goods and services is below 3%, companies can meet demand through gains in productivity and labor
Bought 1K GCI 9.8…sellers never learn.
Who knows, we had massive gains yesterday. If I do anything today, it won’t be till right before or after the Fed makes their rate cut decision.
Fly,
Can you adjust blog filter so that TMOE can only post once a week? It seems this morning either he had way too much coffee or is simply having lots of uncontrollable brain farts. Either way…it loads the blog with useless shit.
Jimmy
Exactly
— The 800-pound gorilla in the room during discussions of the current bear market is the Great Depressio
Even days like Tuesday can’t completely scare that gorilla away. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU, , ) may have been up big, by 889 points in fact, turning in the sixth-biggest daily gain in Dow history. But four of the five days with even bigger percentage gains came between 1929 and 1932.
It’s easy to see why investors would want to avoid drawing any lessons from that era: Unlike other bear markets in U.S. history, from which the stock market tended to quickly recover, it apparently took more than two decades for the stock market to recover what it lost between 1929 and 1933.
In fact, it wasn’t until Nov. 23, 1954, that the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:$INDU, , ) closed above the level at which it closed on Sept. 3, 1929. That’s more than 25 years.
If the recovery from the last year’s bear market were to take the same length of time, the Dow wouldn’t again close above its all-time high from Oct. 9, 2007, of 14,164.53 until – you’d better sit down – Dec. 28, 2032.
That sure is an 800-pound gorilla.
I nevertheless think investors are needlessly scared. A proper read of history shows that it took the stock market far less time to recover than the Dow data suggest.
In fact, according to a chart published in “Stocks For The Long Run,” the classic book by Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, the inflation-adjusted total return index of the U.S. stock market was higher by 1936 or 1937 than it was at its pre-crash peak in 1929. That was just three or four years after the end of the 1929-1933 bear market, and less than eight years after the market’s 1929 pre-crash peak?
Why the big difference?
The first big factor is dividends. The market’s dividend yield was substantial during the 1930s. At the depths of the Great Depression, in fact, that yield was in the double digits Ignoring dividends, which is what investors unwittingly do when focusing on price alone, therefore introduces a significant pessimistic bias into any historical analysis.
Another factor is inflation. Or, to be more accurate, deflation. Believe it or not, the Consumer Price Index dropped by 27% between its 1929 peak and its low in 1933. A stock that dropped by less than this amount in nominal terms over this four-year period therefore actually turned a profit in inflation-adjusted terms.
Yet another reason why it took the Dow so long to surmount its 1929 peak: The decision in 1939 to delete International Business Machines (IBM: from the average. It wasn’t added back until years later. According to Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster, the Dow would today be more than twice its quoted level had IBM not been removed from the Average in 1939.
that’s right. if deflation caused the price level in the economy to fall by 27% between 1929 and 1932 than a stock falling 20% is still up.
For those predicting a deflation you need to show us how the general price level in the economy is going to fall. And the general price level doesn’t mean just house prices in Butt fuck Ohio by the way.
Somebody is using the T MOE
Ass Napkin: Short X?? WTF you talking about?
X has a PE of 2 (and I don’t give a fuck if earnings are going to go NEGATIVE in 2009).
Any company that has the market and manufacturing capacity to make $20 a share
over the past year is a stock that is going to 60 or 100 in the next two years.
Buy fuckin’ LEAPS on X!!
I sold my fucking DUG for a loss!
I had 2 losses in October … 1 very small, and 1 very large. But make no mistake, I will get it back.
BTW, Fuck You!
MS bought 500 shares 13.75…rumor based bear raid will fail again.
Hey Scully
What’s you pick on MS and GS for the day. I’m thinking of a quick short again and buying them back intra day.
Buying 1K MS @13
thanks.
wack day already, my lottery ticket IRIDQ up 100% @ 7x normal volume (not that it has much volume anyway, it’s pretty illiquid).
Not shorting anything j…just scalping maybe a swing. Bought a little MS…want more @ 13 as soon as this HF/MM gives up.
In ‘financials’, trade AXP, C and MS…not GS. But, we are putzing around here until the 50bp cut.
When/if the Dow clears 10,000 my finger will be hovering over the SELL button for the trading portion of my holdings – which is pretty full.
Gee I’m Lucky again. My gold/silver is going higher. It pays to be an imbisile. It is all in my market rubber band theory. Fuck time machines.
Scully
What are you looking for in MS as the top shot term?
My two liquidity/market tension markers;
Aussie and Euro/Yen ripping higher.
Hi Scully
Bought some MS and GS. If those two markers can make their way higher so can MS.
I need to get polished.
j,
Who knows? Define ST. Yesterday, for example, I had a big lot @ 10.94 avg — had to sell @ 14.5 (not the high). It could run to 20 easy by Friday but I’d most likely be long gone by then from these levels.
Thanks scully.
————–
Anyone seen the Dog this am? Dog you around? Stop lurking as I know you are.
Give me a bear story willya as i wanna tame down the bull side of me.
J,
the Dog is busy throwing some more paper shorts at APPL.
Completely off topic, yet still somewhat humorous:
Tales of Cranky Booksellers
http://www.boingboing.net/2008/10/24/tales-of-cranky-book.html
http://www.bookride.com/2008/10/yet-more-bastards-with-bookshops.html
Yes, I have done a few similar things when dealing with outrageous customers.
Back on topic: Staying long SLX.
That fractal pic is a trader’s brain on too much caffeine and coke. Instant green cauliflower!