Let the Riots Begin

I’m getting the fuck out of here—off to my local dentist, so that he may torture me.

Right or wrong, I am sticking with my present weightings, which is 50% long, 25% short (exclusive in oil) and 25% cash.

Fuck around, those silly bastards from Congress will eliminate mark to market accounting and send this bitch 1,000 points higher. If you notice, the market tends to trade with a bullish or bearish bias for only short periods of time. We get sharp drops, which last for 3-5days, followed by bear market squeezes.

The text book says, barring the country descending into civil unrest, we are due for a fucking rally. I know: “blasphemy.” However, rallies never announce themselves in advance. They sort of sneak up on you, when you least expect it, and blow your brains out, providing you are short.

Top picks: FXI, CHL, MT, BUCY, ACM, LNN YZC with bountiful oil shorts via DUG/ERY.

…so I am told by Dennis Kneale. Something tells me that little fucker was dropped on his head as a child.

Up here in NYC, the weather is Godly. However, much to my chagrin, I must ruin this gift, bestowed by Zeus himself, with a visit to my local dentist. I am sure he will go through great lengths to torture me, via his little hand tools, during my cleaning.

The market is very indecisive today, with only gold and silver stocks holding onto gains. As you know, I changed my mind on gold, at least temporarily, to a somewhat bullish opinion, based upon an obvious flight to quality.

Incidentally, gold is now the #1 ranked sector in The PPT. The top 5 ranked securities in gold are EGO, GG, AUY, KGC and IAG. Personally, I think gold/silver stocks are fucking ridiculous. If I wanted precious metal exposure, I’d just buy GLD or SLV.

As an aside, silver has lagged gold significantly. There might be some sort of arb play setting up between gold and silver. But, the whole gold/silver scene is far too “homofied” for me to get involved.

Basically, partly thanks to the inviting weather outside, I have done nothing, all day long. Early this morning, I had nice gains in BUCY, ACM, MT and JRJC. However, they have withered away to nothing. The only thing that has gained ground for me, all day long, are my oil shorts.

In short, as per the paraphrased words of the great Dennis Kneale, “let their be more bonuses for Wall Street. John Thain is a hero!”

UPDATE: My name is Joe Blow from “Fuck You, You’re Dead Holdings” and I have received $25 billion in TARP funds. My salary is $50 million and I have received $300 million in bonuses.

Good Day

Following yesterday’s bloodbath, asshole dip buyers are out and about ripping out offers, especially in the basic materials. On the back of okay numbers from MT and RTP/Chinalco partnership news, the sector is getting a lift.

Already, I am long MT, BUCY and YZC. In addition to those names, I like MTW, SCHN, BHP and NUE for a trade.

As for the banks: fuck them. I have zero interest in playing the upside or downside.

My sense, we get a bounce here. My favorite longs are Chinese related, specifically FXI, CHL and JRJC. And, I like LNN (big short position) and ACM too, which are, as a point in fact, entirely unrelated to China.

At the present, my only meaningful downside hedges are DUG/ERY. I will stay short oil until dead and buried in a fucking pineapple coffin.

NOTE: Ag stocks look strong here too. There I like MOS, CF and SYT. However, be careful with those fuckers. Should they reverse, they can eat 20% of your portfolio, faster than Cramer apologizes for making RIMM one of his “four horseman.”

NOTE II: Remember to frequent CRONKITE, if you desire such things like “news.” He is “Johnny on the Spot” with the news and has been doing a bang up job.

Here is an email that was sent to me from Mr. Woodshedder:

Woodshedder to me

show details 12:23 PM (20 hours ago)

Reply

fuck man. I am really scared about the market, man. I just packed up all my dry goods and took my guns to an old mountain village that I owns me a house at. I tooks alls my moneys out of the banks and dug a ditch under house and put it there. My best guess, looking at these here charts, the markets will crash tomorrow.

Back to packing up these here dry goods, lol.

Wood

– Show quoted text –

My response:

The Fly to Woodshedder

show details 12:25 PM (20 hours ago)

Reply

STFU

– Show quoted text –

Calm down people; it’s only the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. If today taught you anything, our government has no idea how to arrest the ongoing financial collapse. Public support has been eroded to the point where plumbers want to murder investment bankers, rightfully so.

All of my investment bank friends, who were making 2mill per annum a few years back, are dutifully unemployed now, with banks leaning on them and tow trucks repossessing their fancy cars, rightfully so.

As for me, I am one of the very select few who have benefited from this crisis, through various time machine trips, possessed by an overall sense of extreme pessimism. I feed off the hate. My business, despite not really giving a fuck, has flourished to the point where I reject new money, as if it was tainted with polio.

As for this tape:

It’s possible we will retest the lows. However, I get the sense there are too many people leaning short here. I rather stay long China, via FXI, CHL, JRJC and WX, with large and sizable short positions in big oil, via ERY and DUG.

Just a quick reminder: XOM is $30 rich.

Despite today’s meltdown, I only lost 3%, thanks in large part to my oil shorts (25% of assets) and 25% cash position. God willing, I will regain that 3% and more tomorrow. Also, for the most part, I am still up on all of my longs.

Longer term the country is in bad shape. I am hearing there will be a crisis in retail, in fairly short order. I will be taking on some new retail shorts, within a week.

Either way you slice it, the best shorts of 2009 will be found in commercial RE and oil. Stocks like ESS, MAC, KIM, SLG, BXP, FRT, XOM, CVX, NOV, CHK and RIG have significant downside left.

In other news, the fucking bastards from McGraw Hill dropped Barry Ritholtz’s book: Bailout Nation. Being the parent company of S&P, I am not surprised by their unprofessional conduct.

UPDATE: Barry opines on his ordeal with the fuckers from McGraw Hill.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erIs98Z5dn0&feature=related 450 300]

What a tool this guy (Geithner) is. Fuck it, I called it wrong. I did not think the market would cascade “on the news.” It was too anticipated and so cliche.

Anyway, we are in very dangerous territory now, with the S&P below 830. I am sure the chartists on iBC will confirm my fears of a possible total collapse.

So what the fuck am I doing long stocks?

I don’t really know.

Let’s take a looksy at my longs-

CHL -3.57%
YZC -7.26%
FXI -4.92%
MT -11.65%
BUCY -6.96%
ACM -flat
JRJC +4.47%
LNN -5.61%

On the short side, the only meaningful positions (25% of assets) worth mentioning are DUG +8.27% and ERY +13.08%.

All in all, it was a pretty horrid day; but it could have been worse. For one, I could have been “all in” long. Additionally, I have more than 25% in cash.

So, despite wanting to punch the fucking chest hairs off Geithner and all of the transvestites on CNBC, I will live to fight another day.

On a serious note: this country is rudderless. Obama is a joke and the democratic leadership are so green and so not ready for the limelight, it’s fucking embarrassing.

Tomorrow is another day.

Off to drink myself stupid.

UPDATE: The most frustrating aspect of not banking coin during today’s sell off is missing out on having the moral authority to make fun of Cramer and his stupid bullish thesis, or Kudlow and his fucking mustards seeds, or Leisman and Cabruso “fucking” Cabrera and their idiotic bullish pandering. Plus, I know it would have been cool to make fun of “Chivas” and other career bulls on iBankCoin.

Fuck!

Sure, all of you little bastards are shooting at “The Fly” today, despite not having the luxury of being short this decline. It’s easy to just sit there, all unemployed and shit, like the little punk that you are, talking shit from the discomfort of the third class lifestyle that you are so accustomed to.

Unlike many of you idiots, I am not a day trader. I am more of a swing trader, looking for 5-20 day moves, while exhibiting the utmost patience and discipline when investing. Understand the difference between you and I and never forget it.

I move in big convoys, heavily guarded, armed to the teeth, while you walk. Comparing “The Fly” to your own trading is sort of like comparing Barry Bonds’ head, pre and post steroids.

Boo-Hoo, I am losing money today. Hey pal, go fuck yourself. This isn’t the first and it won’t be the last time losing some coin in the market. The point of what I do here: when the dust settles and the clouds of cocaine subside, I win.

My victories are grande [sic], some might call them decadent. However, when they occur, you will know why they call me HORATIO CLAWHAMMER.

Into the close, I will add to my DUG positions and leave all longs intact.

NOTE: The PPT is registering its lowest ranking ever, at 2.19. The only silver lining: each time it hit the 2.20’s the market bottomed, temporarily at least. Do or die here, else we get “Tim’d” again.

UPDATE: I bought 3,000 ERY @ $34.85.

Once again, the motherfuckers from the Fed and Treasury are clown raping the market. To make matters worse, I have a net long book now, into the teeth of a steroid induced collapse.

All of our leaders are ball-less. One way or another, the market will be worth less than a package of napkins, inside of 6 months.

BEHOLD: I have long positions.

Once again, in true circus master form, I might be forced to trim down some of my longs and add to shorts.

Why?

Well, for one, it makes little sense to ride these bastards down. And two, I need to lower the volume on the volatility.

The market is always out to kill me. If I were to get all emo and shit, holding positions just because I thought they were cool, I would have been wiped out a long time ago. Without a doubt, the time to sell short KIM, MAC, ESS, FRT and SLG was yesterday. By chasing them lower now, after the fact, would be utterly fucktarded and plain ol’ vanilla gay.

My goal here is to not get net short and make a gazillion bucks. Instead, I will calm the fuck down, raise some cash, hedge up a little, then go eat a few sandwiches.

After all, every time we get these sharp moves lower, miraculously, the market seems to go up, shortly thereafter.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m7fyGQ_DpQ 450 300]