WHEN WILL THE CREDIT CRISIS HIT?!

I’m biased against credit because of soaring debt coupled with inflated housing values and soaring borrowing costs. The math does not add up, and I feeeeeel at some point we will have a credit event.

The market is sensing it. Look at shares of AMBC, PFSI, GS, C and countless other banks.

The only problem is: I can’t find any evidence of a pending disaster in any of the data.

Sure, US credit card debt has ballooned to record highs of $930b, but delinquencies are low.

CMBC delinquencies are at record lows. Unemployment rates are near record lows. People appear to be rich as fuck.

Mortgage delinquencies did rise for the first time in 9 months, with 97k early stage delinquencies. US foreclosures are +541% YOY mostly thanks to post pandemic laws being removed. Nevertheless, the numbers are small and you can only find doom in the numbers based upon a forecast, not actual reality.

What we will need to see that will support a housing crash and credit crisis is an uptick in unemployment, rise in credit, auto, and housing delinquencies — and crashing of bank stocks to distressed levels.

As of now, in spite of all of the craziness happening, Americans are holding on.

The false market you enjoyed during the month of March has given way to April — a month destined to rain fire and brimstone down upon the con-caved heads of the many. It was written a long time ago that Pax Americana was over, the era of the globalist shill destroyed and replaced with militarism. We are at the very beginning of the long wayward journey into Middle Earth. The only plot twist is, of course, we are the orcs.

I traded poorly and misread the commodity market. I thought the market heading lower meant commodities would go up. This turned out to be false and I took gains and quickly converted them to losses — shedding 98bps for the session — in spite of 15% weight in TZA. I kept that and added 10% into UVXY to go along with a few commodity stocks and 59% cash. My bias is ardently to the downside, with a price target for the S&P 500 of $00.00.

We shall swim lower with alacrity back down to the lows, and much much more. Just yesterday I read upon my Twitter feed some young lads decrying the market as being wonderful ‘heading back to RECORD HIGHS’ and today those lads are quiet — most likely RACKED with losses and in tears hiding in the bedroom closet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=km97T4A40no

You do — you fucks.

LNG shipments last year was 22b cubic meters and will ramp up to 30 billion inside a year, if not much more. By 2030 the WH is projecting exports of LNG to reach 50 billion cubic meters.

SIR —

The era of sub $5 natty is over. The American renaissance with cheap natural gas has finished. With LNG being ferried into the extremely profitable European markets — where those sons a bitches are accustomed to paying massively high NG prices — expect your monthly gas bills to skyrocket. This is the price to pay for freedom — you fucks.

Presently Natty is +6& for the session over $6, after EU banned coal. They have stated all energy products from Russia are on the chopping block. This trade is a fucking layup, regardless of day to day volatility. Natty and natural gas producers are going to bank coin.

Ways to play it

UNG, BOIL, SWN, CHK, SD, RRC, NEXT, LNG, FLNG etc

There are many more. The point here is higher natural gas prices, paid for by you fucks — forever.

We’ve had it good the past few weeks, but not today. Today we’re reverting back to the pre-rally days of bidless tapes. Even the commodity trade is under pressure — as all assets sans select REITs collapse into what seems to be a maelstrom of panic in the bond markets.

The US 10yr is over 2.55% and the curve is inverted like hell — yet bank stocks aren’t panicked lower and this selloff, although not helpful, is orderly.

The NASDAQ is down 287, led lower by semis off by 4%. I had hoped for safe haven in commodities but that too proved too risky for the allocatoors. I gave up my early gains of +70bps and now am lower by 50bps, with 58% cash and 15% of my holdings in TZA. My bias is, presently, to the downside — although I am reticent to suggest there is much more we could tank today. Tomorrow we can gather some fresh tomatoes into our faces; but to ask for more than 300 NASDAQs of selling in a single day is a bit much.

For the balance of the day I will keep monitoring the movers and after 2:30pm begin an allocation for tomorrow’s open. In hindsight, I should’ve sold everything at the open — but again fell victim to aspirational thinking. This is the malady I faced in much of second half 2021, always looking for more, always believing in the hype.

The truth is, it’s over.

The selling point for globalism was that if countries depending on one another they’d never wage war. If that’s the case, what’s happening with Russia is the exact opposite. The war in Ukraine appears to be the tipping point that separates the west irrevocably from Russia — cemented today with the first of many energy bans imported from Russia — starting with coal. In time, the EU will ban all Russian energy products and in turn — it seems — Russia will prohibit exportation of agricultural products.

Today’s headlines

This is all incredible bearish — seemingly the end to globalism as we know it. This of course isn’t priced in. At the same time, knowing how markets work, stocks will fight reality down to the last earnings report and there is no assurance we’ll correct in any meaningful manner any time soon. That said, one has to be bullish on American coal and LNG exports to China. There are several ways to play them, the most noteworthy is shipping and miners.

For longer term accounts, having a permanent allocation into ag, oils, and metals seems like a good idea. Even if the war ended tomorrow, the sanctions will still persist and the relations between Russia and the west ruined for at least a generation.

Truckers are down 11% the past week because they were ‘part and parcel’ of the commodity shipping trade — a trade that extended from intermodals to rails to ships — even some air freight. The idea was, scarcity of materials matched with peak demand equals high rates. While this trade worked alongside commodities, the exact opposite occurred in tech/retail and other ‘normal’ economy stocks. Surprisingly, the alt energy and solar stock sectors took off too, providing two areas of the market that could rally under any bias.

Here are the top Alt Energy stocks and Solar stocks in Stocklabs — ranked by technicals.

FREY, SLDP, PLUG, BE, GEVO

ALT ENERGY STOCKS ARE +15% THE PAST MONTH.

ENPH, SPWR, CSIQ, BEEM, RUN.

SOLAR STOCKS ARE UP 17% THE PAST MONTH.

See that? That proves that stocks like MOS, IPI and NTR are comparable with PLUG and ENPH as it pertains to this war trade. I did not expect this to happen when the war started; but I suppose the market is pricing in a green future for Europe. The market now, aside from those two areas, is binary. Either tech rallies or commodities — but not both.

On the pressing issue of collapse and when it will happen: soon.

We have just enjoyed a bear market rally. During all previous collapses I probably made just as much money, if not more, during oversold bounces. The trick about bear markets is not believing in the hype. Understand and accept this rally has an expiration date and when you begin to see it curdle — throw it away, lest you’l find yourself guzzling down spoiled milk with curds dripping off your chin — as Mother Market punches your fucking face loose.

You’re all a bunch of Eddy Barzoons clawing at each others faces in order to get ahead. You will do whatever it takes, bereft of composure and grace — because you were raised like barn animals. You drink too often, eat too much, suck too many dicks, and now you want people to die en masse. You root for the good guys, who are actually the bad guys, and take pleasure in the maladies of your so called enemies. You are darkness personified and eschew the light because it makes your eyes squint.

Cave dwelling pieces of shit.

I barely traded today — still made +62bps — PINNED TO RECORD HIGHS — and yet I don’t care. I feel no sense of accomplishment and do not feel special for being able to achieve something that even a child could do, if paying attention in earnest.

I work too hard, spend too many hours entrenched in an abstract world filled with malignant personas.

I have no opinions on the market other than to say the opinions of the people around me are revolting and make me sick. Perhaps I am having a bad day and I will feeeeeeel better in the morning. I am not seething or enraged, or even upset. I have a general taste of disdain in my mouth, the sort of bitter flavor you get when you bite into a lemon. I do not want to complain — because those are the provocations of emotional women. That comment was designed to trigger some of you so have at it.

Ok, I am leaving now — off to the gym — where I will race on the hamster wheel and lift dumbbells over and over again, in between rote sips of water and labored breaths.

I will admit it now — I am for nervous about where we are heading. The stock market has, for me, melted into the background as I pay attention to the actions of western leaders.

BIDEN SAYS PUTIN IS WAR CRIMINAL pic.twitter.com/A0nEhNjD2R

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 4, 2022

BIDEN SAYS HE IS CALLING FOR A WAR CRIME TRIAL

EGYPT HAS STRATEGIC WHEAT RESERVES SUFFICIENT FOR 2.6 MONTHS – CABINET SPOKESMAN

GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER LINDNER: THE EU MUST CUT ALL ECONOMIC TIES WITH RUSSIA AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BUT MUST TREAT GAS, OIL, AND COAL SEPARATELY.

Very soon we will be at war with Russia. This country is already properly ginned up and prepared to demonize Russia — and there isn’t any tolerance for opinions to the contrary. Those who do not tow this line with be destroyed and viewed as traitors. The idea we live in a free society is of course a lie — and the irony about that is — should you voice that opinion too readily — you will be destroyed.

The market is once again racing headlong into abject delusions, fantasies predicated by and for morons. I am 95% cash, 5% TZA — up 90bps for the session. I sold out in the morning because the intra-day traps have been palpable the past week and I’d rather not partake.

This is likely the biggest news to hit the tech world ever. For the first time that I can remember — a very wealthy (wealthiest) and seemingly independent minded billionaire who has challenged big tech’s liberally biased censorship by not only speaking out against it — but also taking a large monetary stake in it, vis a vis Musk buying a 9.2% stake in Twitter.

If you think he’s buying it for his kids — guess again.

I’m not naive and I understand Elon isn’t ‘one of the boys.’ Nevertheless it seems he is at least on the side of freedom of expression and views the policies enacted by Twitter as reviling. The ramifications of Musk taking a stake in Twitter will be profound, as far as making change on the platform, and all for the better — from an investment point of view. Shares of Twitter are up more than 20% on the session, but still off by 40% from record highs.

You will begin to hear of rumors of peace in the coming days — but DO NOT BE FOOLED, war will be continuous for the coming months and years.

On the issue of the yield curve — it’s totally trash now. The US 2yr now is inverted vs the 10 and 30yr, inverted as much as 13bps earlier this evening and now around 8bps. In short, it’s predicting doom for the general economy is about 9 months. Typically speaking, this is disastrous for banks.

NONETHELESS, expect stocks to trade HIGHER soon because we’re in a pocket of strength predicated on any news that can be viewed as bullish. We are most spoiled in the west and we enjoy good cuts of beef, the very best vegetables, and lots and lots of upward surging stocks.

You will expect stocks to trade lower because MUH war. But the wall of worry is being climbed and crazy people are at the wheel so enjoy the ride while it lasts.