Back to Square One

People fear the high price of gasoline will lead to demand destruction, which is why refinery related stocks are getting smashed. Being heavily invested in the sector, I’ve been clown raped in recent weeks. There is nothing to be upset over, since stocks trade on emotion, not reason. I expect the earnings to be spectacular. However, in the short term, it may not matter.

At the present, I am up 2% on my WNR position. Due to drawdowns in other stocks, like CVI, ALJ etc, my year to date gains are withering away, with no end in sight. My choices are clear: stick with my convictions and risk castration or lighten up for the sake of longevity. The potential downside will fucking vaporize my gains, AND MORE, setting me back months of hard work. In the big scheme of things, the money was NEVER MINE in the first place. I’ve made so much money over the last 5 years, it should be illegal.

At any rate, for those of you who cannot risk it all on a singular earnings announcement, my advice to you is “don’t.”

With summer around the corner and Bin Laden dead, enjoy your youth with excessive alcohol intake, whilst eating the finest foods this planet has to offer.

I sold out north of $116.

I know this is not a very apropos storyline, ahead of today’s “fuck you Osama, you’re dead” rally. However, the numbers are outrageous, when discussing the prospects of selling stocks in May. One of you little toilet bowl cleaners will fish out the data and post it in the comments section for the rest of us. In the meantime, I am going to walk around the office in my regal blue and gold cape.

This is first class blogging here pal, not that slave shit that you’re used to elsewhere.

With regards to stocks: they’re going up, with exception to silver. Maybe we need silver to trade lower in order to mass produce silver bullets. As you know, werewolves are out there, waiting for a full moon to appear so they could eat our faces.

At any rate, you are all very boring to me. Maybe I will visit some low end Hyundai dealerships today and haggle with idiot salesmen over prices, just for shits and giggles. I will go on test drives and claim the “the fucking steering wheel nearly came off. I want free floor mats with purchase and a 0.05% apr.”

Top picks: WNR and werewolves

Someone inform all of the troops abroad to go home now, for the war on terrorism is now over. Osama Bin Laden was shot and killed, hiding out in some decadent mansion, in Pakistan. That’s especially funny, since I figured he was in a cave all this time.

The time for false truths and half measures are over. The Dow Jones Industrial average will soar to God tomorrow, making all short sellers INSTANTLY bankrupt. This is a magical bullet, in the sense that it wins the military and financial wars on terror simultaneously, routing out short sellers as if they were logic at the heights of Puma Punku (as you know, logic does not exist there).

To celebrate this elaborate victory, I have ordered seven dozen funeral cakes with Bin Laden’s face on it. I shall throw a dinner party this Friday, where my guests will be served pieces of Osama’s face. We will eat the remains of Bin Laden and flourish in his aftermath, through outrageous stock market wins. We will make those who are short go into severe cardiac arrest, then eat their remains at a later date too.

In short, it is time to rejoice and BEHOLD the splendour [sic] of a Mr. Barry H. Obama, for he is the Winston Churchill of our generation.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liNT9M4kGe0 616 500]

I don’t trust what my computers are saying or what people on Twitter are elated about. But, apparently, silver is down 10% now, for no apparent reason other than the fact that Jp Morgan has a vested interest in seeing it trade down to zero.

Volume this week will be light. So, what better time to crush silver, as we approach the 1 year anniversary of THE FLASH CRASH, than now? I’ve concluded, long ago, that there is no rhyme or reason to these black swan events, just tipping points. Most of the time, said tipping points are behind the scenes, egregious events transpiring while you are asleep like a lamb in a warm barn. I will have you know, “The Fly” does not sleep and is always on-guard for such events. Moreover, he has 24/7 sentry service to monitor certain buildings on Wall Street, in order to keep tabs on certain executives. As you readily know, I’ve designed iBankCoin to include numerous voyeur weapons that allow me to track readers, even by remote accessing their iPhone cameras. In other words, I am watching all of you, all the time. Even when your phone is neatly packed inside of your pocket, iBC has an eyeball of sorts in said pocket.

The Grande Recursive Order of the Knights of the Lambda Calculus have instructed me to inform you to prepare for outrageous events this summer. In others words, this summer, as it should be, will be exceedingly hot.

Good Day.

One of my favorite nonsensical trades is the $100 roll. I’ve executed this trade countless times, with overwhelming success. Basically, I buy a stock just prior to it breaking the $100 barrier, in an attempt to capture a quick 5-6 point move. More often than not, as is the case with OXY today, the move can be much greater. In the era of the clam, investors clamour [sic] for high priced earnings per share monsters, like OXY or EMN.

At any rate, I am leaning towards buying both CLH and PH for my next roll plays. Which ones do you like (not that I care or anything)? I am simply making small talk. You should consider yourself exceedingly lucky.

1 CKH -8.59 3.30 99.28

3 CLH -1.79 2.74 98.55
4 WAT -18.67 2.70 97.94
5 MMM -1.50 3.95 97.45
6 CMP -18.78 2.94 97.42
7 SHG 2.07 4.43 97.41
8 BAP 43.43 3.93 97.23
9 ALXN 39.78 3.83 97.06
10 DE 0.67 3.02 96.92
11 EL -13.93 3.15 96.79
12 VNO -23.30 2.70 96.75
13 LH 40.88 3.86 96.30
14 VMW 11.42 2.83 95.94
15 CLB -4.35 2.42 95.82
16 FOSL 19.52 3.49 95.79
17 NBL -15.71 3.22 95.74
18 CLF 0.97 3.13 95.60
19 APD -0.76 3.94 95.58
20 FDX 0.00 3.99 95.45
21 ADS -2.69 3.98 94.99
22 PH 2.01 3.04 94.78
23 SAM -7.82 3.30 94.57
24 PPG 21.93 3.28 94.17
25 LUFK 28.21 3.50 93.68

I never get mad at stocks, only my bad decisions. Despite what your dog brains think, stocks do not know you are invested in them. The losses are never personal, only the jackass who made the decision. When I take hard draw downs in my investments, literally, I look at them without emotion. Wall street is not stupid for selling my stocks. It is what it is. Getting mad at stocks for being “stupid” is the very definition of amateur.

Here is what you need to know:

The money is not yours to begin with. The government has the power to take away from you at will. If you are investing your money like a clown fucking asshat, don’t get mad when you are separated from your digits. Your loss is someones gain, financial Darwinism.

The stock market, as it stands now, is the longest line of cocaine that has ever existed. Like the marvels at Puma Punku, it defies logic and reason. It makes the pyramids at Giza look like childs play. Thus far, I am up just 0.4% for the day, led by gains in WNR. Emphatically, I believe the refiners are one of the few spots worth investing into, not for trades. Some stocks are good trades, others are investments. My OXY is ripping tits. I am saddened to have sold 90% of my position the other day. However, I am elated that I sold 90% of my MWW position.

At the moment, I am digging ALJ, CVI and WNR, especially after the recent pullback.

Due to the recent decline in the refiners, you’ve all become experts on the industry, professing to know all there is about crack spreads and share price correlations. Well then, Sir dick facing ass fucker, let’s go over the actual facts and not conjecture, shall we?

Here are some composite seasonal statistics (monthly) for the refining industry, courtesy of The PPT:

March 4.95% 187 103 64% 36%
April 2.31% 171 114 60% 40%
May 2.55% 180 112 62% 38%
June -1.96% 119 172 41% 59%

In summary, I started buying the refiners in March, when seasonality was at its apex. During the month of April, I am up on both CVI and ALJ, while down 1% on WNR. As you can see by the irrefutable data above, selling this industry into May has been a losing trade, 62% of the time.

Specific to WNR, the month of May has been especially bountiful for shareholders, up 60% of the time for an average return of 10%. Compared to an average loss in April of 3.9%, I’d surmise the time to own WNR, based upon seasonal data, is in May.

Here is the May data for WNR, dating back to 2007:

2010: -1.87%
2009: +13%
2008: +26.7%
2007: +24%

As the market heads towards 14,000, my WNR is being ground in between the gears of hell. Some might say “oh, someone knows something, which is why it is trading lower.” That’s not true. Stocks go down for all sorts of reasons. Perhaps some junior trader at some fucked up hedge fund got chastised over buying WNR. The conversation went something like this:

Boss: What the fuck is this WNR shit? Jim Cramer said to sell the refiners and you are buying?
Junior Trader: But, Sir, “The Fly” is buying it and he is “awesome and amazing.”
Boss: Who the fuck is this Fly guy? All I know, refineries are a shitty business. I want it sold, NOW.
Junior Trader: But, Sir, we might take a loss on it. And, all of the other refiners are trading up today.
Boss: Who gives a shit, you faggot? Jim Cramer says sell I ask him how much? Sell it all or you’re fired.
Junior Trader: No problem.

That’s pretty much how a forced liquidation happens, which in turn makes a stock trade lower. Naturally, this is pulling for straws, making excuses for a stock trading down on a great day. However, I’ve seen this shit before and the selling of a specific name in a kick ass sector is rarely majestically prescient.

Back at it tomorrow.

For the day, I bled out another 1%, helped by VCLK, FORM, SHLD, OXY and CVI.

Incidentally, this disaster at home is a major boon for Mrs. Fly. Despite our intentions to not live in this house, she gets to do all sorts of renovations, making things new again “all shiny and beautiful.” I will have you know, white is quite fashionable these days, from what I hear. We have no intentions of selling this idiot box of a house. Instead, I intend to let it just linger here forever, making it a place to sleep in when we are visiting NYC. From my vantage point, unless one needs the money, one should not sell real estate. Wealth in real estate, from what I am told, is made through accumulation, not swapping.

I sold half of my PLAB, after it slid 3% from my basis. I have no desire to establish new losing positions. I will keep a short leash on non-essential positions.

Finally, the refiners look better today, save WNR. Give it some time; I am sure it will firm up as the day progresses.