Drastic Changes

This is breaking news of the obscene variety: for no reason at all, “The Fly” has given up drinking coffee, alcohol and high fat foods, in exchange for bitchass vitamins and water. I’ve been conducting this experiment over the past week and feel great. Furthermore, I’ve ramped up my exercise routine to 2 times per day and cut out the creatine.

Since I am a fanatic with just about anything that I do, there is no concern that I will fall off of this regiment. The wine will age and get better with time. And, frankly, coffee is overrated. Fuck you, I said it. The Keurig machine has been drained, cleaned and turned the fuck off.

Started a small position in BZH, buying 10,000, $3.41ish

Mrs. Fly likes to call things “super.” Whether it’s “super bad” or “super cool”, lo and behold, if given the opportunity to say the word “super”, she is there. If I might interject your daily bowl of oatmeal, I feel this tape is “super bullish” this morning. Considering the fact we should be down 1%+, this is super cool.

Hell, with CDS markets blowing out and the U.S. without leadership, the market is free to fall as far as it likes. But it chose to go up this morning. For that, I am super grateful.

Naturally, for a bounce, commodities is where it’s at. Names like OXY, COP, JOYG and MTW look good. The refiners are lagging. However, they tend to come out of left field with gains. If you really want to throw the dice, look at the finnies. The easiest way to play them is via FAS, RKH or XLF.

I’m not against raising cash here. However, I am very much opposed to selling short into the weekend. The euro people have to bail out Greece. If you want to short, you might as well wait until after that deal is announced and fade it. There will be a short squeeze, as many are leaning that way now.

These European leaders make Obama look competent. I cannot believe they are letting Greece snowball. Not only are Greek CDS blown out to idiotic proportions. But now we have Portuguese, Irish and Spanish CDS blowing out too. Don’t look now, but Italian CDS are about to blow past 200 bps.

Look, it’s very simple. There is no way to solve this crisis. The only choice for the ECB is to kick the can down the road and pray for a miracle. I realize kicking the can is something most people will poke fun at. But, this is real life and people always choose the path of least pain, like it or not. They are meeting this weekend and they better have a deal by Sunday, else this will be Lehman part 2, only worse.

These countries will fail, in turn fucking the banks to a degree that you bearshitters could only dream of doing. They all have sovereign exposure, in the 100’s of billions. A sovereign crisis will absolutely crush the stock market and ruin confidence, on a global scale. It might even spill over into South America, where debt loads are still very high.

So the choice is simple: paper over now and live to fight another day. Or, you will die.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t uneasy about this tape. Over the years, I’ve managed to cut back on my trading activity, opting for swing trades over day. There was a time when I’d execute 100+ trades in a day. However, that lifestyle wasn’t for me. Typically I execute 500 trades per month, most of which you see here. As of late, I’ve been almost stationary with my positions, selling some, buying others. But, for the most part, I’ve held my core together, since I believe they will melt higher, better than most stocks, should we go up.

The problem with sticking with positions is you start to build an emotional attachment to them, via rooting for them on a daily basis. Watching WNR or CLF down big is like throwing rocks at my head. I feel like I am missing out big time by just watching fuckers mint coin on the short side, while I wait for a turn. In the back of my mind, I keep thinking “what if we are on the other side of the mountain?”

What if?

Today’s nasty tape has me thinking maybe, just maybe, the Euro-fuckers will drop the ball. Essentially, I am relying on perverts at the IMF to bail them (the butt-fuckers) out, and by extension, me! This cannot be a cogent asset management strategy, relying on rapists and lazy olive eating stick throwers to pave my driveway in gold.

So, I have a few choices.

1. Sit here like a paradiddle and wait for something fabulous(no homo) to happen.
2. Start day trading like an ADD addled moron.
3. Go to cash. Reset.

While it’s true, I don’t mind living the paradiddle lifestyle, hanging around the yard, eating tomatoes off the vine. It’s a hedonistic way of living, whereby all I do is throw millions at good stocks and wait for “special shit” to happen. But, truth be told, I need to be a little more hands on.

The wait and see approach has worked, continuously, over the past three years. So, this paradiddle strategy is not exactly a negligent one.

Or, am I making a mountain out of a molehill? Case in point, we are flat for 2011. In 2010, the market was down 7.95% in May and -5.2% in June. Hell, everyone was declaring the market dead and “let the double dip begin.” But it didn’t quite happen, did it? In July of 2010, the S&P surged by 6.8%, retraced 4.5% in August, then exploded to the upside by 8.9% in September. And the rest was history.

In 2011, we lost 1.1% in May, following 4 consecutive months of gains. And, we are down 4.1% in June, so far. Frankly, looking at just the numbers, sans news, this is really nothing to shit the shower over. Should the next set of employment numbers kick ass, this market will rocketship higher in July, just like last year.

In the interim, Wall Street is about survival. Blind faith will not pay for the mindless shit Mrs. Fly needs to buy on a daily basis (no fear, since she NEVER reads the blog). Like I said earlier today, I am keeping everything, sans WNR, on a tight leash, in an effort to slow things down a bit. Swings of +4% or -2.5% is fucking retarded, especially when dealing with many millions of dollars.

Okay, I’ve decided to give this market one last chance to crush your bearshitting skulls all over the Wall Street bull. The Greek parliament is getting together tomorrow to form a newly minted/retarded government. Perhaps we might get some clarity on when they will accept handouts.

Remember, the market isn’t trading lower on fundies. The market is trading lower because the bailouts are taking too fucking long to materialize. We know they are coming, but when? In the interim, people are selling, eating clams, having the time of their lives. Look at Alphadawg, he is 100% cash on a beach somewhere, up 20% for the year. On the other hand, I am here, down 7%, waiting to exact revenge on the bastards who stole my money.

All of the things I planned for are nil and void, unless we get our swagger back. Sure, the refiners should kick severe ass this earning season, but off of what price points? I’ve been extremely patient with this tape because I am conditioned to be rewarded for my patience. In the big scheme of things, the market is flat for the year. We can either sink lower for the rest of the summer, then dump out in September. Or, we can surge from here.

Waiting 1-2 more days isn’t going to break my year. But it might make it.

I am down 2.4% intra-day; but we’re going lower. Yesterday’s rally was the crossroads to redemption or hell. Market participants chose the latter and they shall get what they deserve and more.

Do not be tricked by the idiot Greeks with sticks. The market is going lower due to a lack of confidence in the President, the Fed and every other asshole in between. As much as I would like to ride my race car over your faces, it appears I am tied to the tracks of a railroad, cartoon style, as some jackass races to cut my head off with his train.

My leash is now short. If I have to take losses, I will. I am willing to give this market a little more room, before I start selling. I need to see some sort of courage before the day ends. I will be watching closely.

The financial community is well aware of the “too big to fail” policies that dictated the 2008-2009 bailouts. However, that sort of mindset is far more pervasive than you may think. In NYC, crime statistics are fudged all the time, in order to show reductions in violent crimes. People are coerced to withhold charges, just so some dicksucking Captain can take credit for “kick ass” precinct stats.

The NYS school system practices fraud on a grand scale, passing kids to make Principals look good. The NYS Board of Regents found a shocking amount of students got exactly 65 (min. passing score) on their exams. Upon further examination, the grades were changed by teachers to give idiot kids passing grades.

So, the next time you faggots from the media decry the great crimes of Wall Street and how fucked the industry is due to bailouts, why don’t you take a look at the failing public education system instead? Perhaps if we targeted the root problem (education), future generations will not paper over these problems (social security) and instead try to fix them.

Because of the success of past generations, Americans have a sense of entitlement when it comes to winning. When we do not win, the very notion of failure is too great to accept, so we paper over. Asshats!

As for today’s tape: WOW, SHOCKER, there is inflation. If we reverse yesterday’s gains, prepare for an ugly as fuck tape. I will be patient with my positions, as I have been, and wait for the dip buyers to step in.

More later.

This one goes out to the Armageddon crowd. Keep it frosty.

For bounce week, I expect to see several days of gains in the market, effectively putting everyone in the meat grinder, both long and short. Nothing is ever easy. And, for the most part, the bears have had their way for the past 6 weeks. It’s time for them to lose some sleep and digit in their bullshit brokerage accounts.

The initial pop will be found in extreme oversold stocks, like Chinese burritos and many of the names (JCP) that I’ve highlighted here over the past few days. Then we will move on to big industrial and stocks with large short positions. You should look towards names with large short positions, coming off the 200 day, approaching the 50. After that initial spike, should we continue higher, look towards names approaching the 20.

Let it be known, another day like today and The PPT will be overbought again. So, from my standpoint, I’d like to see a tepid tape tomorrow, followed by a BROKEN ROBOT, rip your head off Thursday and Friday.

For the day, I was up 4.1%