I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t uneasy about this tape. Over the years, I’ve managed to cut back on my trading activity, opting for swing trades over day. There was a time when I’d execute 100+ trades in a day. However, that lifestyle wasn’t for me. Typically I execute 500 trades per month, most of which you see here. As of late, I’ve been almost stationary with my positions, selling some, buying others. But, for the most part, I’ve held my core together, since I believe they will melt higher, better than most stocks, should we go up.
The problem with sticking with positions is you start to build an emotional attachment to them, via rooting for them on a daily basis. Watching WNR or CLF down big is like throwing rocks at my head. I feel like I am missing out big time by just watching fuckers mint coin on the short side, while I wait for a turn. In the back of my mind, I keep thinking “what if we are on the other side of the mountain?”
What if?
Today’s nasty tape has me thinking maybe, just maybe, the Euro-fuckers will drop the ball. Essentially, I am relying on perverts at the IMF to bail them (the butt-fuckers) out, and by extension, me! This cannot be a cogent asset management strategy, relying on rapists and lazy olive eating stick throwers to pave my driveway in gold.
So, I have a few choices.
1. Sit here like a paradiddle and wait for something fabulous(no homo) to happen.
2. Start day trading like an ADD addled moron.
3. Go to cash. Reset.
While it’s true, I don’t mind living the paradiddle lifestyle, hanging around the yard, eating tomatoes off the vine. It’s a hedonistic way of living, whereby all I do is throw millions at good stocks and wait for “special shit” to happen. But, truth be told, I need to be a little more hands on.
The wait and see approach has worked, continuously, over the past three years. So, this paradiddle strategy is not exactly a negligent one.
Or, am I making a mountain out of a molehill? Case in point, we are flat for 2011. In 2010, the market was down 7.95% in May and -5.2% in June. Hell, everyone was declaring the market dead and “let the double dip begin.” But it didn’t quite happen, did it? In July of 2010, the S&P surged by 6.8%, retraced 4.5% in August, then exploded to the upside by 8.9% in September. And the rest was history.
In 2011, we lost 1.1% in May, following 4 consecutive months of gains. And, we are down 4.1% in June, so far. Frankly, looking at just the numbers, sans news, this is really nothing to shit the shower over. Should the next set of employment numbers kick ass, this market will rocketship higher in July, just like last year.
In the interim, Wall Street is about survival. Blind faith will not pay for the mindless shit Mrs. Fly needs to buy on a daily basis (no fear, since she NEVER reads the blog). Like I said earlier today, I am keeping everything, sans WNR, on a tight leash, in an effort to slow things down a bit. Swings of +4% or -2.5% is fucking retarded, especially when dealing with many millions of dollars.
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First, but I regret to say that it may be the last.
Fly, can I borrow 75K?
I will repay you in tigers blood at 15K per year for 6 years.
no
Figured as much. Let us see what the bank says tomorrow.
What happened?
Never went to bank. Looked over numbers and can not afford it. Parents paid 112 for college and now want 20k a year till 80 k.
can not afford that + 300k mortgage
From Capital Cities Asset Management:
Health Care and Consumer Staples remain first and second in our sector rankings. They should be able to keep their positions at or near the top as long as investors remain nervous and jittery about the market. Utilities and Telecommunications hold the third and fourth spots, although they swapped positions since last week. The four leading sectors have somehow managed to keep their intermediate-term trends in positive territory throughout this recent mess.
Moving down the list, there is a large drop off in performance after Telecommunications as we find Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials in a near three-way tie for the leadership of the underperformers – otherwise known as fifth place. Industrials and Technology switched places while losing momentum over the past week. Financials still have the lock on last place and have the dubious distinction of being the worst overall major category of the 32 we track
They are recommending loading into staples , after staples have outperformed for 3 months? What kind of strategy is that?
http://tinyurl.com/3qqfsl7
The ratio of allocation in XLP , over XLY discretionary stocks, is at a dangerous extreme here.
I think i’ve seen this analyst group on TV before:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rmUZQrvF5o
I think we need to see three things before we can get a solid bottom and move higher:
1) The Euro debt issue moved back to the level of “annoyance” from the current level of “imminent catastrophe”
2) The US to get a debt ceiling/debt reduction plan in place without playing brinkmanship and driving the bond market into an epileptic fit
3) 2Q earnings and forward looking guidance coupled with another month of economic data
If we get through all that in say late July then we may see the set up for a great rally. For myself I have gains and I have done nothing in six weeks except fight a gun battle with every position I have traded. So I am in cash and taking the alphadawg approach till the dust settles. I can hurt myself more than I can help myself in this market.
I can play a paradiddle (“a quick succession of drumbeats slower than a roll and alternating left- and right-hand strokes in a typical L-R-L-L, R-L-R-R pattern”) but I wouldn’t call it a lifestyle.
I didn’t follow you in to the WNR trade because it was too complex for me (in which case, with all due respect, it was too complex for you or anyone else on this here blog-o-clusterfuck as well) but I do think if you can take the pain and ride that position for another 6 months or more you’ll get your payday.
Even so I share your pain. The FAZmobile is going strong but not enough to compensate for the homo-raping of the rest of my positions. These are the days that try men’s souls, or something. It just sucks out there. Free waxings for all, until we all resemble dolphins.
I will say this: you can’t go wrong being “a little more hands-on” about minding your carrots..and your tomatoes. Bow-tie Jim may not lead us to the Promised Land, but he won’t lead you into temptation and destruction either.
Gold. Gardens. Guns. God. Get it tattooed on your fat finger and read it 100x a day until it sinks in. Everything between here and the day when the Republic falls apart and China drinks our milkshake is just a fandango (pointy shoes, top hats and Hendry-horas optional).
So sayeth the leech-man.
As you were.
Gold. Gardens. Guns. God. I can remember that. Good idea. Thanks.
WNR looks in my opinion to have set a ROCK SOLID bottom at 15, but frankly this is simply TA bullshite, the truth is this co is minting coin off the obscene-likeasaudioilsheikh-level of crack spread. In the end huge profits translate into higher stock prices. If you think the ‘butt-fuckers wont be bailed out you ON the ‘crack’ more than WNR’s $spread. The EU will have no choice but to bail them out, and the only casualty will be there BS currency, which will still outshine the even more pathetic dollar thnx to the raucously irresponsibility of the us Govt…
Of course just my opinion, but I have put my moolah where my mouth is and am long WNR
Did you know there is something called a paradiddle-diddle? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_cmBLWPzm8
I think you should employ this technique.
WHERE IS TEAHOUSE – THOSE GAY BRUINS WON THE STANLEY CUP LOL
WHERE IS REINDEER – YOU ARE A CHINCHILLA BABY
BOSTON – STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS
Right Here!
Duck Boats on Reserve !!!
I am happy to see them win again after 39 years. They played awesome!
This chinch has rabies!!
LOL, you are a good sport and funny!
My daughter’s chinchilla died yesterday if that means anything.
Shameful. At least this year the winner wasn’t based in a desert.
Next year the Wings will claim your souls. We will continue to recruit directly from the frozen north lands of Europe.
The application will contain just one question: “As a child, how many hours per day did you spend skating on frozen lakes in northern Finland?”
If you answer “Where’s Finland?” you will be promptly told to get the fuck out.
T.I.G THOMAS IS GOD
J.I.G JOSE IS GOLD
I LOVE THE FLY
I’ve followed you since the orange blogspot Cramer alert days. I’ve found that you’re always right with your major market calls. I’ve taken opposing sides before and lost. Without hesitation I covered my shorts today.
http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=m_iKg7nutNY
I’m still long in less capacity though. I got scared out of shit today despite my signals being there. Something does not feel right. We should’ve bounced earlier than this and todays action seemed very out of whack. Expected a higher range consolidation not a break to new lows on some indexes.
I could be wrong though and just being a pussy. I’m fighting my inner puss this past week and a half.
You people need to stop pretending that any of this shit makes sense. We left chart patterns, rationality, and fundamentals in the dust somewhere around 2004, when oil supply topped out and refused to move any higher, despite a tripling (and then some) of oil prices.
Get it through your thick skulls: Every dollar of GDP that was ever created was generated on the back of cheap fossil fuels. Period. When fossil fuels are no longer cheap or abundant, and supply stops increasing, then the music stops, because it’s impossible to replace them at scale, and in the time remaining. All we’ve seen since 2004 is a frantic shuffle to find a seat, plus the creation of a few holographic new ones that you can’t actually sit in. By 2012, maybe 2013, those who aren’t still snoozing will realize that the number of seats is actually declining and the days of Growth are over. By 2025 all fossil fuels (78% of the world’s primary energy supply) will be in decline. By that time, everyone will have forgotten about the market and it will be a mad scramble for the bunkers. Get prepared or get steamrolled. It’s really quite simple.
Horseshit
Makes an excellent fertilizer!
for me to poop on
vigorously with a bottle of rum in hand and hemroidal cream in the other
We’ve been hearing this shit since the 70’s.
Still hasn’t happened yet.
No one knows when the peak is going to be. The sooner you accept that, the sooner you’ll stop calling for the end of the industrialized world.
Forget the 70’s… this “energy peter out” call had been being made since Bard the Vinaker cried out about the depletion of good firewood from Sherwood Forest:
Aye! Aye! Soon we shall all be ascramble for the very kindling twigs o’ the earth to light our cookfires!
___________
Like Easter Island? Aztec’s? Tibet?
I care nary a whit that worries about energy supply have surfaced before. I know my data, and the data we have today is quite comprehensive, more so than was ever the case in the past. The picture it paints is quite clear. Those who deny it’s a problem never have any data to support their argument, but they don’t need any, because they’re subscribing to a religion.
Malthus has been wrong for over 200 years, and yet he too will eventually be proven right.
Read the book “The Prize” about the history of the oil industry. It is discussed that fears of running out of oil took place about a year after Col. Drake hit the first gusher in Pennsylvania.
There is a catch. We are running out of CHEAP oil. There is plenty of oil in hard to reach places as evidenced by XOM’s huge find this week.
Jeff Vinik and Jim Cramer both threw in the towel when they realized the market changed in 2000. Vinik came back when conditions were suited to his abilities while Cramer never returned bc he knew that his success was the result of his wife and guys like Matt, Jeff and Todd-o – not his ability to trade like a space alien magician. My sense is that you are not the latter…
Who are you to judge?
Not judging however your time machine ain’t working like it used to for the last nine years….what other proof do you need? Your failure to have a big start to the year is unusual and you loaded up on commodity stocks just as the Dollar reversed course which led to your current underperformance.
Real Men don’t have to say No Homo. Just ask Cam !! He don’t say that shit nomore and he started it lol. Good luck managing your losses and hope you can dig you way out of it. Peace
If the Fly hadn’t just said it, I would say that saying “no homo” is about as gay and truthful as saying “no inflation”.
Chris, I bet your the smart ass on campus who has his nose broken on the locker and cries to mama. You puss.
Hahahah Oh man internet tough guy. Watch out lol.
I bet you grease your hair and have honker of a nose that got broken you sarcastic coward. Your “escalated threat” shows you to be a city slicker bisexual. I don’t talk about things, I put shit-heads in their place.
Fly
Don’t forget that the Sept rip last year was courtesy of the Fed and QE2 initiation. This is a headwind this go around instead of a tailwind.
I really don’t like the market here. Remain short the Euro via EUO. Euro goes to 1.20 IMO. Still hedged short but nervous as we near 1250 on the SPX. If the bulls can’t defend this look out below.
Oh shit… quit worrying about it…
You’re not the first kiddie to mistake a dog turd for a Snickers bar!
Heavily oversold markets are bull traps… cool it and wait….
ergo…. option 3, idiot!
no offense
Mr fly
greeks are most famous for goat fucking and less for their stick throwing talents.
Just FYI
I agree that it’s not the drawdown – I can easily rationalize the losses or cut them at any time for some miniscule pain, but the real pain comes from knowing good and well we should be rejoicing for being on the short side right now.
I’m heavily long and think we at least drop to 1250, test 200dma, and uptrend. Only hope the a-hole dip buyers start showing up or we’re in for another fall 2007.
the yield curve and business investment numbers of late 07/early 08 = the unemployment and small business growth of 11/12.
while its nice to “have balls” in trading or investing its also wise to preserve capital and protect gains. have been ultra long since 09, have been ultra short since tuesday.
“I have seen the future… and it has lower stock prices in it.” -The Fly
—
Isn’t that supposed to change when you’re bullish to “higher stock prices”?
i’ve thought about that also
FUCK EVERYONE ON THIS THREAD
I agree. It’s like a WAL$TREETPRO2 video.
Funniest comment ever. This needs to be on FIRE!!!
Agreud
It is exactly this kind of open honesty in the face of adversity that makes the exclamation “FIG” so appropriate. Kudos to you Le Fly
Truth…and last summer, that was the evil clam that messed up my beautiful sell off. He is weak now and I drink his juice.
“Blind faith will not pay for the mindless shit Mrs. Fly needs to buy on a daily basis (no fear, since she NEVER reads the blog).”
Fly, you rule… this sort of thought crosses my mind all the time, as Ms Slim does this too.
Until the players change, the game remains the same.
Fed is going to screw the shorts on friday with option expiration.
“3. Go to cash. Reset.”
Option number three is a tough one.
Trick is to figure out how going to cash and pressing the reset button is at least as much fun and potentially as rewarding as diving in after stocks. Maybe cashing out, accepting a three month horizon, collaring the market and placing some one directional option “bets” makes sense. Spend 3%, conclude that the 10% limit has been reached, while keeping your hand in the game and spending some time pondering the mysterious circuitry hidden behind the reset button?
Not trying to promote spending hard earned cash on time value, but the exchange traded multiplier funds are a more expensive option, and VIX/VXX might not correlate to research.
There could be a “we-killed-Qaddafi” rally. ;~}
So the Euro is getting crushed, but some Opec dudes want to get paid in Euros? Does that make any sense?
Shits the same all the time, bitches crying the world will end tomorrow everyday type shit. Hold based on the thesis and fundies of your picks and the pieces will come together more often than not. Endure some short term pain, make sure your points remain valid and quit shitting your pants. Short term timing is too hard, retail shits lose all 200 dollars of their life savings selling bottoms when they are most scared and they should be adding the pop can money they got for the month.
This happened last summer, I was getting smoked, then through sept into new year i was wiping with 100’s again…
I’m reaching the conclusion that fundies don’t mean jack anymore. The whole rally since 08 has been orchestrated and staged by the machinations of the Bernank. As far as I can see, none of it has been real, based in actual business fact.
Ms Leechman above is closer to the truth than many seem to think.
Yen above 80, and AUD above 105. If bears break either one, maybe I’d respect this bear bleitzcreg more. Wait til oil and copper rip tits over next two days…we going higher.
I would be comfortable buying SLB, HAL, BHI right here. That being the case they are most likely headed lower. Comfort never = bottom.
Purchases today could provide big-dicked gains over the next 12 – 18 months. But perhaps puchases a month or 2 from now will provide John Holmes type gains.
john holmes gains are happy
amen. up and down, in a typical day, more than my father made in the 18 years I was living under his roof. Its a wild ride, plain and simple. One thinks of buying a house, tries to not make a bad choice on one, get a fair deal thats a decent buy. is up or down MORE than its value on 2/5 days a week. weird.
its pointless, it doesn’t help society one bit, its a zero sum and all of that. but i am not sure any other occupation is quite as bizzare as this one.
About those Euro-fuckers:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-affirms-strong-vigilance-againt-inflation-2011-06-16
austerity all over the place. debt has gone too high (as is yours in the USA) and there is not much one can do about it. Printing money doesn’t solve anything, more spending does (via higher production and income). But that will obviously take some time.
@Fly – great post as usual. Thanks.
WTF? Why is CNBS covering some bullshit Macy’s retail employee strike?
What next? Are they going to cover a buggy whip manufacturing acquisition?
Good looking chipee they sent out to cover the story, though.
__________